Nebraska opens as a 2 point home favorite. Thoughts? Link below:
Nebraska opens as a 2 point home favorite. Thoughts? Link below:
We're going to win.
Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 at home this season so far, so I'm not surprised that they're a slight favorite (though the 2-point prediction indicates they think we're better but then awarded Nebraska with a +3 homefield advantage). That being said, this is a huge test for them who have faced Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Idaho State, and Wisconsin (the previously inept edition).
Their defense is less than impressive and with Burkhead out we should be able to roll. The night game atmosphere is about the only think the Huskers have going for them. We will be their second biggest test behind Ohio State, and we all saw how well they fared in that one.
These players seem to have a great focus each week. No let down against Purdue or Illinois even after each game became a sure victory. I see this game playing out a lot like last year's game at Illinois. You never really felt like Illinois would win because the defense kept shutting them down. Eventually, Michigan's offense will put up a bunch of points and put the game out of reach. Lincoln at night... I don't see that as being enough for Nebraska to beat Michigan this year.
If Michigan plays good football i expect to win..Our run D has been solid and i know Martinez has had a ok year passing but i was born in Missouri.
Michigan 27 - Nebraska 20
Is that a "'Show Me' State" reference?
That's fine. It's actually a sign of respect because homefield is supposed to be worth 3 points in these things.
This is a big, big game. Nebraska has eeked by Wisconsin (30-27) and Northwestern (29-28) to remain only one game behind us. If they beat us, we'll be tied but they'll have the tiebreaker. We've got to win this one.
It's "eked." "Eek" is an exclamation; if you turn it into a verb, it would simply mean that you made the "eek" noise. It's also an example of onomotopoeia. "Eke" is the verb you are trying to use. You're welcome.
Actually, the verb "eke" means "to make equal", and is most commonly used in modern English is in the phrase "eke out", which means "to make adequate by addition". That meaning obviously isn't what was meant, so we're left to assume that what the author meant was "squeak by", but chose an onomatopoeic variant. Consequently, "eek" may be questionable but is more appropriate than "eke". You're welcome.
you probably get this a lot...but, are you, uh...the Proclus?
sounds good to me.. give Nebraska a false sense of security/hope
Nebraska's defense is porous and Burkhead is injured. Only thing they have going for them is a night home game. However NW beat the tar out if them last year at home so we just need to execute and we will be fine.
I wouldn't go that far. Even if Burkhead doesn't play, they've still got an excellent running game with Martinez and Abdullah. They're going to be the best running team we've faced since Air Force, but with an actual passing game, too.
Same guys picked Geno Smith for Heisman, and an FSU National Championship. Seriously, it's like people don't even understand what good defenses are.
make the lines.
The way our D made them look silly last year, I don't expect a different result this year. Michigan by 20 or more.
I think Michigan will win, but expecting to win by 20 or more is not reasonable at night on the road. Also, just because we crushed them last year doesn't mean the same will happen this year. Nebraska played like shit against us.
One thing that is intriguing about this line is that, using the Sagarin ratings (if indeed I follow his formula correctly), Michigan would come out as the two point favorite.
In any event, Nebraska does have the best rushing offense in the conference, but if our run defense keeps playing like that, I think we slow them down enough to win. Nebraska actually also has the third best passing offense in the conference, but again here, we have the best passing defense. I think we can bring pressure to Martinez and prevent anything big through the air as well. We won't shut them out, I imagine - they do average 41 points per game, but we only give up an average of 16 points or so while scoring about 31 points per game on average.
I think a lot of their offensive statistical rankings are swayed heavily given who they've played so far, esp non-conference opponents.
Just looking at scoring offense, if you separate their OOC and Big Ten schedules, they averaged 49 points in their OOC schedule, and this dropped to 32 in their conference schedule, so the overall decrease in production is considerable. Their rushing offense took a considerable hit once conference play started as well - it was 318 yards per game average at the end of the OOC schedule, but the three conference games have seen them average 228 yards rushing.
I feel that Nebraska isn't as good as their record sugests, becuase they could have easily lost to Wisconsin and Northwestern. I feel that in their 4 read games so far (taking out games against Ark St, Idaho St, and So Miss) they have gotten down in all of them. Twice they came back, and twice they couldn't. IMO if Michigan can get ahead, I don't see a Nebraska comeback. If we can secure a lead, I feel our D clamping down and holding them to minimal scoring in the end. Michigan pounds the ball in the 4th quarter and seals the game with a 3rd and goal 1 yard flip to a wide open Funchess. Michigan 27 Nebraska 16.
