What happens if they all return? Does Ann Arbor become sub HQ of the USA?
NBA draft stock update from tonight
We would have issues and have oversigned. Our mockery of indiana and alabama would be awkward.
If Austin Hatch is on scholarship next year, Michigan needs to lose one guy through attrition, whether by NBA draft or transfer.
If Hatch is not on scholarship, Michigan can return everyone and still be at 13.
They have 11 this year, so 2 open. They graduate Morgan, taking them down to 10. So Chatman, Doyle, Wilson makes 13.
Michigan whiffing on Booker and Blackmon opened up some scholarship wiggle room.
It all depends on Hatchs status. I hope he can play for Michigan.
Even if Hatch does need to be on scholarship, there is a solution. Horford could be given the fifth-year firm handshake. It would be unfortunate as hell, but there is no oversigning to be seen here.
this will never happen
Probably not, as it would require no one going pro, Hatch not being able to go on medical, and no attrition otherwise. I just meant to show that there is a legitimate way to get to 13.
But something would have to happen, as he said. We'd be over and I don't know what they can do about Hatch but if he's on a legit scholarship, pulling Horford might actually be the only solution.
Of course you don't want to do it, but if they went over and they couldn't give Hatch some medical scholarship thing, you'd have to pull Horford. Sounds absurd, but there is a possible scenario where that would be the only solution. We went over assuming that someone would leave.
Probably a pointless conversation though, as one of our guys will certainly go the NBA.
There is no way that Big Jon is pushed out the door. He absolutely will be needed next season.
look, we're all rooting for austin hatch. but i think he's going to be transferred to a medical scholarship regardless of whether there's a scholarship numbers crunch. if by some miracle hatch is actually able to play, i suspect that JB will be able figure it out some other way without sacrificing his values.
By all accounts, one of Mitch, Nik, and GRIII will be going pro. And if by some crazy circumstance they all return, Beilein will figure it out (I don't think Horford will be given the firm handshake, but I guess that could happen). But I have a hard time that there will be a scholarship issue with or without Hatch getting his medical.
We will be lucky if we just lose Stauskus. Keeping them all is a pipe dream.
In the unlikely event that they were all to return though...Asking Hatch to prep for a year might be in everyone's best interest(as opposed to medicalling him right away). My sister was in a coma for two weeks and from a physical and academic perspective...For her, every year was more time for the brain to remodel(for damaged functions to be taken over by undamaged regions). She had to re-learn everything(walking, talking, etc) but now 20+ years later she has a normal life/decent job/beautiful family.
Time to start the Walton one-and-done buzz then, I guess.
NBAdraft.net has Nik going early second and amazingly, GRIII not on the board. McGary isn't either.
at this point - he has the athleticism for the NBA but hasn't shown the ability to create his points. Last night certainly didn't help with several misses around the rim and Dakich repeatedly pointing them out to the world. GR3 also had several head-scratching defensive breakdowns; seems like he is getting lost in all phases of the game at times.
He could use his athleticism several different ways down on the block
he had two post ups last night and got off an easy shot both times. one was 2 inches two long and the other went down. i agree with you.
You need at least one go to skill to survive in the NBA. Shooting, rebounding, passing, defense, hustle, etc. Something that when all else fails, you can fall back on. GRIII has none of those. He's got the athleticism and build to make scouts drool, but that's about it.
not having credibility doesn't preclude someone from being right once in a while. In this case I agree with the guy (regardless how credible he is) 100%. GRIII should not be anywhere near the first round on anyone's draft boards.
I have watched the guy for two years and he hasn't improved one bit as yet. He actually is shooting 3's worse this year than he did last year, which was his only saving grace then. You can have all the athleticism in the world, but if you don't have some kind of game to go with it, you aren't going to be a first round draft pick (or shouldn't be anyway). He has a lot to prove before I would believe he can be any kind of decent player in the NBA.
What I am saying here isn't intended to bash the guy either. I like GRIII and cheer for him every game. I just get sick of the talk of him being a first round draft pick. Anyone with eyes can see he shouldn't be in that discussion.
draftexpress has GRIII going in the 2nd round, and given his game I don't see how it immensely improves unless he gets much better off the dribble, which seems unlikely. He's a great athlete with a moderately-evolved game. I suspect someone will take a chance on him, same with Mitch, just because there is potential there. But playing in college probably isn't going to help him too much unless the offense completely shifts.
and one I didn't really factor in when thinking about it. Staying in college only makes sense if you see it as being a platform to improve both your draft stock and overall game. In this offense you're right, unless there is a dramatic change (and why would there be) I don't see staying making much difference for GRIII. Thanks for offering your view. Made me change my thinking on that one.
