NFL Draft: Nearly 40% of underclassmen go un-drafted
The headline speaks for itself.
http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/05/tracking_the_underclassmen_n…
A couple of notes:
1. It's probably safe to say the # of underclassmen (whether drafted or subsequently signed as UFA) who are out of the league altogether after 2 or 3 years is much higher than 40%.
2. Football factories like Alabama consistently see a significant number of underclassmen turn pro every year. Part of this is due to talent but it is also due to the unconscioanable and hypocritical 1 year schollarship guarantee policy.
3. Our recruiting staff should be using these NFL Draft tidbits to our advantage. The case can and should be made that a kid is much better off playing at Michigan given that: (i) you have a 4 year scholarship guarantee; and (ii) your chances of seeing the field and developing as a prospect are probably higher than at Alabama given that Bama currently recruits at a much higher level and the likelihood of attrition is much higher.
Oh and did I mention Michigan has better academics? Oh, hell that doesn't matter anymore I guess...
Great thinking on the recruiting tip, you should email the staff and let them know
I know. I'm a genius. A regular John Nash :)
I am still curious as to who told Donovan Warren he should leave early. I feel like unless you're winning awards or an All-American...or you are almost assuredly a first round pick you should be staying in school. My guess is though an agent is telling him he's a first round pick and that's good enough for most to jump early. Also, how many of the 40% got signed? All of them?
was the B12 DPOY and played for Texas yet he was undrafted. Awards don't mean shit when it comes to draft status. Media tends to overrate players because they don't know how or what to evaluate players except for name hype and stats.
If I'm not mistaken, the draft board gave him an very optimistic review and he was actually supposed to get drafted pretty high, but completely bombed in the combine. We all wanted him to stay for multiple reasons (especially after he completely whiffed on the draft), but had he performed even moderately better predraft, I'm sure his decision would made have made a ton more sense. That combine can really make or break you sometimes.
I remember seeing him projected at 4th/5th round before he came out. Then he had a terrible combine which is arguably one of the worst combine ever (plus he didn't do well in Senior Bowl where he looked stiff at LB drills). It's no surprise that his stock tumbled all the way down to 7th. Did his sexual orientation play a factor? Hard to tell, but you have to think a little. However, when you look at him as a prospect and project him to the next level when he's a tweener who's too small to play DE and not athletic/too stiff to play LB, he's barely a draftable prospect. The only thing that saved him is he did well in Mizzou.
Hell, even Jackson Jeffcoat who was the Big 12 DPOY didn't get drafted.
It would have been a bad PR by the NFL if Sam went undrafted in the eye of the average people who don't know much about how the draft process works. If I was Sam, I would've been better off undrafted and pick a team that best fit his situation instead he's locked into one team who already have a stud in Quinn and a very good DE in Long.
you've got Michael Sam on the brain, and totally screwed that one.
What I didn't realize is that he was a 5*, consensus top 10 overall recruit. Just like it's interesting looking back as past drafts to see the busts, it's also interesting to look back at recruits. The sad thing is that year (2010), another 5* was Demar Dorsey...*sigh*...the thought of him playing midfield FS with Kovacs at SS gives me shivers...
I think Warren left a little early, but if memory serves me right the talk around him was 2nd/3rd round, and given the crapshow on defense he already lived through I don't blame him for wanting to leave. The fact he was never drafted and couldn't really catch on anywhere I think have less to do with the draft process and more with a bad decision and an inability to make that leap.
I wonder if Warren saw the writing on the wall and chose not to be part of one of the worst defenses in the history of defenses. Maybe he thought he had nothing to learn from Tony Gibson (probably right).
but I thought I remember reading that Warren wasn't to fond of his defensive coaches (ie - he wasn't that happy playing football at UM).
But the problem is most kids don't care about a "four year guarantee," because the top kids in the country that we recruit vs Bama for are trying to get to the league in three years. The way you beat Alabama in recruiting (if you are Michigan) is the Big House, academic prestige (which some won't care about), the opportunity to play early and bring Michigan back to being an elite program, and having arguably the biggest fan base in the country (which is neutralized a little by Alabama bandwaggoners.)
What is really absurd about this is Saban complaining about kids leaving early while cutting kids from the team before they can graduate. He has absolutely no basis to complain about kids leaving early.
