Next 3 games -- make or break

Submitted by Red is Blue on

The next three weeks will go a along way toward determining the future of the program.  Most everyone thought we'd get to this point of the season with M at 4-1 or 5-0.  Over the next three, if M goes 2-1 or 3-0 it will almost certainly be viewed as a successful season and the RR era will definitely be exanded.  It think going 0-3 would likely mean the end of the RR era as most likely the team would end up between 5-7 and 7-5 inclusive, but would have gone 1-7 to 3-5 in the Big Ten and ended the year with a 0-7 or 2-5 record over the last seven games.  That is simply not good enough. 

If M goes 1-2 over the next three, that marks a middle ground and the future of the RR era will depend on the performance over the last four games.  Given how well the offense has performed, unless the wheels come off in the final four games I think this will be good enough to continue the RR era.

jamiemac

October 4th, 2010 at 8:33 AM ^

The next three games will determine if November is spent chasing a January bowl or if the ceiling is the Alamo Bowl.

I actually feel pretty good about Michigan's chances, but thats why they play the games.

jblaze

October 4th, 2010 at 8:36 AM ^

even if RR wins only 1 of the 3, I don't think that changes his job outlook at all. We'll be at 6-2, with Illinois and Purdue ahead a winnable Wisky game, and OSU.

Hell, I think 8-4, with this type of improvement on O, a good looking future on D and he may even get an extension!

Logan88

October 4th, 2010 at 8:46 AM ^

Point of order: The Big 10 is no longer affiliated with the Alamo Bowl as it has been replaced by the Texas Bowl. Some serious sh*t would have to go down for UM to end up in the Alamo Bowl this season.

jcgold

October 4th, 2010 at 8:52 AM ^

true, but the selection order has been slightly shifted:

1. BCS

2. Capital One

3. Outback

4. Insight

5. Gator

6. Texas

7. Dallas 

8. Motor City

The gator and insight bowls will switch order every other year.

Logan88

October 4th, 2010 at 9:09 AM ^

I feel your pain. Two weeks in a row, I have missed out on big paydays by one game in numerous parlays/teasers. Usually involving a spectacular upset that no one could forsee.

If I believed in God, I would assume that he/she/it hates me.

jamiemac

October 4th, 2010 at 9:18 AM ^

Yeah, I saw that. I was going to respond at the JCB, but I am on a 24-hour moratorium on that blog while I recharge and regroup.

I didnt even notice how poorly the afternoon was going thanks the the MIchigan dramatics. The NC State and FIU closing minutes were a debacle.

Wolverine0056

October 4th, 2010 at 8:37 AM ^

Really the rest of the season is make or break. But I agree with you. I think literally we win at least 2 out of the next 3. MSU is a good team, but coming into The Big House is a tall task. With our offense clicking on all cylinders, our defense just needs to make a few stops. Iowa will be a game we win. I definitely see us taking it from them no problem. PSU is going to be a good game but again our offense is going to run all over them. Their offense is nothing compared to ours and Indiana's offense is much better than PSU's. The MSU game is a tossup IMO.

Logan88

October 4th, 2010 at 8:51 AM ^

I think UM has a much better chance of beating MSU than it does Iowa. MSU is getting a LOT of play out of beating an overrated Wisconsin team. MSU's defense is decent but not great. Their offense is good but not great. Meanwhile, Iowa's defense is lights out good and their offense is good but not great. Add to that, Iowa has a bye week this week so they have an extra week to prepare for the UM game.

I feel pretty good about UM's chances of beating MSU this weekend (65%), but am slightly pessimistic of the chances of a win over Iowa (40%).

Wolverine0056

October 4th, 2010 at 9:01 AM ^

Eh I don't know. Iowa struggled mightily at Arizona and lost. That has been their only road game thus far, making the UM game their second. Wisconsin is a little overrated, but I think Iowa is too. Penn State and Arizona are the only two real games they have played. PSU is overrated for sure as we all know, but again that was at home. We almost beat Iowa last year, so I think we have a pretty good chance against them this year.