Good. They should all come back. We would crush.
I don't know if we will have room for all of them given the size of the incoming class. I think Stauskas is going to regain his mojo in the coming weeks. He did fairly well tonight. Wisconsin and MSU are going to guard him in a similar way so he'll have a chance to improve and then he'll have a chance to improve over the rest of the regular season and the BTT. It's a fluid situation but I wouldn't be surprised to see McGary back next year simply because he hasn't had the chance to prove what he showed in the Tourney last year. I wonder if this chatter has had an effect on Stauskas. The drop off occured shortly after the dad comments and then him publicly apoligizing for that.
I think Nik has shown enough to be a late-first round pick regardless of how the rest of the season goes. He's not going to be drafted to be a superstar or an A+ athlete. At 25-30, you can't do much better than a sniper with some ball skills and passing ability unless you take a boom/bust guy. He's a safe pick to be a decent impact guy. That said, he has plenty he could do to improve his stock. More time in the weight room, improving defensive form and effort might help him. He's in a similar position to Burke as a a freshman right now. Trey obviously managed to raise his stock. I think Nik might have a draft ceiling no matter what he does next season.
Glenn is a ton of ability and could go first round for a team taking a flier on potential (i.e. he'd be boom/bust). Contrary to Nik, he could definitely raise his stock to Top 15 with another year.
Mitch is in the same boat as Glenn, but for obviously different reasons. I've never really understood why being 23 is a bad thing as a rookie. Your first contact is 3-4 years, and he still has plenty of basketball left. Taking a 20 year old over a 23 year old based on age is taking a weird gamble that they'll both still be productive at like 34 and 37 years old. I seriously doubt he's a) on your roster anymore, and b) someone you count on for 30 minutes every night...unless you're a terrible GM.
It's not about how close they are to decline. It's about potential: a 23 year old dominating a bunch of guys younger than him is significantly less impressive than a 19 year old doing the same in the eyes of NBA scouts. Also, younger guys are perceived as having more room to improve, where older guys are thought of as finished products.
You're right, and I see the appeal of an 18 year old phenom. I just think 23 vs 20, assuming both has had 2+ years in a weight program seem negigible to me (in basketball). As far as potential, it has merit if you're talking about the #1 pick. Mitch might have blown his shot at being a lottery pick, but I can see him being a 15-30 pick next year at 23 years old. Like I wrote above in my opinion about Nik, you're not going to find many guys with superstar potential at that point in the draft anyway.
If they do all come back, we would be over the scholarship limit by 1. So I'm assuming JB encourages someone to go pro if they are projected to go 1st round.
Is that with Hatch on an athletic scholarship?
That may indeed be the way it turns out, but I've seen only speculation on that particular situation. Frankly, rather douchey speculation.
God bless the kid, but he's 2-2 from 3PT in High School this season. I would love to him recover completely and compete at the NCAA level, but it's just not there. He's been the most realistic about the expectations he has for himself (based on some quotes I've read), but I would be shocked if he played any more than five symbolic minutes. This is not meant to be douchey, but it is my honest opinion as a objective observer. I will bet that he receives a medical redshirt and contributes to the MBB program in big ways beyond the active roster. My only question is whether they can apply the medical redshirt immediately, or if he'll count next year.
To reiterate: We're all rooting for Austin and he deserves a scholarship (athletic or medical), so whatever it takes to have him at Michigan I am fine with. I just don't believe his body will allow him to play at Michigan.
Coach Beilein didn't ask Hatch's coach if he wanted to be part of a touching news story. He asked him if he wanted to be part of a miracle. I really don't care how improbable it is. You're pissing on the kid's dreams. You should probably stop.
Hatch said himself he will probably play some role with the team but not play basketball most likely.
That taking a medical means he can never play in a game. Even in garbage time. That would be no small tragedy in my book.
Kid has seen enough of that.
Easy pal, I was as respectful as I could possibly be. Nobody is pissing on a dream here. Anyone with a dream is going to have doubters, and I'm sure Austin knows the odds he is facing. To borrow from the quote you used, it would be a "miracle" if he were to play at Michigan. As an objective party I can state my opinion on his career prospects. That is my opinion. And I doubt my opinion will stop Austin from working towards his goal of a full return.
TO BE CRYSTAL CLEAR: I am personally rooting for him. Everyone at Michigan is. I hope he's in the gym right now working on his comeback. His recovery and optimism already qualify as miracles in my book, so I don't think he has anything to be ashamed of if he does end up taking a medical redshirt. I would be proud to call him an employee, colleague, teammate, or hopefully, "Dr. Hatch"
You should probably inject some reality into whatever world you're living in. He's barely capable of taking the court in high school.
