Morris draft status update

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June 20th, 2011 at 3:50 PM
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AC1997
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Joined: 09/19/2008
MGoPoints: 888
Morris draft status update

John Hollinger has published (insider only) his draft rater at ESPN.com:

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2011/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=draftrater-110620

This is a statistically based predictor of NBA potential that he uses to create his draft board.  Hollinger has Morris rated as #33 and his numerical rating suggests he's most likely going to end up a fringe rotation player.  He's the #12 perimeter player rated in this system.

Hollinger does acknowledge some limitations in his system, but most of those limitations wouldn't help Morris' score because he played a lot of minutes, was not a one-and-done player, and was not an enigmatic post player that is hard to predict.  Last week Chad Ford had Morris rated as a Tier-5 prospect somewhere between 21-33 in the draft. 

I sincerely hope that Morris gets picked somewhere in the first round and is able to play his way into a regular role with a team.  I wish him nothing but the best.  That being said, I still think that Morris would have moved up the draft boards if he stayed another year even with some other stars keeping their names out of the draft this year.  I also remain skeptical that there will be an NBA season at all. 

AC-1997

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June 20th, 2011 at 4:55 PM | STOP YELLING AND GET A (Score:2 Normal)
BlueDragon
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Joined: 11/14/2010
MGoPoints: 16812

STOP YELLING AND GET A THICKER SKIN ALREADY.

Abort, Retry, Fail?

June 20th, 2011 at 5:56 PM | I THINK IT'S BECAUSE HE NEEDS (Score:4 Normal)
I Bleed Maize N Blue
I Bleed Maize N Blue's picture
Joined: 09/27/2008
MGoPoints: 5053

I THINK IT'S BECAUSE HE NEEDS TP FOR HIS BUNGHOLE.

Michigan Resurgent?  Michigan Resurgent!

The beatings will continue until the uniforms improve!

June 20th, 2011 at 6:38 PM | Terrelle Pryor only helps (Score:0 Overrated)
June 20th, 2011 at 3:59 PM | FWIW there have been twitter (Score:1)
CStock20
Joined: 06/08/2010
MGoPoints: 371

FWIW there have been twitter rumblings that the Houston Rockets have "fallen in love" with Morris. They have two 1st round picks (14 and 23 overall) so I wouldn't be surprised to see them snag him with the #23 pick. 

"And they'll never catch him..."

 

June 20th, 2011 at 4:02 PM | Mavs? (Score:1)
Charlie Chunk
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Joined: 05/02/2011
MGoPoints: 613

I heard (throught the usual radio sources) that the Mavericks are a real possibility due to his size.

 

Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.  -Satchel Paige

June 20th, 2011 at 4:09 PM | If he slips past Houston, (Score:2)
LandonC
Joined: 07/24/2008
MGoPoints: 2008

If he slips past Houston, that's probably the only potential landing spot in the first round.  Or at least the only place where he won't be pegged as a backup at best, depending on how long Kidd hangs around.

June 20th, 2011 at 4:11 PM | Kidd's 38 years old.  Even if (Score:1)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

Kidd's 38 years old.  Even if he returns next year, Dallas obviously has to think about a replacement.  It might not be a bad idea for them to draft a PG now and have him learn from a future Hall of Famer for a season or two.

June 20th, 2011 at 4:25 PM | Both the Mavs and Heat (Score:1)
turtleboy
turtleboy's picture
Joined: 04/22/2011
MGoPoints: 3268

have PG needs and very little money to spend, especially with a lower salary cap being one of the targets for the new CBA. The only way either of those teams could get a PG is if they trade, draft, or sign a veterans minimum PG like Bibby or AI. Maybe one of them tries to trade for Steve Nash but I see both teams drafting PGs in the late 1st and early 2nd round.

"that's why you don't go to Ohio State, Lawrence"

June 20th, 2011 at 4:57 PM | I don't think Morris fits in (Score:2)
LandonC
Joined: 07/24/2008
MGoPoints: 2008

I don't think Morris fits in well with the Heat.  They need a pure distributor who can knock down the open three.  While Morris can certainly pass, he's been most effective while dominating the ball, which is obviously not what the Heat want.  And we all know of Morris' struggles with the jump shot.  I'm not sure Miami finds what they're looking for with their draft slots.  Maybe Shelvin Mack or Nolan Smith at the end of the first round, though neither or perfect.  Could also see them going the veteran route and maybe drafting Hansbrough towards the end of the second and hope to get lucky.

The Mavs are certainly a possibility to draft a PG.  They don't have any real current holes that they're going to fill with that selection, so taking a PG for the future after one or two years more of Kidd is a possibility.  But the same could be said about several positions on that team.  

June 20th, 2011 at 4:00 PM | What mathematician would keep (Score:2 Normal)
orobs
Joined: 10/03/2010
MGoPoints: 1734

What mathematician would keep his job if he made as many formulas that were as terrible at predicting reality as John hollingers?