I "feel" it is extremely unlikely that UM will hold Nebraska's offense to 16 points in...Lincoln...at night.
Nebraska's two biggest comebacks in school history have occured the past two years: 21 points against OSU in 2011 and 17 points against Wisconsin this season. Common thread in both of those games: night game in Lincoln.
Nebraska's offensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the crappy non-conference teams they played, but they are still averaging about 30 ppg against the BCS competition they have faced: UCLA, Wisconsin, OSU and Northwestern and three of those games were on the road.
I expect Nebraska to score at least in the mid 20's and probably reach the low 30's against UM. Hopefully, UM can take advantage of Nebraska's "meh" defense to outscore them in a relative shoot-out (well, at least a B1G version of a shoot-out).
They're gonna get yards, I'm sure. How do they stop us though? This is the same Nebraska team that let us dropped 45 pts on their heads (to say nothing of allowing 63(!) to Ohio). Yeah, their loss against us was aided and abetted by their special teams facederps, but this is also a team that has no Lavonte David or Dennard (whoever their good CB was)
Our offense will get to stretch it's legs after the State game. Against the Nebraska D we're gonna be all:
and Nebraska hasn't faced a real defense yet. Against Michigan they're gonna be all
I was born in Detroit...and I am still saying "show me" that Taylor Martinez can beat our defense. He has got better but not enough to pull this off. Jake Ryan is licking his chops...just don't miss Ryan!
I like our chances, but the overconfidence around here is a bit much. Some things to keep in mind:
1. We have now had two games this year without an offensive touchdown. Our offense has really only looked "great" against purdue and illinois (and umass).
2 Denard at night = extra worry. He seems to really struggle in night games. Think Sugar Bowl, both ND games (we won UTL but our offense played well for half of one quarter) and Bama.
3. Our D is solid. No doubt. Bit a guy like Martinez is kind of like Denard. A good d can stop him, but every so often he goes off, and when he does you are in trouble.
I would add that our lack of pass rush is troubling. Martinez is not a great QB, but his biggest problems show up when he is under pressure and just throws it up for grabs. If the games so far are any indication, we aren't going to get much pressure on Martinez. So the big question is: will he find open people (he has been doing a good job of it so far this year) or will he try to force the ball (which was his MO last year)?
I think Nebraska is going to have to throw on us a lot more than they would like, so I think Martinez turnovers make a huge difference in this game. If he has them, we win with some ease. If he has a clean slate, or only one INT, it is going to be a real close game.
Didn't we play NW at night last year? IIRC he had a pretty good game. I think his "night struggles" have more to do with the quality of our opponents, than the time of day.
As I recall, we fell behind 24-14 in the first half, in which Denard struggled. Totally agree that our night game opponents are all marquee teams (VT, ND, et al.).
I am generally paranoid about every game, because that's just me, but I am particularly concerned that Nebraska's defense may play better against Michigan because of experience coaching similar talent in Taylor Martinez and in running a similar scheme.
How did that "experience coaching similar talent in Taylor Martinez and in running a similar scheme" turned out last year?
UTL was poor play calling. The Sugar Bowl was Borges trying to be creative and against a very good defense. Bama is Ala-fucking-bama. ND is the one game that you can say that Denard had a legit issue. Correlation does not imply causation.
I'm actually glad it is a night game and no a early start, especially since it could be tough for this team to get going with a early start in an earlier time zone. At least Team 133 should bf used to late starts by now.
It would be good for Nebraska to play a night game at AA instead of a 12 pm game since that would be their early morning. For Michigan, a late night game actually hurts.
You guys do realize that Nebraska is only one time zone behind us, right? Noon for us is 11:00 a.m. for them. Not a big difference. It's not like they're on the West Coast.
college students stay up late...
We seem to play better that way.
As a guy who has bet on us a couple of times when we were the underdog this year, um no we don't. I'll show you my bank roll if you don't believe me...
I have to think the experience of already having played an away night game should help this team. With all the shenanigans ND pulled to give them an edge, I doubt the atmosphere in Lincoln will be any worse. I do think Nebraska's offense (at least Martinez's passing) is probably a bit better than they were last year, but I think their defense is a little worse. Should be a close game.
Small sample size, but Nebraska is 0-4 with spread vs. BCS opponents.
