More Stats Supporting 2011 Success
I've been pretty consistent over the past 2 years the 2011 was our year. I still see us playing for the Big Ten Championship. ESPN Insider has a little article about returning starters. It's an Insider so some might not be able to see it. I'll just clip the last paragraph for you.
While the Boston College Eagles also fit our criteria, perhaps the best test case of the returning starter theory will take place in the Big Ten Legends Division. The Northwestern Wildcats and Michigan Wolverines bring back 16 and 18 starters, respectively, as well as their quarterbacks and starters at the offensive tackle, free safety and cornerback positions. Yet both squads are picked to tie for fourth in the division, while Michigan State and Nebraska are considered the favorites.
Clearly, more goes into a team's success than pure returning starters numbers, but both the Wildcats and Wolverines meet the profile of teams that could see their win totals jump by a significant margin.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:24 AM ^
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^
wait.. we have the best dual threat QB in the nation? ESPN has Chris Relf pegged as the most exciting dual threat QB, with Geno Smith just behind him.. No way Denard can compare to those monsters at QB
/s
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:59 AM ^
Relf is a dual threat QB in the same way Daunte Culpepper was, or Ben Roethlisberger. He's big and will get a handful of barelling yards a handful of times a game, and finish with 400 rushing yards on the season. Dual threat that does not make.
And Geno Smith is like Denard but worse in all aspects.
EDIT: I looked up the stats and Relf had about 700 yards rushing last year, but at 3.7 yards per rush. Not that much of a threat.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:28 AM ^
I know, its kind of funny how ESPN drools over him.. or if you take a look at the SEC blogs ever.. The guy who runs that is convinced he is the most dangerous QB in the nation..
August 23rd, 2011 at 12:37 PM ^
It's hard for me to compose this post without a string of swear words. I am visibly mad at work after hearing that fact.
How is the guy that shattered multiple all-time records while being injured over the course of multiple games NOT the most dangerous dual threat QB in the nation? Is everyone at ESPN as drunk as Joe Namath? (Insert Jalen joke here)
TomVH, if you're out there, please set the record straight with these morans!
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:31 AM ^
Best stats ever!
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:33 AM ^
But this doesn't take into account the massive scheme changes we are doing. While I think the defensive changes will be good, the offensive may take some time to really gel. Also, I feel a lot of our team is lacking the fundamentals that the current coaching staff wants in order to run their systems.
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<br>So basically, I think we should win the B1G.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:47 AM ^
A better D comes from the combo of a positive coaching change, a microscope on the fundamentals, experience, a well-taught scheme and coaching adjustments on player personnel.
I don't have many comparisons of RR staff vs. Hoke staff - but Roh hangin' where the LB's roam is not something that Hoke and Mattison will see happen. Not to say they won't make any mistakes with players. Who knows on WIll Campbell...
It's obvoius that these guys are held accountable based on their technique. That will help. You have guys more experienced coming back. I think there's a positive mix of change that should make this D better.
Some games will be a nasty reminder of the past and others will be a tunnell with some bright lights at the end..
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:35 AM ^
I was starting to feel the 9-win and up thing before too but the personnel situation is starting to look scary. The parts of the defense that sunk to catastrophe are just barely recoverd, and the one part that was good the last three years is going right back to its 2009 configuration of SupermanDE (Was Graham, now Roh); Martin taking on doubles; RVB yeomanly playing 3-tech; and then a mix of tiny freshman, walk-on, and Fuck-all. Nathan Brink had better be good because every run is coming right at him. A little bit of "Jibreel Black looks a lot like 2008 Graham" hype would be very comforting right hnnnghah. And I am endlessly frustrated that there isn't some sort of 1-tech in this group who could let Martin loose against guards.
Defensive tackle and WLB are starting to be really scary. I thought before that the Jones hype train from '10 (he was close to beating out Mouton at times) would hold when he came back from injury, and that three great defensive line coaches could turn Will Campbell into something useful. Since neither of those things have apparently happened, plus throw in an injury to Carvin Johnson that could put free safety right back into the hell hole it's been sinking into for years, my confidence at this moment is shot.
Remember that mediocre defense can swing to bad defense any time -- with an injury or two, or a bad game -- just in the normal course of things. And offense, especially transitional offense, can shut down for entire games. This Michigan team could lose to almost anyone on its schedule.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:46 AM ^
Whoa dude, relax. It's going to be ok. Toussaint is going to save us all.
August 23rd, 2011 at 1:38 PM ^
I would like to refer you to the 2010 Detroit Lions. Now Mike Martin is not Ndamakong Suh, but in relation to our defense and the Big Ten I think he is. Remeber what he looked like playing basically by himself last year in the 1st 5 games. Look at the UFR's before he was hurt. Now put him in a scheme where he is not triple teamed and Roh and RVB get singled up. This small spark could really start something. The Brink/Campbelll thing is concerning but consider our nickle package possibilities....Roh, Martin, RVB, Black with Gordon as a possible blitzer which he showed last year he was excellent at. That creates pressure....a lot of pressure.
