Nebraska, Michigan remaining schedules

Submitted by turd ferguson on

It looks like the Legends division could be a two horse race the rest of the way, so it's worth looking at the schedules. They have the tiebreaker, but this thing is far from over.
 

MICHIGAN

@ Minnesota (11/3)
Northwestern (11/10)
Iowa (11/17)
@ Ohio State (11/24)
 

NEBRASKA

@ Michigan State (11/3)
Penn State (11/10)
Minnesota (11/17)
@ Iowa (11/23)


It seems unlikely that Nebraska runs the table (with any win probabilities I'm thinking of, at least).  If we can take care of business over the next three weeks - and damn, Denard would make that easier - then there's a good chance that the OSU game is for a trip to Indianapolis/Pasadena this year.
 

AgonyTrain

October 28th, 2012 at 1:30 AM ^

I will narrow it further and say everything comes down to a nerve in denard's right elbow that can apparently go kaput just by falling on the ground. They could lose to mn next week if he is injured early. A gopher team playing a true freshmen quarterback in his 2nd game who looked pretty damn good today

NYC Blue

October 28th, 2012 at 1:01 AM ^

I disagree.  Lost in the offensive disaster was that the defense played what was probably the best offense we had faced all season and held up pretty well even without a competent offense to take the pressure off them in the second half. 

In short, I think we answered doubters about our defense, and the disasterous offense had to do with Denard being out.  I still have the same questions about our offense I had going into this game, but I feel better about our defense.  And I like our chances more now against Ohio than I did last week.

 

 

Wolverine Devotee

October 28th, 2012 at 12:44 AM ^

It is our destiny to get to Indy. Michigan will do it. Hoke said in the postgame presser that Denard against minnesota next week playing is not a question.

Everyone just relax and have faith in this coaching staff.

Engin77

October 28th, 2012 at 12:54 AM ^

... makes an unfeated ND season appear more likely.
That will result in ND vs. 'bama BCS Championship game and send Oregon to the Rose Bowl, where they'll be a 20 pt favorite over the B1G Champ.

funkywolve

October 28th, 2012 at 1:09 AM ^

USC losing was blow to Oregon.  The only way for Oregon to go undefetaed is to beat USC in the regular season and if ND beats them USC is 8-4.  Oregon's chances to amass 'quality' wins just took a hit.  Oregon needs Stanford and Oregon St to win out expect when they play the Ducks.

outwest

October 28th, 2012 at 2:58 AM ^

Assuming Oregon runs the table and USC wins the Pac 12 South:

If that is the case, Oregon will play and have to beat USC two times to be the Pac - 12 champ.  I know USC is not what people thought this year, but that is still pretty impressive. 

I also don't like the idea of ND jumping Oregon to play in the title game.  Oregon's SOS is not the greatest but they do play a conference championship game.  ND obviously does not.  For Oregon to make it to the National Championship, they must win one more game than ND.  

Oregon's SOS ranking 50 (sagarin)                           ND's SOS ranking 20 (sagarin)

Oregon's remaining schedule:                                    ND's remaining schedule:

@ USC       (6-2)                                                              Pitt                               (4-4)

@ Cal          (3-6)                                                             @ Boston College    (2-6)

Stanford      (6-2)                                                             Wake Forest              (4-4)

@ OSU        (6-1)                                                            @ USC                        (6-2)

 

Oregon's remaining schedule W-L is 21-11

ND's remaining schedule W-L is 16-16

M-Dog

October 28th, 2012 at 8:17 AM ^

Oregon and ND will have a common opponenet in USC.  Fair perception or not, Oregon wins with style (read:  offense) while ND wins ugly (read:  defense).  

In all likelyhood, Oregon's win over USC will look "better" then ND's win over USC.  That will significantly impact the voting portion of the BCS formula.

Also, ND's big win over Michigan is not looking so big right now.  Oklahoma also has a loss or two left in them.

God knows the media will try, but they won't get ND into the NC game.

snoopblue

October 28th, 2012 at 12:53 AM ^

Nebraska will most likely lose twice, I don't really have any faith in Pelini to win. Michigan was playing like garbage with Denard and was still in the game, only when Denard went out did they open the game up. Penn State and Michigan State could beat them and maybe Minnesota (whose new QB looked good today) and Iowa (???) will get it together by the end of the season to play for all the corn.

Ohio LOOKS good, but the still might be a fraud. I really, really, REALLY hope we beat them.

