NBC Sports Early Look at 2012 - Michigan #5

Submitted by Tangled up in BLUE on
MSNBC has a post by John Taylor looking ahead at 2012. Michigan comes in at #5 and Denard is his #4 Heisman candidate. Bama is #2, Montee Ball is #2 Heisman candidate, Ohio is a team to watch, and Wisconsin is a team on the decline.

I can't wait until September 1! It's a good thing we have a great basketball team, signing day, and a (hopefully) resurgent hockey team to keep us busy for a few months.

http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/01/10/2012-a-look-ahead/r…

James Burrill Angell

January 10th, 2012 at 10:49 AM ^

The thought of playing Alabama has been making me cringe all year. The one thing I have to hang my hat on is a quick review of their depth chart. They lose (based on depth chart on their Rivals site:

OFFENSE

Their center, both starting receivers (Hanks and Maze), a tight end because they're seniors plus you have to believe Trent Richardson is gone. (6 returning starters).

DEFENSE

The Nose Tackle, two out of four linebackers, a safety and a corner are all seniors plus there is a realistic possibility of junior LB Donta Hightower and junior cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick leaving early (thats 5 senior starters plus another two possible juniors). They also lose some depth as the guys listed at second string behind two of the seniors and both Hightower and Kirkpatrick are seniors too.

 

Getting them in the first game of the year with a ton of new starters may be a break for us. May many of their juniors wake up this morning and realize that college doesn't get any better than this and move on to greener pastures. 

Joined: 08/12/2009

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IronDMK

January 10th, 2012 at 1:24 PM ^

"... and the Michigan Wolverines have just stunned the defending national champions 17-9."  Yup, they kicked 3 field goals and no touchdowns.

Rankings for next year are almost completely based on how the current year's team finished so don't get your panties bunched up.  If Michigan starts the year at 25 or 5 it really won't matter.  I'm going to yell and cheer during that game just as much regardless of ranking.

In week 1 just about anything can happen.  We've been on the good side of this and we've been on the bad side.  Instead of being a pessimistic brat about the game (just so you can say, "I told you so!" if bama wins) wouldn't it make more sense to be optimistic about the game and thoroughly enjoy the BIG WIN?!

And I sincerely doubt that the coaching staff is "afraid" of Alabama regardless of who is playing on their team.  It's not going to change the way Michigan coaches prepare their team.

I have no doubts that Michigan is going to make us proud and pull out a thrilling victory.  In the meantime I'm going to continue to enjoy the season that JUST FINISHED and not worry about next year until sometime after the spring game.  Go Blue!

Joined: 07/28/2010

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ccdevi

January 10th, 2012 at 12:01 PM ^

you would think, but I believe he announced a week or so ago that he was coming back.

 

Regardless, I think Kirkpatrick and Hightower will go and maybe 1 more from their D,  could be their entire secondary, 3 of 4 backers and their best DL as well as their top DL backup.  They have talent to replace but it will never be easier than getting them in the first game of the year next year.

Joined: 08/08/2010

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Bodogblog

January 10th, 2012 at 11:22 AM ^

nobody's bringing everybody back.  We lose great seniors and great leadership.  Will be difficult to replace the production of Molk, Martin, and RVB. 

But QB is the biggest hurdle in football today, and we have one of the best in the country.  I personally buy into the "2nd year in the system" hype for Denard.  Second year in the system for the Defense as well.

Joined: 06/08/2010

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Tater

January 10th, 2012 at 10:09 AM ^

I always like it when writers use "myriad" as an adjective instead of using it as a noun.  I also like it when they agree somewhat with things I have been saying all season:

1.  The "which Urban Meyer is Ohio getting" question.

2.  BSU's window might be coming to an end becuase they aren't deep enough to sustain excellence.

3. Wiscy delayed the inevitable by hiring Russell Wilson last season, but also slowed the development of a QB from within the program.

4.  USC isn't really going to pay much for their violations.  They can whine all they want, but they still have a team that can win it all next year.  I am guessing their "personnel aquisition program" is still in full swing.

