Moving on to MSU on Tuesday
I think GR3 has tired legs. He's trying but he just doesn't have the same lift he had earlier in the season. It was pretty apparent on a couple layups yesterday that would have been dunks a few weeks ago.
The other team's power forward every night isn't helping. He's a natural wing man and he needs to be utilized for his athleticism. I think that's the reason for his struggles, as well as why guys like Max B. are getting more PT.
Max has played...admirably, but imagine if we had Morgan against wisc and could run the Morgan/mcgary lineup to spell gr3.
This, this, and so much this.
I do think that Max should start overtaking Horford on the depth chart. I think he was much better than Horford yesterday.
I think they'll all get some much needed rest after the State game. As for GRIII, perhaps he could go on the Novak Djokovic gluten free diet in preparation for the tournaments.
is like closing the barn door after the horses get out.
The game on Tuesday isn't life or death. Even if we lose, we'll still have a pretty good shot at a share of the title if we win out. This isn't like football where you have to basically go undefeated. If we finish 14-4 we'll probably be Big Ten champs, a #1 seed in the BTT (due to overall record) and a #1 seed for sure in the NCAA tournament.
While GR3 might have tired legs, I think his lack of production is due to the pace at which Michigan plays. He is at his best at this stage of his basketball career in the open court. The majority of his buckets come from being set up by others. His lack of production is because Michigan is playing tougher teams who take care of the basketball and play tough half court defense. While I'd like to see Michigan press more and force the pace, that's like hoping Brady Hoke wakes up one day and sees the benefits of a no huddle offense. Don't take that comment as saying that Hoke and Belein aren't excellent coaches, but rather that even the greats have imperfections in how they adapt to different personnel.
Have we played at a markedly slower pace these last few games? Maybe against Wisconsin, but definitely not against Indiana (where GRIII had two points on 1-6 shooting).
I think we are missing Morgan. I wonder what the prognosis is on him playing soon.
it just seems that at times he's a bit soft and passive. there's a reason he's on sports center for espn's number 1 play in their top 10. in that situation no matter what you foul. belein said that so as soon he the guy catches the ball wtf is levert doing??? i understand he's a freshman but the more i watch him i just see someone who lacks aggression and is a bit passive. i hate to say this bit he looks soft as charmin too.
You can retire for the day. Thanks for cluing us in about Levert, though. Maybe you can give him lessons? Remind us of your credentials, would you?
Not guarding the inbounder allows him to deliver a perfect strike to the receiver, who, as a result, is able to catch the ball running in full stride.
I would probably guard the inbounder as well (depending on personelle), but there are reasons for not guarding him. It's not like Beilein broke an obvious coaching rule. There are reasons to leave McGary in the back:
It prevents the inbounder from really becoming part of the play since he could make a pass to a player coming back to the ball and immediately follow it - hook and ladder style - beating the defender that was guarding the inbounds pass.
Plus, McGary in the back is a safety valve in case another defender does get beat over the top - if that happens you've given them 2.4 seconds to get an unguarded look off.
Plus, the guy had the ability to run the baseline, thus an on-ball defender's effectiveness would have been limited.
I am of the opinion of always guarding the inbounder, however I can maybe see not guarding him with a two point lead but a three point lead just seems like common sense to me to guard the inbounder.
If you are planning to foul immediately, it makes perfect sense. Then you have five defenders to cover the four offensive players, so it's doubtful any one of them can get free.
The big issue I have with the play was that we put McGary under our basket when he could have been out double-teaming someone.
A safety valve under the basket with a three point lead makes ZERO sense.
with 2.4 seconds remaining. There's virtually no chance the opponent gets a 3 pt shot off, misses, gets the rebound and still has time to get another 3 pt shot off. Instead of having a man advantage by not guarding the in-bounder, you take that advantage away by putting McGary in the paint.
Once Burst is in the act of shooting, I say you let him shoot. I'd rather he take one from there than three from the line.
Unfortunately it didn't sound great. Beilein told him, 'you're not going to get better if we don't just shut you down.' That was Friday.
