Nebraska defense 2007 vs 2008
*This is a repost of a diary I put up after the Penn State game last year. I took out the part debating if we should change our head coach. After Brians gloom post about our defense improving to 99th, I thought this would be intereting to look over again. I'm cautiously optimistic about our defense for this season. Mattison bitches, Mattison.
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Nebraska 2007 defensive statistics
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Nebraska 2008 defensive statistics |
|---|---|
| Points allowed 455 | Points allowed 371 |
| PPG 37.9 | PPG 28.5 |
| First Downs allowed 299 | First Downs allowed 228 |
| Rush yards allowed 2,786 | Rush yards allowed 1514 |
| Rush YPC 5.2 | Rush YPC 3.6 |
| Rushing TD’s allowed 38 | Rushing TD’s allowed 24 |
| OPP. ATT-COMP-INT 409-236-8 | OPP. ATT-COMP-INT 385-222-12 |
| Passing yards allowed 2.936 | Passing yards allowed 3,034 |
| Pass TD’s allowed 20 | Pass TD’s allowed 19 |
| Pos | 2007 Defensive two deep | 2008 Defensive two deep |
|---|---|---|
| DE |
99 Barry Turner 6-3 250 Jr. 88 Clayton Sievers 6-4 245 Jr |
99 Barry Turner 6-3 260 Sr. Clayton Sievers 6-4 255 Sr |
| DT |
43 Ty Steinkuhler 6-3 285 Jr. 96 Brandon Johnson 6-3 315 Sr. |
97 Kevin Dixon 6-3 285 Sr. 43 Ty Steinkuhler 6-3 280 Sr. |
| NT |
93 Ndamukong Suh 6-3 305 Soph. 96 Shurkee Barfield 6-4 310 Jr. |
93 Ndamukong Suh 6-3 300 Jr. 56 Shurkee Barfield 6-4 300 Sr |
| DE |
98 Zach Potter 6-7 280 Jr. 95 Pierre Allen 6-5 265 RFr. |
98 Zach Potter 6-7 280 Sr. 95 Pierre Allen 6-5 265 Soph. |
| SLB |
51 Bo Ruud 6-3 235 Sr. 38 Kyle Moore 6-2 225 RFr. |
53 Tyler Wortman 6-3 235 Sr 12 Blake Lawrence 6-2 225 Soph. |
| MLB |
13 Corey McKeon 6-1 225 Sr. 40 Lance Brandenburgh 6-1 230 Sr. |
52 Phillip Dillard 6-1 238 Jr. 54 Colton Koehler 6-1 230 Jr. |
| WLB |
15 Steve Octavien 6-0 240 Sr. 40 Lance Brandenburgh 6-1 230 Sr. |
34 Cody Glenn 6-0 230 Sr. 23 Latravis Washington 6-3 225 Soph. |
| CB |
2 Cortney Grixby 5-9 170 Sr. 5 Armando Murillo 6-0 195 Jr. |
5 Armando Murillo 6-0 190 Sr. 28 Eric Hagg 6-1 200 Soph |
| FS |
30 Tierre Green 6-1 200 Sr. 9 Bryan Wilson 6-1 205 Sr. |
3 Rickey Thenarse 6-0 195 Jr. 33 Matt O'Hanlon 5-11 195 Sr. |
| SS |
9 Bryan Wilson 6-1 205 Sr 4 Larry Asante 6-1 210 Soph. |
4 Larry Asante 6-1 210 Jr. 6 Major Culbert 6-0 205 Jr. |
| CB | 25 Andre Jones 6-0 190 Sr. | 21 Prince Amukamara 6-1 195 Soph. |
In 2007 the Nebraska two deep had 5 underclassmen; in 2008 there were 5 underclassmen. The roster was very similar in both seasons. In 2007 Nebraska had a pretty shitty defense composed of mostly upperclassmen, in 2008 with the same amount of upperclassmen there was significant defense improvements. The 2008 defense allowed 84 less points, despite playing an additional game. In 2008 the rush defense improved by 1,272 yards, with the YPC dropping by 1.6 yards.
So what is the cause for this massive one-season turn around? A coaching change. 2008 was Bo Pelini’s FIRST season as head coach. In 2007 Bill Callahan’s team went 5-7; in 2008 Bo Pelini went 9-4.
Thank you for posting this; it's buried, but I requested Brian do something similar. Look at say the top 5 or 10 D turnarounds over the past 20 years or so, then look at the factors that went into it. Do we mirror it in anyway? Your illustration clearly points to the coaching change. We know on the defensive side of the ball there has been a major upgrade in staff and dare I speculate, staff chemistry.
and look for reasons why we are similar, then you're likely to find and expect a best case scenario.
Brian's intent seemed to be to find a reasonable and rational expectation, not a best-case scenario.
We can make that part up on our own. Watch this:
Martin: Hasn't been all-conference yet, but now he's a senior --> stud
Campbell: Has been too awful to see the field, but he's a 5 star with good coaches now --> good starter
Van Bergen: meh player so far, but now he's a senior + coaches --> all-conference
Roh: kinda small and inconsistent, but now he's at DE --> all-conference
Demens: couldn't beat out Ezeh for a long time, but the light is on now --> all-conference
C. Gordon: too small, but obvious talent and finally at the right position --> all-conference
Evans/Jones/Ryan: someones going to step up at WLB --> decent starter
Woolfolk: recovered. fast. proven 5th year senior. leader --> all-conference
Avery/Countess/Floyd: someones going to step up at the other CB spot --> decent starter
Johnson: looked good as a freshman contributer --> decent starter
Kovacs/Robinson: grit or talent = can't lose --> decent starter
Best Case Scenario: No major deficiencies, multiple all-conference starters and overall...Best D in the Big10!