As for MIchigan's #5 "ranking," it could happen, but the Bama game is going to mean a lot.  Here's a scenario I would love to see played out next season:

Michigan loses the first game to Bama, runs the table the rest of the way, beating Bama in a rematch.  Bama fans conveniently forget that Michigan is a conference champion and use the same rematch arguments that LSU fans used against them, arguing one side with as much conviction as they did the other the year before.

The end of the scenario: posters like me conveniently forget that it is a mythical national championship and loudly proclaim Michigan as the National Champions.

Joined: 08/13/2008

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oriental andrew

January 10th, 2012 at 10:32 AM ^

Interesting breakdown of their 2011 roster (excludes practice squad, indicated by SQ on the roster under EXP).

FR / RS FR: 30, 3 = 33

SO / RS SO: 5, 10 = 15

JR / RS JR: 10, 12 = 22

SR / RS SR: 4, 11 = 15

In 2 years, their senior class will be TINY.  You can assume there will be at least a LITTLE attrition (e.g., guys like Robert Woods and Dillon Baxter going pro; don't know enough about their roster to say who else would leave early).  They'll end up with a pretty big junior class, though, and their current recruiting class (which will be sophs in 2013) is currently only at 12.  I'm guessing they'll have another 4-6 spots open and that several true frosh this season will RS.  Either way, they should stabilize after 2013. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

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WolvinLA2

January 10th, 2012 at 11:25 AM ^

They're actually in worse shape than you suggest. Since that roster was updated, Dillon Baxter, Amir Carlisle and Kyle Prater are off the team, and two juniors left early for the NFL - Nick Perry and Matt Kalil. Although that really doesn't hurt them for 2012 with Barkley and a lot of other starters coming back, their depth in 2013-15 when the scholarship restrictions will be in full effect will be terrible.

Joined: 11/13/2009

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Frank Drebin

January 10th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

I see the point you are making, but the Dillon Baxter comment threw me off. He will be lucky to play for USC again, yet alone make an early jump to the pros. This kid seems to be a victim of the overhyped, entitled recruit and what can happen if they aren't given every demand. I just think SC will go a different direction than Baxter, unless he can change his attitude.

Joined: 07/01/2008

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tjl7386

January 10th, 2012 at 10:10 AM ^

Top 10 is about right, there are still a few schools ahead of us in terms of talent and experience to be in the top 5 IMO. After the past few years I will happily take a top 10 pre-season ranking.

Joined: 12/29/2010

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BlueUPer

January 10th, 2012 at 10:24 AM ^

We return a ton of talented starters and our young guys need to step up!  Chip Kelly made a great point last night about what separates teams like Alabama and LSU -- their depth at so many positions.  

I think we are getting 'there.'   Not we are not there yet, but with much expected attrition at Alabama, we shouldn't be too far away in terms of talent.  

But this match-up so early scares me.  

Joined: 10/03/2010

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michgoblue

January 10th, 2012 at 11:42 AM ^

"Why not, Michigan at #5?"

1.  Our D-line is paper thin.  And we lose our best players from that already thin line.  This is a huge concern.

2.  Denard is still a question mark.  Will we see the Denard that slayed OSU this past year or the one that has had trouble moving the ball against every other decent to good defense that we have faced, including this past year's MSU, Iowa and VaTech teams?  Unfortunately, by this stage in his career, teams with decent defenses have a pretty good game plan to stop Denard - stack the box and force him to make longer throws.  Also, confusing coverages and more complex D schemes regularly cause Denard to make bad decisions.  On the other side of this, there is the whole "second year in the same system" thing and Denard's potential final leap.  If he makes one, then he first part of this point goes away, but I unfortunately think that he will continue to be turnover prone, and will continue to struggle when forced to use his arm. 

3.  Molk - we lose him.  Despite him winning national awards, I think that his positive impact on our rushing attack is not fully appreciated.  We may struggle on the ground without him.

4.  Depth - we still need some.  Yes, this new class coming in is a top class, but it is not realistic to expect these guys have have an immediate impact. 

