Support MGoBlog: buy stuff at Amazon
Well it's Tuesday, so that means ESPN came out with a new bracketology.
Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, and Michigan get the 1 seeds. It has Michigan playing the winner of Norfolk State and Southern U and then playing the winner of Baylor/Pitt.
Louirville is the #2, Butler #3, and Creighton #4. I'd love to have that 3 and 4 in my side of the bracket.
Big Ten
Indiana, 2 seed
Minnesota, 3 seed
Ohio, 4 seed
Michigan St, 4 seed
Wisconsin, 7 seed
Illinois, 11 seed
I've got Michigan winning it all.
I'm starting to actually believe it. We haven't been a one seed since '93 I believe. But, every night, it's looking better and better.
Happy MgoBirthday!
Haha...Thank you! Been reading for a while--thought it was time to try to start getting involved.
regular season champions, B1G Tourney champs, #1 seed, National Title....and then everyone comes back next year and they do it again, all of it.
I would rather avoid Butler and Creighton completely until the Final Four. Those two teams make U of Ohio look like Bradley (yes, I know we're much better than last year, but Creighton is legit and Butler is good too).
Butler and Creighton are both very overrated, both teams would be .500 in the B1G. This would be a dream bracket and an automatic elite 8.
It doesnt matter if they would be .500 in the B1G over the course of the season, in the tourny all you have to do is win your next game and recent history suggests that these mid majors can make serious noise in the post season.
But I'm not sure Butler would be. They have a heck if a team this year.
I don't want to have to go up against any team coached by Brad Stevens.
About Creighton. I live in Omaha and watch Creighton often. They've always had problems with long and athletic teams. Boise was too athletic for them earlier this year, and it's the same reason they have been on the losing end against Wichita St the last few years. Michigan would be far too athletic for them, and I'm confident we would beat them rather handily. McDermott is a good ball player, but he always struggles against athletic teams as well. He would be a first or second team player in the Big Ten, but it would be a shame if he wins NPOY because he's at Creighton.
we beat in the regular season (revenge/over-confidence factor) for as long as possible.
Robby you must be swamped at work today!
Is it that obvious?
The worst part is that I've already read all of the Michigan related articles on ESPN, thewolverine.com, and wolverinenation. WHAT AM I GOING TO DO!?!?!?!?
You just described my day in it's entirety. Need Moar Michigan Reads
I used to read Michigantremendous, but that's no more :(
I suppose I could read touchthebanner, but I can't scroll down too far, because then you'll have girls in barely nothing. For some reason, looking at pictures like that is frowned upon at my work. Thanks Bin Laden!
I've started reading this guys blog www.themblock.com. Seems to have pretty good content. Agree about Tremendous.
Well I'll have to check it out. Thanks!
I was looking at that last night. I think it's equally important to not let down over the next 3 "should win" games. Then we could afford a 2-2 stretch
Here we come!!!
I would never want to face Butler in the tournament. I feel like the lower the seed they are, the more dangerous they are.
Lousville would be an epic regional final. In the West, that would be a very fortunate draw for Staee. I think Syracuse is overrated (really a one person show) and I think I actually might have Sparty coming out of that region believe it or not.
I don't believe it. Cuse would have to much star power for sporty to handle.
How many more embarrassing losses until they drop Illinois?
They'll drop when we beat them by 50 on Sunday.
Kansas St knocking off Kansas tonight will give us a little seed insurance.
How big of a k state fan I have become over the last two months. That relatively lopsided win keeps looking better
Don't they try to avoid potential rematches until the Sweet 16, meaning Pitt being on the line below Michigan is not feasible? Or is it just conference opponents where this applies?
Yes, I realize it's just a rough prognostication.
that is only for conference foes and the elite eight is the soonest they can play.
BTW, I could easily see an all B1G Final Four of Mich, Ind, Minn, MSU, but in that bracket I will actually go with Mich, KU, Fla, MSU
Really hard to take these things serious, when they give MSU the Auto Bid for the Big Ten and have them at a 4 seed. I know, I seen the part about current confrence leader and they are up a half game. But, if your going to put out some way to early brackets at least make some way to early predictions.
And if he predicted Indiana would win the Big Ten and had them a #1 over Michigan you'd complain about that too. Bracketology isn't about predictions.