Not looking for reasons WHY we are similar, just interested IF we are similar in anyway.
You are certainly correct that we could probably mine the data we wanted if we were hellbent on finding certain correlations.
if you want to find them (like the above)
I guess I'm saying it's going to be hard to find something insightful if you're only looking at best-case-scenarios. Your conclusions will be pretty obvious from the start.
I admire your enthusiasm.
...having a more defensive minded coach, having the right scheme in place helped those guys have a break out year. Maybe Hulk Martin has a massive break out year this year, due to the changes implemented by this staff.
I know it is happy shiny thinking but hey it is the summer, let me dream.
Not eactly on your comment, but close enough I guess...
As much as we talk about how defensive recruiting is down, I still think that we have more talent than a school like, say, Iowa. With good coaching/development, even over the course of one offseason it stands to reason that there will be a good improvement over last year.
Absolutely agree. I would be interested though to know how much of a scheme change there was when Pellini came in; Did Suh benefit from a scheme change or simply better coaching in the same scheme? I am in no way saying Mike Martin will play at a Suh level (nobody will, love that guy and think he will go down as one of the best DL to ever play the game). But, Martin healthy with the added bonus of a fellow DT next to him...I think we see his game go to the next level, and it was already pretty damn good.
Amukamara? Watch out for Al Backey...yes, I'm kidding. You're right about these 2 guys being a big part of it. I do think though, it does underscore a point made in the comments on Brian's analysis. Amukamara went from Frosh to Soph, and Suh from Soph to Jr (true, I assume? not RS?). Basically...the question remains, all defenses that return the same number of players are not created equal. Are a lot of them 5th year guys returning, likely making a smaller improvement than say Frosh, who gained a ton of game experience, coming back for their sophmore years? So many factors.
Suh was a starter both seasons. Prince was a freshman nickleback in 2007 also, got cut off my chart for some reason. Suh is a very rare talent, but you could argue Mike Martin is at least comparable. I don't think think it's out of the relm of possibility that Avery could make a prince like impact, who also went from frosh to soph in this comparison. I don't see how you can say, they had growth and improvment, we have no chance at that. Growth and improvement under a established defensive coach, a year after having a coach with no clue how to run a defense, was the whole point of this post.
This time three years ago, no one knew that Suh and Amukumara would become Suh and Amukumara.
Courtney Avery and Jibreel Black could go all butterfly on us and be first round picks in the 2014 NFL Draft. Nobody knows.
I know Amukamara turned into a great NFL level player but at this poiint he was only a three star prospect to both Rivals and Scout entering his soph year. There is no reason to think one of our corners can't contribute at at at least a comparable level this year.
is that 99% of 3-star cornerbacks (which is what we have) don't turn into top 10 NFL draftpicks. Amukamara is an exception.
Looking at just the scores, Nebraska's 07 defense pretty much looks like our 2010 defense. And they gave up 3 points less and played one less game.
| 2007 - Nebraska (Big 12) | |||||||
| 9/1 | vs. | Nevada (6-7) | W | 52 | 10 | ||
| 9/8 | @ | Wake Forest (9-4) | W | 20 | 17 | ||
| 9/15 | vs. | Southern California (11-2) | L | 31 | 49 | ||
| 9/22 | vs. | Ball State (7-6) | W | 41 | 40 | ||
| 9/29 | vs. | *Iowa State (3-9) | W | 35 | 17 | ||
| 10/6 | @ | *Missouri (12-2) | L | 6 | 41 | ||
| 10/13 | vs. | *Oklahoma State (7-6) | L | 14 | 45 | ||
| 10/20 | vs. | *Texas A&M (7-6) | L | 14 | 36 | ||
| 10/27 | @ | *Texas (10-3) | L | 25 | 28 | ||
| 11/3 | @ | *Kansas (12-1) | L | 39 | 76 | ||
| 11/10 | vs. | *Kansas State (5-7) | W | 73 | 31 | ||
| 11/23 | @ | *Colorado (6-7) | L | 51 | 65 | ||
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5-7-0 |
401 | 455 | |||||
Although, it's interesting to note that Callahan's 05 and 06 teams didn't struggle too much defensively, giving up 256 points and 252 points. It's not like with RichRod where we NEVER had a defense.
With Mattison back, I know eventually we'll get back to better defenses but I'm not EXPECTING it in year one. I'm just crossing my fingers and doing alot of praying.
either graduated or moved. Remind you of anyone? Mattison is looking to make the same type of first year gains: Stop the run, lock down the red zone, pressure the qb. That and an occasional 5 man front will make a huge difference in one year.
Seeing as how our defense was ranked in the triple digits last year, if we field a decent defense that puts up middle-of-the-pack numbers both nationally and in the conference, then that would be a win of epic proportions for this staff.
I really don't see the best case scenario being much better than that.