With Robinson, he looks tired. What is taking Morgan so long? He needs to play effective for us to win. Burke seems to lack that explosive first step which prohibits him from getting past good defenders, thus limiting our penetration, we are a jump shooting team. In order for us to win, we are going to have to hit at least 10 three's and get out in transition. Our half court offensive sets have been brutal. We need this win but are going to have to play our best game all year to win.
/woke up to a text from a uw alum friend...fucking dick that guy
//fuck state too, Go Blue! (baby steps)
him a similar text when Wisconsin is unable to play up to their seed in the tournament. I've heard that officiating crews don't have to share one whistle when they reffing tourney games.
Oh without a doubt.
Stupid immortal vampire, bo Ryan.
It needs to be rescheduled. It seems as though to win a road game the visitor has to put it out of the reach of the officiating before the final 5 minutes.
I also agree that GRIII looks tired. In Burke's defense he has been guarded by hell of a defensive players.
It just seems like the team in general is tired, Burke is missing that explosive step, even yesterday there was times when he had a bigger guy on him and he couldn't get around them. I would say that Tuesday is the biggest game of the year for us, it's a must win, whatever it takes.
5 hour energy for everyone!
Beating Sparty on Tuesday comes down to two things, GRIII and Stauskas both playing good games or one of them playing a great game to go with the usual expected contributions of Burke, Hardaway, and now, McGary. It is going to be rough though. As much as I don't want to admit it, Sparty is playing the best ball in the conference right now. It isn't always pretty. They don't have many (or maybe any) 20 point victories but they have lots of guys that get it done for them. They play good defense and the scoring can be picked up by the usual suspects (Appling, Harris) but can also be picked up by Dawson, Nix, and Payne. Michigan must show the same type of balance with our main 5 guys (Burke, Hardaway, McGary, Stauskas, Robinson) to win this game. I think Burke and Hardaway must each score 15-20 and the other three must each get 8-15 or it is going to be another agonizing road loss for us. Go Blue!!!
However the biggest reason GR3 has struggled is because other teams have dictated their pace of the game. GR3 struggles offensively in the half court set, he doesn't create much for himself, has no post game, so is relegated at this juncture to stand on the 3 point line. When he is effective, it is because we are scoring in transition, or hitting 3's. for us to beat state, we will have to be hitting 3's, about 10 of them. They are playing the best in the B1G right now because they have cut down on TO's and play real good defense. They have become very disciplined, we need a signature win for confidence, this is the biggest game of our season right now.
Expect the refs to call everything MSU's way, its gonna happen.
Really? This is such a cop out statement
It's not though. It's 80-90% true. The sooner we all realize this (for road games in general) the sooner we can quit the bitching and focus on more reasons why this team is struggling; it ain't because of the guys in stripes (well, I guess except for the ones wearing the red and white striped pants).
These last three games go so much more differently if Morgan is playing
I don't see any point in harping on Morgan's injury. I think Michigan is a better team with him but Duke is a better team with Ryan Kelly, and I am sure Sparty believes they are a better team with Travis Trice. The bottom line is that injuries are a part of the game. I wish Michigan was at full-strength. I am sure Sparty does too. Michigan just needs Stauskas and Robinson to play well and we will have an excellent chance to win the game. If they don't, it will be more of what we have seen in our other 3 losses.
"I have come to the conclusion that the road game environment totally shuts him down. Scoring 2 points against Indiana and 2 points against Wisky." - from the OP
I broke out Robinson's stats like this to test this:
Glenn Robinson III
|HOME||ROAD LOSSES||ROAD WINS|
Avg. Pts / Game
Consider also that the defensive efficiency of the teams to which we lost:
Ohio State, 18th overall in Div. I - 0.873
Indiana, 11th overall in Div. I - 0.866
Wisconsin, 23rd overall in Division I - 0.882
Compare this to the in-conference road wins:
Northwestern, 157th in defensive efficiency - 0.970
Minnesota, 65th overall - 0.922
Illinois - 180th overall - 0.981
You can see the same trend to varied degrees in the stats of several players on our team. It's not the road per se, but highly efficient defenses that can disrupt the flow of the game, which seem to be troublesome for us. I think part of that is experience and should moderate in time, or at least I would think so.