We stink and so you'll play more...Alabama wins championships, but they recruit better players so you may not get a chance there.
Sign me up, Coach.
What kid in the world, especially football kid is going to have this mentality? Kids text and drive every day and think accidents can't happen to them. They think they're invincible. So they're that "bold" but they're going to think that Alabama may recruit someone better than them and it may be them that's going to be in this 40%?
No. They all think they're going to the NFL and they're all TOLD if they work hard they're going to the NFL.
I feel like you're yelling at me and losing your breath towards the end of your rant because the text size is getting smaller.
You end up out of shape and a shell of your old self.
"What kid in the world, especially football kid is going to have this mentality?"
There are a lot of kids who think this way, whether they admit it or not. If you can go to a second-tier program (which includes Michigan right now) and be a star, that's sometimes a better option than going to a first-rate school and competing with 5-stars. Some kids just aren't cut out to battle for their job every single day of their existence. And that doesn't mean that they can't be competitive enough to succeed against OTHER teams. But if you're not sure that your teammates and coaches trust you, that can wear on your mentality.
Of course it's ideal if every kid has the utmost confidence to play with anybody in the country, but that's not the way the world works. There are thousands of kids playing college football. They don't all think "I'm the best player in the country!"
I'm not saying that they don't choose 2nd tier programs for a myriad of reasons. Kids do ALL the time.
I'm saying you're not going to build a competitive program at Michigan with a bunch of Florida kids thinking that they're all going to think this way.
Hell Rich Rod didn't even do this and he had a better pipeline to Florida than any coach that will likely ever coach at Michigan. Even when he did, it's not like he was grabbing the top guys out of the state and no one else.
of Alabama signees who make it and if it's really that much higher than other schools. That and graduation percentage. I realize these kids don't think they will be the failure but part of Nick Saban's story of coming to Alabama is that you have a better chance of making it to the pros. When you are recruiting twice as many as Michigan it may seem like it and my guess is they would put a higher percentage in the pros however I question if it's double the number. Now may not be the best time for comparison with Michigan because of attrition in the last couple classes. I think the percentage of players going to the pros is going to increase over the next few years.
The number who stay in the pros for a few years would also be interesting. Does it help some of these kids get to the pros because of other great players on the team but they fail when they get to the pros?
I heard an interesting arguement on sports radio yesterday to name "good" NFL players that Saban coached and there were like 2-3. They thought it's because he beats them up so bad in college that they are done before the NFL.
Julio Jones, Dont'a Hightower, Marcell Dareus, Mark Barron, and Eddie Lacy are all good players. I'm not smart enough to pick out the O lineman who are good, but they have a number who are starting.
I was thinking about this during the draft. Not only are there few elite players, but some of the big name guys have been complete busts.
That said, a high school kid cares about getting drafted and in that regard, Alabama is still tops. Here is a quick comparison of schools and the rounds players were drafted in:
Alabama: 1,1,2,4,5,5,5,6
Auburn: 1,1,3,6
Baylor: 5,6,6,7,7
Clemson: 1,3,4,4,6
Florida: 1,4,5,6
FSU: 1,2,2,3,4,4,5
Georgia: 5,5
Iowa: 3,3,4
Louisville: 1,1,1,3
LSU: 1,2,2,2,3,5,6,6
Miami (YTM): 3,6,7
Michigan: 1,3,7
MSU: 1
MIssouri: 2,2,6,7
Nebraska: 2,3,6
North Carolina: 1,3,4,4,7
Notre Dame: 1,2,2,3,3,4,6,6
OSU: 1,1,2,2,5,7
Oklahoma: 4,4,7,7
Oregon: 3,4,5,7
Penn State: 2,4,5
Pitt: 1,4,5
South Carolina: 1,4
Stanford: 2,4,5,5,6,7
Tennessee: 1,6,6
Texas:
Texas A&M: 1,1,1
UCLA: 1,2,4,4,6
USC: 2,3,5
VA Tech: 1,4,6
Washington: 2,2
Wisconsin: 3,3,4,5,7
This is just a one year look. It would be good to do this over the past 4 years. I included some schools that have traditionally turned out quantity and quality of recruits and you can see some had a very down year this year (Georgia, Texas, Miami). Looking at this I'm listening to the coaches at Bama, Clemson, FSU, LSU, UNC, ND, OSU, Stanford, UCLA, and Wisconisin.
