The never too early 2013 College Football Top 25
until we prove it on the field against a team with a pulse on the road......we're right where we should be if not lower
Well, couldn't you say the same thing about Ohio? Hell, really any team in the B1G? I guess they had a close win over a decent UW team on the road. And doesn't it matter that the most 'decent' teams we played on the road were all in the top-10 and three in top-5 at the end of the season? I mean, I know what you're saying, but I really do believe this team is a much better team than than #23 next year. A lot of that is based on our decent efficency stats and the underperformace against predicted success with those same stats, and some of it is just the eyeball test.
If Denard doesn't go down against Neb when we're outgaining them, do you think we win that game? Maybe, and I'll go as far as to say probably. If Denard doesn't melt down against ND, do you think we win that game? Maybe, and I'll go as far as to say probably. If Borges doesn't go batshit crazy after leading at half against Ohio, do we win that game? Maybe. Just maybe that time. The point is that we didn't get run out of any stadium the entire year except Alabama.
Sometimes I feel the eye test is a little under-used. Sure 'finding a way to win' is a very important and admirable aspect of a team, and is totally neccsary to winning championships. But basing everything on 'just finding a way to win' over more than one or two games means you end up with a number 1 ranked team that has no place actually being number 1 and results in a terrible national title game. Long story short, I think we should be higher. Not that it matters much because I think we will be higher by end of the 2013 season.
You can't argue that OSU didn't beat any one and was overanked then argue that UM is underranked for losing to said OSU on the road as a top 5 team. If we were over-ranked then it's a bad loss. If it's a good loss, then we are a top team. It can't be both.
For next year I would rather start at 23 rather than too high, maybe our guys can come out with a chip on their shoulder and give them some motivation for the offseason (if they even need any)
ya not sure that games at Penn State (true freshman quarter back and impact of graduation) and at Michigan State constitute as tought games...
Well considering it took a last second FG to beat MSU at home this year, I'd say it will probably be a challenge.
MSU loses a lot on defense (including possibly its DC) and the centerpiece of its offense (Bell), though.
My Not So Bold Prediction - MSU is going to be turrible next year.
We lose 3 starters on defense.
Their best offensive lineman is gone off a poor offensive line, their workhorse RB and only back to get carries this year left early for the draft, their only consistent receiving threat left early for the draft, they benched their redshirt junior QB in the bowl game for a redshirt freshman who barely had more passing yards than said RB that left early, and they are bringing back the worst offensive coordinator in the B10. I would not be surprised if they get shut out in at least 4 games next year.
I don't think we will lose, but I don't think it will be easy. They are still going to have a stout defense and their offense was horrendous this year and we barely squeaked it out at home. Also we lose basically our entire oline and our only proven rushing threat. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 12-10 type of game.
GERG Davis says hello.
is a tough schedule, what was this year's schedule for them?
I think we end up higher than 23...
was the toughest schedule ever for Michigan in school history (based on opponents record) something like 100 - 66. We played 4 teams that won over 10 games ....
We're starting in the Perfect Spot... Albeit unsure if it's well deserved. The schedule is C+ compared to this year's A/A-... We could run the OOC with resistance on the ND game only.
Entering the Conference we should handle with the way our team is developing. I'm so excited to see next year's defense. Especially assuming Countess bounces back fine... Next year should be our 2012 ND year!
Handle well, with the way our team *
Not sure 2012 ND year is what we want to aspire towards.
Yeah, I'd rather be Stanford 2012: Win the conference, win the Rose Bowl. Nice.
Agreed. I would rather win the Rose Bowl than get thrust into a national championship game against a team that we have no business being on the same field as. And since we haven't won the Big Ten Championship in almost 10 years, let's focus on the attainable.
I thought when you capitalized "Perfect Spot" that it was referring to somewhere on a girl's...nevermind.
I think the schedule is much more than a C+; NW will be a tough game next year at their place, Sparty will make life difficult before losing, and Penn State away is a real challenge. Ohio, ND, and Nebraska are very good teams that will threaten Hoke's unblemished Big House record.
I think this year's schedule was an A, next season's is a B+.
And I do believe we should probably be ranked closer to #15, but we have to prove it.
For once, Michigan is seriously underrated. We lost to three of the top four teams in the country, and could have won two without stretching anyone's imagination.
9-10 wins is pretty likely, which translates to about 6-15 depending on the timing of losses. OSU and ND are going to be strong. Nebraska might be good. Everyone else on Michigan's schedule has serious problems. Michigan needs to replace a lot of lineman, but given the pedigree of the replacements and underperformance of non-Lewan lineman, I'm optimistic about at least a push in performance. Subtract Alabama, and we're already at 9 wins.