The indications from every source have been that he won't count against the numbers. John Beilein is not going to tell one of GR3, Nik or Mitch to screw off so he can bring Hatch in on a regular basketball scholarship. He'll still get a full ride to Michigan and be part of the basketball program - there's no reason to be upset about that prospect.
That is not the way that I have understood it. At UMHoops scholarship by class, he's on the list. Beilein said they'd honor his scholarship, not that they'd give him a spot with the team. I beleieve that he'll have a scholarship for one year and in the most likely scenario where he can't compete at high level basketball anymore, will be given a medical hardship waiver and thus keep his scholarship, but not count against our numbers after that. However, in order to do that he has to count against our scholarship numbers for one year meaning we would be over next year if everyone comes back.
But I think that would require a medical or a transfer.
Hate to say it, but McGary has gotta be gone with his age and the fact that he originally planned on being a one-and-done.
Obviously. Never said he wasn't. However, remember when he was being recruited and he said something along the lines of Michigan being a football powerhouse and his experience attending the football game being an influential factor? He wanted to have a cool college experience. It's not like he's committed to getting a degree, and there's nothing wrong with that in his circumstance. Coupled with the fact that he's not getting any younger, I don't see how he stays.
in all likelihood he stays, beause this class is loaded and next year not so much.
My understanding is that this year is very deep at the top, but thins out by the end of the first round, whereas next year a bit flatter in talent, but deeper.
He doesn't seem like he's got much to lose. He's gonna be a second round pick it looks like, so why not try to come back strong next year and play himself back up the board. It's not gonna get worse if he gets hurt again -- second round is nothing guaranteed and he'll have to earn his way regardless.
I think actually it makes the most sense for GRIII to go, just because I don't think he's really improving right now, and his athleticism might work better in the NBA than it does in college. Maybe somebody will take a chance on him thinking about how Andre Drummond looked coming out, for example (though I know the position makes a big difference there..). Besides, his biggest asset is just raw athleticism, which he has as much of now as he ever will.
Stauskas on the other hand I think could definitely improve his NBA skillset with another year. He still looks iffy to me on defense and the last couple games he's been forcing some passes and scoring less. But I do think he's the best NBA player of the three right now.
Of the three of them, I'd bet on McGary coming back before the other two. We shall see.
he had his chance. It's obvious that was not important to him. I expect him to leave if he's projected to go high enough, but it remains to be seen how his recovery progresses and how it impacts his draft prospects.
I wouldn't be surprised to see McGary back. His stock must have taken a major hit with him being out. His stock would rise like crazy with the talent we could have next year.
The 3 of them coming back next year, with MSU losing all they lose (assuming Harris leaves) I would love it!!!!
But I wouldn't be upset if that doesn't happen, let the players do what they need to do.
On paper, MSU will have their least talented team in years (assuming Harris' exit also). Dawson is an All Big Ten 2nd team player, and Costello, Valentine, Trice, Kaminsky, Schilling, and Ellis make up an NCAA level team. But they've struck out recruiting lately and looking at falling a step behind Michigan, OSU, IU, and Wisconsin on paper.
It's only paper though.
lol. most overrated player in ages.
MSU loses a ton. Next year will remind me of the 2007 and 2011 teams.
comes back next year we could be just as good. It would be awesome to be legit B1G contenders for 4 straight seasons. I can't remember the last time the football team could say that.
93 grad and you can't remember. i guess you went overseas after you graduated.
It would be awesome to be legit B1G contenders for 4 straight seasons. I can't remember the last time the football team could say that.
How about every year from 1997 to 2004? Five titles in eight years and we finished 2nd or 3rd the other three times.
that he didnt leave last year. His stock is dropping and the longer he stays and doesn't turn "potential" into production, the more he'll be hurt. It's looking more and more like our better lineup is with Irvin in the game ahead of Robinson. He just has not improved his outside shot and seems to be more passive than ever. Really hope he turns it around not just for the team but himself.
Feel bad for Mitch. He just got incredibly unlucky with an injury. GR3 gambled on his skillset and lost. That's unfortunate, but nothing like Mitch's situation.
but i see nothing in his game to say he improves much.
I know that's not really your point, but to say he won't improve is opinion. Fact is there's lots of room for improvement and a coaching staff that can help that happen.
GRIII's problem is between the ears. He doesn't play hard and doesn't seem to be doing the things he needs to do to get better. He's soft.
You go 2-9 does not mean your soft. He definitely needs a more attacking mindset though to complement his skill set. The nba does not need a finesse player with his physique, size and game. He is explosive without the always on attitude to utilize his explosiveness. I would say he needs to be a bigger terror on d too if his offense is going to plateau where it's st. Otherwise, I am thinking second rounder. Still a big fan.