Yeah judging by the stat sheet you brought seems to say that its really against highly ranked teams which has been so far, the loudest places he has played. Thanks for those stats.
Now that is a post. Well done.
All we need you to do now is somehow convince Robinson (and probably Stauskas, too) that they're not no longer "green" freshmen, but that they can play over the facts that 1) the season is long; 2) their legs are no longer fresh 3) Big Ten road arenas tend to be hostile and intimidating.
We most likely do need at least one of them to not only show up but to be a major contributor for us to find a way to win on Tuesday. I, for one, believe that we will.
Much has been made of GRII's disapperance over the past few games but what just as glarring has been almost the complete evaporation of Stauskas's 3 point shot. Yesterday he was 1-5 and with Michigan up four he had a wide, wide, WIDE open look from the top of the key that barely hit the front rim. That's the dagger right there (we go up 7 with under 3 mintues to play) and he didn't get close to hitting it.
Also, I think Biefeldt has been outplaying Horford and seems to provide the same energy that McGary brings when he hits the floor. Big fella might not be the most graceful oxen out there but man he is hustling for every loose ball and contests every shot near him. Can somebody please explain why he wasnt on the inbounder yesterday?
To win at State (and I think we will) we need to accept the fact that the game will be as physical as the game we just played and adjust our play accordingly. That means more minutes IMO for the bigs McGary, Biefeldt and Horford and maybe a few less for GRIII & Stauskas.
Stauskas' three point shot has only disappeared on the road. He's 4/15 in the last three road games and 8/14 in the last three home games.
Edit: To take this further... In all conference games he is 7/29 on the road and 13/26 at home.
In Big Ten play, Stauskas is shooting 36.4% (20-55). His excellent overall 47.6% figure is inflated by his red-hot non-conference shooting.
This isn't Gavin Groninger territory - 36% is still respectable - but I'm hoping we aren't seeing the "real" Stauskas in league play. Given that he's struggling on defense, we probably need him to be above a 40% 3PT guy to be a net positive. To his credit he did rebound well (7 boards) yesterday.
In the three road losses to OSU, IU, and Wisconsin, Stauskas played 96 minutes. He went 5-20 overall and 2-13 for the three. To have played that many minutes in critical games and have all of 12 points total ain't getting it done. I'm sure that Nik is going to be a nice player for UM in his career, and as a pure freshman it's only natural that he's going to struggle in road pressure environments, but all the Game Blouses hype is more than a bit premature. The fact that some fans earlier in the season were saying he is as good a pure shooter as Glen Rice, or better, is ridiculous. It's like seeing a freshman RB get 100 yds against a MAC team and then pronouncing him better than Tyrone Wheatley.
This team should have a chip on their shoulder come tuesday. This is a brutal stretch that we have played through that no other team in the country has endured. This team will steal one somehow and to come in the hands of State would make it that much SWEETER. We are a due to play a very good road game. The other three we've stunk it up something has to give eventually. Keep in mind sparty has won 9 of their last ten only loss at IU.
Every B1G team has or will have a stretch just as hard. We have played and lost to 3 of the 4 other best teams on the road. This is our last chance for a big road win. If we lose, we are probably not going to be champs. If we beat Sparty both meetings, we probably knock them out.
I think we lose sight of the fact that this team has lost a total of 3 games on the road by a total of less than 15 points while starting 2 freshmen and relying almost exclusively on freshmen off the bench. Two of these losses have come while the guy referred to as their defensive glue and one of the upperclassmen has been out. And this says nothing about the brutality of this stretch of the schedule.
I really don't think the team has regressed but rather is struggling with defenses that are limiting their transition opportunities and preventing them to put together the mini-runs that had become their staple. Is Robinson tired or is his play a consequence of being lost in a half-court grind it out offense that misses the action of their best pick and roll player and big defender (Morgan) opening up lanes and rebounding opportunities?
