MSU/UM Breakdown from a Spartan Perspective

Go to state!

I don't think our d-line has shown that it can just dominate for 60 minutes. The hope is that we'll get enough Hulk Smash plays in the right situations to force some turnovers and then just generally contain Bell et al.

As for Denard, well, that's the question, isn't it? When he's not throwing the ball directly to the other team he's well nigh unstoppable. See Northwestern for a convenient object lesson. I don't see UM putting up 45 against MSU, but I also don't see UM scoring 17 either.

My prediction: 31-27 UM.

State will play a good game on Saturday, and on paper, your defense is an edge, and our offense is an edge.

Except for those rare years when one team was obviously not competitive, such as Michigan the past three years, the game outcomes have ridden more on emotion and how the teams react to the ups and downs of the game than anything else.

I wouldn't call the MSU O-line a joke, and frankly, it's obvious Michigan hasn't really been tested by a powerful D line.

I think this is going to be a tough game for Michigan to win. Clearly our coaching staff agrees.

I think Michigan will win because I'm going to wear my lucky socks.

I feel this assessment is accurate.  I'm curious how much our DL looking really good lately has to do with our opposition's quality.  Furthermore, I'm curious how much MSU's OL looking good last week has to do with OSU's sad sad state of affairs right now.  At this point we know the following:

UM has played one very solid defense so far and was shut down for three of the four quarters in the game.

UM has played one good offense so far (SDSU seems to have imploded) and gave up 24 points in the first half before shutting them out in the second.

MSU has played one good offense so far and lost handily, while holding them to a relatively low yardage total.

MSU has played one or two good defenses and has been shut down by both of them.

Essentially, both these teams have been tested very little, and at least for large chunks of games have not held up too well at times.

The irrational Spartan fans killed him before he could finish his post!!!! Gasp!!

So, the only way Michigan wins is if MSU fails horribly? I'm sorry, but I just don't see it that way. Most of this board thinks your O-Line is a joke, because it is. MSU scored 1 TD against OSU and you act like it was a coming out game for your O-Line. They also managed 1 TD against the only other BCS team they played (Notre Dame). Also, the only reason that ND only put up 275 yards against Sparty was because they played on a half a field the whole game. MSU had no ability to pin them deep because they couldn't move the ball.

You are mistaking this team as the same UM team from the past 3 years.  I hope the MSU team thinks the same thing. I can guarantee you one thing. 10-13 points is not going to win this game. 

Here is what MSU did against OSU's defense:

10 Points

321 Total Yards

71 Rushing Yards @ 2.3 ypc

Cousins went 20/32 for 250 with 1 TD and 2 Ints

Here is what Nebraska did against OSU's defense:

34 Points

423 Total Yards

232 Rushing Yards @ 4.5 ypc

Plus a 16/22 for 191 with 2 TDs and 1 Int perfromance from Taylor Martinez 

So you can qualify MSU's numbers against OSU any way you want, but to me they do not indicate that the Oline "played pretty well." The rushing number were not good at all, and Martinez almost had a better day throwing against OSU than Cousins did (depsite only one sack against him).

I think people look at Michigan's sack numbers and don't think they get good pressure on the QB. In reality, we have made almost every QB we have played get happy feet in the second half. If we can do the same against Cousins we will be ok.

The biggest matchup IMO is Michigan O vs Sparty D. If Michigan scores 28+ I think we win the game. If we struggle to break 20 we lose. If we're in the mid-20s it could go either way. Not super inciteful I know, but its only Monday! 

Damn man, prepare to get Denarded.

He probably pressed "save," not realizing that that meant that the post would be made rather than something he could revisit later and finish without posting.

You go into "prevent offense" when up by a touchdown?

MSU's defense is good, but I think that at best MSU will match NW's ability to stop our ground game.  No way that they hold us to less than 3.6 YPC.  There will be opportunities to attack downfield and if Denard gives the guys in white a chance I think that our receivers (particularly Hemingway) win those 1v1 battles.

As for the other side of the ball, MSU will likely get some quality gains on the outside, but up the middle is a no-go.  This is just not sustainable and without a consistent running game Cousins will have to throw more.  I'd say he will have a solid but unspectacular game.  Something in the ballpark of 250 yds, 7 YPA, 2 TDs, 2 INTs.

This game will be close, but MSU just doesn't look clutch like they were last year.  I think that's the deciding factor.  The fact that MSU won the turnover battle against ND and lost by 18 makes me question their ability to capitalize when it matters most.

