My humble opinion on Urban Meyer to OSU

Submitted by MichiganMan2424 on

Urban Meyer is a very good coach. We all know that. OSU fans are giddy about the possibility of him being the next coach. That seems very likely. But lets dig into his career to see how good he actually was at Florida.

From '05-'10 when Meyer was coach at UF, his career record was 65-15, with 2 NCs. That's a stellar record. In the 4 years from '06-'09, he went 48-7 with 2 NCs. But during those 4 years, he had arguably the greatest college QB ever on his team, Tim Tebow. Tebow was the starter 3 of those years and contributed the one year he wasn't a starter. And that one year he wasn't a starter, 22 of the 24 starters were recruited by Ron Zook.

In his 2 years w/out Tebow, he went 16-8. If you include this year's team which is mostly his team as well, the record is 22-14, not as good as with Tebow.

Obviously it makes sense. When you have a great QB, you win lots of games. Urban was the one who recruited Tebow and also the one who developed him, so he gets all the credit in the world for that. But if you look at OSU now, Miller is good, but he's no Tebow. The current OSU teams aren't nearly as talented as his UF teams. If Meyer were to take over, the smart money would be on his record being more towards the middle but overall closer towards w/out Tebow than with.

So lets look at his offense's with and without Tebow.

From '06-'09, his offenses scored 36.5 PPG with Tebow. In the two years without Tebow, his offenses scored 29.4 PPG. That's a 7 point drop. To put it in perspective, this years Michigan team averaged 34.2 points a game, good for 23rd in the nation. If Urban were to coach a team that averaged 29.4 PPG this year, that would be good for 53rd, right in between South Florida and SDSU. So unless there's a Tebow on OSU's roster, the offense won't be as great as everyone hopes.

Now lets look at his co-ordinators. From 2005-2008, Dan Mullen was Urban's offensive co-ordinator. In that time, Meyer's teams averaged 36.2 points per game. The two years after, they averaged 31 points per game. That's a 5.2 PPG drop. While 31 is still a significant amount, if you look at the indvidual games, it looks worse. Against crappy teams they scored sometimes as much as 62, while being held to 7 against teams like Mississippi State at some times. 31 PPG would be good for 37th, in between Washington and Nevada.

(Keep in mind that I'm not including this years offensive numbers in either of the two above include this years team. If you wanted to include those, I'm sure those numbers would drop even further.)

I was going to do defensive numbers as well, but since Urban is an offensice coach, I am ignoring those. Those have more to do with the co-ordinators and the players. I will focus on one former D Co-ordinator in particular for a bit though. Greg Mattison. I'm doing so for two reasons. One is the fact that he used to work for Meyer at Florida and thus knows his offense, giving us some more ammo to use against Meyer. The second is the fact that Meyer called him "The best recruiter on the planet."

Mattison worked at Florida from '05-'07. Thus, the 3 years he would have an impact on recruiting would be the '06-'08 recruiting classes. Those three years, Florida's recruiting classes were 2nd, 1st, and 3rd respectively according to Rivals, and 2nd, 1st, and 12th according to Scout.. The next year in '09, after Mattison left, Florida fell out of the top 10 on Rivals and top 20 on Scout. Meyer still managed to recruit extremely well without Mattison, but with Mattison the classes were extraordinary. Meyer will be able to recruit well in Ohio, but odds are we don't see his classes rival the ones he had with Mattison.

This is a long-winded post. It all essentially comes down to this. Meyer, if hired, will be an upgrade over Fickell. But he won't be as effective at OSU as he was at Florida because A) he won't have a QB like Tebow; B) He won't have an offensive genius like Dan Mullen; and C) He won't be able to recruit as effectively without Mattison. Add that to the fact he has health issues and might not be as fiery as before, the fact that OSU has sanctions from the NCAA coming soon, and Urban's players were arrested everyday at UF and OSU has compliance and legal issues already, and I'm not buying into the hype. Also, we're 1-0 against him in his career.

