RR is on the frontpage.
spoiler alert: i linked this
RR is on the frontpage.
Really expected Oregon to jump to #1. Will interesting to see if Mizzou leapfrogs Sparty if they manage to beat Nebraska next week.
Both lose - who cares
MSU lose, Mizzou win - yes
MSU win, Mizzou lose - no
Both win - not likely
is a Buckeye, but I got to respect him for defending Boise St. and TCU. IMO, #3 is probably a glass ceiling for both teams since they're a non-AQ team and it's a shame to see what they could do in the National Championship game. Both teams can play with anybody in the country.
Agree they could play with anyone in the country but I don't believe they could do it week in and week out.
What is this "week-in, week-out" argument that everyone uses? No team plays difficult games every week. It's not BSU's schedule that is keeping them from being #1 in the human polls - it's their uniforms. Their schedule is tougher than Nebraska's, but I guarantee you that if Nebraska were #3, and one of the top two teams lost, Nebraska would move up. I chose Nebraska, but I could also point to a team that passed BSU: Oregon. Comparable schedule (probably weaker, actually, at this point), but moves above BSU because of their conference. How many caveats does the MNC need? We are told it's the top two teams in the country. But then there are so many unwritten rules that people make up as they feel the need. The two best teams in the country. . . But not if they're in the same conference (see, UM & OSU a few years ago). And not if they've already been there and lost a few times recently (an argument I've heard as to why OSU shouldn't be in it in recent years). And not if they're in a non-AQ conference and there are at least two AQ conferences with unbeaten teams. This is getting absurd. If they're the best or second-best team in the country, that should be it. The "week-in and week-out" argument, or whatever other arguments are out there, are just ways to justify some prejudice that many fans of AQ schools (and most sports media people) have; maybe it's some kind of worry about maintaining power. I don't know. Whatever it is, if Michigan can't be in the top two, I'm happy when chaos reigns in the BCS.
The other thing I find funny about this argument, is that people use it to justify moving a 1-loss team above BSU or TCU. Ironically, if a team has 1-loss, they obviously couldn't "do it" week in and week out either. The BCS, and the voters are a joke.
This is a crazy argument. Are you serious that you think Boise State has a tougher schedule than Nebraska?
Toughest Boise State games:
1. Va Tech (who lost to a .500 FCS team the following week)
2. Oregon St (a .500 team in the Pac 10)
3....... I don't know, Nevada? A similarly hyped team that beat Cal and a bunch of traffic cones, except when they lost to traffic cone Hawaii?
Toughest Nebraska games:
1. Oklahoma State (Undefeated until this weekend)
2. Missouri (Undefeated, and just beat the #1 BCS taem)
3. Texas (at least as good as the likes of Oregon St and/or Va Tech)
4. Big 12 champ game (will probably be higher on this list depending on who it is)
The fact is, when you play nobody, that just gives you more time to prepare for the couple "big games" you do have. Boise St or TCU can run 4 plays on each side of the ball for the remainder of the season and still win games by 4 scores. They could start preparing for a bowl game today! When Boise St plays punching bag Louisiana Tech on Tuesday, do you think they even have to give it a 50% effort for a victory? Probably not even that, and that is the point.
Western Kentucky, Idaho (from the WAC), SD St, Kansas, Colorado. Nebraska does not play difficult teams "week-in and week-out". If BSU is expected to win all its games because it has easy weeks to prepare for the hard weeks, then Nebraska is not far from that expectation either. Just win the ones you note above is all it (and other top AQ teams) needs to do. Really, Texas was the first "big" game that Nebraska had, so they should have been preparing for it since the summer, if teams really can ignore weak opponents. But of course that's not the case. Just ask Texas. Texas did try to give just 50% for a victory (UCLA, Iowa State), and lost. It played well against a top team (OK), but otherwise, not so much. BSU doesn't do that. The only close games they've had are against quality teams. So, I disagree: if you ignore a weak team, if you give 50%, you lose. Does BSU have the strongest schedule in the country? Obviously not. But it's equally obvious, no matter your schedule, you can't consistently go undefeated by preparing for and playing hard only in the "big" games.
Auburn will lose to Bama no doubt. Then will BSU finally sniff the top 2?
Only if Bama has another loss by then. I think an undefeated BCS conf champ or a 1-loss SEC champ(b/c the media has a love affair with the SEC) easily jump BSU. If all the BCS conf champ have one loss, then I think they have an argument.
We've already seen BSU and TCU get jumped by undefeated BCS teams, but I think this is the year that BSU (and TCU) don't get overlooked for a one-loss BCS team, simply because there's been so much buzz about their starting rankings this year and finally giving them a chance. I think that narrative will drive voters to keep an undefeated BSU and TCU above any one-lossers.
