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The never too early ESPN Bracketology

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:42 PM
#1
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 9974
The never too early ESPN Bracketology

LINK

Well it's Tuesday, so that means ESPN came out with a new bracketology.  

Duke, Kansas, Syracuse, and Michigan get the 1 seeds.  It has Michigan playing the winner of Norfolk State and Southern U and then playing the winner of Baylor/Pitt.

Louirville is the #2, Butler #3, and Creighton #4.  I'd love to have that 3 and 4 in my side of the bracket.  

Big Ten

Indiana, 2 seed

Minnesota, 3 seed

Ohio, 4 seed

Michigan St, 4 seed

Wisconsin, 7 seed

Illinois, 11 seed

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:43 PM
#2
SAvoodoo
SAvoodoo's picture
Joined: 01/10/2010
MGoPoints: 3712
I've got Michigan winning it

I've got Michigan winning it all.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:49 PM
(Reply to #2) #3
Dylan
Dylan's picture
Joined: 01/22/2013
MGoPoints: 6187
I'm starting to actually

I'm starting to actually believe it.  We haven't been a one seed since '93 I believe.  But, every night, it's looking better and better.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:56 PM
(Reply to #3) #4
Allin4Blue
Allin4Blue's picture
Joined: 02/04/2012
MGoPoints: 1005
Happy MgoBirthday!

Happy MgoBirthday!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:01 PM
(Reply to #7) #5
Dylan
Dylan's picture
Joined: 01/22/2013
MGoPoints: 6187
Haha...Thank you!  Been

Haha...Thank you!  Been reading for a while--thought it was time to try to start getting involved.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:24 PM
(Reply to #2) #6
MaiZedOuT
MaiZedOuT's picture
Joined: 08/19/2010
MGoPoints: 1298
I have Michigan winning it all too..

regular season champions, B1G Tourney champs, #1 seed, National Title....and then everyone comes back next year and they do it again, all of it.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:18 PM
(Reply to #23) #7
Coastal Elite
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Joined: 07/05/2011
MGoPoints: 944
What about the NIT?

What about the NIT?

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:39 PM
(Reply to #31) #8
PitchAndCatch
PitchAndCatch's picture
Joined: 10/17/2009
MGoPoints: 1346
psh

already won it earlier this year in NYC!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:50 PM
#9
Wolverine In Iowa
Wolverine In Iowa's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 10342
I would rather avoid Butler

I would rather avoid Butler and Creighton completely until the Final Four.  Those two teams make U of Ohio look like Bradley (yes, I know we're much better than last year, but Creighton is legit and Butler is good too).

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:11 PM
(Reply to #4) #10
5starrecruit
Joined: 01/19/2013
MGoPoints: 79
Butler and Creighton are both

Butler and Creighton are both very overrated, both teams would be .500 in the B1G. This would be a dream bracket and an automatic elite 8.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:17 PM
(Reply to #15) #11
thisisme08
thisisme08's picture
Joined: 12/02/2008
MGoPoints: 2701
It doesnt matter if they

It doesnt matter if they would be .500 in the B1G over the course of the season, in the tourny all you have to do is win your next game and recent history suggests that these mid majors can make serious noise in the post season. 

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:20 PM
(Reply to #15) #12
drewro02
Joined: 06/20/2009
MGoPoints: 1443
Creighton yes

But I'm not sure Butler would be. They have a heck if a team this year.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:59 PM
(Reply to #15) #13
FrankMurphy
FrankMurphy's picture
Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 10000
I don't want to have to go up

I don't want to have to go up against any team coached by Brad Stevens. 

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:18 PM
(Reply to #4) #14
drewro02
Joined: 06/20/2009
MGoPoints: 1443
Disagree

About Creighton. I live in Omaha and watch Creighton often. They've always had problems with long and athletic teams. Boise was too athletic for them earlier this year, and it's the same reason they have been on the losing end against Wichita St the last few years. Michigan would be far too athletic for them, and I'm confident we would beat them rather handily. McDermott is a good ball player, but he always struggles against athletic teams as well. He would be a first or second team player in the Big Ten, but it would be a shame if he wins NPOY because he's at Creighton.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:45 PM
(Reply to #4) #15
champswest
champswest's picture
Joined: 10/04/2009
MGoPoints: 18412
I hope we avoid meeting anyone that

we beat in the regular season (revenge/over-confidence factor) for as long as possible.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:50 PM
#16
Allin4Blue
Allin4Blue's picture
Joined: 02/04/2012
MGoPoints: 1005
Robby you must be swamped at

Robby you must be swamped at work today!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 1:57 PM
(Reply to #5) #17
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 9974
Is it that obvious? The worst

Is it that obvious?

The worst part is that I've already read all of the Michigan related articles on ESPN, thewolverine.com, and wolverinenation.  WHAT AM I GOING TO DO!?!?!?!?