Yeoman

October 28th, 2012 at 1:01 AM ^

(not adjusted for tonight's game, which will shift things in Neb's favor)

Michigan:

  • Minnesota 88%
  • Northwestern 77%
  • Iowa 82%
  • Ohio State 49%

Nebraska:

  • Michigan State 46%
  • Penn State 55%
  • Minnesota 87%
  • Iowa 59%

That works out to:

Michigan:

  • 4-0 27%
  • 3-1 46%
  • 2-2 23%
  • 1-3 4%
  • 0-4 0%

Nebraska

  • 4-0 13%
  • 3-1 37%
  • 2-2 36%
  • 1-3 13%
  • 0-4 1%

And that comes out to 50/50 on the nose for each team's chances of winning the division, ignoring the very unlikely possiblity of someone else stepping in.

Muttley

October 28th, 2012 at 2:11 AM ^

 

 

Michigan Drive Summaries

START QTR POSS. YARD PLAYS YARDS RESULT
00:51 2 00:51 MICH 45 3 -9 End of Half
13:32 3 00:55 MICH 46 3 7 Interception
11:48 3 01:29 MICH 32 3 -12 Punt
08:41 3 00:53 MICH 35 3 1 Punt
04:43 3 04:01 MICH 21 8 58 Field Goal Good
11:40 4 00:08 MICH 20 1 0 Interception
10:19 4 03:25 MICH 29 7 43 Interception

 

Given that 45 of the FG drive yards came from penalties, I'd say that we are worse than MSU on offense w/o Denard.

snarling wolverine

October 28th, 2012 at 12:12 PM ^

I agree that Bellomy looked awful - but we have to remember, we gameplanned with the expectation that Denard would be our QB.  Anytime you have to go to an inexperienced QB in the middle of a game - one with a very different skillset - it's going to be rough.  Think about Illinois replacing Scheelhaas with O'Toole.  O'Toole has at times played decently for them, but in the game against us, he had to come in cold and try to run a gameplan designed for Scheelhaas.  They gained like 20 yards of offense with him in there.

funkywolve

October 28th, 2012 at 1:03 AM ^

I realize their defense isn't that good but neither was nebraka's and UM wasn't exactly putting a ton of points on the board with Denard in there.  Hoke/Borges have dialed back the offense because the defense is solid and they want to minimize turnovers. 

Borges (and Hoke) need to game plan for OSU expecting that they are going to need to score some points.  Meyer knows what the OSU-UMgame is all about and I have no doubt he'll have some tricks up his sleeve.  This UM defense is good, but if Hoke/Borges go into that game thinking they only need to score 17-20 points, UM is going to be in trouble.

husker4life

October 28th, 2012 at 1:17 AM ^

Did not come ready to play and even with Denard in we were still struggling on the ground. We can't let this game shatter our confidence going forward. We need a strong game against Minneosta next weekend. It seems like a lot of teams are getting revenge for last years losses. Nebraska vs Ohio St MSU vs Wisconsin MSU vs UM MSU vs Ohio St. I just hope we win out. If we beat Minny Iowa and NW the legends is ours. We need Nebraska to fall to Sparty next weekend. I knew the Legends would come down to Michigan and Nebraska and right I was. NW winning last weekend would of helped big time right now.

NYC Blue

October 28th, 2012 at 1:19 AM ^

Denard went out with a bunch of time left (not sure how much- about 6 min maybe?) in the 2nd quarter.  We had 6 points and were in the red zone 1st and goal.  That is potentially 13 points before the end of the first half with halftime adjustments still to come.

I think that is a pretty reasonable offensive output.  Not great, but not terrible. 

I also don't think there is anything to suggest that when facing a high powered offense and suspect defense, that Hoke and Borges wont open up the offense.  They were certainly challenging Nebraska deep in the first half.

 

PurpleStuff

October 28th, 2012 at 1:32 AM ^

We had 3 when Denard went out.  The drive stalled with Bellomy and we made it 7-6.  The bigger issue came when we forced turnovers right before and right after halftime in NU territory that resulted in -3 points. 

For all the legitimate gripes, this is a game we win if Denard plays.

Jonesy

October 28th, 2012 at 1:25 AM ^

The UM D is good against the run, did you watch our pass defense?  They finally scored a touchdown on that first half drive because they ran the ball 0 times.  We didn't cover anyone the entire game and the only time we stopped Nebraska is when they ran the ball too much, dropped passes, and/or threw uncatchable passes.

NYC Blue

October 28th, 2012 at 1:40 AM ^

It is not as simple as that.  It was a combination of the passing and running an up-tempo offense, and us being caught with personell designed to stop the run- we had Kovacs covering one of their receivers-- I love Kovacs, but that is not his strength.

It is not something that can be duplicated drive after drive (Nebraska only scored 23 - their lowest total of the season), and OSU does not run such an efficient passing attack.  They need to rely on the run much more-- Braxton Miller is not an accurate enough passer. 

So yes, we are better against the run than the pass, but that works for us considering the strengths of the teams we will face, and we are not exactly a sieve against the pass.