I went through and did a rough bracket without paying much attention until the end. I ended up with 3 B1G teams in the final 4. So, I decided to try to do things how I did them last year and hope for less excitement in the round of 32 this year. This is the post that inspired that:
NCAA tourney week open thread
went through a rough draft and came up with three big ten teams (and florida...). big ten is good - but not that good.
unfortunately, i think both ohio and indiana are as close to locks as you can get - but im not sure about the other two teams.
I kind of feel the same way, however, I don't ever think a team is a lock. OSU has an easy bracket, but my number crunching has convinced me OSU will lose somewhere before the Final 4. At the same time, my nubmer crunching shows Indiana losing before the Final 4, but I'm pushing them through.
I am nervous for the week. The last two years, my coin flip bracket has correctly predicted the round and opponent that Michigan has bowed out to. This year in mine, South Dakota St made it to the Finals. Very nervous.
As for the actual tournament, I think alot of the Big Ten teams got good draws. MSU should cakewalk to the Sweet 16 IMO and I don't think Duke or Louisville are invincible, though it's a tough region. OSU should make the Final Four. Wisconsin could get to the Elite 8 or further. Indiana shouldn't have a tough time until the regionals, and I wouldn't be surprised if we made a run. Even Illinois and Minnesota wouldn't shock me if they pulled some upsets.
that a lot of the paranoia right now is due to getting dropped to the 4 spot. No question that amounted to a vote of no-confidence from the committee. If anything, the loss last year can show the team and the fanbase how fragile things are this time of year and that nothing can be taken for granted.
people are making a little too much out of the way Michigan played in the Big Ten Tournament. Aside from the Penn State loss, Michigan closed by beating Illinois, a 7 seed, Staee, a 3 seed, won a tough road game, lost a heartbreaker to Indiana, avenged Penn State by 20, and lost a tough one to Wisky, a 5 seed that almost won the entire tournament. There are certainly concerns, but this team still has a lot to like.
I can talk myself into Michigan making a long tourney run....
We looked improved against Indiana and took care of business against Penn State. We got caught by the Bo Ryan slow-down machine, but that's a team seemingly designed to defeat Belein's 3-intensive strategy (and at least we haven't lost 12 straight to them). And we're now actually going to see fouls called on players impeding our ball-handlers, so Burke and Hardaway should be that much more efficient.
Kenpom says we match up well against SD St. VCU struggles against teams that don't turn the ball over, and we don't. Kansas has proven that their shooting will abandon them and that they can lose to literally anyone with their loss to TCU (and we'd be playing them in a cavernous dome, making shooting that much more difficult). I'm not convinced Florida's going to make it past their first close game, as they haven't won one all year. G'town is good but we have more weapons. No one else on that side of the bracket scares me.
That said, I can also talk myself into a rain of 3's against SDSt and an early exit. Right now, I'm predicting Sweet 16, which is a step but still depressing.
I think we are turning it around and are on an up swing. Plus, I think they are motivated to have a good tournament performance and remember what happened last year. Our draw looks very doable, a;so.
No question that amounted to a vote of no-confidence from the committee.
Not necessarily. The committee will often give a team a lower-than-expected seed but a better location/draw, especially when it wants to spread out teams from one conference.
So youre nervous cause a 50-50 chance says we lose?? Alright then...
I have Sparty losing to Valpo. If they happen to win that, I have them losing to Memphis. If not then, then the next round, or the next, and finally, I have them losing to us in the Finals.
So you keep advancing them even though you have them losing? Interesting strategy.
and knows all the other outcomes so that he only needs focus on State.
Heads: Michigan wins
Tails: South Dakota State loses
montana to the sweet 16. syracuse is garbage, cal upsets unlv, montana rollllllllllls
I've got a meeting at the other company building in the afternoon, so I'm going to take the afternoon off and watch the tourney.
Re: the uniforms. If we wear the Cazzie throwback whites I will be pleased.
I logged in simply to upvote this.
My wife thinks the all yellow unis make them look like "walking bananas".
don't play great defense. They force a lot of turnovers. They are not the same thing. A pressing aggressive can be the easiest to exploit. I would not get on the bandwagon just yet.
has VCU 46th in defense. As ijohnb says, that's not great.
but I basically read that when VCU loses the turnover battle, they lose. Almost guaranteed. With Trey Burke leading us most of the way, I think that's a battle we can win
Hey NCAA, it's time to end the disaster that is the first four. Nobody watches because it's usually mediocre at best mid majors.
I think they added the first 4 so that they could accomodate more conference champions without removing spots for teams on the bubble. What I heard is that they aren't going to accomodate the Big East split. Since they aren't going to accomodate all conference champions now, I would have to agree that removing the first round would be the best thing they could do for the tournament.
They actually created the first four because people us with pay to watch whatever televised garbage is tangentially related to college athletics.
