Nebraska opens as a 2 point home favorite. Thoughts? Link below:
Nebraska opens as 2 point favorite
We're going to win.
Nebraska is a perfect 4-0 at home this season so far, so I'm not surprised that they're a slight favorite (though the 2-point prediction indicates they think we're better but then awarded Nebraska with a +3 homefield advantage). That being said, this is a huge test for them who have faced Southern Miss, Arkansas State, Idaho State, and Wisconsin (the previously inept edition).
Their defense is less than impressive and with Burkhead out we should be able to roll. The night game atmosphere is about the only think the Huskers have going for them. We will be their second biggest test behind Ohio State, and we all saw how well they fared in that one.
These players seem to have a great focus each week. No let down against Purdue or Illinois even after each game became a sure victory. I see this game playing out a lot like last year's game at Illinois. You never really felt like Illinois would win because the defense kept shutting them down. Eventually, Michigan's offense will put up a bunch of points and put the game out of reach. Lincoln at night... I don't see that as being enough for Nebraska to beat Michigan this year.
If Michigan plays good football i expect to win..Our run D has been solid and i know Martinez has had a ok year passing but i was born in Missouri.
Michigan 27 - Nebraska 20
Is that a "'Show Me' State" reference?
That's fine. It's actually a sign of respect because homefield is supposed to be worth 3 points in these things.
This is a big, big game. Nebraska has eeked by Wisconsin (30-27) and Northwestern (29-28) to remain only one game behind us. If they beat us, we'll be tied but they'll have the tiebreaker. We've got to win this one.
It's "eked." "Eek" is an exclamation; if you turn it into a verb, it would simply mean that you made the "eek" noise. It's also an example of onomotopoeia. "Eke" is the verb you are trying to use. You're welcome.
Actually, the verb "eke" means "to make equal", and is most commonly used in modern English is in the phrase "eke out", which means "to make adequate by addition". That meaning obviously isn't what was meant, so we're left to assume that what the author meant was "squeak by", but chose an onomatopoeic variant. Consequently, "eek" may be questionable but is more appropriate than "eke". You're welcome.
you probably get this a lot...but, are you, uh...the Proclus?
sounds good to me.. give Nebraska a false sense of security/hope
Nebraska's defense is porous and Burkhead is injured. Only thing they have going for them is a night home game. However NW beat the tar out if them last year at home so we just need to execute and we will be fine.
I wouldn't go that far. Even if Burkhead doesn't play, they've still got an excellent running game with Martinez and Abdullah. They're going to be the best running team we've faced since Air Force, but with an actual passing game, too.
Same guys picked Geno Smith for Heisman, and an FSU National Championship. Seriously, it's like people don't even understand what good defenses are.
make the lines.
The way our D made them look silly last year, I don't expect a different result this year. Michigan by 20 or more.
I think Michigan will win, but expecting to win by 20 or more is not reasonable at night on the road. Also, just because we crushed them last year doesn't mean the same will happen this year. Nebraska played like shit against us.
One thing that is intriguing about this line is that, using the Sagarin ratings (if indeed I follow his formula correctly), Michigan would come out as the two point favorite.
In any event, Nebraska does have the best rushing offense in the conference, but if our run defense keeps playing like that, I think we slow them down enough to win. Nebraska actually also has the third best passing offense in the conference, but again here, we have the best passing defense. I think we can bring pressure to Martinez and prevent anything big through the air as well. We won't shut them out, I imagine - they do average 41 points per game, but we only give up an average of 16 points or so while scoring about 31 points per game on average.
I think a lot of their offensive statistical rankings are swayed heavily given who they've played so far, esp non-conference opponents.
Just looking at scoring offense, if you separate their OOC and Big Ten schedules, they averaged 49 points in their OOC schedule, and this dropped to 32 in their conference schedule, so the overall decrease in production is considerable. Their rushing offense took a considerable hit once conference play started as well - it was 318 yards per game average at the end of the OOC schedule, but the three conference games have seen them average 228 yards rushing.
