Never heard so much BS about a team that closed 8-7
This is truly extraordinary.
That is Sparty's record over their last 15 games. 8-7.
This just shows you how much group think and communal stupidity there is the world of college basketball "analysis."
Unless Keith Appling miraculously regains his shot in the next four days, this is a team that remains exactly as vulnerable as they were one week ago.
I used to trade for a living, and my go to move was to trade overreactions. I made a killing. This is a classic overreaction.
I mean no disrespect to our team, and I think we are also vulnerable, as Thursday night will be our 4th game in 8 days, but seriously, they just beat a jump shooting team playing its third game in three days. Just think on that.
If gambling were legal, I would drop multiple g's betting the field against Sparty because this is a gambling/trading opportunity. It's an overreaction.
Everyone is buying what Izzo's been selling, but I'm not. Let's watch Payne huff and puff in the first five minutes of a tournament game and see if that team doesn't get bounced. Let's watch a team sag off of Appling because he still can't shoot, and see if that doesn't cause a major problem for MSU - and Izzo is going to ride Appling because he's stubborn.
If a team can push Payne at all, he's going to break down.
This "analyst" nonsense should and will piss our team off. We won the conference. They won a four day carnival. And no, to answer some idiot in another thread, a 68 team tournament played out over multiple weeks is not the same as a four day game show.
Sparty is able - I don't deny that they have talent - but they are very vulnerable.
March 16th, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
It sucks losing to Sparty and their obnoxious base of "rub it in mouth breathers." But as my dad put it, Michigan had a chance to end the "injury narrative" today once and for all. They didn't. If we go on a good run then no one will care about today, especially if they flop. I'm looking forward to this year's run.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:05 PM ^
Banners go to the champions. What happens over the next month, as you noted, is what matters.
March 16th, 2014 at 10:57 PM ^
I'd love to see us go 3-1 against MSU this year.
March 16th, 2014 at 10:57 PM ^
They are currently 4.5-1 (listed 9-2) and you would have to be a really sucker to bet that. Their odds are the second highest and they are a four seed (14th on s-curve). No real value there. Hell, Zona is 6-1 and has more talent than MSU.
Btw, Michigan is 25-1. That makes them a 3-4 team tie for 10th overall, so there is decent value there.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:03 PM ^
It's a total gambling opportunity. Perhaps they were undervalued a week ago, but the overreaction has swung way out of control.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:33 PM ^
About a week ago MSU was 10-1 and Michigan was 20-1. That's why I think Michigan has some value and MSU has no value from a betting stand point. After the MSU circle jerk that just occured on ESPN there will probably be a flood of public money on MSU, which will likely chisel away even more value.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^
That's what I'd be sitting in the duck blind waiting on.
I'm having trouble imagining what you're talking about. From what I'm gathering you're saying MSU has about the best odds of winning the tournament, but you disagree and think they won't. That's a reasonable stance, but what does it do in terms of betting? I mean, when you place a bet as to who will win the tournament aren't you betting on the team you think will win, not the one you think won't? I just didn't think betting worked that way. Who is going to take a bet from a guy who says "I have no idea who is going to win this tournament, but I think MSU won't, so give me those 5-1 odds on the fact that they won't win".
I mean, you said you're a big sports gambler and trader so you probably know more than me about these things, but the odds of MSU NOT winning the tournament aren't the 5:1 (or whatever it was you were talking about earlier), it would be the inverse of that and therefore, there isn't money to be made betting against them winning the tournament (at least at this point).
In any individual game, sure you can bet against them and possibly make money depending on the odds, but can you really just place a bet (not with some MSU fan, but a legitimate bet) simply that MSU won't win the tournamnet before it even starts and have favorable odds....that seems pretty insane to me if it's the case.
Again, not being a betting man I could be wrong but this just seems bizarre.
March 16th, 2014 at 10:59 PM ^
They've been injured all year...until they started winning. Had they lost today, would simply have been that they didn't have time together enough to gel.
Oh, and Aaron Craft just wins, btw. When he doesn't it's the ball's fault for being slippery.
In fairness, MSU is built as well as any team, inside and out to win the tourney, but have lacked continuity all year, and this was not merely due to injuries. Plenty of athletes, but I don't see them running off 6 in a row.
Typical Izzo team. Bunch of physical, rebounding, bricklaying bullies without the shooting or skill to win without B1G refs letting you hack the other team into points off turnovers. Really don't see much difference between them and OSU to be fair, besides MSU having some more depth.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:03 PM ^
The B1G Tournament is pretty sweet. I'm not sure why everybody's dogging it. The rest thing won't be much of an issue. We have 4 days off now and then we play Wofford. I would have loved to win it. I'm not sure where the lose early people are coming from.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:16 PM ^
We're not well-suited to it, that is for sure.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:29 PM ^
It took the B1G 50+ to adopt it. Pretty much the last conference to do it.