UM -11, -750 moneyline. Seems high with the D we have been playing lately.
Also OT but purdue became the first B1G team ever to accept a CBI bid.
CBI madness, it's awesome babby!
College Basketball Invitational, held on campus venues.
"The CBI provides a meaningful opportunity for teams that are deserving of a postseason experience."
Take a trip back into the wayback machine, Michigan was projected a 1 seed for the 2010 CBI. Beilein turned down the invite however.
I had no idea teams turned the CBI or any postseason tournament down ever? Hopefully we will never see Michigan again in the days where it can't at least make the NIT.
I love March Madness! Rick Stanzi loves March Madness!
AMERICA LOVEZS MARCH MADNESS!!
It's heresy, I know, but I think VCU has a pretty nice draw to make it out of the south. Past that, Minny absolutely has the potential to be a giant killer and play much better than their 11 seed suggests. Would not be surprised if they make it out that region as long as they don't have to go through us.
They could, but they won't. Classic Minny.
is a quick out. That is one to stay away from.
I hate the whites too. They make me look very Magnus. I like the blues a lot better. Very slimming.
Louisville is actually really good, man. I know, obvs things are obvs, but seriously they have a top teir upper classman PG, a scoring machine SG (who can drive you crazy with his shoot shoot shoot shoot KOBE mentality) and they have what seems to be a large man creation machine. Every time they need a big Patino just creates one. That Harrel kid is a freshman and is a monster and wasn't even getting any play earlier this year. When he first came into a game I was all "WTF who is that massive human?"
Louisville bigs: Gorgi, Bahanan, Harrel, Vantreese and I think they have another who is actually pretty good too. They have the size and depth to run over MSU. I live in the Ville thus I have watched this team a ton. I wish they wouldn't do the stupid full court press but it's Patinos thing and it got him to where he is and he won't drop it, but whatever. If Russ Smith goes all KOBE or Siva shrinks in the moment (which he still does sometimes even as a SR) they could lose, otherwise they are my fav to win it all.
Again I know, obvs things are obvs.
Louisville cannot win it all, I have a perfectly valid explanation as to why they can't win it all, but I'm not going to take the time to post it. Instead I'm going to post this fun filled picture
For the position he's in.
Why he is happy hanging on that banana!
I don't know that obvious is always so obvious. Some have MSU coming out of that bracket. I think that's crazy. Beyond your in-depth examples of why Louisville is, like, really good (sigh...darn you Pitino's wife liking Kentucky), I think people are sleeping on Duke. In any other region I'd probably have them in the Final Four. They're back at full strength and looking fearsome lately. That bracket is just really tough.
Which makes my strategy vs. talent really go up against each other this year, because I like to go with who most plausbily get there to win (because if you have a better chance to lose early, your odds of winning it aren't great), but I can't really pick Ohio State over Louisville to win it even if the Buckeyes got the cake region. And Indiana winning 6 in a row doesn't really excite me either. So I guess it's Louisville, even though everyone will pick them and their region is brutal.
As soon as I saw how my post read I thought about the "EDIT:" but then I thought who is going to get offended if someone hates whites?
Uh, I prefer European Americans. Not whites.
What, just because I'm white you assume that I emigrated from the country of Europe? That's racist.
I hate white people as well. Equinsu ocha!!
The Dude, at it again. Y U so mad bro? Get over it.
for unprovoked, albeit obvious, Magnus attack. Get a life, Dudeness.
gets careless. I have watched them quite a bit too, not as much as you, but they always seemed to be the team playing right before Michigan so I saw quite a bit. They are extremely talented but until the Big East touney seldom played a full focused 40. I know they have the size to match up but I think they are undisciplined. I am not saying they are easy out by any stretch of the imagination, I know they are good but I think State is one of the teams in the tourney that can really give them fits.
but possibly the Final Four. I have Michigan losing to Georgetown in the Elite 8.
I think MSU will lose to Memphis in the second round (round of 32). Memphis has the bigs to battle Sparty down low and has the backcourt to give Appling & Harris trouble. I think that game will come down to Keith Appling vs. Joe Jackson, and I give Jackson the edge in that matchup.
I, too, have UM losing to G'town in the Elite 8, and I also have OSU losing to Gonzaga in the Elite 8. IU is the only Big Ten team I have in the Final Four, and I have them losing to G'town in the National Semifinal.
but I do think MSU plays tougher defense, has better inside play, and just bruises teams up.
I have OSU, Indiana almost always in the Final Four, with State about 1/4 times.
OSU won't lose to Gonzaga because the 'Zags won't make it that far.
We shall see but I just don't think that Memphis game is a good matchup for MSU at all. I would love to see Gonzaga lose prior to OSU, but that is very unlikely to happen. I think OSU has a greater chance of losing to Iowa State/Notre Dame or New Mexico than Gonzaga does against Pitt/Wichita State or Wisconsin.
