NBC Sports: Jim Harbaugh and Year 3 at Michigan

Submitted by LLG on

Towards the end:  "Harbaugh entering Year 3 as Michigan’s head coach will do so starting the year with a younger roster in need of experience. Ohio State is a better team. Playing at Penn State in a revenge game could be difficult. Playing Florida in the opener should be a challenge. Michigan may not really have a shot at winning the Big Ten in 2017, and most will give Harbaugh a pass for that. That’s fair, but the pressure for winning big in 2018 will be high."

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JonnyHintz

July 2nd, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^

Nah. I mean we might. This team is incredibly young. Current depth chart projections have: 13/22 offensive players on the two deep in their first or second year out of high school 16/22 defensive players on the two deep in their first or second year out of high school. If the starter isn't incredibly young, his backup is. So there's a chance this team could struggle. I see 8-4 as worst case personally, but the potential to struggle is there. There's talent, but it's unknown. We don't know what they really look like in competition for the most part. So the potential to struggle, with a few tough road tests, is definitely there. In reality we don't know how these guys will react when the balls are rolled out there on the field. All we have right now is blind faith that Harbaugh and the staff will have them whipped into shape.

B1G_Fan

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^

 regardless of the outcome this season Harbaugh is the man for the job at Michigan, to even question this is ridiculous. He is right at some point we have to beat OSU again, maybe someone should have told him about the meme "Until we start beating OSU and MSU" and saved him some time.

M Ascending

July 3rd, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^

God damnit. We beat OSU last year and the refs just handed it to them. Why does everyone treat that game as a loss -- especially in terms of even starting to question JH's coaching of the team.

Heywood_Jablome

July 3rd, 2017 at 12:38 PM ^

So a 50/50 call that could have gone either way and suddenly you're counting that as a win?  How about Speight doesn't hand them 14 points off turnovers?  Coaching was terrible in the 2nd half...that fact just gets glossed over.

We were the more talented and experienced team and should have won...that's on the coaches, not the refs.

PrimeChronic

July 3rd, 2017 at 10:37 PM ^

I have to disagree that we were the more talented team, even with homer glasses on. While it wasn't a night and day difference, it also wasn't a razor thin margin either. I'd say they were a solid A/arguable A+ and we were at BEST a B+, more realistically just on a pure talent evaluation a B or even B-.

We just outplayed them for the most part.

war-dawg69

July 3rd, 2017 at 3:51 PM ^

I can see why I got negged for the same thing. I just rewatched that game and there is one reason we lost that game. We really outplayed them. Our defense was good enough. Our o-line was good enough. Our special teams were good enough. Our coaching was good enough. Our QB play was flat out garbage. Wilton Speight flat out handed that game to OSU. His piss poor play is why Michigan lost that game. Period. We out classed them all over the field and Speight took the pressure off of them. Decent QB play in that game and we win by at least two scores. He flat out handed osu fourteen points with a pick six and fumble at the two. He missed pass after pass just like the Iowa game. Harbaughs teams should first and foremost have a stellar QB. Our three losses were all because of shit QB play. I watched all of them at least twice and it is painfully obvious he can't do shit against a decent defense. That game was not lost because of officiating, it was lost because of shotty QB play. I was a Speight fan until Iowa, but he flat out can't get it done. I am changing my prediction and say Peters will be the starting QB for the Michigan Wolverines. We need a guy who attacks defenses and is accurate. We either need a pro passer with a cannon or one who can run and put pressure on a defense. Speight is neither. Can he throw better than Barrett?. Hell ya he can, but he offers nothing else and does not convert enough first downs. If we had a better QB we would have easily won that osu game. You put clemsons QB on Michigan last year and they crush everyone including alabama. Without turnovers Speight may be good enough to win it all but just think what Michigan would be like with one of the best QB in college football. Michigan can win with a game manager who does not throw down field, but he must be accurate and cannot turn the ball over. I am sorry but Speight has hit his ceiling and if he starts all year we will once again lose games we should not.

StephenRKass

July 3rd, 2017 at 4:56 PM ^

Speight was injured against Iowa. O'Korn wasn't good enough, and apparently Peters wasn't ready. Speight's injury meant he could no longer throw downfield. Once OSU figured that out, they crowded the line, and Michigan's offense could do nothing. This also was the difference in the bowl game loss.

Other than that, I don't think our OL was good enough. I am glad that Kalis is gone. They will be getting better from here on out.

Regarding this year, I believe Speight starts. The difference is that if he does poorly, or is injured, Peters is ready to immediately step in and perform at a high level.

