I agree that both offenses could potentially be explosive, but I still have no idea how you're so confident about the ND defense. If the teams were playing towards the end of the season, they might have execution issues straightened out. But by the second game? I'll believe it when I see it.
I would move to Las Vegas tomorrow.
Edit: This post was meant as a response to the ND fans' predictions.
It's funny to hear you to say let's wait and see them play on the field, because I think that's what most people on this board would like. The problem is, we are getting bombarded by the Irish hype machine. All we hear is how ND and BK are gonna crush UofM and everyone else beginning in year one of BK's reign. The article linked by the OP is a perfect example.
FWIW, you took shots at UofM's defense (82nd ranked), but you didn't mention the fact that Cincy's defense (after 3yrs of BK) wasn't much better (67th) and ND's was actually worse (86th). ND's defense was so bad last year that you lost to us despite having the 8th ranked offense in the country.
It also is difficult to see how ND's offense, with your signicant losses (QB, WR and OL) and your switch to a new system, will be better than it was last year (8th ranked). As a point of reference, Cincy's offense (again after 3 yrs of BK) was ranked 11th. On the other hand, UofM's offense should be better this year, if for no other reason than we will not be playing freshmen at QB. It is hard to come up with a single logical reason why our offense should be worse.
So, on paper, this year's game looks like it should be similar to last year's game, more or less a shootout between two teams with suspect defenses. It certainly doesn't look like either team should count it as an automatic win.
About every 3-5 years we hear about how this ND coach is going to turn things around a turn the Irish into a machine. At this point it just goes in one ear and out the other.
I actually agree with you, as an ND fan and as excited as I am about Kelly, I really am ready to see it on the field before I buy it hook, line, and sinker. Even Weis (first two years) and Willingham (first year) had initial success. I'm not ready to make any bold predictions about 10 wins or beating USC but I do think we will beat Michigan. Mainly as I've discussed at length, I like the matchup with our highly talented skill position players versus a weak and unproven Michigan secondary. I also think our defense will have improved much more than Michigan's.
Posters above mine mentioned how Michigan was going to kick Notre Dame's ass this year so I just thought I would offer my take on things. Also, living in the Detroit area and being friends with many Michigan fans I have heard that Michigan will beat ND so I think it goes both ways. I agree if you think one team is definitely going to win you are going out on a limb, which I am did before.
I could offer you more evidence that I think Kelly's offense is more conducive to scoring points (Weis' offense had the tendency to stall, see the Navy game, 3rd quarter Michigan), we had many coaching problems (awful defensive coordinator, many technique issues with WRs, horrible offensive line coaching led to lack of development of OL) that I think the new staff will address, and our defensive players are finally playing a scheme that they were recruited to play. Cincinnati had to replace 10 starters on defense and was on the field due to the Cincy offense having one of the lowest TOP in the country, so I think being ranked 67th is pretty impressive.
I do think the Michigan offense will be just as good, I think Michigan's defense will be slightly improved, I think the ND offense will play well enough to win, and I think the ND defense will take major steps forward. I've cited my evidence, which obviously isn't the be all end all, but neither is yours.
You haven't cited any evidence. Every one of your assertions begin with "I think" and that is all the evidence you provide. And, FWIW, the fact that you think Cincy's defense being ranked 67th in BK's third year is "pretty impressive" is shocking (and sad). The fact that they could win the Big East with a defense that bad is evidence how weak the Big East truly is. But I'm happy it works for you guys in South Bend.
The 67th overall defense with 10! new starters, forced to be on the field more than any other FBS team, with MAC level talent, in a coordinator's first year in a new scheme (they switched from the 4-3 to 3-4 in Kelly's last year at Cincy and brought in Diaco) might not blow you away, but it certainly is a hell of a lot more impressive than Michigan finishing 82nd in overall defense with a first round pick (and best player in the conference) and Big 10 level talent.
I'm very happy to see how it works out for you guys!
Do you think it's possible that he said the running game was the strength for any reason other than the running game is good?
Maybe he is trying to inspire the RB's and O-line. Maybe he is trying to put a spark in the passing game to be better. Maybe the running game is the strength bc the passing game sucks as it's trying to pick up a new system with a new QB. I hardly see BK saying the running game was the strongest part in the spring game as a sign that Michigan can't stop Floyd/Rudolph AND the running game. I'll believe ND's running game is legit when I see it and not when "I have a motive to say so" BK says so.
I do think he has an agenda saying that, but as an ND fan I also think the running backs who are very experienced and a veteran (for the most part) o-line are ahead of the WRs and QBs. Allen is a very solid RB and Chris Stewart and Trevor Robinson are both very experienced OL that should excel in run blocking.
Thats what happens when you have MAC caliber players on D.
I did watch the Sugar Bowl last year and I really wasn't that surpised. When you face one of the top 5 most talented teams in all of college football (maybe the most talented), and you have MAC caliber players, it shouldn't be a close game.
All of ND's projected starters save one on defense were 4 star recruits or better. Their backups are almost all 4 star recruits or better. Tenuta was an abomination as a DC, probably the biggest reason Weis was fired. If he had left Corwin Brown as DC he probably would still be coaching the Irish (although I think his other shortcomings would catch up to him sooner rather than later).
I'm very optimistic ND's defense will be much improved.
ND has had a ton of great recruits for years, it doesn't mean that much if they can't get the job done. Last year, M had as many 5 stars as 3 stars in their from 7 (one of each) and it wasn't that good. Similarly, our 4 star starting safety wasn't as good as our walk-on starting safety. Obviously you'd rather have a defense of all 4 stars than a defense of all 3's, but most of those 4 stars were there for you last year on D, and they weren't very good.