Sorry to be the grammar police, but "I seen" is one of my pet peeves, along with putting an apostrophe in a plural word...before the "s."
As for the topic, the B1G teams seem fairly seeded, based on their current records/results.
This plays out for a 1 seed. Doesn't mean much yet, but it's encouraging and fun to talk about. This team is good enough to make a long run, and obviously a 2 seed or better is likeu
DP
The top 4 seeds in the south is killer. Kansas, IU, NC state and Ohio. I dont want any part of that.
North Carolina, VCU, Cincinnati, UCLA, and Georgetown all in that region as well. BRUTAL!
Not sure you could ask for a better bracket. Maybe switch Louisville for Florida and it would be one of the "easier" roads. But once you get to the 1v2 matchup it's going to be tough no matter who you play.
When can I buy tickets for the regional final in Indy?
is a bit scary. Maybe they'll play themselves up to a higher seed.
It would be huge to be in Auburn Hill/Indy -- perhaps even bigger than getting the 1. There are also a lot of us alumni here in DC, so that could be a nice home-court if Indiana bumps us out of the Midwest 1 seed. Also it's January, I can't believe I just engaged in speculating about our bracket.
If i'm reading that correctly, he's predicting MSU to be the B1G autobid? I would not want to face Louisville or Butler before the Final Four.
You can pencil in Florida for a #1 seed too. There's not a team that's going to challenge them on their schedule the rest of the way. Florida will knock Duke or Michigan off the top line depending on who stumbles more in conference play. Unless Kansas loses at KState they also will likely not lose more than twice the rest of the way.
The SEC is so down, though, Florida's resume's not going to look very good. Right now, they have 3 RPI top 50 wins, with one in the top 25. They'll likely pick up another when Wisconsin moves up from #51, but they only play two more top 50 teams, and those are middling (Mizzou @ 26 and Ole Miss @ 33). They also have 4 games against SEC teams that are 200+ in the RPI.
Compare to Michigan, which also has 3 top 50 wins, but two of those are top 15 (with one on the road). More importantly, they have 7 games left against the top 50 (plus Wisconsin) and no games against teams ranked lower than 188.
If Florida sweeps the league, they'll probably get a one, but anything else, and they're likely a 2 seed, even though they'd only have 3 losses. Just not enough good wins.
Kansas has a far better case if they win the Big 12. Already have 6 top 50 wins (including a win @ OSU), with 8 top 50 games left (only one of them top 25 but still a far stronger schedule than Florida).
I wasn't 100% sold on Michigan going into the season with the amount of freshman that were going to be getting key minutes, but the more I have seen of them this season, I have changed my mind.
The NCAA Tournament always comes down to matchups, but you have to like the fact that you have two guys (Burke and Hardaway) that can create their own offense at anytime in a game along with a having some knock down shooters. I can't imagine anything less than an Elite 8 appearance for Michigan right now.
As for the Buckeyes, I wouldn't mind their seeding falling somewhere in the 3-5 range. They just struggle way to much on the offensive end of the floor (except for Thomas) to make a real deep run this year, but again, you never know come tourney time.
The algorithm at TeamRankings.com has the following teams as having a greater than 50% chance at being a Top 4 seed. I included their relative projected chances at a #1 seed as well, using the same model.
| Team | #1 Seed | Top 4 Seed |
| Florida | 64% | 99% |
| Duke | 56% | 98% |
| Kansas | 51% | 97% |
| Arizona | 49% | 97% |
| Syracuse | 44% | 97% |
| Louisville | 36% | 96% |
| Indiana | 40% | 94% |
| Michigan | 25% | 88% |
| Gonzaga | 7% | 88% |
| Miami (FL) | 7% | 66% |
| Minnesota | 5% | 64% |
| VCU | 1% | 54% |
| New Mexico | 4% | 53% |
I would agree with their assessment of Michigan's current chances of being a Top 4 with this much of the season (and by extension, the conference schedule) left. The 25% projection for a #1 seed has to be more about the number of games left than anything else (combined probabilities of independent events and all that), but it is fairly reasonable to assume, I would think, that continued Minnesota-like peformances cause this projection to inch upward. I really like where we sit when it comes to likely being a #1 seed right now.