I do think this game could be decided at that location.  Our D-line vs. MSU's O-line.  Whichever team wins that matchup, by however small a margin, will make a huge stride in winning that game.

If either of those 2 spots "dominates" the other, that school will win comfortably.

If Denard is making his reads and hitting his guys, we're going to win handily.  There will be opportunities in the passing game because MSU is going to stack the box to make sure we can't run the ball like we want to.  

Those are big "ifs," though.  So far he's really only down that against Minnesota, for one half against NW and one quarter against ND.  

Sorry, I'm not buying this "really good" defense. Look at who they have played!!!! The only good team they played, they lost and allowed 31 points. 

We have to be able to contain Sparty's DLine.  Worthy, at DT, is going against Omameh and Barnum who are good Guards but will have their hands full with the 305lber.  Gholston comes off the edge and will face Huyge/Koger--although, I don't expect anyone to come off the edge and sack Denard.  It's just not gonna happen.  Denard's too elusive.  Hoover comes back and I would expect him to be on the field, opposite Gholston.  That means he's going up against Lewan.  It's his first game back after missing some time.  I'm guessing he won't be in great game shape.  I'm gonna confidently give the edge to Donkey rider, provided he keeps his cool and doesn't let the emotion of the game and the hostile territory affect his good judgement.

The LB corp isn't even close to Sparty2010.  Bullough can make a million tackles this year, for all I care.  They aren't at or behind the line of scrimmage.  He and the rest of the LBs can't hold Banks and Gordon's jock.  As Brian (or whoever it was) pointed out earlier this week, Sparty was so unafraid of OSU's passing game, they could move the safties up right behind the LBs.  That won't happen this week and that means the LB corp will have to do more of the work themselves.  Good luck with that.

As far as MSU's DBs, they are opportunistic and if Denard goes all Demetrius Brown, we'll be in trouble.  However, I don't anticipate that.

I truly believe we have the tools, the confidence, and the coaching to march in there and control the game. 

So, you're saying that the Michigan State defense...this "opportunistic" bunch is the best Michigan has seen this year and will be the difference in the game. 

Easy tiger. The way I see it, Sparty hasn't seen an offense capable of blowing.shit.up the way that Denard et. al are going to on Saturday. Many enjoyed watching Brian Kelly get his revenge after last year's field goal debacle and all he did was expose your defense as average or worse. 

I'm taking the good guys, yes, the Michigan Wolverines and rolling 38 - 17. Raback that.

Cue the sadness in East Lansing. 

A few points on MSU's Oline performance against OSU:

1) You say MSU did not give up a sack, but they gave up a loss of 12 yards by Cousin fumble recovered by OSU.  The point is OSU got pressure on Cousins and Cousins turned the ball over 3 times.

2) You say that MSU had 4.5 YPC until the 4th quarter.  This is most certainly not true.  In the first 3 quarters MSU had 20 carries for 58 yards or 2.9 YPC.

3) During the Spartans "prevent offense" utilized in the 4th quarter - Cousins threw 2 interceptions.  I think this prevent offense thing is an excuse for MSU not being able to close OSU out right away.

Sparty's bile and hatred will keep them in the game until about halfway through the third quarter, when it will start to slip away.  By the fourth quarter, the game will be one huge "SPARTY: NOOOOO" monent waiting to happen.

I expect at least three blatant personal fouls against Sparty in the last ten minutes of this game.

Personally, I think Northwestern has a better offense than Michigan State.  I think Persa will be the best QB we face unless we play Wisconsin in the B1G Championship game.  Also, their OL isn't decimated like MSUs, and we were still able to get good pressure on Persa.

The key to this game is how Denard and theo ffense handle the Michigan State defense.  If they can move the ball, and not turn it over.  Play a similar game plan to the 2nd half of Northwestern and what we did with Minnesota, we should win this game.  Denard in that hostile environment against a good defense needs to get in a groove early, and needs the short and easy passes to calm him down.

My prediction is Blue 31-24.

Really ...We shall see...

on offense for MSU to handle.  If Sparty stops one thing, Borges finds another that works.  We've shown a LOT of stuff for MSU to prepare for, and there's more to come.  Gametime adjustments?  Yeah, we've got those. 

Denard will have a similar day vs. MSU that he had against NW, except perhaps more rushing yardage.  NW defense faces the spread in practice every day, and therefore was able to shut down a lot of what we like to do, at least for a half.  Good luck with that, Sparty.  I think we keep their D off balance and hold Sparty to 24 or so. 

Keep the turnover battle at least even, and we win.