Sorry, when I am older than the B1G Tournament, it doesn't mean that much.
Hell, Bob Knight was on record saying he hates the conference tournament and rests his starters in them.
Ever try to explain what the point of the thing is to someone who isn't a fan or isn't familiar?
March 16th, 2014 at 11:35 PM ^
Then I disagree with Bob Knight. It's more common for a national champion to win their conference title than to not win it. Kansas, Duke, Louisville, and Uconn have won both in recent years. I'm not sure if the issue with it is that people believe that it makes teams too tired for the first week of the tournament or that people actually hate the event itself which was pretty sweet for those who went. It was definitely one of the best sporting events I've been to.
exactly. my mother thought that the NCAA tournament had started already when told her i was watching Michigan play in the finals today.
i'm not saying the big tourney is useless. it's a chance for extra silverware, and can positively effect your seed in the big dance sometimes. it's just never going to be as prestigious as the Big-ten conference title. hence why Michigan while losing in the championship game is a 2 seed, and sparty while winning the championship game is a 4 seed.
You may be older than the Big ten tournament, but you are apparently not old enough to remember when we all bitched about how the lack of a conference tournament contributed to the relatively poor record of the Big Ten in the NCAA Tournament, that we were not tournament-toughened when the NCAA's rolled around. There was some merit to that argument.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:04 PM ^
I understand where ur coming from but couldnt u say the same thing about michigan last season?? go to sleep and prepare for the tourney let the games speak for themselves
March 16th, 2014 at 11:08 PM ^
But we didn't have every analyst proclaiming us the clear bet to win the title. There's a big difference.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:42 PM ^
March 17th, 2014 at 12:07 AM ^
Big difference though between one or two guys giving us a chance and every last ditto-head repeating this madness. Also, I have a bad temper.
March 17th, 2014 at 12:40 AM ^
March 17th, 2014 at 12:44 AM ^
Not a drop, but I do run on some combination of venom and blood.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:15 PM ^
of listening to Sparty Spin on WJR (was driving I-75 in Ohio and no access to TV).
It was a close toss up between wanting to hear the game and wanting to puke over all the gushing comments.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:20 PM ^
They were very good today and we were very bad - that much cannot be disputed.
But they got away with playing a very violent game - and the tourney is called very tightly - and our guys were completely starched from the first minutes. We went life and death in the first two games and they cake walked in. Which, credit to them, but it made a big difference. That, and they are more well-suited to a four day tournament, as they are deeper.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:20 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^
How the hell did Horford get two fouls before we even played one minute in the game? That's what I want to know.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^
It was bizarre. The game was reffed bizarrely. Ace said it, and anyone who can't see it, I don't know what to say.
They would go through a few minutes here and there where they called everything - both ways - and then the whole rest of the game was played as though it was last year.
I don't know how to explain what the hell was going on with those guys.
As I've said elsewhere, I think MSU would have beaten us about 99 times out of 100 after what we went through to get there and what they didn't go through to get there, but our 1 out of 100 chance was extinguished by the whistles.
They were calling anything with the hands very tightly, while anything with the body was allowed. So you had Morgan/Horford getting called on fingernail rubs while Dawson and Co. were playing middle linebacker with impunity..
March 16th, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^
These types of posts need to stop. This is a Michigan message board. We should be talking about things relating to Michigan athletics, not complaining about what the media says about a rival team's chances at winning. Yes, I know this thread is a result of one person trying to dismantle a team that beat their preferred team to feel better, but damn.
You have to understand where the media is coming from as well. MSU knocked off two teams that are both two seeds in the NCAA tournament in consecutive days. That alone is a good reason for the media to perk their ears up. They also beat the B1G Champions very convincingly after dropping the two regular season match ups (which weren't lopsided victories for Michigan). Plus (though I admit I hated this excuse as much as the next person), they finally do have their team back from all injury and related issues. There is some merit behind the media liking MSU's title chances.
I've come to realize that the Michigan/MSU rivalry is not about who is little brother or sister because it's really a rivalry with two teams playing and their fanbases reacting like infants when a result doesn't go their way. Meetings between the two schools is something I now loathe rather than enjoy because of it.
