Myteamisbetter.com predicts Michigan over Wisconsin, stats comparison
Just wanted to share this link which provides updated statistic comparison and prediction on upcoming football games.
I like it because you can get a head-to-head matchup based on statistics in each game facet and FBS rankings, etc. (rushing offense, passing offense, scoring defense, etc.)
Website here: http://myteamsbetter.com/#HOME
Michigan vs. Wisconsin stat comparison and prediction: http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_GAMES?teamPK=418&gamePK=18321&year=2016&statView=Key%20Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS
Similar analyses for potential weekend upsets too.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^
Looks like some high school kid's statistics project.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:18 PM ^
Transitive property, which is of course, 100% always always always always always right. :-)
http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/default.asp?sport=CFB&winner=…
September 26th, 2016 at 4:34 PM ^
The poll ranks the teams with the longest transitive property path over the current #1 team. This also is always right.
http://www.myteamisbetterthanyourteam.com/tpncpoll.asp?date=09%2F25%2F2016
September 26th, 2016 at 1:22 PM ^
I use somethin like that for my march madness bracket. And y'all know how that goes
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September 26th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^
I'll stick with getting my accurate predictions from Counter Strike though.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:27 PM ^
Chat Sports is the spot for analytics.
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September 26th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
I'll stick with watching the game to see who wins
September 26th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
It gives Michigan a higher win probability against Wisconsin than MSU @ Indiana. I actually very much agree with this. Indiana will tear MSU up through the air and has a very good chance to win that game if they limit their turnovers.
56.5% for us seems low... Even if we were evenly matched teams, I would think home field advantage would give us more than 6.5%.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^
ESPN's FPI prediction is 85.2% for us to win, MSU 60%.
Those numbers seem more correct to me.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:42 PM ^
S&P has MSU with a 44% chance of winning in Bloomington this weekend.
September 26th, 2016 at 7:16 PM ^
not all things are transitive.
My money is on MSU. By multiple TDs.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^
If you enjoy Bill C and Football Outsider's stats (you should) they've got updated win probabilities after this weekend.
Wisconsin and Iowa both hold a 79% chance for a win for Michigan, our lowest win probabilities before Ohio State. They give us a 56.6% chance to finish the year either 11-1 or 12-0.
Michigan State's highest probability finish to the year is now 6-6, with 5-7 being more likely than 8-4.
Notre Dame's highest probability finish to the year is now 5-7, with 4-8 being more likely than 6-6.
Fun stuff.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
No way MSU is a 5-7 team.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^
MSU is currently 2-1. Here's their remaining schedule:
- @Indiana - likely win
- BYU - likely win
- Northwestern - likely win
- @Maryland - tossup
- Michigan - likely loss
- @Illinois - likely win
- Rutgers - likely win
- Ohio State - likely loss
- @Penn State - likely win
If they win all the "likely win" games and lose all the "likely lose" games, they'd be 8-3, with a game at Maryland as a tossup. However, I think it's more likely that they drop at least one of the "likely win" games than it is that they beat Michigan or OSU, just judging by the results at this point. They're probably not a 5-7 team, as you noted, but 7-5 or 6-6 seems within reach if they continue to play as badly as they did against Wisconsin.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^
I think they could really do some damage on offense, and if Indiana can get a lead early, I don't know that O'Connor is good enough to go toe-to-toe with Indiana in a shoot out.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^
I think the only games left on their schedule that they would win 5 times out of 5 times played are Northwestern and Rutgers.
September 27th, 2016 at 12:01 AM ^
just to see us irked by the W for our heated rival.
September 26th, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^
I'm thinking this:
- @Indiana - loss - On the road, can MSU score enough?
- BYU - likely win
- Northwestern - likely win
- @Maryland - likely win - Maryland can't score enough to win
- Michigan - likely loss
- @Illinois - likely win
- Rutgers - likely win
- Ohio State - likely loss
- @Penn State - likely win
8-4. I really think their defense will be too good to lose to BYU/Maryland/PSU. I suspect Indiana just scores enough to overwhelm MSU's offense.
But I don't see it getting worse than 8-4. And seriously - Anybody that thinks they will roll over and die at their place against Michigan - I disagree. I think we win by 10ish, but I don't think it's a blowout like Wisconsin.
Rob
September 26th, 2016 at 1:49 PM ^
There is zero chance MSU finishes 5-7.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
Actually there is.
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September 26th, 2016 at 2:04 PM ^
The chance that they finish 5-7 is very much non-zero. Not saying it is likely, but it's probably 5-10%.
September 26th, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^
You clearly don't understand probability.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^
"Michigan State's highest probability finish to the year is now 6-6, with 5-7 being more likely than 8-4."
Yeah I call horseshit on that one.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
Bill C's numbers, not mine. He's got some notoriety they can't just be dismissed.
September 26th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^
means they have to lose three out of four to @Maryland/BYU/@PSU/@Indiana.
Northwestern and Rutgers aren't in the conversation. They both suck far too much to even consider a road win against MSU.
I just don't see 6-6 happening under Dantonio with this schedule. Between coaching and defense, they are too good for that. I know they were 6-6 (+1 on bowl game) in 2012, but I think their schedule was harder that year, and man, they only lost to Michigan/OSU by a combined 3 stinking points.
Rob
September 26th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^
ESPN match up predictor has Michigan at 85% chance at winning. Seems high to me. Wisconsin is never flashy and always well coached. Certainly will be the best team Michigan has faced so far. Or maybe Staee isn't very good and finally got exposed. Staee has a loss and it is perfect time for Michigan to get a huge statement win this weekend and build some momentum.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:07 PM ^
I think that the advanced stats don't think very much of LSU or MSU-- an only one of those was a truly impressive victory; that LSU game was a slug fest. I also agree with you; if Wisconsin can get to Speight, this could be a long game.
