but I never really heard us being in on any of the top guys from Ohio this year anyway. Most of our more local guys are actually coming from Michigan, Illinois, and Western PA. If New Jersey is more recruitable because it's in the conference footprint and such, then maybe there are fewer guys out of Ohio that are real needs anyway.
National trend of Michigan's 2014 class
IMO the more accurate question is who would you really want from OH? Seems like a down year for talent in the state. Of the rivals top 10 from there; Berger is the only one I’d really want to add over what we have already. Lattimore would be nice on offense (NOT giving up Drake!!), also not on defense if it cost us Peppers or Westphal. Booker would be great, but same position as Ferns and I’d rather have Michael. I prefer everyone we are in on the OLine and rest of the offense and same with DLine and most of the defensive side. (Although I guess I concede Horton would fit nicely, but doubt he would come following Green and the couple of great backs we are strong with in 2015.)
Not worried about recruits, I just found it interesting how MIchigan got 4-5 of the top 10 from Ohio in 2012 and 2013 and this year it dropped to 1. If Hoke keeps pulling in players like Peppers, who gives a damn about Ohio.
I see your point, however maybe it is because we don't have a need at those positions that the top 10 players within Ohio play or that there are players in Michigan in which you can recruit with much more ease for a position of need compared to Ohio recruits. I don't think we should ever steer clear away from recruiting Ohio though. Carr did towards the end and RR had little success there. They provide great football players and we need to acknowledge that, and put the time and efforts into bringing their kids to AA.
It's also really early in the recruiting cycle.
It is just one year, it really isn't fair to make assumptions based off one year's data.
I don't think the class of recruits in Ohio is as good as it has been in the past two or three years. There aren't many guys in the 2014 class that I really want(ed), except maybe Marshon Lattimore and Dante Booker. They traditionally put out some good offensive and defensive linemen, but I don't see much quality there.
you seem worried.
You said yourself, small sample size.
We currently have the #1 class and OSU doesn't.
There weren't a ton of great guys in Ohio this year. There were almost as many good recruits in Michigan. Drake Harris, Malik McDowell, Damon webb, Lawrence Marshall.
I just checked, and that's correct. Basically, it looks like there are four 5.9s and higher in the state this year; we got one (Ferns), Kentucky got one, and Ohio already has one, with the last one looking like a lean that way. Then, there are some 5.8s who have pledged, but by no means all, and they actually have quite a few three stars out of the state as well. Michigan was just similar in talent this year, so the push in Ohio was less.
Yeah I think this s why we've seen less commits from Ohio this year. The difference between Hoke and RR and Carr to an extent is that Hoke has great relationships with coaches in Ohio so I don't think we will be locked out in the future any more. I think we will continue to get our fair share of top ohio players in the future.
Is it possible Hoke is targeting recruits outside of Ohio this year because he wants to secure all the big fish instead of being forced by Ohio to look elsewhere? After all, our recruits are currently better than theirs.
I think this is astute. It would be naive to think that Urban locking down Ohio recruits is just a random blip, and it takes extreme historical blinders to think that Ohio is irrelevant to Michigan. Woodson and Howard both came from Ohio, and when Tressel closed the gate Ohio State dominated us for years.
It is extremely encouraging that Michigan is now not only in on top national recruits, but landing them; it is also a bit concerning that Ohio is getting cut off. Barring a turn toward a USC/Alabama like run of national recruiting dominance (I wouldn't mind that at all, assuming it was ethical) Michigan is going to need to consistently land talent in Ohio to win B1G and national titles.
We have fewer Ohio commits than last year. What you're ignoring, however, is how many offers we have to Ohio prospects, compared to last year. It's not like we've offered a ton of Ohio kids, and they're all going to OSU.
By my count, we have offered 9 players in Ohio, 10 if you count Tate who looks like he's playing basketball. 3 of those dudes have committed to OSU, with Lattimore looking close. One is obviously Ferns. Some of those guys we aren't recruiting that hard either, like Joe Henderson and LJ Scott.
So our lack of Ohio commits is mostly due to fewer Ohio players that we're interested in, not that Urban has sucked them all up.
This is exactly what I was thinking. Just because Michigan doesn't have a lot of Ohio kids in one recruiting cycle doesn't mean Urban has 'locked' the state down (especially so when its only May). I'd be interested in seeing how many recruits from Ohio were offered by Hoke last year. That would be the best way to compare, I'd think.
