So let's pretend there was a 16-team playoff in what we call the FBS now, but would need to change its name if it had an actual playoff. (Does it become the FCS-A, versus FCS-AA?) (Maybe they don't have a playoff merely because they don't have a good name for it -- FCS is already taken?)
Now, ignore the stupid polls and computers. YOU are the selection committee. Who do YOU choose as the 16 teams? How do you rank/seed them?
Top 4: 1. LSU; 2. Okie State; 3. Alabama; 4. Oregon. Only possibly could argue if Oregon deserves to be up here, but who else does? Not Stanford; Oregon crushed them, two years in a row.
5. Wiscy; 6. Stanford; 7. Arkansas; 8. Boise State. All of these teams have thin resumes, except for maybe one win (and even Wiscy doesnt have that). But Wiscy has only 2 last-play losses, on the road. Stanford got blown out. I hedge that Wiscy is clearly about the same as MSU, and Boise State is about the same as TCU. But who else deserves to be this high?
9. Clemson; 10. MSU; 11. Georgia; 12. TCU. Yeah, TCU seems high to be in this group, but they had a close loss to Baylor, and are about the same as Boise State, have 10 game win streak. MSU seems high too, but they are about the same as Wiscy (but had two bad losses). Clemson had inexplicable losses but, when good, is pretty good. I put Georgia here b/c they really are a 2-loss team plus then the LSU thing at the end; they won 10 games before playing LSU.
13. South Carolina; 14. Kansas State; 15. UM; 16. Baylor. This isn't so much as who's here, as who ISNT here. Oklahoma - sorry, that last loss left a bad taste in our mouths; team is depleted now. VaTech - some really uninspired wins, plus no really good win. USC - not allowed to play. Houston - one bad bad loss, no marquee wins. tSIO - just had to point out, THEY SUCKED THIS YEAR.
Is it this obvious, these are the right 16? And I seeded them this way to avoid, for the most part, any conferences matching up in the second round (although UM/MSU would be possible, as would Alabama/Georgia):
LSU/Baylor v. Boises State/Clemson
Oregon/South Carolina v. Wisconsin/TCU
Oklahoma State/Michigan v. Arkansas/MSU
Alabama/Kansas State v. Stanford/Georgia
If this came to pass... personally I like our chances. Okie State hasn't played a real defense all year and we CAN put up points; if we escaped Stillwater, I'd favor us to beat done-nothing-all-year Arkansas, or get MSU a second time in EL with a HEALTHY Shoelace. 'Course, the semifinal game against Alabama... well it would be practice for the first game NEXT year!