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Note for the other 8641 prediction threads before Sep

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:25 PM
#1
Ziff72
Joined: 07/07/2008
MGoPoints: 5147
Note for the other 8641 prediction threads before Sep

After browsing thru the Deinhart prediction thread, I think there is something worth pointing out.   I know everyone knows we have 2 divisions now, but I think it is going to take time for people to understand we no longer have to have a better record than OSU and Wis to win the Big Ten. 

We need to understand that we are in essentially a 6 team conference.  I have been "Captain Optimism" about 2011 for 2 years now and I will consider Hoke's 1st year a pretty big downer if we are not playing a rematch against OSU in the BTC Game.   Consider "our" conference next year.

Nebraska is welcomed to the Big Ten with a pretty brutal schedule next year and we play them at home.  MSU also has a brutal early schedule.  The other upper tier team in our conference is Iowa who I think is going to be in for some hard times this year.  They lose a ton and have to break in a new qb, they are not a "reloading" type team.   They get a break on the schedule, but I still don't see them as very good next year.

This thing is wide open for us.  I think our side of the divisions will submit a team with 2 losses in conference and probably use a tiebreaker, but it is wide open.   We can win this conference next year. 

Just remember that in the back of your head when you start thinking about our prospects for next year.

  

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:26 PM | I predict there will be more (Score:1)
dvlfnfv5
Joined: 10/07/2010
MGoPoints: 345

I predict there will be more than 8641 prediction threads before September.

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:44 PM | Indeed (Score:1)
BiSB
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I'll take the over as well.

They no longer call me Bisbiño

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:55 PM | Wll then, (Score:1)
preed1
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is this one included in the count or not? I'm so confused

UM vs osu 2011 bring your keys and make noise (get it keys!)

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:30 PM | MSU's "brutal" early schedule (Score:1)
Waggles
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MSU's "brutal" early schedule is made a lot easier by planning tSIO without Pryor and all his buddies.. 

All in all though, I agree that we should win the division and play tSIO twice in a row. I'm hoping for at least one win between those two games.

ITS GREAT TO BE A MICHIGAN WOLVERINE

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:36 PM | I still think OSU's defense (Score:1)
joeyb
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I still think OSU's defense will prevent MSU from doing anything productive, but I guess I need to start hoping that the NCAA brings it down to 4 games. We might need MSU to have that loss for us to get into the BTCG.

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:39 PM | That's no way to be thinking (Score:1)
MaizeAndBlueWahoo
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That's no way to be thinking in February when we're still undefeated.

"We've beaten Michigan the last four years.  So where's the threat?"

- Mark Dantonio

Blogging the Virginia Cavaliers at http://fromoldvirginia.blogspot.com/<

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:05 PM | Considering most people think (Score:1)
joeyb
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Considering most people think that we will be 8-4 or 9-3, which means we have at least two conference losses, I think it's pretty fair to say. If we don't beat either MSU or Nebraska, we will have to have one fewer conference loss, which means they need at least 3 conference losses. Even if we beat both of them, we still need them to get at least one conference loss other than to us.

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:38 PM | ugh, MSU (Score:1)
dahblue
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I think it was clear last season that they were incredibly overrated.  Did they beat us?  Yes, but that wasn't much of a feat.  They lucked into at least 3 of their wins (ND, Purdue, NW), didn't play OSU, stayed in-state until November and played an incredible weak OOC slate.  So, this year, when they lose their top LB, top WR and top secondary player, play OSU and leave the state (3 times!) before November...I don't expect a whole lot from them...maybe 7-5.

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February 15th, 2011 at 4:20 PM | You might be right, but I (Score:1)
joeyb
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You might be right, but I think your homerism is clouding your eyes. Keep in mind they were 6-7 the year before and they had "no one" to fill their secondary, but their secondary stepped up this year. Just because they lose guys doesn't mean that no one will step up behind them and someone else won't be a leader this year. I'm not expecting 11-1 again, but I'd be surprised if they finish more than a game behind us in conference.

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:39 PM | I find it highly likely that (Score:1)
BlueintheLou
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I find it highly likely that an appeal will be filed and the sentence shortened to 3-4 games. If I were a betting man, I would wager that Pryor and Co. will be available for MSU.

"Those who stay will be champions."
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."
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February 15th, 2011 at 2:26 PM | in theory it can't go lower than four games (Score:1)
Erik_in_Dayton
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An NCAA rule says that a player who sells property that they received by virtue of being an athlete has to be suspended for four games.   The fifth game was discretionary. 

(Insert comment about the NCAA not following its own rules here.)

It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future. -- Yogi Berra

                         

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:40 PM | Without both of their best (Score:1)
BlockM
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Without both of their best linebackers tSIO's offense should still be able to move the ball, and I don't see MSU doing much of anything against their manbearfreak defense.

@pnbloem | Ultra-MGoBoard

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:31 PM | We would still have to beat (Score:1)
justingoblue
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We would still have to beat the team coming out of "Leaders", if it's OSU that means twice in two weeks and if it isn't, it's the team that knocked off OSU which very well might mean a top-5 Wisconsin team that steamrolled us last year.