June 20th, 2011 at 4:05 PM | Meteorologists? (Score:3 Normal)
Charlie Chunk
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Joined: 05/02/2011
MGoPoints: 613

Hey...weathermen are just as accurate!

 

Don’t look back. Something might be gaining on you.  -Satchel Paige

June 20th, 2011 at 4:03 PM | I also remain skeptical that (Score:2 Insightful)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

I also remain skeptical that there will be an NBA season at all

This is a much more remote possibility than people seem to believe. Only one of the four major sports leagues has ever cancelled an entire season, and everyone agrees that that was a disaster that should be avoided. The NBA might end up with a shortened season, but a cancelled season is almost certainly not going to happen.

As for Morris, all these rankings are based on the idea that each team will draft the best player available, regardless of position. That doesn't happen. All it takes is for one team that needs backcourt help to fall in love with Morris - and it seems like there are teams that have done so.

June 20th, 2011 at 4:07 PM | (Score:0)
June 20th, 2011 at 4:21 PM | Wow (Score:1 Normal)
bouje13
Joined: 11/27/2010
MGoPoints: 585

Douche post of the day besides that Mrs Lincoln how was the play?



You seriously just sound like a butt hurt fan that wanted Morris to stay another year. How about before declaring him a bust you let him play a year or 2.

He only got the job because he's a Michigan Man not because he was the best.  Is that what Michigan is all about?  You do the best, you get the job.  This MM meme is crap.

June 20th, 2011 at 4:39 PM | Ouch... (Score:1 Trolling)
AC1997
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Joined: 09/19/2008
MGoPoints: 888

Sorry bouje13, but you missed my point entirely.  I wish Morris nothing but the best and it can only help the UM program to have successful former players in the NBA.  I also happen to think that in time his mix of athleticism, size, and ability to create for his teammates will allow him to land somewhere for several years.  The Mavs, Rockets, or Heat would all be spectacular places for him to land. 

My point was that I still believe his chances of getting drafted higher, getting a gauranteed contract, having an opportunity to play right away, and starting a long career would have been better had he stayed another year.  Yes, that means that it would have helped Michigan next year a ton and that I would have enjoyed watching him play....but that wasn't my point.

And doesn't calling someone's post a "douche post of the day" immediately mean that you've taken over that title?  Relax - I wasn't in any way being negative toward Morris. 

AC-1997

June 20th, 2011 at 5:25 PM | I'm sure that's why you have (Score:1 Normal)
BigBlue02
Joined: 06/29/2009
MGoPoints: 1853

I'm sure that's why you have 2 different accounts, right? Or did you mistake someone else's post for yours because you were thinking the exact same thing?

June 20th, 2011 at 4:29 PM | Coach Beilein said (Score:1)
turtleboy
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Joined: 04/22/2011
MGoPoints: 3268

Morris declared for the draft due to NBA teams calling him and saying they were interested. Even after he told Morris and his family about it there was still a debate as to whether he would stay in college or not. Him playing in the NBA isnt a pipe dream of his, he was convinced to do it by NBA teams.

"that's why you don't go to Ohio State, Lawrence"

June 20th, 2011 at 4:30 PM | Every player has weaknesses. (Score:5 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

Every player has weaknesses.  Morris's have been discussed ad naseum.  Don't forget about his strengths - terrific size and floor vision.  Those are things that can't be taught.  Not to mention that he is said to have an outstanding work ethic.  I'm sure he'll spend long hours working on his jumper.  He made a lot of strides in his midrange game between 2010 and 2011.  He just needs to extend his range further.

June 20th, 2011 at 4:46 PM | what I don't think people always GET is that Morris (Score:2 Insightful)
MGlobules
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 5176

and players like him love to play basketball. It is the thing he does best in the world, and he is a very creative player, makes the game fun. None of us went into what we do with the guarantee that we would be the best, or among the world's 100 best, or whatever, did we? You're young, you're healthy, there's a chance you could be drafted in the first round, so you go. And if you don't become a superstar (how many do?), you are not a superstar, or you play in Europe for a few years if the game is still fun (at what to many people is ALSO big money). Then you go back to school, pursue a thousand other things. 

Just not sure what I see is wrong with that. . .

June 20th, 2011 at 4:07 PM | (Score:0)
June 20th, 2011 at 4:23 PM | Dallas (Score:1)
bryemye
Joined: 09/14/2009
MGoPoints: 2374

Dallas would be freaking awesome for Darius. Look at what happened to Kidd's jumpshot when he went there! I can't think of a better guy to learn from and a better environment.

That said he's only worth taking if they're not going to resign Barea. Otherwise I'm not sure why he would play. You don't need 3 point guards.

My Blog

June 20th, 2011 at 4:31 PM | I'm one of the biggest SABR guys out there (Score:1)
AAB
Joined: 01/14/2009
MGoPoints: 7198

but man, John Hollinger's systems always seem universally terrrible.  I don't know if he still uses it, but at one point he said the single biggest factor in predicting whether a college player would succeed in the NBA was the number of steals they had in college.  