Per 247, Michigan offered 17 Ohio prospects in 2013 as opposed to 8 prospects in 2014. This makes it clear that Michigan simply did not want as many players from Ohio this year.
The lack of Ohio recruits would be worrisome if Hoke was settling for lesser prospects but, as has been pointed out, he is getting higher rated recruits instead. If Ohio is locked down a couple years from now and Hoke is getting shut out nationally then there will be reason for concern. I guess he could always take a few cues from one of his coaching neighbors and start recruiting internationally and galactically if that happens.
I don't think Hoke really cares what state a kid comes from. They're going to cast a wide net, and then focus on the prospects they really like and who have mutual interest.
Last year was a big year in Ohio, and there were a lot of guys we liked who either didn't have OSU offers (McCray, Charlton, Butt, Douglas, Dukes, Dawson) or guys who had OSU offers and wanted us more than them (Smith, Gedeon, Thomas). This year, some of the guys who fit those needs have just come from other places. We got Bunting from IL, instead of Butt from OH. We got Ways from MI, instead of Dukes from OH. Peppers instead of Thomas, etc.
Some years Ohio will be deep, and we'll take a lot of guys from there. Other years they won't be and we'll take fewer. This is the way it has always been; it has little to do with Urban locking anything down.
I agree with this. Also, what you describe resembles Michigan's recruiting strategy during the John Cooper era--Michigan pulled elite talent nationally, but still got players from Ohio often enough.
It must be noted that those motherless Fs at OSU often deliberately don't offer players who are high on Michigan early, as a strategy. Like Conley.
I think Hoke looks at Ohio as a HUGE priority. He has said so multiple times and even was recently on an OSU radio station. National recruits are great but its not something we can rely on. Ohio is a state that we have to continue concentrating on and hard.....and I have a feeling Meyer may rub some Ohio coaches the wrong way so its a perfect time to establish and strengthen relationships there.
while it may vary from year to year, in long term,
1. Ohio State will always get more talents from the state of Ohio than Michigan, but Michigan will always get its fair share.
2. Michigan's will always recruit more national than Ohio State because it has more prestige.
Number 2 SHOULD be the case but OSU has beat us nationally the past six years
......it's a better academic school with a more likable less slimy coach (with better uniforms to boot!).
Prestige is hard to measure,,,,OSU really had our number In football recently and probably a higher national profile until the RR era ended. Brady just reminded us that UM never should have left that national stage as a traditional football power and has us back like we never left....................fergodsakes.
Then we will be okay. Rule #1 in recruiting is to win your own backyard and then its okay to run into somebody elses. As a previous poster said, we will always at least compete for the top level Ohio guys that we want and all you can ask for is a chance. As I type this I realize how much that recruiting combo of Urb and Mattison had to terrorize SEC coaches a few years ago...
Everyone isn't the same. Brady can't just say "I want 5 of the top 10 in Ohio this year". Some years (maybe this year), everyone in that group wants to go to Ohio and some years (2013) a lot of them are open to coming to Michigan. Brady & Co. don't always have a huge potential on that fact
Next year we might get 5 of the top 10 again and we'll wonder why the focus is changed again. Focus probably hasn't changed, just what guys are interested in Michigan
I agree with that, altough this year is more like Brady saying "I'm only interested in the top 5 this year" which just means we only get one or two of them. Which is fine because a) we have a small class, and b) other states (New Jersey, anyone?) are being good to us.
Michigan is the only state where where it's pivotal for us to get the top talent. Outside of our own state, we'll recruit guys who fit our needs and have a mutual interest. If those outside recruits are OSU targets from Ohio, it's just icing on the cake! If not, oh well. Ohio State should be locking up their best in-state recruits, so it's no sweat off our backs if that's what's happening.
where the elite talent in Michigan was equal to the elite talent in Ohio and our numbers were low, so the push wasn't as strong.
Don't get too caught up in 2015 recruiting. The rankings change so much between when kids are sophomores and when they finish their senior football season. I think we'll do fine in 2015.
We'll steal a recruit or two in Ohio, a few in Michigan, hopefully one in Kentucky, and probably a couple in Illinois, New Jersey, and some out west. 2015 will be a small class, so nothing to fret about too much.
