We shall see but I just don't think that Memphis game is a good matchup for MSU at all. I would love to see Gonzaga lose prior to OSU, but that is very unlikely to happen. I think OSU has a greater chance of losing to Iowa State/Notre Dame or New Mexico than Gonzaga does against Pitt/Wichita State or Wisconsin.
NCAA tourney week open thread
I don't like Memphis over MSU at all. My main memories of Memphis are from Maui last year, when a disciplined Michigan team ran circles around a talented, poorly coached Memphis team that didn't know how to deal with a team playing sound team defense. In that same mold, I MSU is a terrible matchup for Memphis, especially in Auburn Hills.
Just read article at umhoops.com and it touched on a great point: Sparty fans are all going to root for SDSU instead of Michigan. I hate to play into it, but that's a classic little brother move and its definitely going to happen. Sparty gonna Spart, I guess.
There are countless instances where Sparty seems to hate Michigan more than they like themselves (and the B1G, I suppose).
Everybody keeps saying that all the MSU fans will stick around at the Palace just to root against us, but why don't we see if they do before jumping to conclusions. Their game is at 12:15, and should be over by like 2. I seriously doubt a lot of State fans are going to wait 5 hours just to boo Michigan, when they could sell Session 2 tickets for probably quite a bit of money
Second, let's not try to pretend that everybody here isn't going to be rooting for Valpo either
you drastically underestimate the lengths that State fans will go to to see/cause pain inflicted upon Michigan.
Going back through the outcomes analysis I posted last night and extended it some, and using the assumption that Michigan will survive its first two games, the results do get intriguing.
The most likely outcome for the Round Of 32 for Michigan (at 35.786% likelihood) is a matchup against VCU, with the accompanying matchup being Kansas and North Carolina. Kansas has an estimated 96% probability to beat WKU, whereas the UNC / Villanova game is significantly more intriguing - 61% for North Carolina.
In an isolated simulation against VCU, we would have a 62% estimateed win probability, and Kansas would have 72% against UNC versus 78% against Villanova. So, assuming we get past VCU at this level, the probabilities of us meeting Kansas by either avenue they would need to take sit at better than 40% in that round in isolation. The combined likelihood of Michigan / Kansas via VCU and North Carolina respectively would be estimated at 15.98%, which given the number of possible other combinations, isn't really so bad.
Also, I cleared my meetings for Thursday and Friday, terming it "conflict with previously scheduled event".
Bilas has VCU in his final four.
Wow...that seems like a bit of a stretch.
In any individual bracket the most likely single team to make it out is going to be a 1, 2, or 3 seed almost always. But if people say that on TV no one will watch.
Sports has Nate Walters listed as their Number 1 player to watch in the entire tournament! I swear people love to hate Michigan They find where we are in the bracket and just hope like hell that somebody does something to make life miserable for Michigan. Either that, or this is like the worst draw ever and I certainly didn't think that when I first saw it. Especially when St. Louis won rather easily against VCU yesterday.
anyone...anywhere...pick Michigan to even get past VCU...this makes me happy. Usually when the entirety of the media goes one way on something, it ends up blowing up in their faces
FWIW, Dick Vitale has UM in his Final Four (along with OSU, IU, and Louisville). Whether that is good or bad I do not know.
Agree with that notion but I have to say most of those buttholes were picking Ohio to upset us last year...and yea.
I've watched this South Dakota St. team play a couple times this year. They're a decent team that will probably play well even though they're from the Summit League. That said, I don't think they have enough fire, power, or firepower to compete with the likes of Michigan. The only chance I think they have is to get hot from behind the arc, triple the hot that Wisconsin caught the other day, and pray that we come out flat and unmotivated. I can't see this really happening though as I don't think we need to defend much else other than Wolters and some three-point shooting. Sure, he'll get points by driving and they'll get a few points in the paint, we're not giants ourselves, but overall talent and a half-motivated Michigan team should be able to shut these guys down enough that we'll outscore them (via the aforementioned talent).
VCU is likely the next test, however, everyone seems to think Akron has no chance in hell, and I don't buy that. It may be likely that we could play VCU but it's sure as hell not guaranteed. Akron is a bit turnover prone, obviously playing to VCU's style, but Akron can also get their own rebounds, of which VCU themselves give up quite a bit, and could be a factor in this game.
Anywho, I'm personally not sure what to think about this Tourney this year. I can see about 12-13 teams make a Final Four run and picking 4 is hard (duh). I like New Mexico and people thinking OSU has a clear shot to the Final Four should rethink that. New Mexico can play ball and they have some players who create some issues for many teams. I'm curious to see how well Miami really can do and I think the same about North Carolina. I'd written them off long ago before they started winning games. They had a tough outing against Duke but they made the ACC Championship game, falling short to Miami, and got back to winning. Curious if they've the talent and comradarie to win some more games (their small lineup can be pretty good).