September 26th, 2016 at 4:55 PM ^
because (they say) they have two wins over top 10 teams. But they don't. They have two wins over teams that were in the top 10 when they played them because of under-informed preseason polls, but that aren't any more. Yes, some of that drop is due to their having lost to Wisconsin, but nobody who's watched LSU and MSU thinks they are top 10 caliber. LSU was overrated going in and has fired their long time, NC-winning head coach four games in. MSU was only rated that highly because of a win over an overrated Notre Dame team that just lost to Duke and home and just fired their DC.
Color me underwhelmed by Wisconsin so far. There is nothing that they are doing better than us. They will blitz like crazy and try to rattle Speight into bad throws and INTs. If that works, they might make a game of it. If it doesn't, they will go down hard.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^
It's nice to have a place to compare a bunch of stats head-to-head.
But the idea that the "stats won" percentage means a damn thing is stupid. I dare say that stats like scoring margin are a wee bit more predictive than, say, penalty yards, or opponent kickoff return yards per attempt. This treats them all equally.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^
Also doesn't account for how badly you beat someone in a category. I would say having Wisconsin's D 3rd down conversion percentage be 2X ours means more than us giving up 3 more penalty yards per game.
Also, our time of possession number seems artificially low this year due to great special teams plays. Short fields from blocks and returns. I wouldn't say that statistic is always telling to a team's performance.
September 26th, 2016 at 1:50 PM ^
Our stats against teams like Hawaii, UCF, and shitshow Penn State, and their stats against teams like MSU and LSU? Seems like you'll get good info out of that.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:55 PM ^
LSU and MSU are bad at football.
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September 26th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^
to not be too optimistic about this game...but I think Michigan gets after Wissy pretty good this Saturday.
September 26th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^
As long as Michigan plays a pretty mistake free-turnover free game, we win by at least several touchdowns. I don't think Wiscy is going to have a lot of success on offense against us. So, the game will be determined by how well our offense can attack their front 7. With Harbaugh/Fisch/Drevno at the controls, I like our chances there. Go Blue!
September 26th, 2016 at 1:57 PM ^
I think we an by more than anyone thinks. Coaching adjustments allow us to put it out of reach by early 4th qtr.
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September 26th, 2016 at 3:08 PM ^
Did you see which team was dead last statistically? Georgia State.
September 26th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^
CO is, but M's advantage notwithstanding, their 42nd to our 53rd SOS give me pause: this could be a tough game, and come down to our home field advantage, ours or their mistakes.
September 26th, 2016 at 4:23 PM ^
I don't know, man. I'm pretty concerned about that FG% disparity.
September 26th, 2016 at 4:42 PM ^
This from the Wisconsin football blog:
I'll save the Big Blue fans some time:
- No point in Wisconsin showing up.
- Michigan State's big win was over ND who stinks.
- LSU stinks.
- Michigan's big win was over Colorado so far.. who, of course, is really good.
- Never seen a DL like Michigan, everybody is NFL bound.
- Jabrill Peppers is the best defensive football player in the country and the best punt returner at any level. Ever.
- Wisconsin's WR will never be able to get open vs. Michigan's elite corners.
- Michigan's blitzing D is so advanced that Wisconsin's OL will just be blocking air.
- Wisconsin is starting a R-FR QB at Michigan? Good luck with that.
- Speight is basically Tom Brady but probably more accurate and with a stronger arm.
- Michigan's entire OL could probably start in the NFL right now.
- Michigan's offense is so balanced that Wisconsin will never be able to key on any part of it, so they'll continue to roll.
- Michigan's offense is better.
- Michigan's defense is better.
- Michigan's special teams are better.
- Michigan's coaching is better.
- Michigan is playing at home.
- Score: 44-9 Michigan.
These assertions are of course only slight exaggerations and are therefore essentially correct. Well, that one about Speight and Tom Brady might be a bit of a stretch.
Still, why a Wisconsin blogger would take so much time to state the obvious I don't know. I will say, however, that if Colorado wins its Saturday game against Oregon State --- which it should --- it'll be 4-1 and should move into the top 25, thus burnishing M's resume.
September 26th, 2016 at 5:12 PM ^
Are you missing the Wisconsin blog's sarcasm or am I missing your sarcasm?
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September 26th, 2016 at 7:23 PM ^
http://buckyville.yuku.com/topic/87620/Michigan-Game
Funny thing is I think these Badgers are prophetic and I agree with almost all of their bullet points. One man's /s is another man's...
September 26th, 2016 at 10:54 PM ^
What's this have to do with Kentucky?
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September 26th, 2016 at 5:25 PM ^
I feel like this is a game that will turn out like the BYU/Northwestern game last year
September 26th, 2016 at 5:51 PM ^
I was thinking the same. I sure hope so!
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September 26th, 2016 at 7:06 PM ^
It would be nice if they predicted win% against the spread. It'd be nice to have a free data point, you know, for us gamblers.
September 26th, 2016 at 7:10 PM ^
It would be nice if they predicted win% against the spread for a free data point, you know, for us gamblers.
September 26th, 2016 at 8:26 PM ^
It's a load of crap, but it's still a fun read.
September 26th, 2016 at 11:41 PM ^
Thanks for the link Marcus. Those are lovely data to chew on. Wish they tossed in national averages (or "index to average" for people that read between parentheses).