I don't get the Nebraska concerns. What changes are they going to incorporate over the offseason to keep their defense from hemorraging points? Myself, I am much more worried about a stumble on the road at Northwestern next season than the Huskers at home.
I understand, but Nebraska is still the third or fourth best team in the conference. Taylor Martinez will be a senior and they rounded into form really well until the Wisconsin game.
Northwestern has a really nice thing going, but they always are one or two bounces away from things going pretty wrong for them. They never have great depth.
Not surprising, in my opinion. Michigan didn't really beat anyone of note. They lost to 5 tough teams (or 4 plus Nebraska), but they didn't really beat anyone of note. "Good losses" don't really mean a whole lot if there are no good wins in the mix, either.
I think they'll finish higher than 23 next season, but Michigan has earned a reputation for mediocrity that's going to take a while to turn around.
Northwestern was a good win, or a win against a good team. N'W went 2-0 against the SEC, beating two SEC bowl teams. Of course, it's too early to say how good Michigan will be next year. Swinging another recruit or two, especially a tailback, could impact things.
That's kind of my point. Michigan's lone "good win" was beating a 10-3 NW team in OT at home. NW was good, but Michigan's season was decidedly not great.
Until we beat a quality opponent, I'd rather see us not ranked or at #23. We need to prove our worth.
only changes were adding TCU and USC which are easy bets. That's basically just the end of season top 25
I'm surprised with the Wisconsin ranking. They lost 5 games this year too or 6? And only made the Rose because of I eligible teams.
I also think ND will end up lower than that. But I understand the ranking based on this season.
I, too, was surprised by the ranking for Wisconsin. They didn't exactly light the world on fire this season and will have a new coaching staff next year. I admit that I have no idea what their schedule is like for 2013 -- knowing Wisconsin the non-conference schedule will be an absolute joke, though.
EDIT: Well, I actually went ahead and read the article at the link and now I see why they have Wisco so high: they do not play Michigan, Michigan State or Nebraska next season. So, they play N'Western, Iowa and Minnesota from the Legends along with playing in the craptastic Leaders division. So, yeah, I can see a "rebound" year in the cards for Wisconsin given the lousy schedule they will be facing; 10 wins seems pretty likely given that sh*tty schedule.
Speaking of Lewan, when is he planning to make his announcement? I assume he's gone, but am a little surprised he hasn't said so yet.
Maybe* he's carefully considering the pros and cons of not staying in Ann Arbor for one more season. Let's face it, this winter at Crisler is shaping up to be loads of fun, maybe he doesn't want to miss it.
* OK, not really maybe, because he's probably gone....
Seriously--what if he gets drafted by a team in some city with a revolting walkability index? You can't ride a twosie in Indianapolis.
Our schedule is relatively easy next year, top 15 finish for sure
This list seems more like a knee-jerk response to this year's bowl season than an honest attempt at evaluating teams' 2013 prospects. I bet if UM had pulled it out against South Carolina, we'd be around 15 on this list (and so would they).
1. Underrated as always, we should be over Wisconsin with their new coach, and losing Ball.
2. A&M should be rated over Stanford, actually quite a few teams should be rated over Stanford, but A&M has Johnny Football. plus wtf did Texas do to get rated #11? They should be in the low 20s.
3.Our schedule will be easy next year, at least significantly easier than if was this year. No Bama, 2 bye weeks, and our toughest opponents at home? Do want.
Everyone is bearish on A&M because a good chunk of their OL graduates and I don't think they're sitting on Alabama level depth in College Station. Johnny Football may find it tough sledding next season with more dudes in his face.
Preseason polls are worthless. Just ask USC fans. This one is particularly worthless considering the timing. Alot can happen between now and September.
Thanks, ESPN, for sentences like these:
After playing in three consecutive BCS bowl games and winning the Rose Bowl Game presented by Vizio this season, ...
The Fighting Irish were probably a year ahead of schedule in reaching Monday night's Discover BCS National Championship.
I hate ESPN so much.
It's time for some competition. I feel dirty watching ESPN at this point, but there is nothing else. ESPN has essentially resigned itself to being a sports tabloid.
Back in the day, I really enjoyed the CNNSI channel before that got canned. NBCsports Network is putting some quality stuff out there, and will only get better now that hockey will be starting back up.
I was excited when that channel was launched. They just need to get in there and get some other contracts. Not that I'm complaining that they show hockey, even though I feel like they don't show enough games.