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:01 PM
(Reply to #8) #18
Allin4Blue
Allin4Blue's picture
Joined: 02/04/2012
MGoPoints: 1005
You just described my day in

You just described my day in it's entirety.  Need Moar Michigan Reads

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:05 PM
(Reply to #9) #19
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 9974
I used to read

I used to read Michigantremendous, but that's no more :(

I suppose I could read touchthebanner, but I can't scroll down too far, because then you'll have girls in barely nothing.  For some reason, looking at pictures like that is frowned upon at my work.  Thanks Bin Laden!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:06 PM
(Reply to #11) #20
Allin4Blue
Allin4Blue's picture
Joined: 02/04/2012
MGoPoints: 1005
I've started reading this

I've started reading this guys blog www.themblock.com.  Seems to have pretty good content.  Agree about Tremendous.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:17 PM
(Reply to #12) #21
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 9974
Well I'll have to check it

Well I'll have to check it out.  Thanks!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:43 PM
(Reply to #13) #22
ryanlove12
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 451
Equally important

I was looking at that last night. I think it's equally important to not let down over the next 3 "should win" games. Then we could afford a 2-2 stretch

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:10 PM
#23
lofton18
lofton18's picture
Joined: 12/06/2012
MGoPoints: 85
FINAL FOUR

Here we come!!!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:12 PM
#24
MichTits
Joined: 07/08/2009
MGoPoints: 246
Butler

I would never want to face Butler in the tournament.  I feel like the lower the seed they are, the more dangerous they are. 

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:16 PM
#25
ijohnb
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 51841
Michigan v.

Lousville would be an epic regional final.  In the West, that would be a very fortunate draw for Staee.  I think Syracuse is overrated (really a one person show) and I think I actually might have Sparty coming out of that region believe it or not.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:18 PM
(Reply to #17) #26
5starrecruit
Joined: 01/19/2013
MGoPoints: 79
I don't believe it. Cuse

I don't believe it. Cuse would have to much star power for sporty to handle.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:29 PM
#27
andrewG
andrewG's picture
Joined: 10/20/2010
MGoPoints: 3153
How many more embarrassing

How many more embarrassing losses until they drop Illinois?

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:38 PM
(Reply to #24) #28
robbyt003
robbyt003's picture
Joined: 10/25/2010
MGoPoints: 9974
They'll drop when we beat

They'll drop when we beat them by 50 on Sunday.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:38 PM
#29
WolvinLA2
WolvinLA2's picture
Joined: 11/13/2009
MGoPoints: 52761
Kansas St knocking off Kansas

Kansas St knocking off Kansas tonight will give us a little seed insurance.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:35 PM
(Reply to #26) #30
ryanlove12
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 451
Crazy

How big of a k state fan I have become over the last two months. That relatively lopsided win keeps looking better

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:41 PM
#31
Laser Wolf
Joined: 07/09/2008
MGoPoints: 17695
Don't they try to avoid

Don't they try to avoid potential rematches until the Sweet 16, meaning Pitt being on the line below Michigan is not feasible? Or is it just conference opponents where this applies?

Yes, I realize it's just a rough prognostication.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 7:09 PM
(Reply to #27) #32
San Diego Mick
San Diego Mick's picture
Joined: 05/11/2011
MGoPoints: 18323
I believe

that is only for conference foes and the elite eight is the soonest they can play.

BTW, I could easily see an all B1G Final Four of Mich, Ind, Minn, MSU, but in that bracket I will actually go with Mich, KU, Fla, MSU

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:46 PM
#33
TruBluMich
TruBluMich's picture
Joined: 08/03/2011
MGoPoints: 4496
Really hard to take these

Really hard to take these things serious, when they give MSU the Auto Bid for the Big Ten and have them at a 4 seed.  I know, I seen the part about current confrence leader and they are up a half game.  But, if your going to put out some way to early brackets at least make some way to early predictions.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 2:58 PM
(Reply to #29) #34
Dawggoblue
Joined: 09/26/2011
MGoPoints: 2093
And if he predicted Indiana

And if he predicted Indiana would win the Big Ten and had them a #1 over Michigan you'd complain about that too. Bracketology isn't about predictions.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:12 PM
(Reply to #29) #35
1989 UM GRAD
1989 UM GRAD's picture
Joined: 03/08/2012
MGoPoints: 1512061
"I seen"

Sorry to be the grammar police, but "I seen" is one of my pet peeves, along with putting an apostrophe in a plural word...before the "s."

As for the topic, the B1G teams seem fairly seeded, based on their current records/results.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:34 PM
#36
ryanlove12
Joined: 01/12/2013
MGoPoints: 451
Hopefully

This plays out for a 1 seed. Doesn't mean much yet, but it's encouraging and fun to talk about. This team is good enough to make a long run, and obviously a 2 seed or better is likeu

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:44 PM
#37
FrankMurphy
FrankMurphy's picture
Joined: 08/19/2008
MGoPoints: 10000
DP

DP

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:44 PM
#38
TrppWlbrnID
TrppWlbrnID's picture
Joined: 10/29/2009
MGoPoints: 9842
too early

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:44 PM
#39
2012 Canadian
2012 Canadian's picture
Joined: 11/14/2012
MGoPoints: 14
Check out the projected south region

The top 4 seeds in the south is killer. Kansas, IU, NC state and Ohio. I dont want any part of that.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:28 PM
(Reply to #37) #40
CLTBuckeye
Joined: 10/19/2012
MGoPoints: 6
not to mention...

