ND Currently a 4/4.5 Point Favorite for Saturday

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September 5th, 2011 at 4:37 PM
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bklein09
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Joined: 08/24/2009
MGoPoints: 3023
ND Currently a 4/4.5 Point Favorite for Saturday

Not sure if this is thread worthy, but I heard the line moved from ND -3.5 earlier today to where it is currently.

IMO, this is the perfect situation.

ND lost last week, which I was thrilled about.

But they are still the favored team coming into the Big House and a particularly hostile environment.

The pressure is on ND more than ever now, considering they are still favored, can't afford to go 0-2, don't want to drop 3 in a row to us, and have a coach that may murder them in their sleep if they make a mistake. 

Michigan on the other hand has the home-field advantage and can continue to feel like they aren't getting any respect. I'm really hoping that they come out and play fast and loose on Saturday.

I think the game will come down to whoever makes the fewest big mistakes. And hopefully all of these intangibles will result in that team being Michigan.

Those Who Stay...

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September 5th, 2011 at 4:43 PM | What's the over/under on when (Score:4 Normal)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1729

What's the over/under on when Brian Kelly's head explodes?

September 5th, 2011 at 4:45 PM | (No subject) (Score:5 Funny)
seniorbearcat
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Joined: 08/18/2010
MGoPoints: 409

[ED: Unembiggened]

~I can put you in Queens on the night of the hijacking. 
~Really? I live in Queens. Did you put that together yourself, Einstein?

September 5th, 2011 at 4:46 PM | big picture is a little bit (Score:4 Normal)
david from wyoming
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Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 2814

big picture is a little big

Are you a park ranger at Yellowstone? Say hi to Yogi Bear for me. - the_big_house 500th

I may not be a 70 year old man. - Herm

September 5th, 2011 at 4:53 PM | I scrolled over to the point where (Score:1)
hart20
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Joined: 05/25/2011
MGoPoints: 3711

Brian Kelly's face is taking up my whole screen and laughed out loud.

Yep, that's Simba made out of a pineapple.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:28 PM | That may have to take the (Score:2 Normal)
ckersh74
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3439

That may have to take the place of Tom Hammond. You could scare the shit out of little kids on Halloween with that pic.

September 5th, 2011 at 4:45 PM | lol (Score:0 Redundant)
September 5th, 2011 at 4:46 PM | ND overrated?? I have never (Score:5 Normal)
Gobluegr
Joined: 07/07/2011
MGoPoints: 647

ND overrated?? I have never heard of a such thing.

Tremendous 2014 rankings

September 5th, 2011 at 4:46 PM | see more Gifs (Score:5 Normal)
HAILtoBO
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Joined: 01/17/2011
MGoPoints: 852

Haters Gonna Hate GIF - Haters gonna hate.
see more Gifs

 

"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing."

September 5th, 2011 at 4:48 PM | We didn't cover many games at (Score:2)
dennisblundon
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Joined: 02/23/2010
MGoPoints: 6631

We didn't cover many games at all last year and none at all down the stretch. The betting public hasn't forgot this and the line reflects this. I think with so many question marks for both teams still I would have made the line Michigan -2, only because we are the home team. At this point the pubic doesn't even know who ND's starting QB is.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:05 PM | speak for yourself. (Score:5 Insightful)
mfan_in_ohio
Joined: 01/26/2009
MGoPoints: 1904

My pubic knows exactly who the QB will be.

September 5th, 2011 at 4:48 PM | 500+ yards against any BCS (Score:5 Normal)
jtmc33
Joined: 04/15/2009
MGoPoints: 4916

500+ yards against any BCS program (be it Big East or not) scares the crap out of me. And giving up career numbers to a MAC wideout the week before playing against Michael Floyd scares the piss out of me.

Time for out D to make a (positive) statement - time to pound Rees/Crist and force them to throw off their back foot all game.

I gotta fever, and the only prescription is MOAR BLITZING

Class of '97: 4 Years -- 4 Four-loss seasons

September 5th, 2011 at 5:08 PM | That MAC wideout had (Score:5 Normal)
MGoBlue96
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Joined: 12/26/2010
MGoPoints: 1025

94 catches for 1378 yards and 10 tds last year. Granted Michael Floyd  is more talented and our secondary will have it's hands full trying to contain him, but White wasn't exactly some nobody.

