The Never-Too-Early NCAAB Top 25
updated today (after the NCAA's April 28 NBA draft declaration deadline).
http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/9222871/an-update…
3. Michigan State Spartans: Derrick Nix (9.9 points, 6.6 rebounds) was the only senior on the Spartans' roster, so Michigan State should be the slight favorite to win the Big Ten next season over Ohio State. Tom Izzo scored huge victories by getting shooting guard Gary Harris and forward Adreian Payne to return for another season. Both were beginning to blossom at the end of last season. Harris will have a chance to form one of the top backcourts in America along with point guard Keith Appling. The twosome combined to average 26.3 points in 2012-13. Even with the loss of Nix, Michigan State -- as always -- will be one of the country's most physical teams in the paint, with players such as Branden Dawson, who could really take off as junior. Izzo's team was good this season -- but a year from now, it could be special.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would probably rank No. 2 on this list if leading scorer DeShaun Thomas had opted to return for his senior season. One of the top pure scorers in America, Thomas averaged 19.8 points for the Buckeyes' Elite Eight squad and finished with 1,630 points in three seasons. Still, Ohio State should be one of the top teams in America in 2013-14, as each of the other four starters return. It will be tough for point guard Aaron Craft to play much better on the defensive end than he did this season, but he can certainly become a more efficient shooter. Lenzelle Smith Jr., Sam Thompson and Shannon Scott all averaged more than 20 minutes per game. Forward LaQuinton Ross is a tough matchup who contributed 15 points per game during the NCAA tournament. It will be a stunner if Ohio State doesn't challenge Michigan State for the Big Ten title.
9. Michigan Wolverines: Losing point guard and Wooden Award winner Trey Burke makes the Wolverines look a little less imposing entering the 2013-14 season, and the departure of shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. will definitely hurt. But this will still be an incredibly dangerous team more than capable of getting back to the Final Four, thanks to the return of forwards Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary. Both players would've likely been first-round picks in this summer's NBA draft had they chosen to leave school early. Rising sophomore Nik Stauskas, a returning starter, is among the country's top outside shooters. Forwards Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford and guards Caris LeVert and Spike Albrecht all earned valuable minutes during the Wolverines' run to the NCAA title game and will only improve. Michigan is adding two freshmen -- small forward Zak Irvin and point guard Derrick Walton -- who should step in and contribute immediately.
20. Indiana Hoosiers: This Hoosiers team won't be anywhere near as good as the unit that won last season's Big Ten title while spending a large chunk of the season ranked No. 1 in The Associated Press poll. But that doesn't mean Indiana won't be salty in 2013-14. Point guard Yogi Ferrell (4.1 assists) is the lone returning starter after Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo entered the NBA draft, but forward Will Sheehey earned valuable minutes off the bench, and coach Tom Crean couldn't be more excited about the progress of freshman forward Hanner Mosquera-Perea. The X-factor will be how quickly Indiana's highly touted, six-man signing class adapts to the college game. Headlining the group is Noah Vonleh, who is rated third among power forwards in the country by ESPN.com.
25. Iowa Hawkeyes: The Hawkeyes missed the NCAA tournament last season, but they should feel good about going 9-9 in the rugged Big Ten and finishing second in the NIT. Both were major accomplishments for a rapidly improving program. Don't be surprised if 2013-14 is the season when Iowa really turns the corner. Every key player will return from a team that went 25-13 overall last season. Included in that mix are leading scorers Roy Devyn Marble (15 points) and Aaron White (12.8), who also averaged a team-high 6.2 rebounds. With teams such as Indiana, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and likely Michigan losing a lot, the well-coached Hawkeyes have a chance to finish as high as third in the Big Ten while earning an NCAA tournament bid for the first time since 2006.
Fifteen others on the cusp: ...Wisconsin.
I love the fact you made this mistake. This is the Bball poll. They are also top-10 in the Fball poll. I LOVE THIS. Top 10 in both sports. This is real. This is a thing.
Hang in there. Honest mistake.
B is the new F
Lucky number 9... That's a thing, right?
to win the national championship.
(That is if you include next year's data.)
I can live with another Top 10 and potential Final Four run.
I got burnt this past season in predicting Iowa to the Tournament at the start of the year/December. So, yeah, doubt me and I can't say much. But I think the Iowa Hawkeyes are better than the 25th best next year. They return everyone but Eric May, a replaceable player, to say the least. They can challenge for the Conference's top spot next season.
KenPom had them #23 after all was said and done. http://kenpom.com/
Their AD/ OOC Scheduling? Not so much.
i have a few iowa friends and i told them at the beginning of the year that they would just miss the big dance; similar to northwestern the past few years.
that said, i thought minny would be a sleeper and picked them to finish 3rd in the BIG. so i'm not always right. thanks tubby.
Maybe I don't realize how much of a loss Burke will be, but with the improvement of McGary at the end of the season plus the development of Levert, Stauskas, and Robinson I feel like #9 is kind of low if MSU is #3 and OSU is #6.
I agree. I'm also very confident in this staff's ability to develop point guards.
