unWavering

December 8th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

Why does anyone think that Schiano is anywhere NEAR the top of the list of candidates that Hackett's has on his board? Random hearsay from people not inside the program does not mean much at all at this point, and there is no logical reason that Hackett's would even be considering Schiano right now.

ak47

December 8th, 2014 at 10:15 AM ^

They most likely offered him complete control and since that is what is the draw back to college for Jim, complete control in the NFL is greater than complete control at Michigan.  This is why I never believed (or still don't believe) that Harbaugh winds up at Michigan.  One of the Jets, Giants, Oakland, Chicago, maybe Miami, are going to offer him control and the second that happens Michigan loses its biggest plus and he does what he has always wanted to do and continues to coach in the NFL.

In reply to by SECcashnassadvantage

CompleteLunacy

December 8th, 2014 at 11:06 AM ^

The +1500 you're referring to is the odds he coaches any other NCAA program. There's another entry called "Does Not Coach in 2015 Season" with odds listed at +250. Which seems bonkers to me. Harbaugh isn't the type of guy to have a grudge so bad with management that he ends up not even coaching next year...he'll either coach (whether the 49ers like it or not), or he'll be traded/fired and hired by someone else.

Brown Bear

December 8th, 2014 at 10:21 AM ^

You guys do understand that the books are in the business to make money right? These odds have shifted all over the place and means nothing. They don't have any insider info, they are just moving the lines to get money. Nothing to see here, carry on with your day. /happy thoughts.

vnperk

December 8th, 2014 at 10:29 AM ^

Considering the books initially took down the wager because they were worried "others knew more than we did," it doesn't look good for them to put them back up. More telling is the fact that they put them up with Michigan, the most heavily-bet item, at 6:1 after money brought it down to 2:1.

Looks like they know something others don't and they fully expect to reap the benefits of heavy action on Michigan...

jblaze

December 8th, 2014 at 10:50 AM ^

they don't care what happens, because their profit is the vig, not that action. The line moves when the betting is unbalanced and the casino is at risk of losing a lot of money.

My guess is that last week, @ 6-1, with the media being overly positive on Harbaugh, a lot of people threw money for Habaugh to M, moving the odds to 2-1. Then Vegas shut it down, calculated their risk and at the same time, Sunday's news was negative for Harbaugh to Michigan and when they opened, a lot of people thought 2-1 was easy, since Harbaugh was not coming to M and the line moved up again. 

Just supply and demand.

vnperk

December 8th, 2014 at 11:04 AM ^

I understand how the books work. What I'm saying is they initially shut it down out of concern for a significant knowledge imbalance, notably because all of the money was pouring in on Michigan.

Why re-offer the line at 6:1, knowing it is likely significant chunks will be thrown at it, unless you're confident you'll be retaining that money? 

Lester

December 8th, 2014 at 10:39 AM ^

Jimmy is doing a great job of using UM to get want he really wants.  This entire time you guys were Harbaugh or bust, when you should have been Schiano or bust. 

JHendo

December 8th, 2014 at 10:41 AM ^

This is not a bet that can made using really any statistical info or matchup ratings.  It's one where only inside info or bets made from personal preferences play a role.  The line is made less off of precise estimates and more off of guesses and where the money is going to strategically even things out to simply pull a profit.  It's not a typical bet and should not be used to gauge probability one way or the other.

BIGBLUEWORLD

December 8th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^

I don't see how Harbaugh would let himself get dragged into the Raiders black-hole vortex, just to stay in the Bay Area.  He might value his family connections that much, but if so, that's certainly giving up a lot to stay close to what he calls home.

Might be beside the point, but both John Harbaugh and his wife have most of their extended families in Michigan.  While it would be great to have Jim coaching Michigan, in some respects, John could be even greater.  

And he doesn't bring any baggage...except a Super Bowl ring.

 

ak47

December 8th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^

Dear god I will downvote every single person that ever mentions John as a candidate.  Lets just bring back Bo from the dead while we are at it, get Dantonio to coach our defense and Urban for the offense because that coaching staff has the same likelihood of John Harbaugh being the head coach at Michigan next year.

The_Mad Hatter

December 8th, 2014 at 11:51 AM ^

I posted this the other day in another thread...

Now I know this is a little crazy, but hear me out.  I think we might actually have a better shot at landing John instead of Jim.  

1- He has already won a Super Bowl.  There is nothing left for him to accomplish in the NFL, unless he wants another ring.  And speaking of that ring, has anyone seen the inscription inside the band?  The Team The Team The Team.  So the guy obviously has some affection for Michigan Football (or at least for Bo).

2- When he was asked about taking the Michigan job a few months ago, he didn't outright deny it.  In fact, his statement seemed to leave the door open quite a bit.  I'm paraphrasing but it was something to the effect of "I won't pursue that job while my friend Brady Hoke is the coach".  

So maybe Jim stays in the NFL until he gets his ring, and John comes here to beat the ever loving crap out of sparty and urbs.

ak47

December 8th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^

Yes incredibly succesful coaches often leave the place where they are incredibly succesful at what is considered the highest level of their calling because they have won one championship.  That's why Bellichik is coaching in college at Navy or went back to save the Browns and Saban is at Texas.

Oh wait? That's not what happens? These guys are competitive and want to win and leave their legacy?  John is currently in the midst of one of the best starts to a head coaching record of all time, he is the only coach to win a playoff game in his first 5 seasons, currently has a 9-4 record in the playoff putting him 18th all time already in terms of number of wins and 18th in win percentage (with only 5 guys in front of him who have coached more than 10 playoff games). He hasn't had a losing season yet and only two with sub 10 wins.  He isn't just walking away because he believes he has already accomplished everything he can.

ak47

December 8th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^

They set odds at where they think they will get people to bet money.  It moved from 6-1 to 2-1 because a ton of money came in on Michigan and it looked like maybe people knew something.  The fact the it is back at 6-1 shows that in order to get money on Michigan they had to give better odds meaning that after their investigation they decided the move in money was not based on actual changing of the situation.  It kind of throws cold water on the whole deal is already in place idea.  It doesn't mean he is not coming (he isn't but thats just this guys opinion) but it does mean those who think it might already be done are off.

TheLastHarbaugh

December 8th, 2014 at 12:21 PM ^

You don't know how odds work. They don't "leave it" anywhere.

They set odds that they think will get the most action, and as people bet the odds move according to the bets placed.

The odds are not an indicator of what Vegas thinks will happen. They aren't a prediction. Odds are formulated in order to simultaneously maximize the house's chance of winning while also maximizing the number of people who will bet on those odds.

If a bunch of people start betting Harbaugh to Michigan then the odds will necessarily move that direction. It doesn't mean Vegas suddenly thinks it's more likely to happen. It's a reflection of what the bettors think is most likely to happen.

madmaxweb

December 8th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^

One thing I'm surprised people aren't talking about as a possibility is Harbaugh going to the Bears. If he wants to stay in the NFL but doesn't want to go to a circus like the Raiders the Bears could possibly be the next logical choice for him. This is all assuming he wants to stay in the NFL.

madmaxweb

December 8th, 2014 at 12:19 PM ^

I'd be very shocked if he wasn't fired. His offense has regressed tremendously and it's not all on the shoulders of Cutler. The league has adapted to Trestman already after his semi-good first year as coach and I don't think Trestman is good enough to adapt along with the league to stay ahead.