New odds on Harbaugh from SportsBook
https://www.sportsbook.ag/sbk/sportsbook4/home.sbk?categoryId=1002
Gives Michigan the same odds as Harbaugh staying with SF.
EDIT: Odds starting to move in Michigan's favor.
EDIT TO THE EDIT: Odds significantly moving in Michigan's favor.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
those odds must be turrible.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:04 AM ^
Hahahahahaha
Man were so fucked.
I said if in the other thread and I'll say it again here, we need to start making our peace with be prospect of Schiano.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 8th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^
Why does anyone think that Schiano is anywhere NEAR the top of the list of candidates that Hackett's has on his board? Random hearsay from people not inside the program does not mean much at all at this point, and there is no logical reason that Hackett's would even be considering Schiano right now.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:05 AM ^
that's it then. Better call Les.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:26 AM ^
Or Saul
December 8th, 2014 at 10:05 AM ^
Are no way in hell?? Because that's the odds he ends up in SF.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^
is zero chance he stays in SF.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
Odds are better that he doesn't coach anywhere in 2015. Ouch
December 8th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
The odds are +600 for Michigan. Roughly means 6-1 (bet $100 to win $600). Raiders are -200 (bet $200 to win $100).
December 8th, 2014 at 10:08 AM ^
The odds of him "not coaching anywhere in 2015" are better than the odds of him coaching at Michigan...
That seems... unlikely to be true.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:26 AM ^
Just another bucket of money for the house...nothing to see here.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^
A photo with Jim and Raider's owner exchanging pleasantries and everyone jumps to conclusions.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^
Game over then. He's headed to Oakland. I wonder what the hell happened exactly.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
They most likely offered him complete control and since that is what is the draw back to college for Jim, complete control in the NFL is greater than complete control at Michigan. This is why I never believed (or still don't believe) that Harbaugh winds up at Michigan. One of the Jets, Giants, Oakland, Chicago, maybe Miami, are going to offer him control and the second that happens Michigan loses its biggest plus and he does what he has always wanted to do and continues to coach in the NFL.
December 8th, 2014 at 1:30 PM ^
I'm just not sure the Davis family can keep from meddling.
I'm not suggesting the Raiders wouldn't offer Harbaugh "total control," I just wouldn't believe such an offer. Meddling has been a recurring theme with the Davis family.
And I imagine Harbaugh is aware of this.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:25 AM ^
Stupid double post. I guess I'll just say I want Harbaugh here obviously. I just will not believe it until it happens.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:13 AM ^
The odds Harbaugh does not coach next year anywhere are higher than the odds he goes to Michigan or stays in SF. I'm calling BS on these odds based off of that.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^
That's 1500 ours was 600.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^
The +1500 you're referring to is the odds he coaches any other NCAA program. There's another entry called "Does Not Coach in 2015 Season" with odds listed at +250. Which seems bonkers to me. Harbaugh isn't the type of guy to have a grudge so bad with management that he ends up not even coaching next year...he'll either coach (whether the 49ers like it or not), or he'll be traded/fired and hired by someone else.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^
You guys do understand that the books are in the business to make money right? These odds have shifted all over the place and means nothing. They don't have any insider info, they are just moving the lines to get money. Nothing to see here, carry on with your day. /happy thoughts.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
people willing to put money down on an outcome. These kind of indicators have proven to be very solid predictors of outcomes, most recently for election winners.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:56 AM ^
Elections have polling and other factors that can be taken into account. This has really only the mind of JIM HARBAUGH to take into account and I'm sorry I don't think anyone knows what is truly going on in there besides Jim himself.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^
Considering the books initially took down the wager because they were worried "others knew more than we did," it doesn't look good for them to put them back up. More telling is the fact that they put them up with Michigan, the most heavily-bet item, at 6:1 after money brought it down to 2:1.
Looks like they know something others don't and they fully expect to reap the benefits of heavy action on Michigan...
December 8th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
they don't care what happens, because their profit is the vig, not that action. The line moves when the betting is unbalanced and the casino is at risk of losing a lot of money.
My guess is that last week, @ 6-1, with the media being overly positive on Harbaugh, a lot of people threw money for Habaugh to M, moving the odds to 2-1. Then Vegas shut it down, calculated their risk and at the same time, Sunday's news was negative for Harbaugh to Michigan and when they opened, a lot of people thought 2-1 was easy, since Harbaugh was not coming to M and the line moved up again.
Just supply and demand.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^
I understand how the books work. What I'm saying is they initially shut it down out of concern for a significant knowledge imbalance, notably because all of the money was pouring in on Michigan.
Why re-offer the line at 6:1, knowing it is likely significant chunks will be thrown at it, unless you're confident you'll be retaining that money?
December 8th, 2014 at 10:31 AM ^
to BlackJack
December 8th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^
Jimmy is doing a great job of using UM to get want he really wants. This entire time you guys were Harbaugh or bust, when you should have been Schiano or bust.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^
I'll bust something that's for sure if Schiano is hired.
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 8th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^
This is not a bet that can made using really any statistical info or matchup ratings. It's one where only inside info or bets made from personal preferences play a role. The line is made less off of precise estimates and more off of guesses and where the money is going to strategically even things out to simply pull a profit. It's not a typical bet and should not be used to gauge probability one way or the other.
