Nice article on Channing Stribling and "sleeper" recruits

But I imagine there is also some of the reverse:  A player gets the benefit of the doubt from the recruiting services, bumping him up to three stars because he was offered by a major school, while a similar player going to a MAC school remains a two star.  In this case, the bump in ratings could make three stars at the major schools underperform relative to their peers (in terms of final ratings) at smaller schools.

There isn't a one-size-fits-all answer. There are different reasons why different athletes are rated with two or three stars, or not rated at all. Let's look at three past Michigan examples, as well as Stribling.

1. Mike Hart - coming out of Onondaga, New York, he had tremendous statistics (national career record of 204 rush touchdowns and and 1246 career points.) However, because of his lack of stature, the size of his high school, and the weak quality of high school football in the western NY area, Hart was not highly rated as a recruit. Prior to his 2004 freshman season, no one foresaw that he would set a Michigan record of 1,455 rushing yards.
2. Tom Brady - his speed, arm strength, size, and agility all left something to be desired.  Who can forget that Brady was buried seventh on the depth chart as a freshman, had to fight off Henson for the starting position as a junior  and senior and that Carr wouldn't name Brady starting quarterback? We all know how that story turned out.
3. Jordan Kovacs - twice a walk on, doubted for years as a safety, slow, "gritty," not rated at all, and yet now one of the key leaders of the defense. His impecable pursuit angles and football smarts, along with our defensive scheme, make Kovacs a valuable asset, and give Michigan the best safety tandem they have had in years.

According to the Rivals article, Stribling falls into a different category. He just began playing safety, and so far, has largely been a wide receiver. The implication is that after the fall, once everyone sees how good he is as a safety, there will be a lot of offers out there.

One other thing:  for every low rated recruit who succeeds, there are many more who don't make it. It just is impossible to tell who will make the leap and tap their potential, and who won't.

Like Aladdin.

Rivals had Mathieu as their #13 CB and #191 overall player. He was far from under-the-radar.

I think Stribling was below the radar, and the recruiting services missed him. He was, to use the overused vernacular, a "sleeper" or "diamond in the rough" to Scout, Rivals, 247, and ESPN, if not to the coaches. It was only when Michigan offered Channing, and he accepted, that everyone took notice. Mattison, imhe, is the deal maker and the reason that all involved pay attention. The recruiting services realize that only a fool would doubt Mattison's ability to first, uncover & assess talent, and second, to develop it. In this regard, John Beilein appears to have the same ability (i.e., finding, assessing, and snagging great players BEFORE anyone else realizes the athlete in question's ability.)

My guess is that if Saban, or Urban Meyer, or Lane Kiffin, offered a so-called "two star," (exception:  not two star long snappers,) everyone would take notice, and said two star recruit would have the "sleeper" moniker quickly slapped on their info dossier.

I think that the more a coach is connected to high schools and school scouts, the more likely they are to hear about this kind of player. And a good scout really has to cover their tracks so that no one else sees who they are looking at. Recently, I ran into two examples of scouts who uncovered talent others didn't see:

1. In reading Jim Abbott's autobiography  Imperfect: An Improbable Life,there is a fascinating account of how Abbott was scouted. In brief, the scout was extremely careful not to bring any attention to himself, because he didn't want any other MLB scouts to see who he was looking at.
2. The Chicago Tribune just had a long piece on former GM Jerry Krause. (LINK:  http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-07-07/sports/ct-spt-0708-krause-bulls--20120707_1_jerry-krause-bulls-title-teams-bulls-gm/1.) Krause had the nickname "sleuth," and he now admits it fit. It was partly luck that the Bulls drafted Michael Jordan. Even so, he was the third pick. But the real steal was Scottie Pippen. Krause says, If I had said something to somebody before the Pippen draft, it would've got out. We were able to do that, and nobody had a clue in the world that we were interested in Pippen. Not one person.

Part of the job of good scouts (and coaches) is to find exceptional talent under a rock, talent that no one else sees. Stribling had a single MAC offer from Ball State, to go along with a few FCS offers. I believe he is a "low floor, high ceiling" player, and has the opportunity to be key to Michigan in the future. This, in combination with many 4 star recruits, is critical.