I think fsn is the only station with the infrastructure to compete. It's be cool to see the big ten and BTN, and the pac10 partner with them and shun espn.
and with the amount of time they spent showing the Gatorade bath for Saban, I wouldn't be surprised if they had a contract with Gatorade. Seriously, who cares about the Gatorade bath anymore?
As early as this poll is, if we played the 2013 season right now and just used the available predictor numbers, there would be six games where were are favored by ten or more points (Central Michigan, Akron, UConn, Minnesota, Indiana and Iowa) and two more where we would be favored by less than ten (Nebraska, Ohio State). In addition, there are three games that (Penn State, MSU, Northwestern), based on way-to-early predictors, would essentially be "pick 'em" games where were are favored (or not) by less than a point. The only game where we would be a decided underdog would be ND given the ratings right now. Granted, it's not exactly kosher to apply present data to future events like this, but it is what we have.
In other words, available data would predict eight "lean wins" right now, three toss-ups and one "lean loss" essentially. We don't really have much to go on, and it is hard to take a preseason poll put out less than a day after the previous season's finale all that seriously, but based on ratings that exist now, we would probably be underrated at #23 with the 2013 schedule (and applying the 2012 data of those teams), as some have mentioned.
starting in that position in the poll is fine by me.
Another thing to consider is that Michigan appears less vulnerable to offseason attrition this year than any other year in recent memory. We have much more depth than we're used to having, our coaching staff is stable, we only have one player likely to declare for the draft, and we don't seem to have as many key guys with legal issues, academic problems, transition issues, etc. Obviosuly you can never really predict what will happen when you're dealing with a pool of 85+ college kids, but this off-season I think the odds are good that other teams will be weakened by attrition a lot more than we will.
which seems likely considering that he is projected to get drafted at top 10. Michigan will lose their entire starting OL. Fitzgerald Toussaint is an unknown factor because of his gruesome injury and the RB is a huge question mark considering that they have a lot of trouble running this season. Luckily, they have Devin returning with starting experience.
On defense, they return players with experience, but no true pass rusher. Frank Clark have the potential, but haven't showed it yet. Losing Kovac hurts from the leadership standpoint, but they are replacing him with a better athlete at S. The CBs aren't terrible, but they're not great either. One must step up and become a true #1 CB, but we won't know until next season so secondary is still a concern. I expect the defense to be solid which won't be a concern with Mattison at DC.
Michigan have not beat anybody great and their best win is NW in which they were lucky to win thanks to Roundtree's miracle catch. However, they lost to every team who are good(not sure Nebraska would qualify as good). They have a pretty tough schedule with NW on the road, ND coming home(but Golson should improve and return key starters from a tough defense), PSU on the road, MSU on the road because of their defense, and OSU at home.
Both are potential 1st rounders. Nix was dominant last night and had his way against Barrett Jones. He even pushed Warmack 4 yards backward. So they would have quality front 3.
Throw in Golson who has improved leaps and bound and will be a quality QB next year. ND is still a good team but not nearly as good as last year
this is right about where we should be. i think next year we'll lose a game or two that we shouldn't, but will enter the 2014 offseason with a ton of momentum. knock off a solid sec opponent in a bowl game, and the defense and o-line start to gel by the end of the year. if gardner gets his rs and comes back, we enter 2014 as a legit top-10 team.
But ending the season at 23 will be utter despair - likely including losses to ND, OSU, others and probably ceding more recruiting mojo to Urbie and Kelly.
Schedule is much better, players are fully engrained in Hoke-ball and "2.5" recruiting classes on campus.
UM goes 10-2 and #14 before the bowl.
ND not only loses Manti Te'o, but also Tyler Eifert is leaving. Eifert didn't amass great stats against Michgan, but he did catchone crucial pass each of the last two years, and he did win the John Mackey Award for 2012. A victory over ND, which should enter the game as a top five team, would go a long way toward helping the Wolverines have a better season.
Sorry, Bennet is an idiot if he thinks Michigan is #5 team in Big Ten. Just from the easier schedule alone, we will win 2 more games next year. The defense will better than last year and you can argue that offense will as well as long as Devin stays healthy the entire year. Anybody who thinks Michigan will have worse record next year than this year has no clue how college football works.
Earlier posters have IMO correctly ID'd the 2013 tossup games as PSU,MSU, NE, and NU. Could the presence of Derrick Green in the backfield make a difference in any of these games? I would guess MSU, NE, NU because they're later in the season, when hopefully the new (post-Lewan, probably) OL has had some time to gel. Green could be a major factor in turning a couple of those games from TUs to Ws.