So, in other words....
Nik is the best bet to leave. All the "experts" have him in that 14-18 range even with that bad stretch.
If no one leaves for the NBA id be ecstatic. But I expect that at least 1 will leave.
i could see all three saying let's get this thing in 2015. although, i think we can make a run here in 2014.
Who would draft Robinson in reality? He is not ready. I won't put him down or even go into detail. It will be a blow if any of our three go that could.
None of these kids are ready for the league. Stauskas needs another year period point blank. He lacks quickness and is a horrid defender. He also tends to have trouble breaking free of ball denial and becomes passive when the defense ratchets up.
Glenn....is simply NOT ready. Streaky scorer with limited dribble drive. Plays passionless through stretches still and doesn't seem to have a well rounded enough game to go pro quite yet.
McGary has not done anything this season and is a massive draft risk. McGary played well in the NCAA tourney and that was about it.
Why give up a degree and your Junior year and a chance to be a National Title team to enter a loaded draft in which none of the above are lottery picks. This is all silly and premature.
if all of them come back cant they just redshirt one of doyle or wilson and medically redshirt hatch, then let chatman and doyle or wilson start next year leaving the class at 12, isnt that plausible just wondering not sure how basketball goes
on scholarship limits. Further, redshirts are only official after a season. Annoucng that a player is expected to redshirt does not preclude you from playing him if the need arises. See Caris LaVert last season.
You people are crazy saying they should go bc we don't have room. You make room for them it's that easy. The same people crying about Trey leaving to early are saying well they should go bc there stock will never go up even if they stay is the dumbest thing I've heard on here. Can you imagine our team next year if everyone came back?? It's championship or bust baby.
How could you say he won't improve?? We all thought this yr would be GRllls year but it's been Nik's come out party... keep playing 2k bc your hoop knowledge is terrible.
It's like McGary last year. IIRC he wasn't even in the discussion to go pro last year if it wasn't for his sensational play in the tournament. . .
It was exciting seeing him get so much attention out of nowhere during the tournament.
I know that sounds weird and it would be awesome to have them back, but we need to think about the legitimacy of the word of this staff. Obviously we don't know what the staff said behind closed doors, but GR3 and MM were mid first round picks last year and they came back. That could very easily be perceived as the coaching staff not having the best interests of their players on their mind.
Obviously there is a mountain of data to say otherwise, but the reality is that GR3 and MM were legitimately our best prospects of the last decade. They should have had much better shots of going to the NBA, and had that opportunity last year, for this staff to be considered true savants of developing talent.
Granted much of this is moot because I have come to trust this staff more than is reasonably possible. We know the team will improve, will bounce back, and will ALWAYS find talent no matter the ranking. It would just be lovely to take that next step of not having to have a convergence of luck and talent to be a truly elite team (though you could also easily argue that we are at that stage now).
Well, apparently I have no point. I just hope for GR3 and MM that they get drafted high this year or some year because they are good players and I can only hope they get what's best for them.
Is no longer the prospect you think he is. I hope he turns it around but he is not an nba player right now and the scoutniks are starting to see it. I am just hoping he gets to being a dominant d1 player. He can do it but it's not even close right now. I would say Irving 's scoring ability might have his projections exceed Robinson 's if current trends hold. Great kid.
On mm, I think he would clearly be drafted but that might not individually be a good biz decision for him. I'd take a policy out if I were him (hope he did already) and show I could get through another season to see if I could get in top of first round in weaker class next year. That said he is a bit older so it may behoove him to go late first round this year.
GRIII has a father who played very well in the NBA. It's not like he doesn't have someone to turn to for advice.
The coaches didn't throw a banana on the court to hurt him. He had a history with his back. He knew the risks and he gambled that he would come back and have a great year. Hopefully he can come back and show that.
Regardless, I hope someone does leave from the standpoint that if someone plays well down the stretch and in the tournaments to dramatically upgrade their status, it probably means we are competing for titles. If not we should have a great team next year.
Neither one of them particularly heralded recruits. I don't think you can really question Beilein's NBA player development at this point.
I don't know if I but that. Tom Izzo rarely puts out top line NBA prospects but he still gets 5 star recruits and has great teams. It's nice to send players to the NBA, but not necessary
Supposed to be a reply to Vblueball8
He has failed to land elite players the last two years. Recruits may be realizing it's not the place to go if you want to be in the NBA in a couple years.
for about 9-10 guys who actually play in a given season?
I looks like we have a pretty good problem. Lots of talent for next year and (maybe) one tough decision.
Prefer our position rather than something like KY when your freshman are gone after one year.