ND Redux as Big ? Expansion Option
In several earlier threads, ND is generally listed as the most desireable expansion option on all counts, but then obviated due to:
-previous spurn of an offer to join
-NBC TV deal.
But do these really disqualify them?
If they were joining tomorrow, yes, except they wouldn't be. The earliest prediction for officially adding a new school is 4 years, which might be optimistic, but we will go with it for now.
ND's NBC deal runs 6 more years, if I am not mistaken. Do they expect it to get extended? In my opinion, NBC signed the deal expecting that Weis & Co. would be nationally relevant during that time period and provide them with compelling games that factor somehow into the BCS picture. I would expect they have been disappinted thus far in that respect and would not be salivating to renew that arrangement at the present time. Pending a major turnaround by Kelly that is not likely to be immediate, I would look at an extension as anything but guaranteed.
With regard to the previous spurn of an invite, it was done in a wholly different environment than today, when ND was more a national power and much more optimistic about getting/being elite. There was not nearly the fragmentation in broadcasting and parity between teams that exists today. Were I ND, I would consider a long term reurn to elite status as possible, but like a contract extension, not guaranteed, and certainly not guaranteed to last forever.
If I were ND officials looking 6 years into the future, I might be a bit more humble and pragmatic about where my revenue comes from. Given the over-expenditure on the Weis experiment, they might not be as likely to gamble as heavily on Kelly being the Second (actually, perhaps 3rd or 4th, depending on how you look at it) Coming and put them in a position where NBC would want to renew.
I think that the conference and ND could work something out for whatever overlap there might be in reaching the end of their NBC deal. NBC might be amenable to dropping a year at this point, big 10 network, I'm sure, would be happy to take away games only for 1-2 years.
If ND were to not join, Kelly turns out to be a bust, or even if he is successful, but in today's environment this doesn't translate into an elite status that would warrant a one-team exclusive broadcasting deal, they could very much be left out in the cold, staring into an abyss where they can't drive enough revenue to stay competitive and that would be a pretty scary situation for them. Big 10 would have no room at that point, where do they go? Big East?
I'm just sayin'
December 16th, 2009 at 6:05 PM ^
If ND joins, it would have to be as a wholly equal member, outside of possibly grandfathering in their current TV deal.
I don't think the B10 should give them any of the special rights or priveledges they would expect because they're "Notre Dame".
ND is clearly the best option out there, followed by Pitt and Rutgers.
December 17th, 2009 at 3:41 AM ^
possibly grandfathering in their current TV deal with NBC and perhyaps adjusting rev shares somewhat to offset that.
December 16th, 2009 at 6:31 PM ^
With the CIC.
December 16th, 2009 at 6:42 PM ^
ND "humble?" I think you've hit on the stumbling block and deal-killer right there.
If anything, ND is going to be even more unsufferably obnoxious now that they've got their newest wonder-boy coach. Frankly, I expect that if they win 8 games or more next season, NBC will tear up their contract, re-up for another ten years, and throw in a personal visit from the Pope in the bargain.
December 16th, 2009 at 6:59 PM ^
I guess my point was that having been VERY quick to extend the contract of their last wonderboy after some initial success and getting burned pretty badly, they may not be so quick to become giddy in the Las Vegas sense and gamble on future success.
If they get 8 wins, yes they will be insufferable (so would UM fans, at least some of us), but what if that is all they ever get? It is possible that they end up a perennial 8-9 win team with a few 10 win seasons, yes, in fact very probable over the next 3-4 years with 10 wins being a stretch.
Will they start throwing $$ around again at that point? I don't believe they would, unless that was enough to get NBC to say 'extenze', which I doubt.
December 16th, 2009 at 7:37 PM ^
What does ND get by joining the big ten? It is going to need to be some amazing deal, because I just don't see it from the ND side of things, it might be best for the big ten but I don't see how it is for ND.
December 16th, 2009 at 8:47 PM ^
Unless that's not important to you
December 17th, 2009 at 12:20 AM ^
pssshh why would ND care about that /sarcasm
Actually they already share research and resources with different universities, I think there is a list on the website somewhere...