North Carolina, VCU, Cincinnati, UCLA, and Georgetown all in that region as well.  BRUTAL!

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:47 PM
#41
Mr. Yost
Mr. Yost's picture
Joined: 07/25/2011
MGoPoints: -9898289
I'll take it...

Not sure you could ask for a better bracket. Maybe switch Louisville for Florida and it would be one of the "easier" roads. But once you get to the 1v2 matchup it's going to be tough no matter who you play.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 3:51 PM
#42
Westside Wolverine
Westside Wolverine's picture
Joined: 12/24/2011
MGoPoints: 458
When can I buy tickets

When can I buy tickets for the regional final in Indy?

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:00 PM
#43
UM Indy
UM Indy's picture
Joined: 03/05/2009
MGoPoints: 4968
Baylor

is a bit scary.  Maybe they'll play themselves up to a higher seed.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:01 PM
#44
cheesheadwolverine
Joined: 10/25/2008
MGoPoints: 4386
It would be huge to be in

It would be huge to be in Auburn Hill/Indy -- perhaps even bigger than getting the 1.  There are also a lot of us alumni here in DC, so that could be a nice home-court if Indiana bumps us out of the Midwest 1 seed.  Also it's January, I can't believe I just engaged in speculating about our bracket.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:09 PM
#45
mistersuits
Joined: 01/27/2010
MGoPoints: 2416
If i'm reading that

If i'm reading that correctly, he's predicting MSU to be the B1G autobid? I would not want to face Louisville or Butler before the Final Four.

You can pencil in Florida for a #1 seed too. There's not a team that's going to challenge them on their schedule the rest of the way. Florida will knock Duke or Michigan off the top line depending on who stumbles more in conference play. Unless Kansas loses at KState they also will likely not lose more than twice the rest of the way.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:43 PM
(Reply to #43) #46
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
Florida

The SEC is so down, though, Florida's resume's not going to look very good. Right now, they have 3 RPI top 50 wins, with one in the top 25. They'll likely pick up another when Wisconsin moves up from #51, but they only play two more top 50 teams, and those are middling (Mizzou @ 26 and Ole Miss @ 33). They also have 4 games against SEC teams that are 200+ in the RPI.

Compare to Michigan, which also has 3 top 50 wins, but two of those are top 15 (with one on the road). More importantly, they have 7 games left against the top 50 (plus Wisconsin) and no games against teams ranked lower than 188.

If Florida sweeps the league, they'll probably get a one, but anything else, and they're likely a 2 seed, even though they'd only have 3 losses. Just not enough good wins.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:47 PM
(Reply to #48) #47
Needs
Joined: 08/05/2008
MGoPoints: 7194
Kansas

Kansas has a far better case if they win the Big 12. Already have 6 top 50 wins (including a win @ OSU), with 8 top 50 games left (only one of them top 25 but still a far stronger schedule than Florida).

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:21 PM
#48
CLTBuckeye
Joined: 10/19/2012
MGoPoints: 6
Michigan has a good shot

I wasn't 100% sold on Michigan going into the season with the amount of freshman that were going to be getting key minutes, but the more I have seen of them this season, I have changed my mind.

The NCAA Tournament always comes down to matchups, but you have to like the fact that you have two guys (Burke and Hardaway) that can create their own offense at anytime in a game along with a having some knock down shooters.  I can't imagine anything less than an Elite 8 appearance for Michigan right now.

As for the Buckeyes, I wouldn't mind their seeding falling somewhere in the 3-5 range.  They just struggle way to much on the offensive end of the floor (except for Thomas) to make a real deep run this year, but again, you never know come tourney time.

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January 22nd, 2013 at 4:58 PM
#49
LSAClassOf2000
LSAClassOf2000's picture
Joined: 01/07/2011
MGoPoints: 81317
Some Other Data...

The algorithm at TeamRankings.com has the following teams as having a greater than 50% chance at being a Top 4 seed. I included their relative projected chances at a #1 seed as well, using the same model.

 


Team #1 Seed Top 4 Seed
Florida 64% 99%
Duke 56% 98%
Kansas 51% 97%
Arizona 49% 97%
Syracuse 44% 97%
Louisville 36% 96%
Indiana 40% 94%
Michigan 25% 88%
Gonzaga 7% 88%
Miami (FL) 7% 66%
Minnesota 5% 64%
VCU 1% 54%
New Mexico 4% 53%

I would agree with their assessment of Michigan's current chances of being a Top 4 with this much of the season (and by extension, the conference schedule) left. The 25% projection for a #1 seed has to be more about the number of games left than anything else (combined probabilities of independent events and all that), but it is fairly reasonable to assume, I would think, that continued Minnesota-like peformances cause this projection to inch upward. I really like where we sit when it comes to likely being a #1 seed right now.

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