We should be better, but I don't think it gets much (if any) easier in 2011.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:46 PM | I'm not quite sure who Wiscy (Score:1)
Mich_Faithful
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I'm not quite sure who Wiscy loses for next year, but don't they lose Tolzien? So they will be breaking in a new qb, but they may not need to throw a whole lot this year. Seeing as how  their run game seemed so dominate last year. Wiscy seems sort of a question mark I guess in my eyes for now, but then again I might just be blowing smoke.

How 'bout I punchisize your face, for free.

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:55 PM | They lose Tolzien and a bunch (Score:1)
justingoblue
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They lose Tolzien and a bunch of awesome linemen. The thing is though, Wisconsin graduates fifth-year seniors and then replaces them with fifth-year seniors.

I'm not saying they will beat OSU for the division, but if they do they're not exactly an easy win in the BTC.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:09 PM | After looking at their roster (Score:1)
Mich_Faithful
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After looking at their roster from the 2010 season I see they will have a senior QB Nate Tice who, from the looks of it, hasn't played a down. ALong with a handfull of freshman QB's. Also don't they lose Kendricks and possibly Toon? I know Kendricks was a senior, but Toon appears to have been a junior.  You're right about linemen, they had three senior OL, but still have 10 or so, not including incoming freshman, on their roster but not sure about how much experience they have.

How 'bout I punchisize your face, for free.

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:21 PM | Yea, Wisconsin is a bit of a (Score:1)
justingoblue
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Yea, Wisconsin is a bit of a question. Honestly they have a couple teams in that division that could win the right games and make it to the CG. PSU was a half of bad walk-on quarterbacking from taking down OSU in a big fashion.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:36 PM | Very good point (Score:1)
michgoblue
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I - like everyone - had not thought of that.  Our division doesn't have a true "leader" this year.   Minnesota and Northwestern will almost certainly make up the bottom, leaving us fighting with Iowa, MSU and Nebraska for the top.  Even though MSU has a bye week leading into our game, I like our chances there.  Iowa should have some growing pains with their youth (we know how that works), so I like our chances there, as well. 

Assuming that we are in the thick of it, the divisional divide should provide for some very interesting rooting interests when, for example, Nebraska plays OSU.

And that last week's game between Iowa and Nebraska should be huge.

One concern - Iowa doesn't play OSU this year, which provides them with one less guaranteed conference loss.

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:44 PM | I don't think NU will be near (Score:1)
justingoblue
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I don't think NU will be near the bottom. They should be solidly in the middle with us. Persa is coming back and he's very, very good. They had a dissapointing season last year; if luck had turned on two plays they'd be sitting at 9-3 last year.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:21 PM | Agree with NU take (Score:1)
Bodogblog
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9 returning on Offense, 7 on Defense - including most of the offensive and defensive lines, and secondary.  Should be a good team, and we're on the road

Though I do believe we should be solid contenders for the B1G next season

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:25 PM | Iowa, MSU, Illinois, (Score:1)
justingoblue
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Iowa, MSU, Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern and Minnesota are the games we need to worry about.

I think four are toss ups, with Minnesota being a damn near guarentee and Nebraska being improbable, but not impossible. They slipped against inferior competition in 2010, who knows what the Big Ten will do to them?

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:05 PM | If NU is improbable in 2011, (Score:1)
champswest
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what is Alabama in 2012?

"I hate losing more than I like winning." - Zack

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:09 PM | I'd say if Denard comes out (Score:1)
justingoblue
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I'd say if Denard comes out with a scorched earth policy in 2011 and the defense starts looking like something resembling a Mattison defense it could very well be a win.

If Borges says "jk lol" to Denard rushing for 1000-1200 yards and the defense literally couldn't be coached up by Lombardi then we're in big trouble.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:48 PM | Persa (Score:1)
Blue_Sox
Joined: 09/30/2010
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He is coming back for NU, but he's also coming back from an achilles tear. For a guy who depends a lot on his legs to make plays, I don't think he will be coming back to the same level he was playing at when he got hurt. It takes a long time to get back to form with an achilles tear--just look at Kalin Lucas' play this season.

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:57 PM | True, an ACL is a brutal (Score:1)
justingoblue
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True, an ACL tear is a brutal injury, but he's going to have almost a full year to rehab.

On top of that Fitzgerald can gameplan around Persa's injury; it's impossible to do that in basketball or with a RB/LB/whatever. I think Persa will still be a big threat next year.

Go Blue!

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:42 PM | This is a very interesting (Score:1)
BlueintheLou
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This is a very interesting point. I had not thought about this.

No one can say that, with any certainty, Iowa and MSU will be a better team than us next year. Nebraska likely will be a better team than us, but they do play a very difficult trial by fire schedule next year. This thing truly is wide open. Really throws a new dynamic into this league. Exciting stuff.