I feel that Nebraska isn't as good as their record sugests, becuase they could have easily lost to Wisconsin and Northwestern. I feel that in their 4 read games so far (taking out games against Ark St, Idaho St, and So Miss) they have gotten down in all of them. Twice they came back, and twice they couldn't. IMO if Michigan can get ahead, I don't see a Nebraska comeback. If we can secure a lead, I feel our D clamping down and holding them to minimal scoring in the end. Michigan pounds the ball in the 4th quarter and seals the game with a 3rd and goal 1 yard flip to a wide open Funchess. Michigan 27 Nebraska 16.
I "feel" it is extremely unlikely that UM will hold Nebraska's offense to 16 points in...Lincoln...at night.
Nebraska's two biggest comebacks in school history have occured the past two years: 21 points against OSU in 2011 and 17 points against Wisconsin this season. Common thread in both of those games: night game in Lincoln.
Nebraska's offensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the crappy non-conference teams they played, but they are still averaging about 30 ppg against the BCS competition they have faced: UCLA, Wisconsin, OSU and Northwestern and three of those games were on the road.
I expect Nebraska to score at least in the mid 20's and probably reach the low 30's against UM. Hopefully, UM can take advantage of Nebraska's "meh" defense to outscore them in a relative shoot-out (well, at least a B1G version of a shoot-out).
They're gonna get yards, I'm sure. How do they stop us though? This is the same Nebraska team that let us dropped 45 pts on their heads (to say nothing of allowing 63(!) to Ohio). Yeah, their loss against us was aided and abetted by their special teams facederps, but this is also a team that has no Lavonte David or Dennard (whoever their good CB was)
Our offense will get to stretch it's legs after the State game. Against the Nebraska D we're gonna be all:
and Nebraska hasn't faced a real defense yet. Against Michigan they're gonna be all
I was born in Detroit...and I am still saying "show me" that Taylor Martinez can beat our defense. He has got better but not enough to pull this off. Jake Ryan is licking his chops...just don't miss Ryan!
I like our chances, but the overconfidence around here is a bit much. Some things to keep in mind:
1. We have now had two games this year without an offensive touchdown. Our offense has really only looked "great" against purdue and illinois (and umass).
2 Denard at night = extra worry. He seems to really struggle in night games. Think Sugar Bowl, both ND games (we won UTL but our offense played well for half of one quarter) and Bama.
3. Our D is solid. No doubt. Bit a guy like Martinez is kind of like Denard. A good d can stop him, but every so often he goes off, and when he does you are in trouble.
I would add that our lack of pass rush is troubling. Martinez is not a great QB, but his biggest problems show up when he is under pressure and just throws it up for grabs. If the games so far are any indication, we aren't going to get much pressure on Martinez. So the big question is: will he find open people (he has been doing a good job of it so far this year) or will he try to force the ball (which was his MO last year)?
I think Nebraska is going to have to throw on us a lot more than they would like, so I think Martinez turnovers make a huge difference in this game. If he has them, we win with some ease. If he has a clean slate, or only one INT, it is going to be a real close game.
Didn't we play NW at night last year? IIRC he had a pretty good game. I think his "night struggles" have more to do with the quality of our opponents, than the time of day.
As I recall, we fell behind 24-14 in the first half, in which Denard struggled. Totally agree that our night game opponents are all marquee teams (VT, ND, et al.).
I am generally paranoid about every game, because that's just me, but I am particularly concerned that Nebraska's defense may play better against Michigan because of experience coaching similar talent in Taylor Martinez and in running a similar scheme.
How did that "experience coaching similar talent in Taylor Martinez and in running a similar scheme" turned out last year?
UTL was poor play calling. The Sugar Bowl was Borges trying to be creative and against a very good defense. Bama is Ala-fucking-bama. ND is the one game that you can say that Denard had a legit issue. Correlation does not imply causation.