The gates are as open as they've ever been, thanks in part to Coach Hoke.
Ohio is usually a very deep state, and what people forget is that Michigan has made a pretty good living off of guys that OSU doesn't want, or offers but as a lower priority. Guys like Jake Ryan, Jibreel Black, Elliott Mealer, Roy Roundtree and Fitz Toussaint have been guys in the recent past who have been anywhere from pretty good to great who OSU didn't want and we picked up. It's likely guys like Jack Miller, Jake Butt, Taco Charlton and others follow in that mold.
Lock down the state of Michigan, and you'll be fine. It'd be great to snatch the best Ohio has to offer, but we're getting just as good, if not better talent elsewhere. I think its great that Hoke spent his first two years building up a great base of relationships with coaches throughout the Midwest, particularly in Ohio. Get familiar with your own backyard. Now, especially with this class, he's branching out to the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, out West, etc.
Maybe that was his intent all along, maybe it wasn't. But whatever his plan is, its working.
IMO, Hoke and Mattison know what type of kids they want and they can reel in talent from anywhere in the country as proven this year. The state doesn't matter, as long as we show we can win, this coaching staff will continue to get elite talent !!!
Also because local recruiting is more of a zero sum game. If we miss on a player from California, chances are that player will never play a game against us. If we miss on a player from Michigan or Ohio, he'll probably be playing against us the next 4 years.
...and we will just have to settle for elite 5 star players from here on out.
Urban is locking down Ohio again? We took 6 4* kids from Ohio last year. We also have Ferns this year.
Tak on that we got a highly rated kid from Florida, probably New Jersey's top rated recruit ever, one of the top kids in the state of Utah, and the top kid from the state of Michigan, we're recruiting better than Urbz.
And we're doing that whole national thing MD was talking about.
It is not a matter of Ohio kids versus non-Ohio kids. It is not about Urban locking down the state.
Urban isn't keeping UM out and Michigan isn't trying to avoid Ohio. Talent goes up and down each year in Ohio. Urban likes following recruiting sites and going after national kids. Hoke may focus on national kids which then makes the Ohio kids feel more live from OSU or the reverse. Etc.
The real assessment is who is winning the head to head battle for mutually pursued kids. That matters a lot more than state of citizenship.
The Buckeyes are always going to get top kids out of Ohio but they can't take them all. Most years Ohio will win the battle down there but Michigan will certainly pull kids from there. The whole border being locked down thing would mean a lot more if Hoke wasn't killing it across the country.
This is from the Rivals database, so results might be a little different than 247.
We won't know the final tally for a while, but to date for the 2014 recruits, there are actually 194 who have offers from Michigan and Ohio State. Of those, 13 are from the state of Ohio and we have one commit to Ohio State's six. It's way early yet, and there isn't enough data on 2015 to even make any sort of estimate.
If you look at the period from 2011 to 2013, however, there were 651 recruits that had an offer from Michigan and Ohio State, and 101 of those were Ohio kids. In that period, we managed to get 25 of them and Ohio State managed to get 38.
How about head to head nationally? And overall for Hoke v Meyer? My guess is Hoke is doing better this year.
I actually clicked away from it, but I captured enough to give some high-level figures with Ohio as the basis for comparison - it will sound strange, but it will tell some of the story anyway. I sadly didn't capture specifically instances where, say, both Ohio State and Michigan were in the top 5 for a recruit.
For the Urban era specifically - In 2012, 15 of Ohio State's 25 commits were from Ohio, compared to 9 for us. In 2013, both schools had 9 commits from Ohio, but Ohio State's class size was 24 to our 27. So far in the 2014 cycle, 6 of Ohio State's 9 verbal commits are from Ohio, whereas only 1 of the 10 we have is from Ohio. In the two complete cycles - 2012 and 2013 - 46% of Ohio State's commits came from the state of Ohio, compared to 36% of ours.
In the 2011-2013 period, over half (52%) of Ohio State's commits come from Ohio, compared to 35% for us. Particularly this year, however, it seems that Urban has stayed home to date whereas we've been having success all over the place, and that's great for Michigan as a program really in terms of our profile. Based on rough figures, it certainly seems like we have greater success nationally.