Given how terrible the Nebraska D has looked against running QBs this year and against Denard last year, you would not be able to give me enouh points to take Nebraska if this game was in Ann Arbor. However, sometime goofy things happen to this team away from home. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Standing as of today:
Michigan 3-0 (big) 5-2 (total)
Nebraska 2-1 5-2
Iowa 2-1 4-3
Northwestern 2-2 6-2
Michigan State 1-3 4-4
Minnesota 0-3 4-3
Games to be played:
Believe it or not, Iowa has relatively clearer pass (everything else being equal) to divisional lead. Michigan has to play OSU, and Nebraska has to play sparty at EL, and Penn State, which is doing just fine lately.
Of course, if Michigan defeat Nebraska and Iowa then I don't see it would lose to other foes except OSU, which is a toss up for me.
You neglected to include whether those games are away or home which often makes a big difference. Personally, I think Nebraska has the best chance at winning the division right now and I was really hoping that N'Western would win that game last night as that would have given UM the edge.
Iowa is...not good. They will lose at least two more conference games as they play at Northwestern, at Indiana and at UM along with a tough game against Nebraska. Personally, I think Iowa will lose three more games and finish just 4-4 in B1G play.
UM should lose no more than two games because they should have little trouble dispatching N'Western and Iowa in AA and Minny on the road. However, if they lose to Nebraska and finish with two conference losses they would need Braska to lose two more games because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Nebraska gets UM and PSU in Lincoln and I think that might be enough for them to win those tough games. I think they will lose at MSU (unless State decides to screw with UM's chances of winning the division and rolls over) but that is the only game I expect them to lose.
tl;dr: UM probably needs to win in Lincoln this weekend to win the division.
I'd say Nebby is a favorite over Sparty even in EL. Sparty was playing way over their heads against us. Yes, Burbridge will help their offense improve, but they're still going to be poor. And their defense will revert to underachieving now that their one team goal for the season has been a failure. They'll be playing for individual stats.
Which makes it that much more critical that we beat the Huskers.
Does it enhance a home field advantage, or partially negate it? Among BCS schools that I can anecdotally think of, I seem to recall a lot of home-field upsets at night, starting with last night in Iowa City. Ohio State has beaten Wisconsin in jumpin' (around) Camp Randall at night. I'm trying to think of other close-comparables.
I dunno; I couldn't find any stats. But a night game tends to take the home team out of its usual game-day routine, which is what the visitors are already dealing with. Anybody have any serious ideas on what night game scheduling does to home field advantage?
Well, we already know that it has been a huge advantage for Nebraska over the past two seasons as they have had their two biggest comeback wins in program history at night in Lincoln: 21 pt comeback against OSU in 2011 and 17 pt comeback against Wisco in 2012.
It appears that no lead is safe against Nebraska in a night game in Lincoln. I believe that is why Nebraska will beat UM. Had the game been scheduled for a day start, I would have given UM a slight edge.
Well that's some pretty big conclusions based on small sample sizes. The Ohio comeback was pretty impressive, but that was also after Miller went out and Bauserman promptly threw every pass into the stands. And the UW comeback was coming considering they were still completely dysfunctinal UW at that point and could barely get a score when Neb handed them the ball inside the 5. Not a whole lot you can conclude from that.
They also fell behind at home, at night, by big margins both those times (just another way of looking at it). A big comeback requires the leading team to "cooperate" and give some things away (and it takes some luck). If the night game at home was such a great thing for Nebraska, they wouldn't have needed big comebacks.
I would have expected Michigan to be 7 point favorites. We have to be the best d they have faced so far and I trust their ability to stop Taylor Martinez and co. Their d on the other hand doesn't compare to bama, nd, or state's. The offense should be able to play with the same run first pass second offense that they have been and limit mistakes.
Michigan 35 neb 17
Nebraska's defense has looked horrible all year, I don't doubt that. However, walking into Lincoln for a night game is not going to be easy.
Northwestern blowing that game to the Huskers really hurts right now. Because if we lose next Saturday, we're going to lose the tie breaker to them in our division. I don't see Nebraska losing to Iowa, Minnesota or MSU the rest of their way despite all their defensive woes.
That's how important a win in Lincoln is. If we lose, I don't think we're going to the conference championship game unless Sparty can somehow beat the Huskers in East Lansing.
If UM loses in Lincoln, they will likely need Nebraska to lose two more games (which I don't think is very likely) as I expect UM to lose a close game against OSU in Columbus. As you pointed out, N'Western choking away that game really hurt UM's chances of playing for the B1G championship. The game in Lincoln this weekend will probably determine who wins the Legends division.
This game is going to be the Divisional Championship.
Doesn't Neb have to play PSU this year as well? I can see them losing that game. But if we drop one to them and to Ohio, then we're in trouble. Regardless, this is a very important game and will probably decide the division.