I'm actually glad it is a night game and no a early start, especially since it could be tough for this team to get going with a early start in an earlier time zone. At least Team 133 should bf used to late starts by now.
It would be good for Nebraska to play a night game at AA instead of a 12 pm game since that would be their early morning. For Michigan, a late night game actually hurts.
You guys do realize that Nebraska is only one time zone behind us, right? Noon for us is 11:00 a.m. for them. Not a big difference. It's not like they're on the West Coast.
college students stay up late...
We seem to play better that way.
As a guy who has bet on us a couple of times when we were the underdog this year, um no we don't. I'll show you my bank roll if you don't believe me...
I have to think the experience of already having played an away night game should help this team. With all the shenanigans ND pulled to give them an edge, I doubt the atmosphere in Lincoln will be any worse. I do think Nebraska's offense (at least Martinez's passing) is probably a bit better than they were last year, but I think their defense is a little worse. Should be a close game.
Small sample size, but Nebraska is 0-4 with spread vs. BCS opponents.
Given how terrible the Nebraska D has looked against running QBs this year and against Denard last year, you would not be able to give me enouh points to take Nebraska if this game was in Ann Arbor. However, sometime goofy things happen to this team away from home. I'm cautiously optimistic.
Standing as of today:
Michigan 3-0 (big) 5-2 (total)
Nebraska 2-1 5-2
Iowa 2-1 4-3
Northwestern 2-2 6-2
Michigan State 1-3 4-4
Minnesota 0-3 4-3
Games to be played:
- Ohio st.
- Michigan State
- Penn State
Believe it or not, Iowa has relatively clearer pass (everything else being equal) to divisional lead. Michigan has to play OSU, and Nebraska has to play sparty at EL, and Penn State, which is doing just fine lately.
Of course, if Michigan defeat Nebraska and Iowa then I don't see it would lose to other foes except OSU, which is a toss up for me.
You neglected to include whether those games are away or home which often makes a big difference. Personally, I think Nebraska has the best chance at winning the division right now and I was really hoping that N'Western would win that game last night as that would have given UM the edge.
Iowa is...not good. They will lose at least two more conference games as they play at Northwestern, at Indiana and at UM along with a tough game against Nebraska. Personally, I think Iowa will lose three more games and finish just 4-4 in B1G play.
UM should lose no more than two games because they should have little trouble dispatching N'Western and Iowa in AA and Minny on the road. However, if they lose to Nebraska and finish with two conference losses they would need Braska to lose two more games because they would lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Nebraska gets UM and PSU in Lincoln and I think that might be enough for them to win those tough games. I think they will lose at MSU (unless State decides to screw with UM's chances of winning the division and rolls over) but that is the only game I expect them to lose.
tl;dr: UM probably needs to win in Lincoln this weekend to win the division.
I'd say Nebby is a favorite over Sparty even in EL. Sparty was playing way over their heads against us. Yes, Burbridge will help their offense improve, but they're still going to be poor. And their defense will revert to underachieving now that their one team goal for the season has been a failure. They'll be playing for individual stats.
Which makes it that much more critical that we beat the Huskers.
Does it enhance a home field advantage, or partially negate it? Among BCS schools that I can anecdotally think of, I seem to recall a lot of home-field upsets at night, starting with last night in Iowa City. Ohio State has beaten Wisconsin in jumpin' (around) Camp Randall at night. I'm trying to think of other close-comparables.
I dunno; I couldn't find any stats. But a night game tends to take the home team out of its usual game-day routine, which is what the visitors are already dealing with. Anybody have any serious ideas on what night game scheduling does to home field advantage?
Well, we already know that it has been a huge advantage for Nebraska over the past two seasons as they have had their two biggest comeback wins in program history at night in Lincoln: 21 pt comeback against OSU in 2011 and 17 pt comeback against Wisco in 2012.