Maizen

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:19 PM ^

Writer is a Penn State alum who is doing nothing other than concern trolling and using Harbaugh's name to generate clicks in the middle of summer. 

Lame.

war-dawg69

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^

Thanks for the info. on this clown. I was going to say K. Macguire should title this "I hate Jim Harbaugh and Michigan". Michigan also runs a clean program compared to Bama and who knows with osu. Franklin has fifteen losses in his three years. To catch him Harbaugh has to lose ten games this year. All I know is all Michigans rivals want Harbaugh gone for some reason.

DonAZ

July 2nd, 2017 at 8:57 PM ^

Franklin has fifteen losses in his three years.

Yes, and Franklin has a problem on his hands if Penn State's stumbles and the success of last year starts looking like a fluke.  His seat is not "hot" ... but there is definitely pressure to show that 2016 is the "new normal" for Penn State.

In a similar way, Dantonio needs 8-4 to show his 3-9 2016 season was a fluke.

Harbaugh?  He needs to beat Ohio State this year or next. 

NittanyFan

July 3rd, 2017 at 12:08 PM ^

and unlikely to land in the middle (8-4, 9-3, or 10-2).

The reason I say that --- PSU's schedule has A LOT of games that are "a road game against a team they're better than on paper, but it's still a road game against a pretty fiesty team."  As we all know, these games are tricky.  Games at Iowa, NW, MSU and UMD fall in this category.

A lot of college football is momentum and chemistry of the team.  PSU should go 3-0 w/ the OOC home games.  The September 23 game at Iowa is the hinge point.  

Win that one and the team gets highly confident and winning out (except for Ohio State) is not unrealistic.  That gets PSU to 11-1.

Lose to Iowa and now there's doubt.  Things can then snowball - and all of a sudden PSU could be 4-4 after OSU and on their way to 7-5.

I'm not sure "7-5 or 11-1 but not in-between" is an answer, but that's what I'm going with.  :-)

SpikeFan2016

July 3rd, 2017 at 1:19 AM ^

I sure hope so. If we make it next year, it will most certainly be deserved.

Road games in Columbus, South Bend and East Lansing, plus playing host to both Wisconsin and Nebraska from the west (in addition to Penn State). 

All in all though, I have a really hard time believing 2018 has "THE BEST CHANCE EVER" written all over it. In 2018 we have to play in Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes won't be nearly as young as they were in 2016, and we couldn't get it done then. If we beat them this year, I will feel pretty confident. But if we lose again at home, I have little hope Harbaugh would notch his first win in Columbus in 2018. 

 

2018 is the hardest schedule Jim Harbaugh will face in his first 5 years at Michigan, by a fairly significant margin, I'd say.

That said, 2019 is definitely our easiest schedule in Harbaugh's first 5 years.

Bring OSU and MSU back to Ann Arbor, trade out Nebraska for Illinois. And, unlike 2015/2017, we don't have any nonconference games away from home against Power 5 opponents (Notre Dame at home, instead of @Utah or neutral site vs. Florida).  

yossarians tree

July 3rd, 2017 at 11:16 AM ^

I disagree that the only definition of a good year is when you win it all. Chance plays a part in it. Every season there are one or two plays that decide the outcome of a handful of games. The point is to have a great program with a consistent philosophy, coaching stability, great recruiting, and with an emphasis on high character and accountability from the players. We have that now, for the first time since the height of the Lloyd Carr days. Still, we are not going to win the B1G every year, but we will win our share and we will always be right in the mix. I could not be happier than I am now and we have not yet won anything with Harbaugh.

SpikeFan2016

July 3rd, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^

You "could not be happier than you are now"? 

 

Seriously?

 

If we had beaten Iowa and Ohio State like we should've and won the Big Ten, you're telling me that you wouldn't be happier now?

 

Got it. 

Stringer Bell

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:22 PM ^

The fact that that guy posted his own tweet, in which he compared Harbaugh's 3rd year at Stanford to Saban's and Meyer's 3rd years at Bama and OSU tells me all I need to know about this author and this article.  Yes, taking over a 1-11 Stanford team is comparable to taking over two of the most successful programs in CFB history.

HailToA2

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:30 PM ^

2018 is shaping up to really be the first "Harbaugh Era Major Expectation Test" (I'm bad at making titles). But wouldn't it be just great if they went and shocked the world this season with the most dominating team in college football?

huntmich

July 2nd, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^

I honestly don't think it should be that great of a surprise if we do make noise this year. Other elite coaches have proven that youth problems can be overcome by talent and elite coaching, and we have both. We get sparty and osu at home. And the rest of the B1G east is not terribly hot at the moment (I still don't have faith in Penn State). If we catch a couple of the breaks that have eluded us in the past two years, this team has the talent to make a run.