Robbie Moore

October 4th, 2010 at 8:56 AM ^

I see MSU, OSU and Iowa as the three toughest games on our schedule.  I would be pleased to win one.  I think PSU has become winnable due to a non-existent offense in State College.  Illinois and Purdue should be wins (up yours Danny Hope) and Wisconsin is a toss up.  So figure four more wins (Illinois, Purdue, PSU and Wisconsin) and we've got a 9-3 season.  RR gets an extension, we recruit ourselves some some stud defenders and we are on our way.

bouje

October 4th, 2010 at 8:53 AM ^

4-1 or 5-0?? Not that many people to be honest.
<br>
<br>But yes these next 3 games are very important with (order of Win-a-bility)
<br>
<br>PSU (65%)
<br>MSU (55%)
<br>Iowa (51%)
<br>
<br>

Mitch Cumstein

October 4th, 2010 at 9:08 AM ^

winning only one of the first 2 games.  Getting them both was a bonus.  I will say our schedule to this point has been pretty shatty if you look at how the teams we've played are doing.  We play 5 teams in the last 7 games that are better than any of the teams we've played thus far.

Dan TrueBlue

October 4th, 2010 at 9:19 AM ^

Just thought I'd crunch some numbers this morning:

My gut says we have a little bit better chance than that of beating PSU, say 70-75%, and a little bit worse chance of beating MSU & Iowa, say 40-45%.  

To find the minimal odds, let's err on the side of more cynicism and say a 1/3 (or better) chance to beat Iowa & PSU, and a 2/3 (or better) chance to beat PSU.  Even if the odds are that low, that gives us an 85% or better chance of getting at least one win out of the 3.  The odds of getting 2 wins though doesn't look as good at 41%+.

If we run something closer to your odds, say 2/3, 1/2, and 1/2, that gives us a 92% chance of picking up at least 1 win, a 58% chance of picking up at least 2, and a 16% chance of getting all 3.

My own guess is that it's somewhere in between.  Meaning we have a really good chance of getting one win out of the three (~90%), and about 50-50 odds of getting two.

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Optimus Hart

October 4th, 2010 at 10:00 AM ^

In August I picked UM to start 5-0.  Of course, I also said they would finish 7-5, with the final two wins being Illinois and Purdue.  I'll stand by those as wins, but I think we can throw most of our remaining schedule in the toss-up column at this point.

MileHighWolverine

October 4th, 2010 at 9:10 AM ^

until we hit 8 wins, then I will ratchet it up to 8-4 until we hit 9 wins....

I was feeling confident before IU and had we won a little more convincingly I may have been persuaded to go up 8-4 right now.  Our D is what is making me lack confidence right now.

ImSoBlue

October 4th, 2010 at 9:16 AM ^

how many wins RR n eeds to keep his job.  If the team plays up to its potential and the youngsters on D grow up a little, we should get a good outcome.  One of the great things about college football, as much as we try to quantify and predict, you just never know what is going to happen week to week. 

I trust this coaching staff a lot more than the old gaurd.

There were a lot of folks that did not expect us to be 5-0 at this point in time.

The Punisher

October 4th, 2010 at 9:21 AM ^

If we can beat MSU, I'll feel much better about Iowa and Wisconsin.

At this point I'm looking at PSU, Illinois, and Purdue as wins. Which would put us at 8-4 but with losses to 2 of the big 3 rivals.

Add a MSU win not only puts the record at 9-3 but gives us wins over 2 of 3 rivals.

MSU is BIG. For Rich, for recruiting, for the program/future.

Go Blue!

Logan88

October 4th, 2010 at 9:43 AM ^

There are three games RR "must" win in the remaining schedule for me to be satisfied with UM's season: MSU, Purdue and Illinois.

Back to back losses to those three teams for the first time in 40-50 years is, wait for it, UNACCEPTABLE. RR reaaallllyyyy needs to beat all three of those teams this season for me to continue to have any faith in him.

(Note: Please refrain from any of the typical smart-a** replies about how RR/Dave Brandon don't care about what some random poster on the internet thinks...I am fully aware of this fact.)

6james6

October 4th, 2010 at 9:55 AM ^

To be honest. I am not in the game of prediction with my fav. team. MICH offense is explosive. It may be a one-man-show for a lot of people but I still see it as a team game. In the sense passing game would not phenomenal w/o Stonum, Roundtree, Hemmingway, Odoms. 

Rushing is excellent - just like it is supposed to be at Michigan since the Bo Era I guess. Robinson is a crazy runner but Shaw and Smith are doing just about right being overshadowed by D-Rob for obvious reasons.