I would also listen to Mack Strong and Kevin Sumlin. We don't make many, but when we do, they are first rounders.
Perhaps most notable that TAMU had three players drafted and it was all in the first round
Bama had 4 guys picked in the 1st two rounds of the 2013 draft
1-9 Dee Milliner (CB) NYJ - started 12 games, 3 int, 45 tackles - struggled, getting pulled a few times, but rookie CB rarely are anything better than passable
1-10 Chance Warmack (RG) TEN - started all 16 games, that's pretty good for rookie OL though he was thought to have just an ok debut
1-11 DJ Fluker (OT) SD - started 15 games, holding his own @ RT but stuggling at LT. He graded out ahead of the 3 big-name OT from his class (Fischer, Joeckel, Johnson)
2-61 Eddie Lacy (RB) GB - started 15 games despite a training camp injury and ran for 1178 yards, 11 TDs, 4.1 YPC
It's early, but I wouldn't say any of those guys are looking like busts at this point. Fluker and Lacy look like excellent players and Milliner & Warmack need time for a fair evaluation.
The same "shot fighter" theory used to "explain" Saban's players not panning out in the NFL used to be used against University of Michigan running backs under Bo.
that theory has been thrown around in the last few years regarding running backs from Wisconsin not really setting the world on fire in the NFL.
"A lot of people don't realize I wasn't healthy at Alabama," McCarron said. "I sacrificed a lot to play for coach Saban and that university; I played through a lot of injuries and we never leaked it because that's just the way it is."
Any questions?
Yeah,
where is this quote from? I'm pretty sure a quote like this requires a link.
Thank you!
AJ,
Let's think back to those thrilling days of January 2013. You've just quarterbacked Alabama to its (and your) second consecutive National Championship. The Alabama offense does not let you generate the kind of numbers to be in Heisman consideration. The 2013 draft class is weak in QB prospects, and sandwiched between two strong QB classes. In short, your choices are to leave now for the draft, get drafted higher than in 2014, get paid more, and sooner than in 2014. Or, you can risk injury and getting beat up to pay for free in the following season (where you have no conceivalbe goal you have not already achieved) so you can get drafted later, and get paid less after waiting 12 months.
So, you turned pro, right? What the what?! You came back for your last year at Alabama?! WHY?!
I'm sorry folks. I find it harder and harder to believe Alabama has managed its recent run of dominance without one of the best bagmen corps in the country. Meanwhile, Inspector Clouseau of the NCAA Compliance Branch is hot on a tip that some softball players from Harvard's intramural 1995 season were smoking pot after the Championship Game.
Actually, at least to me, the number here that is almost as interesting as this stat is that of the underclassmen that were selected 34 of them (16 in the first, 18 in the second) went in the first two rounds or slightliy over half of total number selected and that all but 11 of that subgroup were gone by the end of the fourth round. That struck me as intriguing.
What stood out for me after the draft is no Texas Longhorn players were drafted this year.
Their team recruiting rankings (247) from '09-'12 are #6, #2,#4 and #2. That's not good player development.
how worthless player and team rankings of high school kids really is.
So what does have value in predicting how good a player will be if the recruiting services are worthless?
Or maybe just overrated recruits
I think one of the problems is how "underclassmen" is defined for NFL draft purposes. It refers to anyone with eligibility left, but often includes kids who already obtained their degree. It's not uncommon for kids who redshirted a year to forgo their 5th year and try for the NFL, and if that doesn't work, move on with their lives. For most kids in that situation, if the NFL doesn't want you now, they probably won't a year from now either. So throw your hat in, and if it doesn't work out, use your degree and get a job the same as if you had stayed in college on extra year.
According to this only 2 players with degrees went undrafted...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2014_NFL_Draft_early_entrants
Dion Bailey and Adrian Hubbard.
Anybody remember Seantrel Henderson, 5*, #1 overall to 2/4 sites and 247 Composite #2, supposed to be the best OL prospect of the last decade, and at one time had M as the leader? I had completely forgotten about him until I randomly noticed him amid the 7th round picks. It's interesting looking back at how things turn out.