December 8th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^
I don't see how Harbaugh would let himself get dragged into the Raiders black-hole vortex, just to stay in the Bay Area. He might value his family connections that much, but if so, that's certainly giving up a lot to stay close to what he calls home.
Might be beside the point, but both John Harbaugh and his wife have most of their extended families in Michigan. While it would be great to have Jim coaching Michigan, in some respects, John could be even greater.
And he doesn't bring any baggage...except a Super Bowl ring.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^
Dear god I will downvote every single person that ever mentions John as a candidate. Lets just bring back Bo from the dead while we are at it, get Dantonio to coach our defense and Urban for the offense because that coaching staff has the same likelihood of John Harbaugh being the head coach at Michigan next year.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^
I posted this the other day in another thread...
Now I know this is a little crazy, but hear me out. I think we might actually have a better shot at landing John instead of Jim.
1- He has already won a Super Bowl. There is nothing left for him to accomplish in the NFL, unless he wants another ring. And speaking of that ring, has anyone seen the inscription inside the band? The Team The Team The Team. So the guy obviously has some affection for Michigan Football (or at least for Bo).
2- When he was asked about taking the Michigan job a few months ago, he didn't outright deny it. In fact, his statement seemed to leave the door open quite a bit. I'm paraphrasing but it was something to the effect of "I won't pursue that job while my friend Brady Hoke is the coach".
So maybe Jim stays in the NFL until he gets his ring, and John comes here to beat the ever loving crap out of sparty and urbs.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^
Yes incredibly succesful coaches often leave the place where they are incredibly succesful at what is considered the highest level of their calling because they have won one championship. That's why Bellichik is coaching in college at Navy or went back to save the Browns and Saban is at Texas.
Oh wait? That's not what happens? These guys are competitive and want to win and leave their legacy? John is currently in the midst of one of the best starts to a head coaching record of all time, he is the only coach to win a playoff game in his first 5 seasons, currently has a 9-4 record in the playoff putting him 18th all time already in terms of number of wins and 18th in win percentage (with only 5 guys in front of him who have coached more than 10 playoff games). He hasn't had a losing season yet and only two with sub 10 wins. He isn't just walking away because he believes he has already accomplished everything he can.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:58 PM ^
you're saying is that any successful NFL coach will not come back to college.
Ok. Bunch of people on this board disagree with you, but you're entitled to your opinion. Even if you come off as a huge asshole when you're stating it.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:05 AM ^
Guys this doesn't mean anything it's just a gambling site.
Oh, hey, they just moved Michigan from +600 to +500. IT'S HAPPENING.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^
They set odds at where they think they will get people to bet money. It moved from 6-1 to 2-1 because a ton of money came in on Michigan and it looked like maybe people knew something. The fact the it is back at 6-1 shows that in order to get money on Michigan they had to give better odds meaning that after their investigation they decided the move in money was not based on actual changing of the situation. It kind of throws cold water on the whole deal is already in place idea. It doesn't mean he is not coming (he isn't but thats just this guys opinion) but it does mean those who think it might already be done are off.
December 8th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
Odds are moving again! Has gone from 6-1 to 4-1!
December 8th, 2014 at 11:39 AM ^
It's quickly dropped down to +400 for Michigan. Soon, it will be down to +200 and they'll pull it again.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
but I upvoted you because of your avatar!
December 8th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
+300 now..
December 8th, 2014 at 11:40 AM ^
Now +300. That was fast!
December 8th, 2014 at 11:47 AM ^
Ha- If Harbaugh doesnt come the athletic budget will be cut due to all their doners losing money on this bet!
December 8th, 2014 at 11:56 AM ^
So ... It's dropped all the way to +300 ... If they knew he wasn't going to Michigan for a fact ... They would leave it at +800 and make tons of money
Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad
December 8th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^
You don't know how odds work. They don't "leave it" anywhere.
They set odds that they think will get the most action, and as people bet the odds move according to the bets placed.
The odds are not an indicator of what Vegas thinks will happen. They aren't a prediction. Odds are formulated in order to simultaneously maximize the house's chance of winning while also maximizing the number of people who will bet on those odds.
If a bunch of people start betting Harbaugh to Michigan then the odds will necessarily move that direction. It doesn't mean Vegas suddenly thinks it's more likely to happen. It's a reflection of what the bettors think is most likely to happen.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^
both started at +600.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^
One thing I'm surprised people aren't talking about as a possibility is Harbaugh going to the Bears. If he wants to stay in the NFL but doesn't want to go to a circus like the Raiders the Bears could possibly be the next logical choice for him. This is all assuming he wants to stay in the NFL.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:15 PM ^
The Bears would be a better destination, but it seems unlikely that Trestman will be fired after just two years.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^
I'd be very shocked if he wasn't fired. His offense has regressed tremendously and it's not all on the shoulders of Cutler. The league has adapted to Trestman already after his semi-good first year as coach and I don't think Trestman is good enough to adapt along with the league to stay ahead.
December 8th, 2014 at 12:22 PM ^
Did the odds just move from 6-1 to 3-1 in 4 hrs. this morning? Isn't that a bit strange? I wonder where it will stop?
Go Blue!