There is no time, sir, at which ties do not matter.

June 20th, 2011 at 5:00 PM | Hollinger is one of the few NBA guys I really enjoy reading (Score:2 Normal)
SanDiegoWolverine
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Joined: 02/03/2009
MGoPoints: 1327

on ESPN.   His draft system has proven the past few years to be just as accurate as a top notch scout.  He sometimes puts funny guys in the top 10 and really talented guys in the second round but then again there's a lot of busts in the top 10 and talented guys that end up going in the second round.

Where I think Hollinger's system maybe misjudges Morris is that it looks at his stats for the last 2 years.  Morris is a player that got a lot of minutes as a freshman and quite frankly wasn't very good or at least didn't play winning basketball.  This year he has been leaps and bounds better and has also improved a lot during the season.  So if you just looked at the end of his career at Michigan or even just his second year I think he would grade out as a top 20 pick.

I don't think this is neccessarily a flaw in Hollinger's draft rattings though.  Normally freshman PG's who aren't ready to positively contribute don't play more than 10 minutes a game a frosh while Morris had to do to team needs.

Bottom line I think Morris should be a mid first round pick in any draft and Hollinger's numbers don't change that for me.

T

June 20th, 2011 at 5:49 PM | Mavs would be perfect (Score:2 Normal)
Tater
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Joined: 08/13/2008
MGoPoints: 10491

Despite his description on CBS Sports as a "second round pick." I think the Mavs are a very good possibility.  He could sit and learn for a couple of years as Jason Kidd winds down his career.  As a first round pick, he would be likely to stay on the roster for a couple of years, and might be able to carve out a decent career.  

If he does get drafted in the first round, and his family doesn't spend all of his first contract for him, he'll have a good financial start.  If he makes it in the NBA, great.  If he doesn't, he should be able to find someplace overseas to play.  

I was hoping he would be a student-athlete this year.  Now, I hope becomes a "student-athlete" in Dallas who is learning the game from one of the best.  

 

 

 

June 20th, 2011 at 6:09 PM | The Mavs make nearly no (Score:2)
chitownblue2
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Joined: 06/03/2009
MGoPoints: 7077

The Mavs make nearly no sense. Why would they draft a 3rd point guard in the 1st round? He's not beating out Kidd or Barea.

wolverineliberationarmy.com/blog

June 20th, 2011 at 7:05 PM | No, but he could learn at the (Score:2)
briangoblue
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Joined: 08/03/2009
MGoPoints: 5017

No, but he could learn at the foot of the master for a season and work his way into the rotation after Kidd retires. On the other hand, if they pick him, maybe the Mavs are expecting him to. That may be a nice pick for Morris if the Mavs can spend a little time (and a roster spot) developing him. 

June 20th, 2011 at 11:32 PM | Barea (Score:1)
Michigan4Life
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 5709

is FA and his playoff performance will net him a bigger contract.  The Mavs is likely not going to resign Barea unless it's a hometown discount which I doubt will happen.

 

Kidd has one more year left in his contract so the Mavs must find a PG of the future.  Then again, there's Roddy Beaubois who is essentially Barea clone except bigger.  Mavs have high hope for Roddy but he has yet to realize his potential as a player.

 

Morris can fit in well as a PG of the future and can play alongside Terry/Roddy because of his size.

June 20th, 2011 at 6:29 PM | I said at the time of his (Score:2)
mGrowOld
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Joined: 10/04/2010
MGoPoints: 13229

I said at the time of his declaration for the draft that I feared he would slide to the second round and follow the not so profitable trail blazed by some Wolverine athletes before him.  I hope I'm wrong (we'll always have "get the fuck off my court" no matter what happens) but I'm worried for him I'm not.

Wasn't Donovan Warren a sure fire third round pick or better?  And Manny Harris was definitely going in the first round wasn't he?  And let's not forget Ernest Shazor and his ill fated decision to enter the draft early.

Unfortunately many of these kids get "advice" from agents who get 3% of their contract and don't really care about their career. 

I guess we'll all find out in a few days either way.

 

 

June 20th, 2011 at 7:16 PM | Manny Harris was definitely (Score:3 Normal)
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 29067

Manny Harris was definitely not expected to go in the first round last year.   He was considered a second-rounder at best.  However, he may have been a first-rounder if he'd gone pro a year earlier.  Contrary to what some seem to believe, staying in school does not automatically improve a player's draft stock.  In Manny's case, it hurt him.  In hindsight, he should have struck when the iron was hot.  Morris may be doing exactly that.

June 20th, 2011 at 10:15 PM | Partly true... (Score:1)
highestman
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Joined: 11/30/2010
MGoPoints: 142

...but there are far more examples in the past of kids who tried to go too early and it hurt them

June 20th, 2011 at 10:47 PM | Darius Morris (Score:1)
wresler120
Joined: 10/17/2010
MGoPoints: 572

I wish Darius the best of luck. Hopefully the young man has a successful NBA career. He is a great kid.

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