If we come out flat and unmotivated after beign bounced by NTO in the first round in a very similar situation last year, then we are really dumb.
I don't follow MBB as much, so I don't know who these guys are, but it looks like an annual "Giant Killers" blog, based on advanced metrics. ESPN Insider:
Michigan does not appear on the list of 10 early upsets. Interesting teams that do:
- (1) No. 11 Minny over No. 6 UCLA. Upset chance is 74%
- (4) No. 13 Boise State or LaSalle over No. 4 Kansas St. They say KSU one of the most overrated teams all season. Upset chance is 35%
- (5) No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Oklahoma State. They say Oregon was pimped, seeded three slots too low. Upset chance 31%
- (7) No. 12 Akron Zips over No. 5 VCU. Upset chance 29%. "VCU is now a trendy pick, but the Rams need to be careful: their high-pressure, outside-shooting game profiles better for Killers than Giants, and Akron's offensive rebounding can keep them in games."
- (9) No. 12 Ole Miss over No. 5 Wisconsin. Upset chance 23%. "These teams are separated by just nine spots in the BPI rankings, but Wisconsin's low turnovers and 3-point defense help ward off would-be Giant Killers."
Pretty low likelihood of these upsets by their own metrics, except Minnesota.
Gophers are 3 point favorites. Not an upset if they win.
Higher seed over a lower seed is an upset.
Seeding is overrated. If Duke plays Gonzaga in the Final Four and wins is that an upset? No. Duke is better team. UCLA's best player is out. Would hardly be am upset if they lose.
Opinion. Question. Opinionated answer to question. Opinion. Fact. Opinion.
The definition of an upset is when the team that is expected to win loses. In the context of a seeded tournament, the lower seeded teams are expected to win, which is why they are seeded that way.
And to answer your question...the only question about Gonzaga is their lack of wins against good teams. If they make the Final 4, I would think a lot of people would be picking them over Duke. Kenpom has Gonzaga over Duke. As for gambling, Gonzaga is listed at 10/1 while Duke is 12/1, so I'd imagine that, even in with your method of picking a favorite, Gonzaga would be the favorite.
you say 'The definition of an upset is when the team that is expected to win loses.'
so If Minnesota is a 3 point favorite, they would be the team that is expected to win. Therefore not an upset.
and from Vegasinsider:
Odds to Win 2013 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament (4/8/13)
hmmm....Duke with better odds than Zaga. So, you are wrong on both accounts.
You completely missed the point. Odds change from site to site and day to day. I picked odds from one site and you picked odds from another site, so which site is right? Lines aren't meant to predict games; they are meant to get equal betting on both sides. Minnesota started out at -3.5 and are now at -3, which means more people were picking UCLA in what is basically a pickem. 53% of the brackets on ESPN have UCLA winning the game. On CBS Sports, UCLA is the popular pick in brackets as well.
If you want to argue about 1/2 or 8/9 games, fine, whatever, because there is some uncertainty that goes into seeding, but either way, those aren't really going to be upsets because of how close they are. However, when it comes to a 6/11 game, you're not going to convince anyone that the 11-seed winning isn't an upset.
you'll never convince me or anyone that a 3 point favorite winning is an upset. Team A is -3 vs. Team B. Team A wins, is that an upset? An arbitrary number in front of a teams name(seed or poll ranking) does not determine if its an upset or not
"Lines aren't meant to predict games; they are meant to get equal betting on both sides."--that is absurd. Of course it is to get equal betting on both sides. But there is a reason Minnesota is -3 and not UCLA. The team Vegas/Offshore expects to win is the favorite.
And you make it seem like I am saying every 11 seed winning is not an upset, this is a fluke game because of an injury to UCLA.
I don't do a bracket because I'd rather root for B1G teams and underdogs and root against ACC....Kansas over Lville in final....OSU & Miami other final 4 teams.....fraudulant high seeds:IU,Duke,Gonz,Fla,K St.....1st round upsets:Col over Illinois (take the points when they play Miami),Oreg over Ok St....St.L in sweet 16...MSU will beat Duke if both teams win 1st 2 games......Sparty fans won't stay late on thurs to root against us BUT if Mich/Sparty win thurs we will play immediately after Sparty game saturday and little bro will show the nation what douches they are by loudly rooting for VCU/Akron.....other sure bets:I won't leave my house for 4 days 1st week,I will be grateful daily that I'm single & retired,I will become tired of the Enterprise rental car and Masters commercials by saturday,Digger Phelps & Dicky V will have less than 3 worthwhile insights combined during tourney,on Monday everyone will hear from at least 1 person who has 'an almost perfect bracket' but that same person won't be able to produce said bracket,a 'knows nothing about sports' chick will win a bracket,at some point I will wonder where Rumeal Robinson is now and smile.GO BLUE
Didn't know that.I smile because he made 2 clutch FTs that won it all for Mich and my nephew was born at that precise moment on April 3,1989