I would also like to point out that Michigan did a decent job of keepng Floyd in check in last years meeting.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:54 PM | Greg Jennings (Score:5 Normal)
ssuarez
Joined: 11/03/2008
MGoPoints: 224

Those numbers are pretty comparable to what Greg Jennings put up as a senior at Western.....He turned out to be pretty good...

September 5th, 2011 at 8:56 PM | Michigan's D or (Score:1)
Maize and Blue ...
Maize and Blue 4 Life's picture
Joined: 03/15/2009
MGoPoints: 3516

Dayne Crist who doesn't seem to like to throw the ball to Floyd.  I would prefer DC start as Reis (sp) has a habit of looking for Floyd

September 5th, 2011 at 5:05 PM | Take two glances (Score:5 Normal)
hart4eva
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Joined: 02/21/2011
MGoPoints: 183

Take two glances at this a day and call Greg Mattison on Saturday morning if you aren't feeling better.

 

"Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules." - Walter Sobchak

September 5th, 2011 at 6:16 PM | Things that failed Carder on (Score:4 Normal)
biakabutuka exp...
biakabutuka explosion 3000's picture
Joined: 04/17/2009
MGoPoints: 2165

Things that failed Carder on Saturday:

  1. His O-Line
  2. His chinstrap
September 5th, 2011 at 4:49 PM | This is seriously such bs. We (Score:1 Normal)
HAILtoBO
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Joined: 01/17/2011
MGoPoints: 852

This is seriously such bs. We never get the respect we deserve, I can't wait for Hoke to pull out his playbook and show kelly how to coach a football team. In the western game Hoke didn't show much. All that he showed was is they do have running plays for Denard. He played very basic football with running the ball up the middle and the occasional pass plays. Our D came out at first and struggled but once that rain hit they went to work. We just gotta double team floyd and we shouldn't have any problems with beating the irish.

 

"When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing."

September 5th, 2011 at 4:52 PM | Yes if there's one thing you can say about Michigan (Score:5 Normal)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7196

it's that we're usually underrated by the media...

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

September 5th, 2011 at 4:56 PM | Sorry, but what have we done (Score:2 Informative)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1729

Sorry, but what have we done to deserve respect?  Although we beat Notre Dame last year, they finished the season on a much higher note, and beat a respectable opponent in their bowl game. We aren't entitled to anything, and if we want respect, we better earn it.  Beating Western doesn't do this.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:14 PM | Beating a 7-6 Miami (Score:5 Normal)
MGoBlue96
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Joined: 12/26/2010
MGoPoints: 1025

team in a bowl game isn't that impressive. Miami's qb's combined for more ints than tds last year.

September 5th, 2011 at 6:19 PM | No, not impressive.  Though, (Score:3 Informative)
MGoBender
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Joined: 03/26/2010
MGoPoints: 5138

No, not impressive.  Though, slightly more impressive than giving up 50+ to MSU (NTMSU).

CoE Class of 2007

September 5th, 2011 at 4:55 PM | You kinda sound like you (Score:4 Normal)
dharmabum
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Joined: 05/18/2010
MGoPoints: 321

You kinda sound like you should be writing on RCMB there...

September 5th, 2011 at 5:42 PM | LULZ. Yea we should have been (Score:0 Flamebait)
September 5th, 2011 at 4:49 PM | Only one thing to say here. (Score:2)
Moe Greene
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Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 2133

See Jacobson, D. 2008.

 

No radio. Nothing of value.

September 5th, 2011 at 4:52 PM | Just fyi (Score:5 Normal)
samber2009
Joined: 08/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1742

I rarely pay attention to the spread for this game.

year

Away

points

Home

points

Homeline

2010

UM

28

ND

24

-3.5

2009

ND

34

UM

38

+3

2008

UM

17

ND

35

-1

2007

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2006

UM

47

ND

21

-6

 

A Møøse once bit my sister. No realli!