MSU has not played a legit road game this year and we have already won 2 road games. Road games are not easy and I am sure this saturday at THE BIG(GEST) HOUSE - it is not going to be easy. The game is going to be close. Also UM-MSU is always a close fought game - no matter how bad MSU is.

Losing to PUR,ILL thrice in a row would be like a heart ache. I think those games should be W - assuming DRob is healthy. 

Wisco is always an over-rated team. PSU to be honest is a sucky team this year. IOWA is going to be hard as STANZI might be hard to contain but our D did a good job last year and we had almost won had it not been for that INT. 

D-Rob healthy = 6 wins heading into a repeat of 2006. UM-OSU (undefeated both teams)

Although I am rooting for an OSU upset (2 would be better) prior to UM game

Personal Opinion.

oakapple

October 4th, 2010 at 9:33 AM ^

Obviously, five victories don’t prove anything on their own. I don’t buy that there is any particular sequence of wins that make or define the season.

I did circle Michigan State at the beginning of the season, and I am sure the players did too, because U-M should never lose to Sparty three times in a row. Aside from that, let’s just enjoy the games one at a time.

Tater

October 4th, 2010 at 9:38 AM ^

If any games were going to be called "make or break," it's taking care of business against Purdue and Illinois.  But, as we all know, there is no "magic number" for RR, and I can't imagine David Brandon not being impressed with the direction of the program at this point.  This team has a family environment that is second to none in the country; those who have stayed represent the University as well as any team ever has off the field. 

The RR era is alive and well, and will only get better in the future.  I plan on enjoying what is left of the season.  And I plan on celebrating at least four more times.

Red is Blue

October 4th, 2010 at 10:37 AM ^

If Purdue and the Illinois games were the ones that were "make or break", then obviously if M wins those games the season is "made" regardless.  If those were the only wins the rest of the way, M would be 7-5 overall and 3-5 in Big Ten having only beaten IU, PU, and the Illini in conference play.  Sorry, but that's not good enough.  With the way the offense has played, I think 7-5 might be good enough it includes a win against a team in the upper half of the Big Ten even if that is offset by a loss vs. PU or Illinois.  But, we need to prove that we can beat teams in the upper half of the Big Ten.

NateVolk

October 4th, 2010 at 9:51 AM ^

I love the way these guys play and work hard getting ready to play.  I love the style of play on offense. If there is a group of players and a coach that deserve every success, it is this bunch.

They'll be a beast for any of those 7 remaining teams.  Outside of that, hard to for me to say on wins and losses. They already surprised me in 3 of the first 5.

msoccer10

October 4th, 2010 at 10:06 AM ^

If it were up to me, I would keep Rodriguez as long as he beats Illinois and Purdue. 7-5, bowl game  and the obviously great job he has done with the offense should give him more time.  That being said, I would obviously be extrememly disappointed losing five of the next seven, but I think that would still be enough improvement.

I have been saying since last season ended that this MSU game is the biggest game of the  year. I am terrified because their offense is arguably the best we will face all year (with the possible exception of a bowl game). But I think we are very evenly matched overall and can't wait for this Saturday.

Hannibal.

October 4th, 2010 at 10:52 AM ^

I'd be delighted with one win out of the next three.  Especially if that one win comes against MSU.  If we go 6-0 we'll be solid favorites against Purdue and Illinois and anything above 7 wins means we're playing with house money.

StephenRKass

October 4th, 2010 at 11:05 AM ^

I began believing we would go 7 - 5, and now have upped this to 8 - 4. I believe that Dave Brandon will give RR at least another year or two. Winning vs. Illinois and Purdue gets us to 7 - 5, which is enough, EVEN if we lose the next three. Winning vs. MSU or Iowa or PSU or Wisconsin brings that up to 8 - 4. I think we will win at least one of those four, , and possibly two of them, bringing us to 9 - 3. To be at 9 - 3 this year, with our absolutely atrocious defense, would be absolutely incredible.

I also am one of those who believes that our defense will continue to improve over the season to some degree.

Lastly, I always felt that 2011 was the critical "evaluation" year for RR.

mgolax

October 4th, 2010 at 11:12 AM ^

I feel like I went through this last year too.  Over and over again I keep playing out various scenarios in my head: how many wins does RR need or which bowl (if any!) can we hope to make etc. etc.  I think I've given up at this point, and really would just like to watch some more michigan football that doesn't make me want to stab myself with a My Little Pony.