December 16th, 2009 at 9:01 PM ^
Nothing as it stands now... but if the B10 is serious about ND they need to make a serious offer.
1. Give ND first right to accept the invitation but have Pitt ready if they refuse.
If ND once again sticks there nose in the air...
2. Take Michigan, Purdue and State off the ND schedule immediately.
3. Refuse to recognize the ND independent status in any capacity including BCS and Bowl Games.
4. Strongly encourage other confrences to do the same and go far as to embargo anyone who recognizes ND's independent status.
Why should ND recieve preferential treatment as an independent like some service academy? Why tolerate ND having the ability to have an NBC deal? Every Irish fan has this sense of embellished entitlement. ND needs to be made to play by the same rules and then they will realize "What they get" by losing what they have.
December 16th, 2009 at 11:07 PM ^
To be fair (and as much as I hate to admit), ND gets what it does due to market dynamics resulting from history/tradition, not some shady backroom deal. Maybe this erodes over time as mediocre seasons pile up, but to do as you're suggesting would be anti-free market and frankly purely out of jealousy/spite.
December 17th, 2009 at 12:18 AM ^
lol, oh man, its not like ND has nuclear weapons, wow
December 16th, 2009 at 9:36 PM ^
What does Notre Dame get? Money. There are many factors to consider, but the main sticking point that most people say will keep them independent is the NBC TV deal and the BCS money.
They get $1 million each year from the BCS and $4.5 million if they make a bowl game. Most people say that the TV deal is around $9 million. So even assuming that Kelly is amazing and gets to a BCS bowl game every year their TV and BCS money is $13.5 million.
The Big Ten TV contracts pay out approximately $15 million to each school. With Notre Dame in the conference I would have to estimate that the share will stay about the same even with the extra mouth to feed. Dividing the BCS money by 12 each year gives $1.8 million. That means Notre Dame would get an extra $3 million a year by joining the Big Ten.
I ignored the other bowl payouts because I figured that each school's share would be roughly equal to the average non-BCS bowl payout that Notre Dame receives.
One of the negative considerations for Notre Dame is ticket revenue. It would be impossible for them to have 8 home games (the neutral site counts as a [non-sold out] home game for ticket purposes) since they would want to keep up the games with USC and Navy. However, with USC and Navy home-and-away in opposite years and 3 other one-off home games they would have 7 home games each year.
December 17th, 2009 at 3:34 AM ^
There would be a more stable, guaranteed revenue stream as opposed to one that depends on the NBC contract.
If they don't get themseleves back in the eli6te status, that NBC contract that keeps things so lucrative for ND right might not continue, or at very least it will not be worth nearly what it was when NBC first signed it. At that time, ND looked poised to be back on top rather quickly, new hot-shot coach, decent team, experienced QB...and let's not forget their schematic advantage ;)
I'm not caling for ND's head or some kind of vendetta if they don't join and I wouldn't be bitter about it, ND should do what is best for ND.
Bottom line, if they are not an elite team and do not appear like they are going to reach that staus again before the NBC contract renews, they might get the shaft. NBC could do much better by filling that airtime with a more compelling set og conference spillover games that would be a bigger draw, rather than saddle themselves with a disappointing ND squad playing service academys and getting trounced by USC.
December 16th, 2009 at 11:01 PM ^
stop playing them. Instead of an offer I'd give them an ultimatum. This BS should have stopped along time ago. Big Ten Teams need to stop signing contracts with ND(Michigan). Like Irish says "it is going to have to be an amazing deal", how about take your flying circus else where. This elitism that is typical of Irish Fans was handed to them by teams such as Michigan. Hey winner-winner, is no longer the theme being played out. ND can't hear the calls of logic, they're to busy counting their money.....Others might also argue, why mess with a good thing and get married-lets just live in sin-must be ND's way of thinking-ha ha.
December 17th, 2009 at 12:22 AM ^
ND is the only legit OOC opponent that UM, MSU and Purdue play on a regular basis, do you seriously think MSU and Purdue will just end their contracts and turn their backs on the revenue ND brings? The Wisconsin AD even tried to oust Purdue from our schedule to take their place. PSU is burning to get back to a home and home series with ND, yeah the rest of the big ten is really sharpening the pitch forks.