chance of bowl: 13.6%
New BCS standings out...
Would be a shame if Oregon got left out. I don't understand their computer numbers, but I think that they have the best shot to challenge Bama in the national title game.
From what I've heard as long as they win out and Oregon state and Stanford don't crap the bed, they will leapfrog ksu whose schedule isn't as strong to finish and whose star qb may miss some time.
But man it's going to be against one of Georgia, Florida, S. or LSU. Shit, I hope Michigan has ALL of their players back and fully healthy for that one!
Agree, but the computer numbers aren't about what's "best" but what computes.
K-State as #2 with injury to Colin Klein? Computers don't know about injury, but it's clearly a factor. If indeed Klein is out for any remaining games I suspect that'll take care of itself. Right now, barring anything really weird, it's Alabama and Oregon. Which is fitting. That game comes down to how well Alabama defensive line can penetrate into Oregon backfield to disrupt plays.
As college football fan would love to see the ducks vs Bama.
100% agree. Which is why we will undoubtably be treated to Notre Dame v Kansas State.
I think BCS stands for "Because Computers Suck"
Computers particularly suck when their human overlords don't allow them to consider anything besides whether a team won or lost. Running up the score is lame, but at the same time, there's a difference between beating a team 21-20 and beating them 52-0.
i know everyone is skeptical of k-state, but they are the real deal. best coached team in the country. oregon won't beat bama because they just don't have a defense. k-state probably won't either, but their defense at least gives them a shot.
The one that gave up over 500 yards last night? alabama would destroy them. they get a lot of takeaways, but something tells me alabama would be better at taking care of the ball than oklahoma state.
yard totals are not as important as the scoreboard (obvs). michigan moved the ball very effectvely against notre dame, but still lost because ND created turnovers at opportune times. besides, k-state held the high-flying wvu attack to 14 points, 7 of which was on a kick return. teams are averaging less than 100 yards per game on the ground against them. they've also had a lot of blow-out games which skews yardage with reserves in late. they have created 25 turnovers and only lost 4. i was very skeptical of them at first, but i started watching their games since the oklahoma game (where i thought they'd be exposed) and i have been thoroughly impressed every week since. they have a consistent offense, a defense that lulls teams into turnovers, and they just don't make mistakes. i don't think any team is better than alabama, but i do think k-state would beat oregon by controlling tempo and picking them off at opportune times (oregon is much more turnover prone, having lost the ball 18 times).
USC's ranking is ridiculous
I was just about to say that I don't get USC at all. They're a 3 loss team with zero quality wins, a top 5 loss, a top 25 loss and a bad Arizona loss. I think they're pretty appropriately ranked in the coaches and AP polls, but how does the BCS have them so high? The Harris Poll has them at 18 (too high in my opinion), USA Today at 22 and the computers have them at 23. How do they end up with a 19 ranking?
I really hope Oregon makes it over K-State. Oregon is the only team I can seriously imagine beating Bama.
Oregon is the only competitor still able to make it to the national championship game, and compete with bama
Bama and Oregon are far above the rest of the NCAA. Bama played their worst and LSU played their best, and Bama still drove through LSU like they were EMU when the game was on the line.
Oregon won on the road against USC, which has as good a starting roster as any in the NCAA, but doesn't have much depth at grunt positions due to their sanctions. They took USC's best shot, and withstood a few bad calls at inopportune times, which happens a lot to USC's visitors.
I could understand the coaches trying to give Bill Snyder a "lifetime achievement award" this year, like they did Tom Osborne in January of 1998, but I am totally flabbergasted that the computers are ranking KSU second. If KSU and ND lose a game while Bama and Oregon take care of business, it would make the last BCS "Championship" a lot cleaner.
Think there's one more BCS Championship after this year.
Pretty surprising that Michigan is not given much credit for their only losses coming to #1, #4, and #16.
Been repeated in a bunch of other threads here, but until UM notches an impressive win, it's not going to skyrocket in the polls simply because the teams that beat them have done well in their own right. Beating NW would help, but beating OSU on the road would be what UM needs to impress the AP, Coaches, and the computers.