"Those who stay will be champions."
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1."
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February 15th, 2011 at 12:45 PM | I think this is all assuming (Score:1)
ÆonBlue
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MGoPoints: 260

I think this is all assuming that our talent and experience translates into everything we want it to next year. Michigan football is going to be very much a wild-card next year with a new system being learned not only on offense but on defense as well; even if whatever happens on defense can't be worse than last year that doesn't mean that Mattison can snap his fingers and make everything okay.

I want to be optimistic about 2011 but it's been hard the last 3 years. I'm excited and extremely interested to see what happens but I'm not ready to start talking about the B10 championship just yet. Let's see how we look once we get into B10 play becuase we've jumped the gun in September the last two years in a row, only to see that get thrown back in our face. Let's not jump the gun in February after getting a new coach and a new system, for better or worse.

Proceed with caution.

Everest from Old Spice helps mask the smell of fear during Wolverine attacks on Icy terrain.

World of Web Development

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February 15th, 2011 at 12:53 PM | OSU (Score:1)
michgoblue
michgoblue's picture
Joined: 11/16/2009
MGoPoints: 11211

Iowa doesn't have to play them at all.

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:32 PM | I think their schedule only (Score:1)
dahblue
dahblue's picture
Joined: 11/09/2009
MGoPoints: 1484

I think their schedule only appears "brutal" because they've been playing a JV schedule the last couple of years.  Their out-of-conference (with the exception of ND) is as weak as ever however.

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February 15th, 2011 at 3:03 PM | Don't forget (Score:1)
BlueDragon
BlueDragon's picture
Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 16726

The protected rivalry with Indiana.

Abort, Retry, Fail?

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February 15th, 2011 at 3:24 PM | Nothing says "college (Score:1)
dahblue
dahblue's picture
Joined: 11/09/2009
MGoPoints: 1484

Nothing says "college football tradition" like the mighty Hoosiers facing off against MSU.  Good thing for the BTN, otherwise that important battle wouldn't even be televised!

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February 15th, 2011 at 1:22 PM | It's tougher now (Score:1)
Tater
Tater's picture
Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10384

Before the current format, there were usually multiple champions, which means multiple banners each year.  With the Big Ten Championship Game format, similar to what they used to say on The Highlander, there can be only one.  

No matter who is in what division now, any team's path to the title has just gotten a lot harder.

 

 

 

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:03 PM | I just want a defense that (Score:1)
Zone Left
Zone Left's picture
Joined: 07/03/2008
MGoPoints: 13967

I just want a defense that allows somewhere south of 300 points (25 ppg) and a break even turnover margin.  Michigan let up 404 points prior to the bowl game (a school record and 33.8 ppg).  That does include the Illinois game, but doesn't include Miss St, which I guess is about a wash.

They're so far from being merely average on defense that it's amazing.

It's all John Navarre's fault.

 

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February 15th, 2011 at 2:21 PM | Frankly, the whole big ten is (Score:1)
Tauro
Tauro's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 656

Frankly, the whole big ten is a question mark next year except for OSU.  They only have the one conference game affected by the suspensions at this point.  It'll be an exciting year.  No one will know what to expect out of Michigan.  They could explode or implode or just hold steady.  It'll generate some excitement, particularly if we get through the first few weeks unscathed.  Heading into conference play with a 3-1 or 4-0 record will go a long way to building momentum.  At some point that momentum will be sustained for a solid conference run.  I am hoping it will be this year.

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February 15th, 2011 at 3:00 PM | I think the kickers are (Score:1)
Hill.FootballRe...
Joined: 01/22/2011
MGoPoints: 316

I think the kickers are Northwestern and Iowa. Can Northwestern pull off an upset against Nebraska, MSU, Iowa or us and can Iowa not fall apart like they did last year. Besides that, I think if we beat who we should, and then beat MSU we will be looking good going into the last 2 weeks against Nebraska and tOSU

Mitch McGary is a wall

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February 15th, 2011 at 5:08 PM | If Northwestern has proven (Score:1)
Seth
Seth's picture
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 48336

If Northwestern has proven anything, it's that they're infinitely capable of upsetting Iowa.

(Blogger alias: "Misopogon") This team is under construction. We thank you for your patience.

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February 15th, 2011 at 3:53 PM | As I live in "The 864," your (Score:1)
dakotapalm
dakotapalm's picture
Joined: 07/15/2008
MGoPoints: 1879

As I live in "The 864," your thread title was confusing to me.

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February 15th, 2011 at 6:19 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
rockediny
rockediny's picture
Joined: 08/14/2010
MGoPoints: 1401

You live in south carolina

"There will be blood on the field and it won't be mine." -KK

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February 15th, 2011 at 6:12 PM | Lowball (Score:1)
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 8754

I think 8,641 is lowballing this blog a little bit. Undoubtedly, three or four users will account for about 75% of that estimate BY THEMSELVES. Factor in the random prediction threads and we're at 5 digits at least. 

"Funny isn't it, how naughty dentists always make that one fatal mistake."

Follow the random tweets of a Michigan alum - http://twitter.com/#!/LorneEC3

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