Myteamisbetter.com predicts Michigan over Wisconsin, stats comparison

Submitted by markusr2007 on

Just wanted to share this link which provides updated statistic comparison and prediction on upcoming football games.

I like it because you can get a head-to-head matchup based on statistics in each game facet and FBS rankings, etc. (rushing offense, passing offense, scoring defense, etc.)

Website here: http://myteamsbetter.com/#HOME

Michigan vs. Wisconsin stat comparison and prediction: http://myteamsbetter.com/#COMPARE_GAMES?teamPK=418&gamePK=18321&year=2016&statView=Key%20Stats&compareOption=ALL_OPPONENTS

Similar analyses for potential weekend upsets too.

rc15

September 26th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^

It gives Michigan a higher win probability against Wisconsin than MSU @ Indiana. I actually very much agree with this. Indiana will tear MSU up through the air and has a very good chance to win that game if they limit their turnovers.

56.5% for us seems low... Even if we were evenly matched teams, I would think home field advantage would give us more than 6.5%.

DrMantisToboggan

September 26th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^

If you enjoy Bill C and Football Outsider's stats (you should) they've got updated win probabilities after this weekend. 

Wisconsin and Iowa both hold a 79% chance for a win for Michigan, our lowest win probabilities before Ohio State. They give us a 56.6% chance to finish the year either 11-1 or 12-0. 

Michigan State's highest probability finish to the year is now 6-6, with 5-7 being more likely than 8-4. 

Notre Dame's highest probability finish to the year is now 5-7, with 4-8 being more likely than 6-6.

Fun stuff.

Ali G Bomaye

September 26th, 2016 at 1:59 PM ^

MSU is currently 2-1. Here's their remaining schedule:

  • @Indiana - likely win
  • BYU - likely win
  • Northwestern - likely win
  • @Maryland - tossup
  • Michigan - likely loss
  • @Illinois - likely win
  • Rutgers - likely win
  • Ohio State - likely loss
  • @Penn State - likely win

If they win all the "likely win" games and lose all the "likely lose" games, they'd be 8-3, with a game at Maryland as a tossup. However, I think it's more likely that they drop at least one of the "likely win" games than it is that they beat Michigan or OSU, just judging by the results at this point. They're probably not a 5-7 team, as you noted, but 7-5 or 6-6 seems within reach if they continue to play as badly as they did against Wisconsin.

 

RobSk

September 26th, 2016 at 4:38 PM ^

I'm thinking this:

  •  
  • @Indiana - loss - On the road, can MSU score enough?
  • BYU - likely win
  • Northwestern - likely win
  • @Maryland - likely win - Maryland can't score enough to win
  • Michigan - likely loss
  • @Illinois - likely win
  • Rutgers - likely win
  • Ohio State - likely loss
  • @Penn State - likely win

8-4. I really think their defense will be too good to lose to BYU/Maryland/PSU. I suspect Indiana just scores enough to overwhelm MSU's offense.

But I don't see it getting worse than 8-4. And seriously - Anybody that thinks they will roll over and die at their place against Michigan - I disagree. I think we win by 10ish, but I don't think it's a blowout like Wisconsin.

        Rob

RobSk

September 26th, 2016 at 4:44 PM ^

means they have to lose three out of four to @Maryland/BYU/@PSU/@Indiana.

Northwestern and Rutgers aren't in the conversation. They both suck far too much to even consider a road win against MSU.

I just don't see 6-6 happening under Dantonio with this schedule. Between coaching and defense, they are too good for that. I know they were 6-6 (+1 on bowl game) in 2012, but I think their schedule was harder that year, and man, they only lost to Michigan/OSU by a combined 3 stinking points.

      Rob

Ty Butterfield

September 26th, 2016 at 1:40 PM ^

ESPN match up predictor has Michigan at 85% chance at winning. Seems high to me. Wisconsin is never flashy and always well coached. Certainly will be the best team Michigan has faced so far. Or maybe Staee isn't very good and finally got exposed. Staee has a loss and it is perfect time for Michigan to get a huge statement win this weekend and build some momentum.