They're going to have a big chance to show people what they can do when they face an undefeated Utah team
It'll be interesting to see how far the winner of that game moves up in the BCS rankings. Auburn jumped from #4 to #1 in the BCS after beating #6 LSU last week. TCU and Utah are currently ranked #4 and #8 in the BCS respectively, and both teams have a decent chance of moving up this week with #2 Oregon, #5 Sparty, and #6 Missouri playing tough games this coming weekend. If both TCU and Utah take care of business this week, I wonder if the winner of their game the following week will get the same amount of respect that Auburn got in the polls.
You should be a fan of one of those teams.
Looks like its shaping up this way
SEC champ if Auburn will be #1
Oregon will be #2 if keep winning
Next in line in order: undefeated Boise St, undefeated TCU, undefeated Mizzou, 1-loss Bama, undefeated MSU, undefeated Utah
- If chalk holds, it will Auburn v Oregon in the MyNCG
- Mizzou is only going to keep moving up if they keep winning as they'll have to beat a highly regarded Neb and a Big 12 title game, where as Mich St from this point on will have to beat a 2-loss Iowa (which will be a 3-loss Iowa is Sparty is successful) and a woeful Penn St. Not enough to impress voters. MSU's chance lies in: Boise and TCU losing, Auburn beating Alabama, Mizzou losing, and Oregon losing. I don't think Sparty jumps Boise or TCU if they both go undefeated.
- If Auburn loses to anybody except Alabama, that opens the door to Boise / TCU.
- If Auburn loses to Alabama & Bama wins the SEC championship game, 'Bama might jump a whole bunch of non-AQ undefeateds since the major component of hte BCS formula is the polls, and pollsters love them some Nick Saban ESS EEEE CEEE Speeed
I'm sorry there is a 0% chance Sparty doesn't jump Boise and TCU if they go unbeaten. They might not have beaten OSU, but that would mean wins over us, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and ND. That will trump Virginia Tech, Nevada, Oregon St, and 9 dead squirrels.
VT, Nevada or OSU (NTOSU) and they're probably worse than 5/9 dead squirrels
MSU isn't getting the respect out of the voters and voters are a notorious lot for not moving teams down if they don't lose. I'm not arguing whether MSU deserves to jump BSU or TCU, what I'm saying is how the polls are stacking up at this point (and we're getting late in the game for switches based on week to week performances, i.e. teams are getting slotted in assuming they're going to win out the rest of the year), MSU is behind Boise & TCU in the voting polls, and the computers have them about equal with TCU, maybe a little ahead. TCU is actually going to get a significant bump in computers in a couple weeks when/if they play an undefeated Utah. As much as it hurts a Big ten fan to say this, an undefeated Big Ten team is not going to jump an undefeated SEC, a 1-loss SEC, an undefeated Pac 10 with a hyperdrive offense, or a undefeated Big XII who played all the perceived big boys in their conference (and maybe twice if Oklahoma or Texas manages to win the Big XII south), where our Big Ten undefeated didn't play all the "perceived" big boys in the conference. This is all in reference to how I percieve the avg BCS voter perceptions. MSU's computer rankings aren't going to get better-- they're going to get worse compared to Mizzou and maybe worse compared to TCU.... you have to get over the emotions of being a Big Ten fan in this.
I had a full reply full of witty commentary, reasoned analysis, and documented past cases to back my theory up, and then I realized that the one thing I am not going to do is argue about what would happen if MSU goes undefeated because then the world would explode and all this would be moot anyway.
Mizzou and sparty and Auburn all lose before the end of the year. I think Oregon has the absolute best shot to go undefeated during the regular season. (Sparty getting to avoid OSU is a scheduling joke - but I still see them losing a game).
However, this is exactly why Boise and TCU are simply pretenders to the BCS. They have a non-schedule regular season. Going unbeaten in their conference doesn't mean shit - I would think 5 SEC teams and probably 4 B10 teams would go unbeaten playing in both of their conferences.
This is just another reason the BCS sucks ...
Go Blue !
First off, I think mizzou loses to Nebraska this week, pretty much for sure. I'd put it at 90%. Second, I think the real threat to Boise getting jumped that no one is talking about is TCU. Look how close TCU is to BSU in the standings, the consider that Boise's strongest opponent left is ranked ~23rd and TCU is sitting there with a top 10 Utah team left to factor into their strength of schedule.
And I agree with the majority that Auburn is going to lose to Bama, at least, if not 1 to 2 more teams.