 

September 5th, 2011 at 5:32 PM | This (Score:3 Normal)
GCS
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 777

I've read enough Jamie Mac to know that being the underdog in this game is a good thing.

http://www.justcoverblog.com/2010/08/07/notre-damemichigan-the-winner-peaks-part-i/

September 5th, 2011 at 6:01 PM | that's your sample size? (Score:-1 Overrated)
September 5th, 2011 at 6:27 PM | That's your contribution to this thread? (Score:1)
samber2009
Joined: 08/10/2009
MGoPoints: 1742

I guess I'll highlight the decade, but I was just trying to point out the spread hasn't mattered the last few years, but here you go.

 

year

Away

points

Home

points

Homeline

2010

UM

28

ND

24

-3.5

2009

ND

34

UM

38

+3

2008

UM

17

ND

35

-1

2007

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2006

UM

47

ND

21

-6

2005

ND

17

UM

10

-8

2004

UM

20

ND

28

+10.5

2003

ND

0

UM

38

-9.5

2002

UM

23

ND

25

+5.5

1999

ND

22

UM

26

-7

 

A Møøse once bit my sister. No realli!

 

September 5th, 2011 at 10:10 PM | my point was, that's not how (Score:0 Overrated)
September 5th, 2011 at 4:57 PM | There were tweets this morning that the line opened at +1.5 (Score:1)
Jivas
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Joined: 07/06/2008
MGoPoints: 2373

If that's the case, then the line has moved quite a bit today in ND's favor.

I've had the game as 50-50, but the line has me a little concerned that our true odds are a little less than 50%.  Of course, if we win I won't give 2 shits what our true odds were.

Denard's 2010 was spent redefining what one man can do.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:41 PM | Since when does the line (Score:0 Normal)
September 5th, 2011 at 5:56 PM | opened at 1.5, up to 4.5 at (Score:0 Overrated)
September 5th, 2011 at 5:00 PM | Whatever. (Score:1)
BlueDragon
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Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 16726

Less the 3-point home advantage, this means ND is favored by a touchdown.  They're just trying to get more money on the game.  I'm interested to see what happens with ND's ranking this week, though.  That's traditionally been a giant bull's-eye for M-ND games, what with all the upsets the higher ranked team seems to suffer and all.

Abort, Retry, Fail?

September 5th, 2011 at 5:24 PM | I think the line moving is (Score:1)
bklein09
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Joined: 08/24/2009
MGoPoints: 3023

I think the line moving is based on tons of people betting ND despite last week because of all the "mitigating factors" of their loss.

Every single ND fan's post I have seen since their game seems to be chalking the loss up to a fluke that says absolutely nothing about the quality of their team.

I won't argue that the cumulation of events that occured in the USF game is unlikely to happen again.

However, that doesn't mean that some of NDs mistakes were not on them.

The bottom line is that the QB who earned the starting job for them over the summer is now on the bench. I know Rees wasn't far behind, but Crist obvisouly looked better in the off-season. 

And as we have all seen over the past 3+ years, things like muffed punts, fumbles, and dropped passes don't just disappear overnight. 

They also missed a FG, and although their kicker is normally very good, we know that kicking is a mental game. He has to have just a little less confidence in himself now, and that could be just enough to produce another miss in a hostile environment. 

Those Who Stay...

September 5th, 2011 at 5:31 PM | Out of many unusual occurences that night (Score:1)
BlueDragon
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Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 16726

After ND's first touchdown, Tommy Rees got into a pushing match with another player on the sideline.  I think Kelly's methods are setting his players against one another.  I don't think he's in any danger of losing the locker room, but it can't be good for the team when the "Leaders" of the team are facing serious challenges from their subordinates.

Also, if your run defense can't stop a Big East team, that's bad.

Abort, Retry, Fail?

September 6th, 2011 at 12:52 AM | Either I missed your point or (Score:1)
blue note
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Joined: 02/04/2009
MGoPoints: 433

Either I missed your point or you're confused.

USF ran for 128 yards on 3.0 ypc

 

September 6th, 2011 at 3:19 AM | MGoBoard thread: (Score:1)
BlueDragon
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Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 16726

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/observations-usf-notre-dame-game

From 2. Notre Dame Defense:

a. They had some trouble with BJ Daniels, a mobile QB. There were some times he scrambled 5, 6 yards to pick up the first. If it was Denard scrambling on those plays, he could have easily gone for 20.

c. ND’s run D was nothing special. They only allowed 3.0 yards a carry, and 126 yards rushing but I think if you looked at rushing outside of the red zone, YPC would jump up. It felt like USF was running the ball for 4, 5 yards outside the red zone but once they got in the red zone, they were stopped.

g. My ND friend said the D line was not good enough to stop the run until they got to the goal line, and on passing downs they didn’t get much penetration.