Having said this, I'm concerned about Tuesday. Give JB time to prepare and he is as good of a coach as any in the country but they don't have that luxury. Instead they will take a mentally fatigued team (if not physically) to East Lansing and it seems likely without Morgan. Michigan is a pretty team to watch when they can get out and run but Tuesday is going to require that they show that they they have some street-fight in them. They need some hate in their game, some bloody-faced Novak and some get-the-fuck-off-my-court Morris attitude.
come from experience, and we have to get it through our heads that our freshmen from McGary to Stauskas to GRob3 to Van Wert are going to have to learn how to play college ball and are going to experience growing pains. You lose two games by two three pointers that go in for them and not for you, one on a definite miracle 1 in 50 or more shot, and all the analysts come out and question their coaching, their work ethic, their mental attitude.....Get real, the top 5 teams all went 0 for whatever on the road this week....Home court refereeing advantage is huge....Beilein had it right in his post game comments, question is what did we learn as a team and as individual players from the last two games. Either we get better and learn, or we keep pounding our heads into the wall and suffer more losses.
We are going to have to play a lot better to win on Tuesday. In particular, that means we cannot have a 5 minutes scoreless stretch at the end of the game like we did against Wisco.
I think if we play a beat it up physical game with low possessions we will lose by 5-10.
If we can get the game up tempo a bit and turn it into a shooting contest then I'd say it's a toss up.
If MSU is turnover prone and we can score 15-20 points on the fast break, I like our chances.
I'd give the above scenarios about a 40%, 40% and 20% chance respectively.
Horford sucked real bad yesterday to start the game... Morgan would have given us a victory
Didnt play Saturday, I doubt he plays 2 days later.
If we make our layups and bunnies, I don't see us losing of tuesday night.
Make the bad taste of the Wiscy game disappear with a huge win in EL.
Get er done!
Would anyone else like to see us throw in some more zone defense? I feel like we used to use it before to mask our athletic deficiencies in years past, now it seems like we use it to change up looks when we get down big. I think this team has the athleticism to wreak havoc and cause some frustration/turnover transition opportunities. Also, we suck at blocking out in man to man situations, so the rebounding dropoff wouldn't be too drastic.
Sorry, it's really hard to imagine a win in East Lansing the way this team has played against tough competition on the road. It will be the craziest atmosphere they have seen, as well as the most agressive and physical (dirty) play. My guess is an OSU/IU type start but our mild comeback won't make it as competitive as those two were.
Yep, you are the voice of reason. Based on what we've seen so far this season, there is really no reason to believe we'll beat MSU on the road. The game will probably unfold exactly as Cold War says: fall way behind early, comeback, then lose. I think we'll lose by 8-12 points.
I can't help but feel a bit panicky, I know we're 21-3 which, who would've thought I'd be complaining about that record, but we're also losers of two of our last 3.
- Where the hell is GRIII? We'll be playing in a hostile environment (calls, crowd, etc.) so he's going to need to step up. It's no coincidence he's disappeared the past few games and the team hasnt' been performing as well
I don't see us winning Tuesday though. Is it possible? Absolutely, of course, but based on how the team has performed the past 4-5 games I just don't see it happening. That loss to Wisconsin also likely cost us the conference (basing that statement off of Indiana's evisceration of OSU yesterday) but alas, we must move on.
To me, this game has make-or-break season implications to me. I'll expect we have a great chance of beating both MSU and Indiana at home, if we pick up this road win my outlook won't be nearly as bleak as it currently is because IU and MSU have harder schedules than we do.
Overall, I think we lose by 11-16 points. MSU is playing their best bball right now, and they're a tough, tough team. We are not a tough team, we have fallen behind by 15 and 22 in two of our road games against the best in the Big Ten and dropped a game we should have won in Madison. We need to realize what we are: a good team that's fun to watch but reliant on freshman.