AA Forever

September 26th, 2016 at 4:55 PM ^

because (they say) they have two wins over top 10 teams. But they don't. They have two wins over teams that were in the top 10 when they played them because of under-informed preseason polls, but that aren't any more. Yes, some of that drop is due to their having lost to Wisconsin, but nobody who's watched LSU and MSU thinks they are top 10 caliber. LSU was overrated going in and has fired their long time, NC-winning head coach four games in. MSU was only rated that highly because of a win over an overrated Notre Dame team that just lost to Duke and home and just fired their DC.

Color me underwhelmed by Wisconsin so far. There is nothing that they are doing better than us. They will blitz like crazy and try to rattle Speight into bad throws and INTs. If that works, they might make a game of it. If it doesn't, they will go down hard.

Ali G Bomaye

September 26th, 2016 at 1:48 PM ^

It's nice to have a place to compare a bunch of stats head-to-head.

But the idea that the "stats won" percentage means a damn thing is stupid. I dare say that stats like scoring margin are a wee bit more predictive than, say, penalty yards, or opponent kickoff return yards per attempt. This treats them all equally.

rc15

September 26th, 2016 at 2:03 PM ^

Also doesn't account for how badly you beat someone in a category. I would say having Wisconsin's D 3rd down conversion percentage be 2X ours means more than us giving up 3 more penalty yards per game.

Also, our time of possession number seems artificially low this year due to great special teams plays. Short fields from blocks and returns. I wouldn't say that statistic is always telling to a team's performance.

True Blue Grit

September 26th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^

As long as Michigan plays a pretty mistake free-turnover free game, we win by at least several touchdowns.  I don't think Wiscy is going to have a lot of success on offense against us.  So, the game will be determined by how well our offense can attack their front 7.  With Harbaugh/Fisch/Drevno at the controls, I like our chances there.  Go Blue!

MGlobules

September 26th, 2016 at 3:37 PM ^

CO is, but M's advantage notwithstanding, their 42nd to our 53rd SOS give me pause: this could be a tough game, and come down to our home field advantage, ours or their mistakes.

 

Der Alte

September 26th, 2016 at 4:42 PM ^

This from the Wisconsin football blog:

I'll save the Big Blue fans some time:

  • No point in Wisconsin showing up.
  • Michigan State's big win was over ND who stinks.
  • LSU stinks.
  • Michigan's big win was over Colorado so far.. who, of course, is really good.
  • Never seen a DL like Michigan, everybody is NFL bound.
  • Jabrill Peppers is the best defensive football player in the country and the best punt returner at any level. Ever.
  • Wisconsin's WR will never be able to get open vs. Michigan's elite corners.
  • Michigan's blitzing D is so advanced that Wisconsin's OL will just be blocking air.
  • Wisconsin is starting a R-FR QB at Michigan? Good luck with that. 
  • Speight is basically Tom Brady but probably more accurate and with a stronger arm.
  • Michigan's entire OL could probably start in the NFL right now.
  • Michigan's offense is so balanced that Wisconsin will never be able to key on any  part of it, so they'll continue to roll. 
  • Michigan's offense is better.
  • Michigan's defense is better.
  • Michigan's special teams are better.
  • Michigan's coaching is better.
  • Michigan is playing at home.
  • Score: 44-9 Michigan. 

These assertions are of course only slight exaggerations and are therefore essentially correct. Well, that one about Speight and Tom Brady might be a bit of a stretch.

Still, why a Wisconsin blogger would take so much time to state the obvious I don't know. I will say, however, that if Colorado wins its Saturday game against Oregon State --- which it should --- it'll be 4-1 and should move into the top 25, thus burnishing M's resume.

leftrare

September 26th, 2016 at 11:41 PM ^

Thanks for the link Marcus. Those are lovely data to chew on. Wish they tossed in national averages (or "index to average" for people that read between parentheses).