Abort, Retry, Fail?

September 5th, 2011 at 6:43 PM | All I know is that I will be (Score:1 Normal)
ownaporsche
Joined: 09/04/2011
MGoPoints: 42

All I know is that I will be dropping some serious dough on Michigan this weekend. I like the line to be honest. I can see Borges opening up the playbook more, havinhg a more solid kicking game, etc.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:19 PM | This (Score:1)
UM Indy
Joined: 03/05/2009
MGoPoints: 1401

makes me happy. The rats will always follow the shamrock bedecked Pied Piper.

"Better to have died as a small boy than to fumble this football" -- John Heisman

September 5th, 2011 at 5:22 PM | Really?  With how poor they (Score:3 Normal)
Swazi
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Joined: 08/13/2010
MGoPoints: 2558

Really?  With how poor they played and how well we plaayed THEY'RE the favorite?  Especially with it being at Ann Arbor for the first night game, so the crowd and our kids are going to be extra amped.  But, whatever, I'll take another upset win over the Irish.

If you need drugs to be a good writer, you're not a good writer.

-Rod Serling

September 5th, 2011 at 7:31 PM | I don't mean to burst your (Score:0 Overrated)
September 5th, 2011 at 5:25 PM | Phuck Notre dame (Score:-1 Flamebait)
September 5th, 2011 at 5:29 PM | Doesn't matter. Every year (Score:1)
MGoblu8
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Joined: 08/19/2010
MGoPoints: 326

Doesn't matter. Every year they say that they are better than we are and every year they make excuses when they lose. We'll see on Saturday.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:52 PM | If I was a betting man (Score:1 Informative)
Promote RichRod
Promote RichRod's picture
Joined: 11/11/2008
MGoPoints: 997

I'd still be keeping my money on the sidelines here.

I feel like we should have a really solid homefield advantage and we will be plenty amped vs. ND being pretty demoralized.  At the same time, I just don't have a good feeling about this one.  I think ND will clean up its mistakes in a game like this and they clearly have a lot of offensive firepower.  The passing spread vs. our secondary is scary.  We also looking terrible vs. the run against Western.

ND shut down our non-Denard offense last year and let Denard try and do it himself (by design, which was dumb on ND's part).  Denard was more than happy to oblige.  No reason to think they can't do that again and force Denard to beat them by himself.  Will Borges/Hoke be willing to lean on Denard if this is the case?  I'm not so sure.

September 5th, 2011 at 6:00 PM | Denard is the QB. And the (Score:2 Normal)
bklein09
bklein09's picture
Joined: 08/24/2009
MGoPoints: 3023

Denard is the QB. And the most talented player on our offense. And the coaches most certainly saw what he did against ND last season (despite what they might say).

So I think Hoke and Borges will be able to lean on him planty if the game dictates that they do so.

I'm not saying that Denard will single-handedly beat ND again. But I think he could, and he will be given the opportunity if we are struggling. 

Those Who Stay...

September 5th, 2011 at 5:53 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
allintime23
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Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2382

I like it. The idiots on 97.1 are picking ND too. Had to bare with ten minutes of the spartan insider today on my way home.

All in for some manball.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:54 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2382

And what I mean by "I like it" us completely for motivation. I think we got thus one.

All in for some manball.

September 5th, 2011 at 5:55 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
allintime23
allintime23's picture
Joined: 09/21/2009
MGoPoints: 2382

And what I mean by thus is this.

All in for some manball.

September 5th, 2011 at 6:30 PM | posted from iPhone (Score:1)
HAIL_YES
HAIL_YES's picture
Joined: 04/18/2011
MGoPoints: 301

I agree with your hypothesis. It can only help Michigan to be the underdog in this game. So far I haven't seen any of the talking heads picking Michigan to win. Come Saturday night, Michigan will be hungry.

September 5th, 2011 at 6:36 PM | Can we make it 3 in a row? (Score:0 Overrated)
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