It appears that no lead is safe against Nebraska in a night game in Lincoln. I believe that is why Nebraska will beat UM. Had the game been scheduled for a day start, I would have given UM a slight edge.
Well that's some pretty big conclusions based on small sample sizes. The Ohio comeback was pretty impressive, but that was also after Miller went out and Bauserman promptly threw every pass into the stands. And the UW comeback was coming considering they were still completely dysfunctinal UW at that point and could barely get a score when Neb handed them the ball inside the 5. Not a whole lot you can conclude from that.
They also fell behind at home, at night, by big margins both those times (just another way of looking at it). A big comeback requires the leading team to "cooperate" and give some things away (and it takes some luck). If the night game at home was such a great thing for Nebraska, they wouldn't have needed big comebacks.
I would have expected Michigan to be 7 point favorites. We have to be the best d they have faced so far and I trust their ability to stop Taylor Martinez and co. Their d on the other hand doesn't compare to bama, nd, or state's. The offense should be able to play with the same run first pass second offense that they have been and limit mistakes.
Michigan 35 neb 17
Nebraska's defense has looked horrible all year, I don't doubt that. However, walking into Lincoln for a night game is not going to be easy.
Northwestern blowing that game to the Huskers really hurts right now. Because if we lose next Saturday, we're going to lose the tie breaker to them in our division. I don't see Nebraska losing to Iowa, Minnesota or MSU the rest of their way despite all their defensive woes.
That's how important a win in Lincoln is. If we lose, I don't think we're going to the conference championship game unless Sparty can somehow beat the Huskers in East Lansing.
If UM loses in Lincoln, they will likely need Nebraska to lose two more games (which I don't think is very likely) as I expect UM to lose a close game against OSU in Columbus. As you pointed out, N'Western choking away that game really hurt UM's chances of playing for the B1G championship. The game in Lincoln this weekend will probably determine who wins the Legends division.
This game is going to be the Divisional Championship.
Doesn't Neb have to play PSU this year as well? I can see them losing that game. But if we drop one to them and to Ohio, then we're in trouble. Regardless, this is a very important game and will probably decide the division.
They do but the game is in Lincoln. I think home field advantage will be enough for Nebraska to win a close game against PSU.
One thing I learned as a Michigan fan is "Don't underestimate the power of that pink locker room."
Iowa already has 3 home losses this season. I don't think that pink locker room is going to make a difference this year.
But Wisconsin did us ever more of a disservice. Northwestern probably should have won. The Badgers had no business losing that game.
After watching last year's game and knowing that Lavonte David has graduated, I'm having a hard time seeing Nebraska favored.
first of all, I find this game very hard to call. Both teams are very good but not great and have flaws.
You guys have lost to much better teams, but beaten much worse teams. In the B1G, your opponents are 1-9 and 9-13 overall, ours are 9-3 and 20-4. For all games, Nebraska's SOS is .666, 14th nationally and 2nd in the B1G, vs UM .555, 46th, 7th. Your best road win was Purdue who you totally dominated, ours against NW that we statistically dominated but constantly shot ourselves in the foot and barely won. The best team you beat was MSU who's only 4-4 but it was an intense rivalry game. Our best win was against Wisconsin who's 6-2 and ranked.
Denard is great and Nebraska certainly has trouble with dual threat qb's, but Martinez has really upped his passing game this year and has a much better receiving corps than last year. We've rushed the ball extremely well even with Burkhead out a lot due to a very talented RB group. Overall I think we have more weapons on offense.
On paper, Michigan looks to have the best defense we've played all year. It's a little hard to tell due to your schedule but I think they pass the eyeball test. We have one of the best offenses you've played except for Alabama. Our defense is streaky and some of the stats are deceiving because our offense keeps turning the ball over and committing dumb penalties which has given teams like Wisconsin and OSU lots of cheap points.