I was thinking of how many total recruits that held offers from both schools ended up picking one over the other. I feel a lot of UM recruits this year (ferns, marshall, peppers, harris, etc.) had Ohio offers. It seems like Hoke is doing better against Meter overall, but maybe not.
I know a lot of these offers are just placeholders but it is still amazing that to get 15 to 20 kids schools put out some 200 offers. That's a 10% signing to offer rate.
Hoke is from Ohio and knows the type of talent that can come from Ohio and that, long term, he can't just give Ohio away. He'll recruit Ohio and keep relationships strong with high school coaches in Ohio. It simply isn't Ohio or bust, and that's good.
Hoke is recruiting against the backdrop of Ohio dominating us in recent years. Ohio has beaten Michigan regularly within the football memories of seventeen year olds. That should change.
Not only will some years be deeper in terms of ohio talent, but it's always going to be up in the air as to how many of those guys will seriously consider coming to Michigan. Let's face it: A lot of these guys are raised worshipping ohio and if they get an offer then they're going to almost always head to Columbus. What percentage of kids are like that will change every year. We shouldn't be discouraged if one year has a few less players interested than another - and in any case, the more we win, the more kids will grow up as Wolverine fans. But this fluctuation is good reason to grab the top Michigan kids and continue to recruit nationally. As long as this program keeps winning, we'll land our share nationally enough that we don't have to panic if one year in ohio isn't as good as the last.
All that being said, people are way to quick to read things into the number of commits from here or there in a single recruiting cycle. Early on, depending on your perspective Hoke was either doing a great job because he was stealing all these ohio kids or he was doing a poor job of recruiting nationally. Now he's either doing a great job because he's getting kids from all over, or he's dropping the ball in ohio. Conversely, early on Meyer was doing a fantastic job nationally or allowing ohio kids to slip away and burning his local bridges in the process. Now he's either winning ohio again and shutting Hoke out, or his national reach is drying up. Which narrative do you prefer?
It just may be that every cycle is a little different, and you have to grab the top players that are interested in your program regardless of where they come from. It can't be that simple, can it?
Yes your first point is critical. With CFB being the national sport in Ohio, there are some kids who were just born into the system and you are not going to flip them no matter what. So I think after a conversation or two and just talking to their coaches Hoke & Co are going to know quite quickly who those kids are. No reason to waste resources on those kids who are going to the school they have been surrounded by every moment of their lives.
Then there are kids who are open minded and the others who want to "be rebels/different" who Michigan is going to have a good chance with. This year also seems to be a down year for Ohio talent versus normal so less players available - if in any year you have 20 Ohio players that can be shared among the 2 schools at this specific talent but this year it is 15 that is by nature going to reduce the Ohio focus.
Look in the long run Urban is going to get a majority of Ohio players - any coach coaching that university will. Michigan will continue to have a pipeline. If it fluctuates by 2-4 players every year none of these things are going to change.
According to the link, 2 of the top 10 are OL. We took 7 OL last year and 4 the year before.I am not saying the 2 this year wanted to go to UM or anything, but OSU has big need at OL so recruits who want early playing time or an easier chance to compete will see the lack of depth there.
Hoke has also done a great job pulling guys from Illinois and it seems like he is focusing on the mid-Atlantic.
UM have essentially flipped recruiting geographies. Some credit goes to Urban for snagging Webb and Berger who were key UM targets.
A big difference is UM actually winning the national kids early. We missed on a bunch of national kids in the last 2 years when we were very close (hat left on the table).
Rather have Peppers than a high 3* from Ohio.
This year has an emphasis on best possible recruit since we have such a small class. We may only take as little as 15 commits, but probably no more than 20. I venture a guess it actually ends up closer to the former than the latter (why? At 20 we all would be alarmed at such attrition in on off-season again). That means,regardless, we want the best commit and where he is from isn't the only criteria.
I am sure there are plenty of Ohio kids who would commit on the spot for us, but we need to show that kind of interest in them -- same goes for them committing to Ohio.
There are 2 issues w/ Michigan's recruiting of Ohio: The top players and the rest of the solid base.
Of the top players, it's a combination of an unuaually low number of top players and a small sample. IME only 5 of the top 20 Midwest players are from Ohio. Typically that number is about 10. (Of the rest of the top 20, 4 are from Michigan, 6 are from Illinois, 2 from Iowa, and 1 each from Minnesota, Wisconsin and Indiana.)