I don't like Memphis over MSU at all. My main memories of Memphis are from Maui last year, when a disciplined Michigan team ran circles around a talented, poorly coached Memphis team that didn't know how to deal with a team playing sound team defense. In that same mold, I MSU is a terrible matchup for Memphis, especially in Auburn Hills.
Just read article at umhoops.com and it touched on a great point: Sparty fans are all going to root for SDSU instead of Michigan. I hate to play into it, but that's a classic little brother move and its definitely going to happen. Sparty gonna Spart, I guess.
There are countless instances where Sparty seems to hate Michigan more than they like themselves (and the B1G, I suppose).
Everybody keeps saying that all the MSU fans will stick around at the Palace just to root against us, but why don't we see if they do before jumping to conclusions. Their game is at 12:15, and should be over by like 2. I seriously doubt a lot of State fans are going to wait 5 hours just to boo Michigan, when they could sell Session 2 tickets for probably quite a bit of money
Second, let's not try to pretend that everybody here isn't going to be rooting for Valpo either
you drastically underestimate the lengths that State fans will go to to see/cause pain inflicted upon Michigan.
Going back through the outcomes analysis I posted last night and extended it some, and using the assumption that Michigan will survive its first two games, the results do get intriguing.
The most likely outcome for the Round Of 32 for Michigan (at 35.786% likelihood) is a matchup against VCU, with the accompanying matchup being Kansas and North Carolina. Kansas has an estimated 96% probability to beat WKU, whereas the UNC / Villanova game is significantly more intriguing - 61% for North Carolina.
In an isolated simulation against VCU, we would have a 62% estimateed win probability, and Kansas would have 72% against UNC versus 78% against Villanova. So, assuming we get past VCU at this level, the probabilities of us meeting Kansas by either avenue they would need to take sit at better than 40% in that round in isolation. The combined likelihood of Michigan / Kansas via VCU and North Carolina respectively would be estimated at 15.98%, which given the number of possible other combinations, isn't really so bad.
Also, I cleared my meetings for Thursday and Friday, terming it "conflict with previously scheduled event".
Bilas has VCU in his final four.
Wow...that seems like a bit of a stretch.
In any individual bracket the most likely single team to make it out is going to be a 1, 2, or 3 seed almost always. But if people say that on TV no one will watch.
Sports has Nate Walters listed as their Number 1 player to watch in the entire tournament! I swear people love to hate Michigan They find where we are in the bracket and just hope like hell that somebody does something to make life miserable for Michigan. Either that, or this is like the worst draw ever and I certainly didn't think that when I first saw it. Especially when St. Louis won rather easily against VCU yesterday.
anyone...anywhere...pick Michigan to even get past VCU...this makes me happy. Usually when the entirety of the media goes one way on something, it ends up blowing up in their faces
FWIW, Dick Vitale has UM in his Final Four (along with OSU, IU, and Louisville). Whether that is good or bad I do not know.
Agree with that notion but I have to say most of those buttholes were picking Ohio to upset us last year...and yea.
I've watched this South Dakota St. team play a couple times this year. They're a decent team that will probably play well even though they're from the Summit League. That said, I don't think they have enough fire, power, or firepower to compete with the likes of Michigan. The only chance I think they have is to get hot from behind the arc, triple the hot that Wisconsin caught the other day, and pray that we come out flat and unmotivated. I can't see this really happening though as I don't think we need to defend much else other than Wolters and some three-point shooting. Sure, he'll get points by driving and they'll get a few points in the paint, we're not giants ourselves, but overall talent and a half-motivated Michigan team should be able to shut these guys down enough that we'll outscore them (via the aforementioned talent).
VCU is likely the next test, however, everyone seems to think Akron has no chance in hell, and I don't buy that. It may be likely that we could play VCU but it's sure as hell not guaranteed. Akron is a bit turnover prone, obviously playing to VCU's style, but Akron can also get their own rebounds, of which VCU themselves give up quite a bit, and could be a factor in this game.
Anywho, I'm personally not sure what to think about this Tourney this year. I can see about 12-13 teams make a Final Four run and picking 4 is hard (duh). I like New Mexico and people thinking OSU has a clear shot to the Final Four should rethink that. New Mexico can play ball and they have some players who create some issues for many teams. I'm curious to see how well Miami really can do and I think the same about North Carolina. I'd written them off long ago before they started winning games. They had a tough outing against Duke but they made the ACC Championship game, falling short to Miami, and got back to winning. Curious if they've the talent and comradarie to win some more games (their small lineup can be pretty good).
If we come out flat and unmotivated after beign bounced by NTO in the first round in a very similar situation last year, then we are really dumb.