If Nebraska doesn't shoot ourselves in the foot like we have in so many games this year, we'll win this night home game. If we continue to be our own worst enemy, Michigan will win.
Did you know this game will be the first conference game in college football history where both teams have won at least 850 games all-time? Nebraska will also be commemorating 50 consecutive years of sellout crowds at Memorial Stadium, what better way than playing the all-timer leader Michigan in your first game ever at Memorial Stadium? (The Wolverines played in Lincoln in 1911, 12 years before Memorial Stadium was built).
Win or lose, I guarantee your team and fans will be treated with respect in Lincoln.
Or you could not shoot yourself in the foot and still lose. Teams can still play good football and lose games without being your own worst enemy, whether it's your team or mine.
but from most Nebraska fan's perspective, our MO this year against better teams has been digging our own hole and then succeeding or failing to climb out. Inconsistently has been our biggest weakness.
I just don't think your offense is that much better than last years, which we were able to contain pretty easily. In my mind we should hold our own against the run and Martinez is too streaky a passer to take advantage of the questionable Michigan cornerbacks. I still don't see an example where you guys scored a lot against a 'good' defense.
I'd be most worried about your defense. The difference between Braxton Miller and Denard isn't that great...Ohio demolished your front 7 and when Nebraska loaded the box they had no chance with the over the top passes. I just don't see how this defense will suddenly step up. MSU's defense played an amazing game and Michigan's effort against them should not be taken as the norm. I'd look more to how Michigan played against Nebraska last year (when Nebraska had a better defense)...
You state the records of the teams you beat but the only 'good' team right now looks to be Wisco. The nonconference games were expected blowouts and a tough loss to an okay UCLA team (who lost to Cal 43-17). Northwestern was a nice victory for you guys but they will get dominated in Michigan stadium. We won't be leaving guys wide open like they did the entire 4th quarter.
I think it will be more competitive than last year but I'm liking Michigan's chances.
Nebraska's passing offense is MUCH better than last year. Nebraska's offense was like UM's last year: totally one dimensional. Now they can beat you on the ground or in the air (I still marvel at the improvement in Martinez's passing this season) while UM remains completely one dimensional.
UM has the advantage on defense, Nebraska the advantage on offense, Nebraska has home field advantage. As our Nebraska visitor pointed out, if Nebraska doesn't shoot themselves in the foot with turnovers they should win this game. I expect it to be a close game regardless.
Disagree. If Michigan doesn't turn the ball over, they should win.
I still don't think Martinez is that good at passing. He can hit open guys...and he can also throw terrible ducks. I don't think he will be better than Maxwell was.
Michigan's offense may have looked stagnant yesterday, but MSU has the perfect defense to stop mobile quarterbacks. They held OSU to 17. How much did Nebraska let up to OSU? 63? Yea...Michigan will score easy against the vaunted "Black Shirts"
and I don't see a lot here that I disagree with. I would say that, if both teams play mistake-free football, you have to give Michigan the edge because of the defense. Nebraska's offense is better this year than last, but its defense is not nearly as good, especiuially against the big play (Nebraska is giving up 4+ PPG more this year than last). Michigan is probably a bit down on both sides of the ball from where it was this time last year, but neither falloff is nearly as marked as Nebraska's defensive falloff.
That said, the edge in Michigan's favor won't be much of one.
I wish I could make it to Lincoln, if only to see the game in a new (to me) stadium. You Husker fans have an excellent rep as hosts, as well.
Here's to a clean, hard-fought game with the best team in winged helmets the winner! :)
Good input. Since nobody else has said this, I wonder if last year's ass-whooping in Ann Arbor will serve as added motivation to the Nebraska team. I think college teams that get humiliated often bounce back emotionally the next year, especially when they play the next year's game at home.
Does anyone else think Abdullah may be a bigger threat than Burkhead, if he's injured? If we don't defend the option well on one play, Abdullah has the speed and athleticism to house it. That's what worries me the most.