Eye of the Tiger

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:32 PM ^

Only idiots will whine about us not beating OSU this year with a bunch of sophomore and freshman first-time starters. 

This is the year we pay for the collapse of Hoke's 2013 OL class, the small size of the 2014 class and the coaching change class in 2015. We'll still be good. But this is the rebuilding year. 

 

 

MichiganMan14

July 2nd, 2017 at 8:28 PM ^

We need to win. It's year 3. No goddamn excuses. We have great players. We choked the Ohio game last year. Harbaugh is 1-3 in our red letter games and it needs to be turned around to match the hype and expectations. That's just the way the country is going to see it. It's time to win. This is NOT a rebuilding year. That is garbage excuse loser talk. Ohio state never throws up the white flag with this rebuilding talk. Neither are we. Those kids are preparing to win the league and represent the B1G in Atlanta. Anything less is completely unacceptable. Stop blaming Hoke for this. It's year 3.

Eye of the Tiger

July 2nd, 2017 at 11:47 PM ^

I mean, it's possible. I'd even say we have a significantly better chance of beating them this year than PSU did last year. We are at home, we have a lot of talent on our squad and upsets do happen. 

But if you are *expecting* that win, that's just...not realistic. We don't have the experience or depth to *expect* that win. Not this year. 

The fact is, we are still playing catchup to them, and this is the final year in which we will have to deal with the aftereffects of the last regime. I mean, the only guy we have on OL from the one-heralded 2013 class is Kugler, and he'll be a first-time starter. We are replacing our entire starting secondary and msot of our WR corps with young guys and have to rely on true freshman as backups to our DL. Some of those guys are bound to be good; others will be works in progress. That's just how it works. 

Then consider the fact that OSU are going to trot out as much talent as we are, but with a lot more experience and depth. And depth matters...a lot. Imagine if, say, Mone gets injured this year as well--can we deal with that as well as OSU could deal with in injury to, say, Nick Bosa?

Again, we *can* beat them, but it's just not realistic to *expect* us to. I'd put our chances of winning at 40% based on what we know now. 

war-dawg69

July 3rd, 2017 at 9:45 AM ^

Lets see if Mone gets injured we replace him with Dwumfour or Solomon. Not bad. I remember three years ago everyone flat out panicked about our receiving corps because we had no experienced wide outs. Those guys were Darboh and Chesson. Everyone starting on our defense has playing experience and some are upgrades. Listen to coach Brown talk about his guys. They are going to be lights out in my opinion. The offense shoould be fine also with plenty of playing experience. I don't like the built in excuses people are making and I am sure the team does'nt either. This team has more talent then last year and I feel will have a better year if we get consistently good o-line play and what our QB does. I actually expect Speight to have a monster year and so goes this team. This team is going to surprise a lot of people, but not me, I expect them to win and the big ten champion will be decided when osu comes to AA.

Eye of the Tiger

July 3rd, 2017 at 6:52 PM ^

So maybe that isn't the best point of comparison?

Otherwise, sure--I agree when it comes to talent. The thing is, not everyone develops at the same pace. Some untested guys will be great right off the bat; others will need time to reach their potential. 

I mean, do you remember Mario Ojemudia as a freshman? Dymonte Thomas? Channing Stribling? These guys ended up good but needed time to get there. 

Year of Revenge II

July 3rd, 2017 at 1:51 AM ^

I agree, and I think these players are going to come through. If we can get by Florida, and I think we will, we are going to be a very very dangerous team. The hype will build. If then we can beat Wisconsin, it will be through the roof.

fksljj

July 2nd, 2017 at 6:33 PM ^

I'm on record as saying we'll have 3-4 losses. We lost too much talent and not to start a shitstorm but I've already let it be known my thoughts about Wilton Speight. 2018 looks to be a manageable year with a much more experienced roster, although we start the season @ ND and end @ o$u. But you know what they say. Good teams find a way to win on the road.

s1105615

July 2nd, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^

1. Neutral site with Florida, UM is not favored by more than what, 3 points? Might as well be a toss up game that could turn on a single play.

2. On the road at night against Penn State in a White Out Game. Even Ohio State hasn't won one of those in a few tries. This game also has trouble written all over it.