It is true that of those 5, Michigan only has one in the bag, and Lattimore will probably go to the darkside, giving OSU the other 4. Berger was a head to head fight. I don't know how the recruiting of Booker and Trout went. But, if that ratio were 2-3 instead of 1-4, it would be spot on the goal.
The second issue is why we're not reaching further down in Ohio. Normally, we'd recruit deeper down, but the combination of the smaller class, good luck elsewhere and Brady's apparent strategy of working for more at the top means fewer OH recruits overall.
I'll bet next year is in between this year and the previous one.
I think we can thank that Alabama ass kicking for an increased intensity and focus on recruiting. It was rather astute to play Alabama in order to gauge where the program was at. It was a wake up call. A realization that without elite talent, you do not beat elite teams. I doubted this staff's ability to recruit corners until yesterday. Jabrill Peppers is the truth. Condensed.
Now if only they could flip Damon Webb..
Webb is OSUs version of Ferns and the most vocal OSU recruiter with a recruit website to boot. Lets just say he is pot committed now with OSU.
IF we pull Westphal and any of Jackson, JuJu Smith, or Tabor.....I'd take that secondary and look at the Webb OSU pledge as a minor inconvenience. With the young secondary studs already at UM, we are talking about a team strength......it's been awhile since the secondary was a team strength.
ciliatory when asked about the rivalry--continually noting that some of our best players do and have come from there--is precisely the right ongoing stance in such a context.
I think Hoke has changed the tide on the rivalry. Hell people in Ohio are starting to believe him. Never in a million years I would have thought that. Selling Michigan jerseys is a good start.
Why would you need to settle with an Ohio guy when they have the opportunity to land a player like Peppers? if the coaching staff has the opportunity to land the best players in the country all around the country, why be concerned with the number of Ohio guys that they have?
in a fertile traditional recruiting ground?
If Michigan pulled in the top five guys from Texas, Florida, California, and Alabama every single year, there wouldn't be a need to maintain a presence in fertile Ohio. You want good players. It doesn't necessarily matter where they come from.
I do think Michigan should maintain a presence in Ohio, and they are (pulled in Michael Ferns, offered a few other guys, etc.). But we shouldn't be taking guys from Ohio just because they're from that sucky state down south.
We have a top rated class and I don't care where the kids attend high school.
I think that Hoke probably isnt going to worry about consistently pulling from OHIO as long as he's getting elite recruits nationwide. If HOKE and Co. truly thought that Michigan and OHIO recruits were to the key to building a program, he would pull from his network at will. But he has been very fortunate this recruiting cycle to recruit and win the best of the best. I see the way the recruiting cycle works. The best talent talk to each other and want to play with each other. So, as long as Michigan continues to win ball games (esp. against MSU and OHIO). we will lock down home state, OHIO, and potentially open ourselves to a much wider network. 5 years from now, Michigan may be on the level of Alabama and USC....i hope i hoke i hope. Go BLUE.
Ohio is #8. So, I would not worry too much about this year, especially in view of recent history.
Ask yourself. How did Tressel really "lock down" Ohio? We know he covered up cheating. Who knows how much of it was really going on? Take Clarret, Tressel’s early springboard to success. He reported academic fraud, no-show jobs, cars, and money. He said he was paid a lot more at Ohio than he got in the pros. What about Tressel's next big "success", Troy Smith? Smith said he took the rap for getting booster money because he would otherwise expose others. Indeed, many other Ohio players had also reported no show-jobs, cars and a host of other extra benefits.
So, can Ohio lock down the state without such reported cheating? Can it still afford to risk being a repeat offender? Can it forever rely on a spineless NCAA, led for the moment by an Ohio-connected guy who is now under attack?
Is he their savior? Just ask Florda, whose original turnaround was engineered not by Meyer but by Steve Spurrier . Just ask Florida, whose real recruiting success was engineered not by Meyer but by Greg Mattison. After Mattison’s recruits left, Florida declined. Then,, suddenly Meyer couldn’t beat Nick Saban.,
So what did Meyer do? Talk about chickens. He even made Notre Dame look courageous. Meyer claimed he had to leave Florida due to health concerns. Yet, his so-called heart problem turned out to reveal his real inner “chicken.” He did not have-a heart condition but an anxiety related problem--heartburn and related spasms in his esophagus..
