Northwestern by the Numbers

Submitted by alum96 on

Think I'll do this weekly since I do the work anyhow for my own viewing, so I think the "numbers guys" on the board like this data.  Of course the game is played on the field but knowing the opponents strengths and weaknesses is always helpful.

I've added a few columns on the right this week - the category that best coincides with Michigan's stats if applicable.  i.e. Opponent total offense vs Michigan total defense.

I've also broken the stats into 3 categories for easier digestion - offense, defense, misc/special teams.  NW grades out really impressive as a disciplined, defensive powerhouse with good special teams and a nice running attack.  Tressel of Chicago.  NW has no major statistical weakness outside of their offense - talk about a 180 from Maryland.  That said their top 10 ranking in 3rd down offensive conversion was a shocker.

NW Strengths

    Natl rank Value       UM rank Value
Offense         Defense      
3rd down conversion   10 49%   3rd down conversion   1 20%
Rushing offense   14 248.8   Rushing defense   5 71.4
Sacks Allowed per game   13 0.8   Sacks   45 2.2
                 
                 
Defense         Offense      
3rd down conversion   2 20%   3rd down conversion   46 42%
Defensive TDs   7 2          
Fumbles recovered   10 5   Fumbles lost   55 3
Passing Yds Allowed   7 130   Passing Yds   96 191.2
Rushing defense   26 117.4   Rushing offense   35 201.4
Total defense   5 247.4   Total offense   77 392.6
Red zone defense   6 60%   Red zone offense   12 94%
Scoring defense   1 7   Scoring Offense   74 27.8
                 
                 
Misc / Special Teams                
Fewest Penalties/Game   8 4.2          
Penalty Yds/Game   5 34          
Kickoff returns   3 31.6   Kickoff returns def   19 17.9
Punt return defense   2 -1.6   Punt returns   62 8.7
TOP   11 33:42   TOP   6 34:20
Turnover Margin / game   28 0.8   Turnover Margin / game   84 -0.4

 

NW Weaknesses

    Natl rank Value       UM rank Value
Offense         Defense      
Completion %   92 56.1%          
Passing offense   118 142.2   Passing yds allowed   3 112.6
Passing yds per comp   94 11.1          
Scoring offense   89 25.4   Scoring defense   2 7.6
TFL allowed / game   100 6.8   TFL / game   17 8
Total offense   79 391   Total defense   2 184

 

Tater

October 6th, 2015 at 10:54 AM ^

Last year's "M00N" game was "terrible."  Michigan's 10-9 win was the "worst game in college football" that day.  But if Michigan wins 10-9 this year, it will be an "epic struggle between the two best defenses in the Big Ten."

I'll take 10-7 Michigan in a "great game..."

alum96

October 6th, 2015 at 9:46 AM ^

Fun fact - NW has given up 3 TDs all year.   One of them a 1 play, 22 yd drive vs Ball State when their offense turned the ball over deep in their own end.  So essentially 2 TD drives allowed all year.  Impressive whatever the opponents. 

Their punt return defense is also amazing - a negative yardage value. Unheard of 5 games into a season.

Major mismatches as below for both teams per stats (i.e. where NW ranks high and UM low and vice versa)

In favor of NW

  • Passing Yds Allowed >>> UM's Passing Yds
  • Total Defense >> UM's Total Offense
  • Scoring Defense >> UM's Scoring Offense
  • Punt return Defense >> UM's Punt returns
  • Turnover Margin / Game >> UM's Turnover Margin / Game

 

In favor of UM

  • Passing Yds Allowed >>> NW's Passing Yds
  • Scoring Defense >>> NW's Scoring Offense
  • TFL / game  >> NW's TFL Allowed / game
  • Total Defense >> NW's Total Offense

 

There is one wonky stat in there - NW is bad at giving up TFL but great at not giving up sacks.  So that is a curious one as usually you suck at both or are good at both. 

alum96

October 6th, 2015 at 9:47 AM ^

Yep - on the main page, Seth is able to do excel tables where you can scroll within the table somehow like in an Excel spreadsheet.  No idea how he does it; would be nice info to have if we can do the same magic in the Mgoboard. 

For now just scroll right ;)

alum96

October 6th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^

I am going 17-9 with UM wearing down NW very late in the game for a TD but a tough close game (i.e. 10-9) mid day thru the 4th?

Stopping Justin Jackson is UM's key on D.  Channeling Iowa Rudock for more than 20 minutes is UM's offensive key.  Don't turn the ball over and don't sleep on NW's special teams which has helped them to touchdowns vs Duke and Minnesota.  Peppers doing some damage vs the nation's #1 punt return defense would be a bonus.

DONT KICK TO WILL LIKE... oh wait. 

DONT TURN THE BALL OVER.

Now with all that said and everyone predicting a slog it would be hilarious if this was a 42-38 game.

Njia

October 6th, 2015 at 10:31 AM ^

My daughter. She's been to 10 games and never been to one that Michigan has lost. I'll make sure she gets her ass out of her dorm room on Saturday and finds her way to the stands.

BornInAA

October 6th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^

I'm not buying into NW coming into the Big House and winning.'

Doesn't pass the sniff test, no matter stats or records.

They beat us 15 times - ever - in a century.

The last was 2008, a 3-9 year where nearly everyone beat us.

Then 2000 a close 51-54 loss at Evanston. (Llyod also lost to Purdue that year but beat MSU, OSU and Auburn in the Citrus - go figure)

Hoke swept these guys- come on! Every senior on the team beat these guys 3 times and are now Harbaughfied.

Per decade
             W     L     T  PFPG  PAPG
  2010's     4     0     0  29.3  20.8
  2000's     5     2     0  32.3  20.1
  1990's     5     2     0  28.6  10.3
  1980's     7     0     0  35.9   5.3
  1970's     7     0     0  43.7   7.7
  1960's     6     1     0  24.0  10.0
  1950's     7     3     0  22.2  16.6
  1940's     8     1     1  24.7  10.6
  1930's     2     3     1   5.7   5.8
  1920's     1     1     0  14.5   1.5
  1910's     1     1     0  14.0  17.0
  1900's     1     0     0  29.0   0.0
  1890's     2     1     0  28.7   7.0

 

UM Fan from Sydney

October 6th, 2015 at 10:38 AM ^

I'll tell you what - their sacks allowed per game stat will rise and total rushing offense will fall after this game.

True Blue Grit

October 6th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^

makes me feel optimistic about this game.  Yes, this may be the best Northwestern team since the Barnett years, but then again, it may not.   We've seen NU start out well before and then fall apart.  Northwestern is still Northwestern.  I DO feel that this will be a pretty close game.  I think alum96's prediction is pretty accurate.  I just hope our OL and Jake play like they did against BYU and not like the Maryland game.  If they do, we'll do well. 

Evil Empire

October 6th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^

And our coaching staff is a lot better than the staff that beat Northwestern four times in a row, albeit three straight squeakers.

Northwestern's staff has been basically the same for 5+ years, many of them have been in place for much longer.  They have Tommy Rees as a grad assistant, draw your own conclusions from that.

Should be a close, low-scoring game.  I bet we win in the trenches and that's enough.

wayneandgarth

October 6th, 2015 at 12:18 PM ^

The home field advantage will make the difference in such closely talented teams.  NU will incur an extra TO and 2 false starts, resulting in enough of an impact to get Mich to victory.  13-10.