I'm sorry but the sight of MSU in the top 5 of the BCS almost assures us of even more smug from King Smug himself.
If that is humanly possible.
But there's no way Sparty is a top 5 team. No way.
They've won often this season, but it's been ugly and often.
...but they do have a top five record. As the only undefeated Big Ten team, they deserve to be ranked in the top five on performance so far. I still detest all things Sparty, especially Spartybragging and Sparty Juggernaut Theory, but I will give them credit for having a great year eight games into the season.
That being said, I fully expect them to lose at least one and maybe two by the end of the season, and fall out of the top five. They could even fall out of the top ten. Teams I think would beat Sparty without a lot of trouble:
Auburn, Bama, LSU (even with Forrest Gump coaching), OK, Nebraska, Mizzou, USC, Oregon, Stanford, Iowa, OSU (except when "faxing it in" as they did in Madison).
Also, though I'm not convinced they are better, BSU and TCU will stay in the top five. And someone from the ACC, possibly FSU, will probably get a "courtesy" top ten ranking from the Southern and Eastern voters. I think that out of all of these teams, a large enough number will play well enough to keep MSU out of the top ten by the end of the season.
But I do think they deserve a high ranking right now.
That's exactly what I meant, but you said it better Tater.
MSU deserves to be ranked where they are right now because they're 8-0, but based on how they've played against who've they've played, there is no way Sparty is a top 5 team, IMO.
I think MSU will lose to Iowa, probably lose another game they shouldn't and finish somewhere in the bottom of the top 25. Saint D will be saved for yet another year, only to finish 6-7 next year with no less than 5 felony arrests.
I hate all things Sparty as much as anyone, but I disagree with your assessment that "based on how they've played against who've they've played, there is no way Sparty is a Top 5 team." Sure they haven't all be dominant blowouts, but what team HAS killed every opponent en route to an undefeated season. The further they go, the bigger the target on their back is.
They were getting shillacked in the first half last weekend in their first real road game. They went into halftime, re-grouped and came out like a veteran team. They made the plays necessary to get the win. I hate to admit it, but that was a bigtime win.
I need to wash my mouth out with Iodine.
College football fans love being part of and reading the discussions on this topic. I could read it all day.
Think how amazing would this be if more than the top two teams actually ended up playing for something tangible?
With 3 weeks of No. 1 ranked teams being beaten, this year has to be the year of underdogs.
That being said - I don't think BSU or TCU deserve a shot at the NC game - given their schedule is so much weaker than any SEC/ B10/ ACC conference game. If they played in any one of these conferences, prettry sure they'd be 2-3 loss teams at the minimum
a 0 loss team at the minimum. Only OSU can probably beat BSU/TCU. MSU is worse than both teams. Ditto with Wisconsin and Iowa. SEC, only Auburn and Alabama can beat them. ACC, BSU can beat them all since VT is probably the best team of the bunch. Big 12, probably Mizzou and OU can beat them. Pac-10, Oregon and maybe Stanford can beat them (then again, BSU beat Oregon twice). Big East, no one can beat them.
BSU and TCU are good and they deserve respect.
BSU has done one thing that few other teams have done this year: play consistently. If there's any team that has shown it can win "week-in and week-out", it's BSU. Sure, Auburn has a tough schedule, but it took perenial powerhouse Clemson to OT and beat Kentucky by 3. The last three weeks, the #1 team in the country (all from AQ conferences, of course), lost when it mattered the most. BSU beats the good teams on its schedule and destroys the weak teams; its starters are usually done by the third quarter. The inconsistency the other top teams have shown this year suggests that maybe they'd end up with a loss whether they were playing in the SEC or the MAC. Week after week, year after year, BSU does nothing but win. Say what you want about its schedule, there's not many teams in the country that can do that in any conference.
not sure if serious.
Clemson is not Minnesota-bad, but beating them in OT is not something the #1 team in the country should be forced to do.
Your assumptions are based on current schedules - I mean - when you play week in and week out in a tough conference like B10, SEC, ACC, PAC 10 your players will suffer from fatigue (mental and physical), injuries which hampers the consistency of any team.
I will assume "tough conference" and ACC in the same sentence is just a typographical error. Regarding the rest: each of the "tough" conferences has plenty of weak sauce at the bottom, to give the top feeders breaks during the year. No team in the country plays a quality opponent "week-in and week-out". Every conference has cupcakes. Every top team schedules pathetic non-conference teams. Are BSU's cupcakes more cupcakey than some other teams'? Sure. But not to the extent that their schedule should be treated as if it's a bunch of high school teams, whereas the AQ schools play nothing but all-stars.