Respect the rivalry, accept defeat and look forward to the next game.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:27 PM ^
They still have serious issues. And three days doesn't change those issues. And stupidity annoys me. That is the motivation for the topic.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:28 PM ^
fuck them and everything about them.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:27 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:30 PM ^
Every team has its weakness. UM's is what Wisconsin (I know, we beat them in Madison but they were slumping mid season), MSU (with EVERYONE healthy), and somehow Indiana present. Big physical interior play. And uber athletes up front which right now MSU has in Dawson Payne .
MSU has weaknesses just the same - a team like Kentucky (don't laugh) will present them with problems since they too have athletes of the same ilk. There are a few teams out there that will present MSU with some serious problems - remember a "fully healthy" MSU got trucked by UNC at home - UNC is very young, like Kentucky, but has elite athletes. Wisconsin doesnt have those athletes either but they are big and long - Kaminsky destroyed MSU inside but none of their guards decided to show up for that game yesterday.
Right now UM basketball is not the home of elite athletes or "physical prowess" if you want to label it beter, esp up front ex Morgan. Robinsin is an "athlete" but not a physical one. Same for Nik and Caris - we are finesse aside from Mitch and Morgan. Horford is finesse. Other teams don't have that issue. F*** I feel like Im talking UM football right now.
That said its an experienced laden team - most 5 star big men are in the NBA after 2 yrs, so Payne will be playing guys 3-4 years younger than him in most games and that's an advantage, hard to spin it. Most guys of his class of his stars are in the NBA for 2 years already enjoying big paychecks. Dawson has a limited game offensively - the things he does well will be negated by a guy of similar ilk. We don't have that guy on our team. Some teams have that, we are trying to put a finesse player who should be a small forward up against him, it doesnt work great.
As with all things tournament a lot falls on how the dominos fall ahead of you. They still make a lot of dumb turnovers and have mental breakdowns but their athleticism across the board improved with Dawson coming back and guys like Bryd sitting on his ass. Just like if Mitch got back suddenly we'd be "less finesse, more physical" - it is what it is.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:36 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:42 PM ^
Dawson is a PF in the college game. Valentine is their SF. Dawson physically owned GR3 - yeah if GR3 muscled up, got a tougher outlook on life, had a chip on his shoulder, drove inside at will like Dawson did all game, was a rebounding beast, and 14 other things that would not be the outcome. That is not the current situation is it?
March 16th, 2014 at 11:52 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:27 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:30 PM ^
I thought I wanted to be a writer and the market doesn't move enough in either direction fast enough anymore for someone who likes trading options. The market has also lost a great deal of the human factor as huge program trading operations dominate everything. Trading against humans was a blast. Trading against computers, not so much. I saw what was coming and got out while the getting was still good.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:34 PM ^
but but but HFT increasedsliquidity!
...ok enough inside baseball jokes.
p.s. if you trade you know about recency bias; a MSU pick right now has recency bias. And people forget they were #2 to begin the year with an overinflated Kentucky team #1. So people are just going back full circle on the same rating they started the year with.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:37 PM ^
They have massive recency bias.
And damn, there was plenty of liquidity for what I was doing before HFT. Plenty. Argh.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:54 PM ^
March 16th, 2014 at 11:58 PM ^
Screw you guys, the original founders of the market were all about 4000 trades a second. ;)
If they put a tiny transaction tax on all orders withdrawn within 1/4000th of a second of placement the market would become a much more sane place.
LOL.
March 17th, 2014 at 12:09 AM ^
It's a bit of a bummer. And also, imo, dangerous to the economy. A massive cockup is far from an impossibility.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:48 PM ^
SNAP!
March 16th, 2014 at 11:28 PM ^
I'll gladly put money down. MSU loses to Virginia.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:46 PM ^
Said it earlier...I'll say it again.
I'll even take Cinci over Sparty.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:39 PM ^
To OP
We finished 5-5 last year entering the tourney.
The woe is me, they are talking about a rival talk in glowing terms and I am butt hurt is somewhat lame IMO.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:41 PM ^
We kind of covered that above. You didn't hear everyone proclaiming us a shoe-in for the title game after that stretch. And we were also about to release the McGary. Ain't nothing new coming down the pike for Sparty, unless Appling regains his jump shot. Now, if Appling did regain his jumpshot, I would alter my opinion of that team. But right now, he still can't shoot.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:44 PM ^
"people are saying good things about our rival who was ranked #2 coming into the year and just smacked us on national TV" is just not something to build a case about , whatever their record.
March 16th, 2014 at 11:47 PM ^
They didn't smack us. We beat them by about the same margin in Ann Arbor and that wasn't a smackdown. A smackdown was last year in Breslin.