Nate Silver on B1G expansion

Submitted by dnak438 on

The article is here on his NYT blog.

Some highlights:

 

Maryland and Rutgers are not necessarily poor choices compared with some of the other logical alternatives.

I count five other universities that are A.A.U. members, that play in a major college football conference, and that are either within a current Big Ten state or border one.

And the conclusion:

It is probably no coincidence that the two most popular college football conferences – the Southeastern and the Big Ten – have until now been the most conservative about expansion. The most recent additions to the Big Ten, Penn State and the University of Nebraska, ranked as the 3rd and 18th most popular football programs in the country. The newest additions to the Southeastern Conference, Texas A&M and Missouri, were ranked 6th and 23rd.

Rutgers and Maryland are outstanding public universities – but they are just not in the same league in terms of football.

The Big Ten may have expanded the size of its revenue pie, but it will be dividing it 14 ways rather than 12, and among family members that have less history of sitting down at the table with one another. In seeking to expand its footprint eastward, the conference may have taken a step in the wrong direction.

graybeaver

November 20th, 2012 at 12:18 PM ^

Good for Maryland and Rutgers. Horrible for the rest of the B10. The money pie will now be divided by 14 instead of twelve. The football schedule is going to suck. You'll have to travel further for road games and the layoff from playing schools like Wisconsin and PSU will be even larger. Nobody cares about Rutgers and Maryland. Maryland is literally A welfare rat. Their cutting programs faster than China is buying this country. Rutgers?

snarling wolverine

November 20th, 2012 at 2:18 PM ^

I've got to imagine that Delaney (who is a shrewd businessman if nothing else) crunched the numbers and found that having those two would bring in more per team than we currently were getting.  It makes sense when you consider that we are now in the NYC and DC television markets.

93Grad

November 20th, 2012 at 1:00 PM ^

behind the obvious big 3 targets that made some semblance of sense (Texas, OK, ND) and it looks like they would have been much better adds based on actual fans.  But I guess all that we care about now is cable contracts...sigh...

Der Alte

November 20th, 2012 at 1:04 PM ^

M had a home-only series with MD in the late-eighties, early nineties ('85, '89, and '90). M won by 20 or more points each time. In two of those seasons MD wasn't bad. In '85 they finished 9-3, beating 'Cuse in the Cherry Bowl at the Silverdome. In '90 they went 6-5-1 and beat LA Tech in the Independence Bowl.

The College Football Data Warehouse does not show that M has ever met Rutgers in football, as curious as that seems (to me, anyway).Given the long football history of both schools, sometime back in the day (1890, 1905, whatever) these two should have played each other. Rutgers does own a 3-2 all-time advantage over Little Brother, the two having met last in 2004 at New Brunswick. And Rutgers has played Penn St many times, but is on the short end of a 2-22 all-time record.

So M and MD do share a little --- very little --- football history, but M shares none with Rutgers.  

lhglrkwg

November 20th, 2012 at 1:26 PM ^

what the true reasoning seems to boil down to is getting more BTN subscribers in these states/regions...which when you think about it is kind of insane and over the edge of sanity. We're basically manipulating a 100 year old conference so we can have a channel be on more people's TV's which will ultimately line someone's pockets with money.

And you and I (Joe Schmo Fan) are rewarded with getting to see Rutgers play Indiana every year while you see Michigan play Penn State and Wisconsin never.

turtleboy

November 20th, 2012 at 1:35 PM ^

Rutgers I'm okay with, but Missouri, Pitt, and Syracuse were all much, much better options than Maryland, IMHO. Their fan bases are easliy double Marylands, and they have a much richer tradition of major athletics, and several rivalry games with current Big 14 schools.

AAU membership used to be a black and white symbol of excellence, too, but in recent years the line is pretty grey. Several non-member schools out perform various member schools by leaps and bounds in academics, research, and grants, but don't technically have the exact levels of specific diversity to meet the all around requirements, so they back out, like Syracuse did. Or Nebraska's medical school. It's excellent, butit's off campus, so they're no longer members. 

bronxblue

November 20th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^

As others have noted, this isn't about "football" as much as it is getting BTN on the regular cable networks.  I pay extra for BTN in NY, but if it becomes big enough that ~$16M people (I'm guessing who actually pay for cable) have it included as part of their cable package, we talking about untold wealth and prominence flowing to the Big 10.  And that's the whole reason these conferences exist; to promote their sports and provide for others.  Yes, it dilutes the product in certain sports, but it also helps schools keep non-revenue sports like track and wrestling alive, which definitely isn't a bad thing.  And a sport like hockey, which is pretty big in NE/NY area, would also benefit from being available on cable programs.

These are all imperfect arguments, but I've never understood Brian's (and by extension a subset of the Big 10 fanbase's) fear of growth.  If you still think of college athletics as some uncorrupted bastion of gladitorial combat, then by all means rail against what is happening, but I'm not sure what reality you live in.  But this isn't an example of "MBA suits" ruining something that was previously pristine; it's a bunch of people realizing that having a foothold now means you protect your brand from becoming irrelevant.  We make fun of the BE and ACC for becoming football after-thoughts, but at one point those programs were held up as the pinnacle of sport. They struggled, and now are falling apart.  The same appears to be happening to the Big 12, which is kind of sad given their history.  The Big 10 is protecting its legacy, in a sense, but keeping the money flowing and the brand out there, and even if that means some of your memories and visions of the conference are "tainted", I'd rather that than totally being forgotten.

M-Dog

November 20th, 2012 at 2:58 PM ^

^^^^ This.

I am favor of this for no other reason than the Big Ten will be stable and a robust survivor when all of the turmoil dies down.  That is reason enough.

Putting our heads in the sand and pretending that we can stand by while all of this is going to happen turns us into NC State or Iowa State.

I don't actually like what this does to the Big Ten, but I'd rather be in the B1G's position in 10 years than the ACC's or Big 12's.

 

Brodie

November 20th, 2012 at 3:12 PM ^

Well, in the sense of grabbing schools in other conferences. But the truth is that it was the same causes back then as it was this time... the Big Ten made the opening salvo by grabbing Penn State, that led to a lot of independents scrambling into conferences while at the same time Arkansas had grown frustrated with Texas' dominence of the SWC and made themselves available to the SEC to counterbalance the addition of South Carolina. Texas flirted with the B1G and the Pac-10 and then the Big 8 and the SWC merged, leaving a bunch of the Texas schools scrambling to form new conferences ala the BEast right now.