Meyer will be better than Fickell. But will he be as good as he was at Florida? Probably not. Will he be as good as Tressel was at OSU? Once again, I'd bet no.

Tater

November 27th, 2011 at 11:06 PM ^

RR didn't "downplay the rivalry."  Despite the oft-parroted opinion, he did "get it," and he went out of his way to respect Michigan traditions.  RR knew how important the games were.  

His first year,l he had Threet and Sheridan at QB.  The second year, it was first-year starter Forcier.  Last year, it was first year starter Denard.  His starting lineups were younger than those of Ohio every year, too.

It's a lot easier to "get" the rivalry when your QB is a bona fide major college starter, he has started one of these games before, and your team is as experienced as the other team.  Ask Braxton Miller about that.

Michigan lost to Sparty this year.  Is there anyone stupid enough to think that it was because Brady Hoke "doesn't get it?"

I didn't think so.

 

go16blue

November 27th, 2011 at 8:28 PM ^

You lost me at co-ordinator.

Seriously, though, this is like saying "RR's offense sucks, he wouldn't even have been any good if not for Denard." Of course he would have been worse without Tebow... but he had Tebow. He recruited him, developed him, etc. Meyer is a very good coach, there's no denying that. He will probably do as well at OSU as Hoke will do at UM (considering how well Hoke is recruiting and coaching). Embrace it, this rivalry needs another 10 year war.

BlockM

November 27th, 2011 at 8:32 PM ^

Two things about these arguments:

1. Obviously anyone would be decent with Tebow. Recruiting kids like him and the rest of those Florida teams is a huge part of what makes him a great coach. That's going to continue at OSU. If you think Meyer can't use Braxton Miller in some pretty scary ways, you're kidding yourself.

2. There are way too many variables to have any idea what's going to happen with his teams in the coming years. His health, his family, recruiting, injuries, the crazy ways that footballs bounce will all have an effect on how he does as a coach. This is why we play the games, and while it's fun to just talk football and prognosticate about OSU's future, let's not try to read too much into every single little detail.

no joke its hoke

November 27th, 2011 at 8:33 PM ^

Who gives a fuck who their coach is?? They will and always will have good coaches. Deal with it! We have beat them before and we will kick Ohio's ass again. As long as he doesn't cheat I don't care if they dig up Woody Hayes dead ass and threw him on the sideline.

StraightDave

November 27th, 2011 at 8:35 PM ^

Didn't Miller say during his recruiting that he didn't want to play in a spread offense and was only looking at schools that would prepare him for the NFL?  

Zok

November 27th, 2011 at 8:37 PM ^

and that sounds good to me. Let Urban go after spread players and UM get more of the NFL types..especially OL. I really look forward to UM dominating in the trenches in the near future.

 

Urban will be good at OSU. anyone thinking otherwise is crazy, B Miller will also be very good for his O.

 

 

Zok

November 27th, 2011 at 9:27 PM ^

I just think he and Hoke would look at WR, QB, and OL differently and  potential recruits will look at the schools differently. Hoke will recruit his style of players and having OSU not going after that type will help UM. Meyer will not go after the same type of RBs, QBs, WRs, or OL. The RB issues at UF have been well documented. And 1 hybrid RB at of his entire career does not sound like a good plug on your side, neither does Riley Cooper.  UM has better quality than that virtually every year. 

sarto1g

November 27th, 2011 at 9:39 PM ^

better quality than an nfl receiver?  every year?  Who was the last Michigan receiver to land in the NFL?  I'll give you 5 seconds to guess...

 

...Adrian Arrington

Frankly none of our receivers on the squad now would make it in the NFL as it stands right now. 

In addition, ever heard of Jeff Demps?  Don't sell Urban so short.

sarto1g

November 27th, 2011 at 8:41 PM ^

Dude won at Bowling Green and at Utah.  There's no denying he's a good coach.  Trying to discredit him is a fool's errand.  I like the direction our program is heading.  If Hoke is as good as we think he is, then we'll win games against OSU (Meyer or not). 