5.  The eyeball test.  I think that we made massive strides under Hoke, Mattison and Borges.  But watching us play and then watching some of the better teams in the country, it is hard not to see that we just don't yet have the athletes to compete at a top 5 level.  We are going to get there in 2-3 years, but I don't see how anyone could have watched us against VaTech and ranked us top 5. 

Not trying to be a debbie downer, just my $.02.

Joined: 11/16/2009

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BigBlue62

January 10th, 2012 at 11:49 AM ^

that as being a debbie downer at all.  #5 is way too high for all the reasons you mentioned.  I don't think Denard is ever going to be a great passer. I hope I have to eat those words next year, but I just don't see his decision making capability as strong enough.  However, we did see flashed of brilliance in the Nebraska and Ohio game this year, so there is hope. 

Personally, I think we'll end up next year 15-20th due to the schedule.

Joined: 05/10/2011

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WolvinLA2

January 10th, 2012 at 1:42 PM ^

Is our DL paper thin? I could see a starting DL of Black, BWC, Q, and Roh. One is a returning starter, two were regular contributors this year. Q is the new guy, and it might not be him, but he's had good reports as well. Second unit is likely Brink, Pipkins, Ash, and Clark. What we know about this group is probably enough for them to be solid backups, and Rock, Wilkins, Heitzman, Strobel, Wormley and Godin will all fight for spots as well. That's not really paper thin. Somewhat inexperienced, albeit, but not that thin. Denard was up and down this year, but it was his first year learning a new system. That should be improved next year, and an extra off-season of coaching will help as well. The entire offense will benefit from knowing the playbook well. Molk is a big loss, but if you count Schofield, we'll have 4 guys returning on the OL which will mitigate that loss. I'm not saying losing Molk isn't a big deal, but every team losses some impact seniors. We need depth in some areas, but not everywhere. Our LB corps and DB group will be very deep, as will our RBs. If Stonum is around, our WR group should be adequately deep. The only area we're thin is at OL. They eyeball test is pretty subjective. We had some games (MSU, VT) where we didn't look great, but we had others (Nebraska, ILL) where we looked flawless and a handful more against solid bowl teams where we were good enough to win. We didn't look as good as Alabama did last night, but they were national champs. Basically, outside of a couple S.E.C. teams and SC, I don't know what teams are returning more talent than we are.

Joined: 11/13/2009

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Dion

January 10th, 2012 at 10:33 AM ^

as long as weat least finish close the Alabama game doesn't scare me. Oregon already proved this year needlessly difficult preseason games don't need to derail a season.

Joined: 01/06/2012

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burtcomma

January 10th, 2012 at 10:37 AM ^

The Alabama game to start 2012 is going to be a good measuring stick how we are coming along in terms of being nationally relevant every year in the future.  Note that Alabama has had the following recruiting class rankings after Saban's first year at the helm:

2008:  1st

2009:  1st

2010:  5th

2011:  1st

2012:  1st (as of now anyway)

I think our coaches view this game as a challenge, and given the Michigan fanbases whining about tomato cans in the past, this game should be viewed as an opportunity and not with dread.  If you want to compete with the best, you have to play them and learn how to beat them.  Saban might be able to outrecruit everyone else given his oversigning and SEC entrance standards and what not, but I do not think he will be able to outcoach our guys given the performance I saw this year.

Joined: 11/01/2009

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joeyb

January 10th, 2012 at 10:39 AM ^

We were talking about this in the car ride on the way home from NOLA. Going through the list of teams, I just don't know who you put ahead of us. If you do find a team, it's a team that is about equal to us. The 3 teams I said had to be ahead of us were LSU, Bama, and Oregon. Check. USC is in there now too (is Barkley coming back?). Stanford, OSU, and BSU all lose the QBs that got them ranked that high. That leaves Arkansas, KSU, Wisconsin, Baylor (if RG3 comes back), SoCar, VaTech, Oklahoma, etc. I don't know that any of those teams are necessarily better than us. I predicted somewhere in the 4-9 range, so I really don't see where the issue is.

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