Plus, we don't have The Hulk to blow up options by forcing the pitch by himself as a DT.
Kovacs will be the man as usual.
He could be. We seem to have done a good job stopping power backs (Bell yesterday). Our defense will have to play disciplined in order to contain Abdullah. Fortunately this should be the best defense they have faced this season so far. It'll be a good test.
Rex is a between the tackles runner though not huge but runs hard and grinds, Martinez fits the 'lightening' part of their ground attack to the edge. Abdullah is no inside runner and as long as Michigan can contain they're not going to grind out yards up the middle. They're going to want to get to the edges or hit it quick up the middle. Rex was the starter for a reason. He's a poor man's Mike Hart. Not the fastest guy, or the strongest, but he gets you the tough yards consistently. He does all the little things and is a heads up player.
I agree. If Burkhead is out they won't be able to run between the tackles very well, and our D-line should be able to handle their O-line pretty well and keep contain, and our LBs are good enough to make the plays they'll need to. Our front 7 has really stepped up, I can't wait to see them destroying fools and making plays against these guys!!
...for multiple reasons, especially the nebulous "intangibles", but the main reason I hate having Burkhead out is that we can't run the special Wildcat package that's built around him. It seems that when the offense goes into an extended funk, running a short series with Burkhead under center or in the pistol often snaps the offense back to life. Plus, it's a hell of a lot of fun to watch (which doesn't really have anything to do with winning).
I'm hoping that we will be able to run and control the clock next week. Examples:
Braxton Miller (OSU): 16 carries for 186 yards (11.6 avg)
Carlos Hyde (OSU): 28 carries for 140 yards (5.0 avg)
Johnathan Franklin (UCLA): 26 carries for 217 yards (8.3 avg)
Northwesterns RB had over 100 yards as well, but his long was 80 so it's skewed a little bit.
If we can run the ball and if our defense can limit them enough on offense, we'll have a great chance to win (duh?).
Anything under 3 points, to me, is a toss-up. I've got a feeling this game will be the opposite of the MSU game: a shoot out. Denard will be Denard and make the Nebraska D look stupid, but Nebraska is a different team at home. It's going to be one of those who's got the ball last/ which defense can make a late stop kind of games.
I don't see a shoot out, but I think M will have to score more than 12 to win. I just think M wins going away. It won't be a blow out like last year, but around 10-11 points seems about right to me.
with road losses to Alabama, ND, NE, and OSU. If those games had been at home, I would have picked Michigan, with the exception of Bama. NE and OSU will be close losses.
was 10-2 with losses only to Alabama and Notre Dame. You are welcome to change your prediction to match mine. Then when it comes true we will both be happy.
As is the case in almost all road games, if UM wins the turnover battle, especially against Nebraska, they will have a great shot.
If we see the 2012 ND Denard in this game, it will probably be the same result.
Denard, at night, on the road, has not exactly been a recipe for success. He gets himself too jacked up hanging around all day. Someone needs to give him a Valium at about 3:00 PM and take him to a movie.
Can someone explain why a night game has a special atomosphere?
I didn't play football past middle school, so I missed Friday night games. I can't understand how there is a difference for the players. As a fan, yes it is more exciting because the lights, daylong build up, and the fact that there are less games going on at the same time.
I think the idea is that fans are typically more raucous (read: drunk) and that amplifies the usual home field advantage.
Seems a little steep, I think.
Haven't you guys payed attention to THE KNOWLEDGE? we won't be losing anymore games this year, no worries
I'm not sure what people are seeing with Nebraska that would make them a 2-point favorite. They just look to me like a somewhat talented, but piss poorly coached team. They give up 188 yards per game rushing. Now that, my friends, is some really sucky run defense. Their general demeanor and the way that they make an adventure out of every punt reminds me of the 2008 Michigan team.