New Vegas Betting Odds: Michigan 10.5 O/U Wins

Submitted by LKLIII on

MLive is reporting that a bunch of new vegas odds are out for the expected win totals for the season.

Highlights for the Over/Under:

 

Michigan:  10.5

Nebraska: 9.5

Ohio State: 9

MSU:  8

Iowa:  8

http://www.mlive.com/sports/2016/08/college_football_overunder_win.html…

Caveats of course about how betting lines are set not based on real predictions, but on what the odds makers think will yield them a roughly even split on betters taking the Over vs. Under position.  But still, I was surprised that Michigan is that high and OSU that low--or at least if Michigan is at 10.5 I'd expect OSU to be at 11.  It'll be interesting to see how the line moves over the next few weeks.

DrMantisToboggan

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

9.6 from Connelly, which is really high. I believe it is tallied as expected wins. So a 90% of beating Colorado is .9 of a win. If you had a 90% chance of winning all 12 games you would have a total of 10.8 expected wins. Given our road games (we are favored in every single game except OSU where he gives us close to 50%) 9.6 expected wins is very good, high chance of 11 or 12 wins in the regular season.

scparksDPT

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:02 PM ^

I think this team is 1 win better than last years. Even on the road for 3 tough games, I'd take the over.

I think I like the under on Nebraska, FWIW.

LKLIII

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:08 PM ^

Yeah--I'd agree & take the over for Michigan at 10.5.  I actually think we are about 2 games better than last year, but considering that small but tough road schedule against Iowa, MSU and OSU, I feel like one of those +2 games compared to 2015 will get dropped due to a tough road loss--hence the overall +1 win prediction.

 

I assume these O/U numbers are just for the regular season and don't count wins in a Big Ten Championsip or bowl/playoff game.

UM2BO

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:09 PM ^

Extremely surprised to see OSU at 9. I wish they had more hype, seems like they can only do better than expected this year. No weight on their shoulders this year and a ton on ours. Thats the only thing I hate about all this hype.

markp

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:23 PM ^

I can see where you're coming from.  However, I trust Harbaugh to get this team to play up to (and exceed) those lofty expectations.  It's an alpha/ultra-competitive mentality that Harbuagh has always had and he seems to be able to instill it in others.

UM2BO

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:30 PM ^

I agree with you. The only thing I worry about is... Harbaugh has never even won a conference championship. He had some good years and has proven to be a great NFL coach. What if we are setting our expectations too high due to the media just trying to sell press? We talk like we are on bama level or OSU level when we arent. What if those expectations arent realistic? Thats why those coachs have won so many championships with different schools. I am really excited for this year and the years to come. I love the strength of the B1G and the coaches that its made up of. I just feel like the hype has been built so much when we havent done anything to show for it.

grumbler

August 3rd, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^

Harbaugh won 2 conference championships in seven years of coaching at the college level before coming to Michigan, and another conference championship in 4 years with the 49ers.  The myth he never won a conference championship mystifies me; it is so obviously wrong on the face of it.  

mgoblue0970

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^

Wow...

No Connor Cook.

3 new starters on O-line.

Calhoun is gone.

It's not like the cupboard is bare in EL, they have 4 new wideouts that are just gonna blow people away in time, but really, you think they're going to have 9 wins?  This is the year, if any, Sparty assumes their traditional spot for Thanksgiving at the kiddle table.

Thank goodness for the Furman game then!  Ha!  They're gonna need it.

Bocheezu

August 3rd, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

were Maryland and Purdue.  They can be scary, but they actually don't win that much.  Dantonio has never lost to them (7-0), and that includes a win the year MSU went 7-5 with Maxwell (2012).  You can be in a close game with IU, but you have to be pretty bad to actually lose to them.

LSAClassOf2000

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

It could very well be the effect of some hype, but if you ask me now, I think I would rather enthusiastically take the over now. I think we beat one rival at least  and all of the other games not played against OSU right now seem like they should favor us to varying degrees. Granted, that's based on a feeling and zero hard data, so take it for what it is worth, but I am pretty confident today about our season. 

Wolverine Devotee

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:15 PM ^

Nebraska's best case scenario is 7-5. 

I can see them losing to Illinois again and Indiana if they don't show up on defense. 

mGrowOld

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:28 PM ^

Michgan over 7.5 (bet $500)

Cleveland Browns over 6.5 (also bet $500)

So I lost on the vig.

Remember on these bets it's regular season only - no bowls - so they are basically saying Michigan will win all but one ot it's games this year.

JayMo4

August 3rd, 2016 at 3:43 PM ^

I can at least picture a scenario where MSU and Iowa slip below 8 wins. I have a really hard time figuring out how OSU could win fewer than 9.

I REALLY hope to see it happen, but...

WichitanWolverine

August 3rd, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^

Seems like OSU's floor is probably 9 with losses to OU, MSU, UM. Over seems safe.

I don't like us at 10.5. I'd take us at 10.

And Nebraska plays Oregon, @OSU, @Iowa, @Indiana, @Wisconsin. 10 seems like a real stretch for them.

Tuebor

August 3rd, 2016 at 5:13 PM ^

Under on Michigan.  I think 10 wins are more likely than 11 especially with @MSU, @Iowa, and @OSU.  I'd love to be wrong here.

Under of Nebraska.  Maybe I'll be wrong but the West seems like a charlie foxtrot and I don't see Nebraska making a big improvement from Riley 1.0 to Riley 2.0.

Over on Ohio State.  If they get 9 wins you get your bet back so really the question is will OSU only win 8 games?  I think the answer that is no, they will win more.

Over on MSU and Iowa.   MSU and Iowa are going to get more than 7 wins and if they only get 8 wins you get your bet back.

 

 

 

 

Tuebor

August 4th, 2016 at 9:40 AM ^

Iowa has either the number 1 or number 2 returning QB depending on your feelings towards JT Barrett.  They miss MSU and OSU.  They get Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Michigan at home.  Their toughest road games are @Minnesota and @PSU. 

 

I'd be shocked if Iowa won fewer than 8 games.