The problem isn't that BSU/TCU would get 2-3 losses in one of the big conferences, because there's no way of knowing how good they really are. The problem is that half of the major conference teams would get 0 losses in their non-AQ conferences. That's the reason, in turn, for the former problem of not knowing how good BSU/TCU really are.
Don't you love how on this historic night where we have a WAC team, a MWC team, and the best MSU team in 40 years the BCS website longs for a return to normalcy and a restoration of the college football hierarchy by putting us on the front page?
I think Oregon has around a 60% shot to go undefeated. They still have to play @ USC and OSU, and Arizona. I think Bama and Auburn both end up 11-1. If Bama beats Auburn, does Bama get to play in the SEC title game? I don't know if a 12-1 SEC team will jump State. If State beats Iowa they will probably go undefeated. Boise St. won't lose, and either Utah or TCU will probably end up undefeated. I don't think Mizzou has a very good shot at going undefeated, so I'm leaving them out.
So, Boise will almost certainly be undefeated. Oregon and MSU have great shots to do it too. There will probably be a 12-1 SEC team. And then there will probably be another non-BCS undefeated team. So what happens then? Oregon-MSU(I'm assuming MSU wins out, which is the worst case scenario)? I don't think voters will put a 12-1 SEC team in front of MSU, even though there's no way MSU is better than Auburn or Bama.
We have to root really hard for Oregon and Auburn now, because MSU would probably be in front of Boise and a 12-1 SEC team if they go unbeaten.
I'm not sure MSU would be ahead of a 12-1 SEC team. If MSU wins out, that probably means only Wisconsin will remain ranked (and maybe UM) from their schedule. I'm not sure, looking at who they beat and where (yesterday's game was the first time they played outside of MI this season) that the BCS computers would reward them with a shot at the MNC. Plus, they still have to beat Iowa this weekend as well as survive the inevitable lulls and traps the last few weeks still lay before them.
Personally, I think Oregon will lose to either Arizona or Oregon St., and either Boise or TCU will play the SEC champion for the title. Dogs and Cats will then live in harmony.
"I'm not sure MSU would be ahead of a 12-1 SEC team"
Completely disagree. If State finishes undefeated, they will be in the NTG ahead of a 1-loss team. Without question.
What I'm wondering is, will an undefeated MSU jump ahead of an undefeated BSU and/or TCU? My gut feeling is, yes.....they will have beaten Iowa and Penn Schtate on the road and that will leave an impression on the voters.
i'm officially rooting for Auburn and Oregon because -- you know -- their offense is dead.
I know that the feeling is they are a joke and don't deserve anything, but the comparisons to '02 OSU and '94 colorado aren't that far off, and both were nat'l champs. Granted they haven't played like a top 5 team against NW for the first 45 minutes and for the first half of illinois, but the reality is only 7 teams are 8-0. And for the record, even though they don't play OSU... neither have 7 teams in the big ten. They aren't the best team in the country and may not even be the best team in the big ten (OSU is good but how good is pryor really?). They have a veteren group and a favorable schedule. I don't know if they are a team of destiny or if i even know what that means, but the story lines are certainly there for a bad movie
In two weeks they play Utah, a top ten team. Assuming Utah handles AF almost as easily as TCU did, and TCU wins, any college football fan with any intelligence would be hard pressed not to move TCU up in the rankings.
Even if the above happens though, the previous thoughts from various posters on the national media and coaches, I doubt they move up. What is pretty damn funny, and yes, I realize each game is different than another, and transitive property does not mean much of anything, but the natinal media was all over Oklahoma prior to their loss, yet, Ok barely beat Air Force, and TCU stomped a mudhole in them. I don't care much for the "week-in, week-out" argument either, but the difference in scores between AF/Ok and AF/TCU is staggering. TCU, to me, deserves just as much love in the polls as BSU at this point in the season.
I'm really having a hard time with everyone's love for Auburn. They haven't beat anyone except two schizophrenic teams in LSU and USC, and barely beat a MissState team that almost lost to a terrible UAB team. LSU is extremely overrated and South Carolina looks great one week and like s*** the next. What really sucks is that they play no one else of any import until their last game with Alabama. Here's to hoping Alabama gets beat at least once more prior to that game and then beats Auburn. Maybe I'm just sick and tired of hearing about the SEC and how tough the conference is. Oregon is by far the best team in the country so far, with BSU and TCU close behind.
SEC rankings have always seemed a bit circular to me. We know the SEC teams are good, because they're ranked highly at the beginning of the season. So when they beat each other, they can all point to how they beat top ranked teams. Which shows how good they are and deserve to be highly ranked.