Sarasota13

November 27th, 2011 at 8:43 PM ^

Meyer was a good coach with outstanding assistants.  However, those assistants left and he left the Florida program in shambles (and recruits looking for other programs on short notice)..  His national championship teams were ready made from Zook with the finishing Tebow touch. 

He is a good coach, but overrated.  He went all over the country with ESPN looking at  and learning from other programs.  So, we will see how he does at OSU.  He will add a touch of class to that program.

 

markusr2007

November 27th, 2011 at 9:08 PM ^

there have been many successful coaches who have attempted "comebacks" that have blown up in their faces: Lou Holtz, Bobby Ross, Howard Schnellenberger, Steve Spurrier.

They all thought the grass was greener some places else.

Might be different for an Ohio State Urban Mire, but I doubt it. It's actually very difficult to win NCs at multiple schools.  Not impossible. Just historically unlikely.

Other than that my view about Urban Meyer and OSU is this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=angi1vwUkQc

TartanAlex

November 27th, 2011 at 8:51 PM ^

104-23 in a three-school career kinda makes it obvious that Meyer is more than just the guy fortunate enough to have Tim Tebow. He's been a success everywhere; he will be a success at OSU too. No reason to suppose otherwise.

Doesn't mean he will have a Tresselesque record in the Game but it's dumb to try and kid yourself into thinking he's not "really" that good a coach. The facts suggest he knows what he's doing.

thethirdcoast

November 27th, 2011 at 8:52 PM ^

...but Pat Forde has an awesome takedown of Meyer here:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/news?slug=pf-forde_meyer_credibility_urban_myth_112711

 

The “Urban myth” line has been worn to a nub with Urban Meyer, but it’s never been more fitting than now.

Here’s the mythology Meyer has tried to sell us: that a certifiable coaching freak could make a clean break from football for a well-rounded, healthy lifestyle and more time with the kids.

MichiganTeacher

November 27th, 2011 at 9:02 PM ^

I think he'll underestimate the B1G.

Everyone talks about how the B1G is down, blah blah blah. There's some truth to that. But not nearly as much truth as many people think. Case in point: preseason, lots of folks picked Nebraska to stomp the B1G. Instead Nebraska lost to Northwestern - at home. And they got demolished by UM and U-upside-down-M. Same thing happened to Penn State, more or less, when they first joined.

I will not be surprised if Urban has a lot of success at Ohio. But I think he'll be surprised that he doesn't have even more success.

GustaveFerbert

November 27th, 2011 at 9:02 PM ^

Know for certain whether or not he will have good assistants.  One would assume that he gets them at Ohio if Ohio pays some money.  

Why are folks caring if Meyer is a good coach.   The Big 10 is better if both UM and Ohio are top teams (see Bo Woody 10 year war).   

 

 

beevo

November 27th, 2011 at 9:04 PM ^

I seriously hope this is the last thread on tsiO's future coach.  Here is my approach (if anyone gives a shitake mushroom):

Meyer is a big name and will bring national attention to the B1G. This is good.

Good coaches bring good recruits.  This is good.

Good coaches force other schools to adjust their coaching/improve their coaching.  This is good.

Look at the B1G's contribution to the SEC coaching lineup over the last couple of years.  Former Sparty coach hauls in 2 NCs and has Bama a Top 10 annually.  Former Michigan player and assistant coach, Les Miles is on the verge of his second NC at LSU.  Former Buckeye assistant coach (graduate, I believe) Urban Meyer wins 2 NCs at Florida.  That is 6 National Championships earned by coaches that were developed in the B1G. 

Hopefully, Penn State pulls in a quality coach as well as Illinois.  It can only help the conference.  We already have quality coaches at Michigan, Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Wisconsin.  Let's add some more.

hfhmilkman

November 27th, 2011 at 9:07 PM ^

Urban Meyer on offense is a spread guy.  The one vulnerability of a spread offense is it really depends on the QB getting it.  A pro offense can get by with a game manager.  If a spread does not have a QB who can make the reads it blows up.  Look at Brian Kelly and ND.  Though Hendrix might be the right fit next year.  Miller appears to me to be a perfect fit for Meyer's spread.  For those who insist that a spread QB cannot stick, last I looked Alex Smith and Tim Tebow were still on NFL rosters.  For every spread QB who does not work, I can show you three proset QB's who also bombed.  So I do not believe system really matters unless your playing at a military academy.