I don't follow MBB as much, so I don't know who these guys are, but it looks like an annual "Giant Killers" blog, based on advanced metrics. ESPN Insider:
Michigan does not appear on the list of 10 early upsets. Interesting teams that do:
- (1) No. 11 Minny over No. 6 UCLA. Upset chance is 74%
- (4) No. 13 Boise State or LaSalle over No. 4 Kansas St. They say KSU one of the most overrated teams all season. Upset chance is 35%
- (5) No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Oklahoma State. They say Oregon was pimped, seeded three slots too low. Upset chance 31%
- (7) No. 12 Akron Zips over No. 5 VCU. Upset chance 29%. "VCU is now a trendy pick, but the Rams need to be careful: their high-pressure, outside-shooting game profiles better for Killers than Giants, and Akron's offensive rebounding can keep them in games."
- (9) No. 12 Ole Miss over No. 5 Wisconsin. Upset chance 23%. "These teams are separated by just nine spots in the BPI rankings, but Wisconsin's low turnovers and 3-point defense help ward off would-be Giant Killers."
Pretty low likelihood of these upsets by their own metrics, except Minnesota.
Gophers are 3 point favorites. Not an upset if they win.
Higher seed over a lower seed is an upset.
Seeding is overrated. If Duke plays Gonzaga in the Final Four and wins is that an upset? No. Duke is better team. UCLA's best player is out. Would hardly be am upset if they lose.
Opinion. Question. Opinionated answer to question. Opinion. Fact. Opinion.
The definition of an upset is when the team that is expected to win loses. In the context of a seeded tournament, the lower seeded teams are expected to win, which is why they are seeded that way.
And to answer your question...the only question about Gonzaga is their lack of wins against good teams. If they make the Final 4, I would think a lot of people would be picking them over Duke. Kenpom has Gonzaga over Duke. As for gambling, Gonzaga is listed at 10/1 while Duke is 12/1, so I'd imagine that, even in with your method of picking a favorite, Gonzaga would be the favorite.
you say 'The definition of an upset is when the team that is expected to win loses.'
so If Minnesota is a 3 point favorite, they would be the team that is expected to win. Therefore not an upset.
and from Vegasinsider:
Odds to Win 2013 Mens NCAA Basketball Tournament (4/8/13)
hmmm....Duke with better odds than Zaga. So, you are wrong on both accounts.
You completely missed the point. Odds change from site to site and day to day. I picked odds from one site and you picked odds from another site, so which site is right? Lines aren't meant to predict games; they are meant to get equal betting on both sides. Minnesota started out at -3.5 and are now at -3, which means more people were picking UCLA in what is basically a pickem. 53% of the brackets on ESPN have UCLA winning the game. On CBS Sports, UCLA is the popular pick in brackets as well.
If you want to argue about 1/2 or 8/9 games, fine, whatever, because there is some uncertainty that goes into seeding, but either way, those aren't really going to be upsets because of how close they are. However, when it comes to a 6/11 game, you're not going to convince anyone that the 11-seed winning isn't an upset.
you'll never convince me or anyone that a 3 point favorite winning is an upset. Team A is -3 vs. Team B. Team A wins, is that an upset? An arbitrary number in front of a teams name(seed or poll ranking) does not determine if its an upset or not
"Lines aren't meant to predict games; they are meant to get equal betting on both sides."--that is absurd. Of course it is to get equal betting on both sides. But there is a reason Minnesota is -3 and not UCLA. The team Vegas/Offshore expects to win is the favorite.
And you make it seem like I am saying every 11 seed winning is not an upset, this is a fluke game because of an injury to UCLA.
I don't do a bracket because I'd rather root for B1G teams and underdogs and root against ACC....Kansas over Lville in final....OSU & Miami other final 4 teams.....fraudulant high seeds:IU,Duke,Gonz,Fla,K St.....1st round upsets:Col over Illinois (take the points when they play Miami),Oreg over Ok St....St.L in sweet 16...MSU will beat Duke if both teams win 1st 2 games......Sparty fans won't stay late on thurs to root against us BUT if Mich/Sparty win thurs we will play immediately after Sparty game saturday and little bro will show the nation what douches they are by loudly rooting for VCU/Akron.....other sure bets:I won't leave my house for 4 days 1st week,I will be grateful daily that I'm single & retired,I will become tired of the Enterprise rental car and Masters commercials by saturday,Digger Phelps & Dicky V will have less than 3 worthwhile insights combined during tourney,on Monday everyone will hear from at least 1 person who has 'an almost perfect bracket' but that same person won't be able to produce said bracket,a 'knows nothing about sports' chick will win a bracket,at some point I will wonder where Rumeal Robinson is now and smile.GO BLUE
Didn't know that.I smile because he made 2 clutch FTs that won it all for Mich and my nephew was born at that precise moment on April 3,1989