I agree the staff has shown an aptitude for developing PG's but walton won't waltz in and dazzle right away. It will take time for him to transition to the college game and I agree that by the end of the season we should be playing a level much higher than 9 I feel that's a reasonable place to start considering we just lost the player of the year.
Walton doesn't have to come in and be the man. McGary, GRIII and Stauskas can be the go-to guys next year. Walton just has to get them the ball.
But he still has to adjust to the game, it's a different speed and level of physicality than HS
April 29th, 2013 at 10:52 PM ^
Remember when a lot of people here thought that Trey Burke couldn't replace Darius Morris?
April 30th, 2013 at 10:35 AM ^
I'm not saying Walton can't replace Burke, I've seen him play and played against him too. The kid is good, but is the Burke of last year NO. and that can't be expected, but I do believe, given time, he will be the next very good point guard at uofm. The kids a gamer, and we should expect good things from him, just give him time. It took Burke a whole year to really figure it out and then but it together his soph. year
I'll be surprised if we are ranked 9th in the real polls and even if we are, I think our team has the most talent in the big ten.
I also don't think IU is deserving of the top 25, they lost so much in Zeller, Oliadpo, Hulls and Watford that I don't think you can just 'reload' and go back at it. I don't think Yogi can carry that team to much of anhything beyond maybe .500 in the B1G TEN. Vonleh is considered a top 10 talent but most of the other recruits aren't highly touted. Also their other frosh didn't show much last year, and unlike Beilein I really doubt Crean's ability to identify undervalued talent, so I don't know where this talent that puts them as a top 25 team is coming from
Never stop blossoming.... I’m assuming Bacari thinks that’s a thing.
Iowa is going to be really good this year. I'm going to say Top 5 good, behind Michigan, OSU, MSU, and Wisconsin.
Also look out for PSU (really, look out for Penn State University).
If Frazier comes back at 100% healthy and plays like he did 2 years ago; look out.
Frazier, Newbill, and Marshall are going to be a dynamic trio with a lot of scoring potential. My bold prediction is that Penn State makes the NCAA Tournament.
I could be wrong, but I think we were near this same spot in the rankings which appeared about this time last year, so it is nice to see that they seem to believe that we are holding steady, if nothing else. Even with the loss of Burke and Hardaway, the retained and incoming talent should definitely aid in making this upcoming season another nice one, from the looks of it. One thing of note is that in McGary and Robinson, we are returning almost 40% of team rebounds from this past season and about 25% of the scoring between them, with Stauskas providing another 15% or so percent of that - improvement on these already significant contributions sounds pretty good to me.
If McGary plays all season as well or better than he played in the tournament, that makes us a top ten team by itself. If GRIII's game takes the big leap it's capable of doing, well....
I think having us slotted at #9 is a fairly conservative estimate. And, much as I hate to say it, I don't think this team is particularly worse of without Hardaway, if we're assuming that McGary, GRIII and Stauskas improve from last year and Irvin shows up half as good as we think he is.
ohio at six is a bit of a head-scratcher for me. That's about where they ended up this year, and I don't see the argument for next year's team being as good. They had one good offensive performer and he's gone. I'd like to see some scoring out of someone else before I elevate them that high. That's not hater talk I don't think, since I can understand the case for sparty being rated high.
April 29th, 2013 at 10:40 PM ^
...and they had as many yong guys as we did. And they keep their senior All-American PG, we lost ours.
It's not a big deal when you look at who we replace Burke and THJ with, but when you're talking about a preseason poll it makes sense to me.
"Rising sophomore Nik Stauskas, a returning starter, is a ... shooter"
I said 2 weeks ago we should be between #9 and #12...and we'll move up from there.
You can't lose the national player of the year who's usage and impact was way more than anyone on Kentucky (if you take the Anthony Davis out) or any other recent team outside maybe Kemba Walker...AND lose THJ who's been your #2 for a couple years and expect to be top 5.
We'll be fine, I will actually enjoy watching next years team more because the expectations won't be as high. As much as I loved it this year, it was fucking NERVE-RACKING! After seeing Michigan play in person 3-4 times before the @IU game, and also seeing Duke a couple times (who was #1) as well as a few other top teams...it became Final Four or bust for me. We just had SUCH a great team. That stretch during the end of the regular season was a gut punch like no other. IU was the only team I thought when they're "on" they might be better than us. Obviously L'ville got hot late and joined the dicussion.
That said, this year, I think we'll be able to BEAT top teams, but I don't put us there as of yet. So playing top teams will be more about playing well and seeing where the chips fall. It'll be a measuring stick to prepare for the NCAA Tournament.
Hopefully with a young team, we'll get better as the season goes along. However, in basketball it doesn't really work like that. Your freshman hit a wall in the middle of the B1G season (unless they're Mitch McGary). So it's harder to rely on them...and let's be honest, McGary didn't play THAT much going into the NCAA Tournament. Walton is going to be using starters minutes...Irvin is the wildcard. I think Irvin comes on late like Gary Harris.
Anyway...#9 is perfect. No bitching from me. I just can't wait to see this team next year. They've got some serious flexibility and it should be fun watching it all fall in place. I just wonder where the leadership at the guard position is going to come from. We don't have even a Vogrich to coach and get everything settled this off-season and early in the year.