For those who continue to arrogantly profess pro is superior to spread, you will continue to be disapointed.  I'm not saying a spread is always better, but it is at least as good.  A number of very succesful teams like NE, GB, and NO are very content to have the majority of their snaps out of the shotgun.  I am of the opinion any staff should shape their team to the talent they have.  To refuse a system that might fit a team is hubris. 

Regarding what OSU's defense might be under Meyer there will always be a core of players who will want to play for OSU even if the Dcoordinator is Donald Duck.  OSU also has very deep pockets.  UM is very fortunate that Mattison is willing to be our coordinator for much less then what he could command on the open market.  Meyer will have a lot more money to recruit a staff.  If Meyer's head is in it, OSU will do very well.  We should get a nice head start if the sanctions are severe.

His Dudeness

November 27th, 2011 at 9:08 PM ^

Urban is a great coach. Not good, great. If we believe our coach and players can beat their coach and players then we are at least in for a hell of a ride over the next half-decade or so. Get some? Get some.

 

 

Wendyk5

November 27th, 2011 at 9:10 PM ^

There is an interesting parallel here between us and them. Back when Tressel was hired, he was a not-very-well-known Div 1-AA coach who came in and immediately understood the importance of the rivalry. He took on a coach who had won a NC (Lloyd) and did better than anyone could have dreamed. I'm sure at the time, our fans felt the way about Tressel that their fans felt about the Brady Hoke hire almost a year ago. (Who is this guy? What a joke!)

 

Now here we are. OSU is looking at hiring a NC-winning coach. And in the meantime, our "nobody" from Ball State and SDSU just won The Game and a 10 - 2 record in his first season.  OSU fans think the Urban Meyer pedigree will easily win over the nobody from Ball State. You'd think they would have learned. 

TimRoss

November 27th, 2011 at 9:23 PM ^

I think you could apply all of the same logic of past trends and records, recruting, ppg averages and so on to Hoke before he was hired. Oh...wait...I think someone did do that...And yet; 40-34, 10-2, potential BCS bowl, outside shot at number 1 recruiting class, etc. What statistical analysis would have predicted this before Hoke was hired?  

Meyer can coach. He's won everywhere he's been. TSIO will spare no expense to support him. It's gonna be fun. Two coaches with an intense understanding of the rivalry will hopefully restore it to the competitve balance of it's glory years. Or at the very worse a 1990's redux. 

(And I'm not against statistical analysis in general, I just don't think that parsing numbers looking to allay fears of a number one rival hiring a great coach is the best use of it.)

ribby

November 27th, 2011 at 9:24 PM ^

is no  guarantee of future results. Bruce, Cooper, and Tressel didn't exactly have Urban Meyer like credentials before they went to Ohio. I wonder if the Big Ten is not as friendly to celebrity coaches as some other conferences, due to recruiting to cold weather states, ethics, etc.

 

Different topic, and I haven't searched exhaustively, but why on earth would Ohio hire a head football coach with initials UM?

Amaizeinblue

November 27th, 2011 at 10:19 PM ^

Not trying to be ignorant here, but didn't every single OSU fan say the same things about Hoke? They said he'd never be a good coach, he was this and he was that and what did he go and do? His first season he's brought the program back to national relevance. How about we just stop beating this dead horse and see how it all plays out?

BlueinLansing

November 27th, 2011 at 11:12 PM ^

hearing the same people who thought the spread wouldn't work at Michigan get hard ons for Urban's offense at Ohio.

 

Herbstreit has already laid the foundation for overblown buckeye expectations by calling big ten defenses scout teams.