Granted, Meyer later appeared to show recruits that he was not chicken. He said he was a returning. So, was Urban really saying: “when the going gets tough, the tough get going? “
Yes, if by “going” you mean leaving again.
After it was too late for recruits to depart with similar impunity, Meyer left Florida in a complete mess. The team was full of a bunch of criminals and drug abusers, whose self-absorption was rivaled only by that of their prima donna coach.
as Tressel did, consider that, unlike Meyer,Tressel, competed with a stranger to Ohio—Rodriguez-- and aging Lloyd Carr. Prior to Tressel, in Carr's youth, Ohio certainly did not lock down the state. Carr helped steal from Ohio two future Heisman winners and many other top players. Also, Meyer no longer has Greg Mattison to help him but must compete against him. In fact, Mattison has become an even more formidable foe since leaving Urban. He has done things that this wistful college coach can only dream of: He’s directed the best defense in the NFL—with superstars like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Also, unlike Tressel, Meyer now must face a far more personable and rising coach, Brady Hoke--who, like Bo Schembechler, has roots in Ohio. Brady will never pursue, with the same enthusiasm, the entitled, self-absorbed high school stars that Urban brought to Florida. Brady seeks the type of players Bo did: ones who want to play for “the team, the team, the team”
Especially considering how horrible Rich Rod was, I think that Hoke is doing an outstanding job and he is only proving himself further with these recruits coming in. It won't be long before B1G is as strong in football as it is in basketball
With a smaller class this year Michigan had to be a bit more selective. To say that Michigan just didn't really want any of the Ohio kids would be ignorant thinking though. Perhaps they didn't want as many with this class being smaller, but either way Osu has done a good job protecting its borders this year. If my memory serves me correctly most of these guys were heavy Osu leans throughout their recruiting process ( Booker comes to mind), I'm really not surprised that we didn't land a ton of those guys
Also keep in mind that we didn't see as much elite talent coming out of Ohio as we usually do, and that Michigan has done an outstanding job in-state with the elite prospects from MI.(with the exception of Webb, that did sting a bit). Michigan has more than compensated for the lack of regional recruits with high-end national talent. So as long as Michigan is able to come back and recruit the region well next year then we have nothing to worry about.
you understand Michigan and Ohio St. being two sides of the same football coin, you understand the importance of recruiting Ohio and the intensity of the rivalry.
First, to expand your valid point, it is not only tradition but also simple econoimics that fuels such rivalries. In effect, when UM "steals" a prized recruit from Ohio or dominates Michigan state recruiting, it not merely strengthen's UM but also weakens our rivals. So, the incentive to compete is greatly magnified.
At the same time, I have mixed feelings about the so-called Ohio "rivalry." TO see why, imagine that you had a weekly poker game for many years with the same guys. A long time ago, another player told you (in the words of Lloyd Carr): "we know somebody is cheating but we just can't prove it." Another player said (in the words of Bo Schembechler) that a certain player was "a snake." Then, years later, you stumble into definitive proof that that this guy had been cheating--who knows for how long--probably upwards of ten years. Then, it also becomes apparent that everybody in his family, who you regularly got together with, also knew about the cheating. But they said nothing. In fact, they laughed about it privately. They encouraged its continuation. They profited by it.
Regardless if you had a winning record for the past 25 years against this guy and others in his family, what would you think? Would the the relationship with them still be so important to you? Wouild you even call your weekly poker game a "rivalry" or a "competition"--or rather just a cynical attempt to appear like one?
Maybe you are more tolerant than me, but I'd be tempted to throw the fellow out of my house and never have anything more to do with his "family"? Tradition be damned. I'd prefer to find a new "player" for the game--one that I can trust and respect and who shares my values (maybe even someone from Stanford or Cal).
I am not sure if UM is therefore competing less than it did before with Ohio. The competition still is intense. However, while UM and Ohio are both in the B1G, they are not really in the same "league". As communication, transportation, and media make bring diverse parts of the US closer together, geographic proximity to Ohio may become less important. Thus, the type of student that comes here may increasingly be more like the type that goes to Stanford or Cal.