Again the coaching and the scheme are the other factors that need to be weighed into this. Ethan Johnson is a classic 3-4 defensive end, he was playing 4-3 DT last year. Brian Smith is a 3-4 OLB, but was forced to play 4-3 MLB, where he was pretty awful. Darius Fleming is a 3-4 OLB but was forced to play DE, as was Kerry Neal. The entire secondary was a trainwreck. I don't think the experts were that wrong that they just happened to miss on all 11+ players that played significant minutes for ND last year on D and were also highly rated.
ND also had little continuity from year to year. In 2007 Corwin was coordinator and ND played a 3-4. In 2008, John Tenuta was brought in and ND played a hybrid 4-3/3-4. In 2009 Tenuta took the reins from Corwin calling D plays and ND was a 4-3. Corwin is a 3-4 guy, coached for the Jets in the NFL, and his coaching style with the DBs did not mesh with Tenutas (who basically blitzed his brains out).
Finally returning to a 3-4 (where many of the players played in HS and as FROSH) will be a breath of fresh air. As will having all four defensive coaches on the same page unlike the last few years.
nicely said
missing what is driving the skepticism from Michigan fans about how smooth the ND coaching transition will be. It's not the sea change at head coach, or in the offense, where probably something can be patched together, but rather the transition at defensive coordinator. ND is going to have a tough year on defense, where wholesale coaching changes are more difficult to pull off. Michigan fans know all about that.
I think ND fans have a bit of experience when it comes to coaching changes. 3 defensive scheme changes in the past 4 years, 3 different DCs in the past 3 years and recently the 2 different wholesale staff changes you mentioned, you can easily tack willingham and davie on to that as well. ND fans are pretty well versed
Right, and your defense during these changes has been consistently terrible. Why do you expect that yet ANOTHER change will IMMEDIATELY produce results? After 2-3 years, you might very well have the #1 defense in the country, but even successful Big East coaches who have won pretty much everywhere they have been and bring talented staff members with them can struggle. See: Wolverines, Michigan circa 2008-2009.
ND's 2008 defense was not terrible, and was actually pretty good. Go read this #47
Fair enough, but I wouldn't exactly call that a great defense. It was slightly above average. They also weren't able to hold it together against teams like UNC, Pitt, and USC who actually have a pulse. They contained Hawaii pretty well, but I think a lot of people suspected Hawaii may have been overrated. Still, I'll conceed there.
Notre Dame might not be the worst defense in the country, but I'd say its less than 50% odds that they'll be dominating right out of the gate. There are simply too many question marks, and even with the enormous amounts of success Kelly and his staff have had elsewhere, transitions are transitions.
Michigan is in their third year under a coach who had previously been very successful at all of his earlier jobs. Brian Kelly from a resume point of view is Rich Rodriguez part II. Notre Dame might be more poised to make the change, and its probably less of a change in philosophy than what Michigan has undergone, but there are still so many question marks that the Irish need to address. If I'm not mistaken, 4 of your 5 offensive linemen will be new. Offensive line is a unit that needs cohesion, and complicated by the fact that they'll be learning new schemes they could conceivably be quite rusty by the Michigan game.
You have a lot of talent on your team, that's very true. But much of it is unproven, just like Michigan's team. The advantage Michigan has is that it is their third year in the system and Rodriguez is playing to save his job. Regardless of my affiliations, I think the edge clearly goes to the wolverines. It's not a slam dunk--not even close. But I'd say the odds are in Michigan's favor.
*When you have MAC caliber players playing Florida
MD's players
... you would think the Domers would be a little cautious before announcing their impending domination of college football. I almost feel sorry for BK. He has yet to coach a single game and the expectations are already reaching an absurd level.
this is proof of that.
i hate to say this, but i think Rockne makes valid points.
did 5* Chad Henne play well for a freshmen? yes. did he have very good talent around him? yes.
With 5* Crist you have a 3rd year back up QB, with 3 years of experience in college, football practices, and weight training. you have a very comparable WR to Braylon Edwards in Michael Floyd, and some other very good highly recruited options at WR depth. Crist's RB is proven and very good. What I'm skeptical about is their OL situation with their seniors leaving.
Kelly will ready the quick passing game to alleviate the pressure from our strength in the front 7 and attack our weak secondary.
the questions in the secondary, special teams, and RB for Michigan have me uncertain about the outcome of this game. Michigan wins if the weak spots come to play that day.
There are so many analogies in this thread I can't keep them all straight, but none of them are all that good. Many of your similarities with Henne and Crist are legit. However, not all 5 star QB's are like Henne. Also, with the Henne situation, we were in the middle of a long run by a coach, and almost all of the players around Henne were moee talented than ND's, but more importantly had played in the same offense their entire careers. Also, Henne had a very good defense helping him out, I don't know if he would have done as well without that.
agreed. i guess the only thing that worries me is what will happen when Kelly throws out 4 and 5 wide vs our secondary and passes to set up the run?
if Michigan can somehow contain the ND passing attack and match their intensity then i think Michigan wins. if not, it could make for a long day and another nail biter in this back and forth series.
Hopefully if he decides to throw out 4 and 5 wide sets, we will find a way to consistently put pressure on the quarterback. Oh, Brandon Graham, how I miss you. Martin, Campbell, Van Bergen, and Roh just might be able to make up for him with some help from the backups.
if you mean by bringing severe penalties on them for cheating, just maybe.