... Is abusrd.
Our losses? To two top-5 teams and a top-20 team (all away).
No. 3 Oregon (home), @Then-No. 21 Stanford, @Unranked Arizona.
Anyways, with Northwestern being ranked that gives us a decent opportunity this weekend.
Maybe this is a stupid question, but what if all four (Bama, Oregon, KSU, ND) win out? I feel like ND would get in there, but that is based on pure speculation.
To date, KSU has had the stronger schedule, followed by ND, then Oregon. Oregon has the stronger schedule left. So, in your scenario, you'd think that Oregon has a decent shot of leapfrogging ND and KSU.
For ND to go they'd have to hope two of the other three teams lose one game while they go undefeated. I say that because they don't play a conference championship game while bama, KSU, and Oregon all will likely get that opportunity, which gives them one extra week to impress voters and the computers.
K State doesn't play a championship game, since the Big XII doesn't have 12 teams. I agree with your reasoning on Oregon going over ND though.
You are correct. Forgot that was changed recently. Seems like if they all win out it should be Bama vs Oregon.
No championship game, but they do play Texas that weekend. ND is out unless 2 of the 3 abover them lose.
Before the season ND's schedule looked like the seven circles of hell. Turned out to be not as tough as expected but their undefeated season is still pretty darn impressive. More so than Bama's on paper at least. I gotta give them props. You never know what could happen in a national championship game between them and Bama because it seems like every team that plays the Irish leaves their best game at home, including the refs.
Northwestern being ranked will make this weekend a good game, and hopefully another notch in the win column.
If USC beats ND and then wins the Pac 12 (since it is very hard to beat the same team twice in one year) and the injury to Klein of K State is bad enough for a loss then things actually get more interesting. Currently the SEC is bunched up at the bottom half of the top 10. Alabama plays Georgia in the SEC game (Auburn is not beating either team this year) so Georgia will fall as a two loss team. We could then have Florida float up to number 2.
It is possible to once again have an all SEC championship. If that happens I see the four team playoffs being restricted to one team per conference.
Pac 12 title game would be in Oregon. Can't see anyone going into Oregon and winning. That would also assume Florida wins at FSU (after watching Florida last week have to think FSU would be favoured. Even if all that happened I can't imagine they would allow another all SEC title game, especially when there would be other 1 loss teams like K-State and Oregon sitting there, especially if K-State lost because Klein was out (he was laughing on the sideline so I doubt he'll miss any games). ESPN I doubt could stomach another ratings disaster of another all SEC title game.
So you think all voters get together and give it to a one loss K State (for example) that had a late loss instead of a one loss Florida that lost much earlier? I
I would hope they would, especially if that lose came without Klein (the more I think about I have my doubts). I guess it would probably depend somewhat on whether Alabama hammered Georgia or not. I think Florida loses at FSU.
The BCS is a joke. 5 SEC teams in the top 10 and only 1 of them really deserve to be there. USC's ranking is a joke. And the fact there's several 3 loss teams in there that haven't played anywhere near as tough a schedule as we have.
Nebraska at #16 is a little too generous. Any Big Ten team this year ranked higher than the 20's is too generous.
And Northwestern joined the top 25 by not even playing. (Or were they ranked last week?)
South Carolina in the top ten is a joke, USC being ranked is a joke. This poll serves nothing but to tick me off.
The thought of Alabama and "ethical" Nick Saban winning another national title literally makes me want to pull my hair out.
I guess I understand us not being ranked despite who our losses have been to. Our best wins are against MSU and Minnesota, who each have 5 losses.
tops in the B1G:
Also the hardest conference schedule in the B1G.
So maybe not so bad at 16.
USC is being helped up by their pre-season #1 ranking, which is yet another reason why pre-season rankings are terrible.
Also, anyone who thinks we should be ranked is crazy. We are a three loss team in the B1G... not happening.
Finally, ND - like it or not - should be ranked highly. Look at that schedule. It is insane. I understand OU and USC aren't all they were supposed to be, but man that has to be one of the toughest schedules in the country. The fact that we handed them the game we played against them drives me crazy.