3. On the road in November against the B1G West favorite Wisconsin. When was the last time UM won a game in Madison? I've been watching since 1996 and I honestly don't recall a single win in Madison since then.

4. Ohio State. They are more experienced and know how to win, especially against UM. I'll believe UM has more than a coin flip's chance in this game when they are up by 17 with 2 mins to play and the ball and not a moment before.

5. Any other game on the schedule. This is a team of a bunch of 17-24 year olds last I checked. The Iowa and Indiana games from last season should have definitively proven to anyone paying attention that it doesn't take much for a less talented squad to take advantage of a better team if the stars align.

All that to say l, I think 8-4 is the floor, but yeah UM could easily lose 4 games this season. I also think 12-0 is possible, but I would bet heavily against it (and willing pay the price for losing). Go Blue

SpikeFan2016

July 3rd, 2017 at 12:57 AM ^

Well, since you did ask....

 

Since you started watching Michigan football in 1996, we have a .500 record in Camp Randall Stadium in Madison at 3-3. We defeated the Badgers on their home field in 1997, 1999 and 2001. We lost to them in 2005, 2007 and 2009. 

 

Our current hiatus from visiting Camp Randall (8 years) is currently the longest streak a Big Ten member has gone without visiting another. 

fksljj

July 3rd, 2017 at 12:29 AM ^

Florida. This is a toss up for me. I know their offense sucks but they are bringing in a QB that Michigan typically struggles with. Before the transfer I had this down as a win, now I'm not so sure. I know Michigan is 3-0 all-time against Florida but those wins from the past don't mean anything in regards to the present.

 

@ Wisky. Madison is a tough place to win. I have this down as a toss up as well.

@ Penn State. White out night game. We've won in this situation before, but with a much more veteran team than what we have this year. Mark it down as a loss.

o$u. I shouldn't have to explain to anybody here that we've lost 13 of the last 14. Until I see a victory against a coach that isn't an interim, I will give this game to o$u every single time. As far as I'm concerned this is an automatic loss. I've seen far too many posts saying "you're crazy if you think we're losing again!" Ask yourself this. How many times have you said that in the last 14 years? Yeah...

 

Also, Air Force is bringing in a good team. I think we'll win, but expect a nail biter.

 

As far as your claim about the talent difference goes, that doesn't mean much. Any given Saturday. Iowa was a garbage ass team last year (no offense, Iowa fans) and look how that turned out for us. You can't blame the officiating on that one. They clearly outplayed us that night.

1VaBlue1

July 3rd, 2017 at 7:46 AM ^

So, according to you, Michigan is going to lose to OSU for the rest of eternity.  "Automatic loss" and all, right?  Despite that we know "the past don't mean anything in regards to the present", correct?

And you think that a guy that couldn't play his way into a starting spot (or even regular playing time) on a 4-8 team is going to make Florida an offensive juggernaut because Michigan "typically" struggles with mobile QB's?  Despite, you know, that Don Brown's defense is specifically designed to stop mobile QB's and is proven pretty good at doing so...  (Although we do know that "the past don't mean anything in regards to the present".)

You already have PSU as a loss, why?  Because it's a road game?  Because they've won a couple of White Out games against Rich Rod and Hoke?  But I thought "the past don't mean anything in regards to the present"?

It is possible all of those games are losses, but you already have them lost before even seeing how any of the teams involved will look in Fall camp!  Let alone on the field in a real game!!  I sure am glad you are no relation to me, the constant pessimisim would drive me nuts!

Soulfire21

July 3rd, 2017 at 8:47 AM ^

Michigan is going to lose to OSU for the rest of eternity. "Automatic loss" and all, right?
Until we can beat an OSU team that doesn't end up 6-6 I'm pretty much assuming we lose to them every year, too, because we do. It sucks but that's the reality currently.

fksljj

July 4th, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^

I'm not saying we'll lose to o$u forever, but until I see a victory, the smart money is on o$u. You can't sit here and tell me with a straight face that you're confident Michigan will win the game. Close doesn't count unless you're playing horseshoes. Speaking of horsehoes, the gap is closing. They played really well in that piece of shit stadium. Alas, a loss is a loss. Doesn't matter if it's a blowout like 2 years ago or a double OT loss like last year. It sucks either way. I kind of compare it to when the lions lost some 25 straight @ green bay. I had it down as an automatic loss until I saw otherwise. When it finally happened I was in shock. I actually kind of look at these guys who say "this is the year! I just know it!" with pity. I don't know if they truly believe this is really the year (like they did the year before, and the year before, and the...) or if they're just delusional homers.