1 man can't save a defense as we've seen with Graham and Martin last year, but if you don't have glaring holes 1 man can raise up an entire defense. I think we've raised our defense up at every position to at least mediocrity. PIcture Demens with a sound scheme some experience and 2 decent DT's keeping him clean. How much better does he look? Woolfolk over Rogers? We will be better. Much better on D.
As for offense.... scheme sheem. I understand the problems involved with scheme changes but if this O-line stays healthy they will kick ass and when we are in a hole......Denard right works in any playbook. The Denard factor simplifies everyones shchemes on d much like Barry used to do for the Lions. I think we look the same on offense despite all the talking. To me the seasonrests on 2 games ND and MSU. Both winnable but both will be very tough. Win those and we're full of confidence heading into the Neb/OSU showdowns at the end of the year which I think since they are at home we can win.
August 23rd, 2011 at 2:12 PM ^
And I think people are falling into the trap of assuming that seven wins is our floor, because we won that many last year. Last year's team was 4-0 in single-digit games. That's not normal for any team, much less one that went 7-6 overall. That's a sign of good fortune which may not be replicable. (Can we expect ND to field a walk-on QB for half the game again, for instance?) Against our 11 BCS-level opponents, we were outscored 380-297 in regulation. Even when that 44-point win over BGSU is thrown into the mix, we were still outscored on the season. It paints a picture of a bad team that was fortunate to go to a bowl at all. Can we go from that to winning 9-10 games against a fairly tough schedule? It'll be tough.
August 23rd, 2011 at 10:39 AM ^
Ziff, from your lips to God's ears, but I don't know.
I rewatched the Illinois game last night. That D was so bad, I simply can't see things completely turning around this year. Experience will help some, coaching will help a lot, but I still think we are a couple of years away from getting the right talent in place. Listening to the coaches suggests improvement, but only so much. We are a week and a couple of days away from the season and there are almost as many questions as answers. Will we be better? Absolutely, but a middle of the pack defense still isn't where we need to be.
The offense will be more experienced, but running a new system will take some time. That would be great if we had four cupcakes for our first four games, but we don't. I love Denard but I need to be convinced that fumbles and INT's will drop drastically and that we will have success in big games against the best teams in the B1G.
As for special teams...who knows.
I still think 8-4 is a realistic expectation, but hope I am wrong and we win more.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:31 AM ^
Good thing we're not returning as starters more than half of the players that played on that defense then!
Seriously, most of those players out there either not in their positions or thrown into the fire because of injury. If you take that defense of the 2010 Illinois game and pick out who is remaining at their position from that game to today, you get Avery, Demens, Martin, RVB, and Kovacs who are all adequate if not top-Big 10 level talent (yes even Kovacs). If you look at the 2011 starting defense (speculation), your starters are RVB (E), Campbell (DT), Martin (NT), Roh (E), C. Gordon (SAM), Demens (MIKE), Jones (WILL), Avery (CB), Woolfolk (CB), Kovacs (SS), T. Gordon (FS).
Most of those position switches/player additions are HUGE upgrades from what he had last year especially since C. Gordon and M. Jones both put on about 20 pounds from the spring. And no, at this time last year, I was NOT saying that the 2010 defense would be better than the 2009 defense because it was clear our CB and LB situation was doomed to catastrophe.
August 23rd, 2011 at 12:34 PM ^
but of the players you mentioned the only one who could be considered "top big ten level talnet"is Martin. RVB has been steady in his career, but in the top group of DE's in the conference...no way. Demens has played all of about 1/4 of a season (which I admit he look pretty good) so I think saying he is a top big ten level talent is premature. There is an arguement for Kovacs but I would put it him just below the top group of SS in the conferense. Lastly....Avery....are you serious? You think Avery (a true sophmore) is among the top CB's in the conference? I don't even know what to say about that. I give him credit for performing well under the circumstances last year as a true freshamn, but to say he is among the top CB's in the big ten is absurd at this point.
August 23rd, 2011 at 6:02 PM ^
Sorry, I meant to say that all of those 5 are adequate performers and a few maybe even would get considered for top B1G talent (I'd say Demens and Martin) Demens is a monster. Despite only playing in 7 games to rack up 86 tackles? That's insane. That's what a MIKE linebacker is all about. Last year there were quite a few MIKE's that were top notch and this year that number will decrease dramatically. We have Lavonte David and Michael Mauti and... ... yeah Kenny Demens I'd say.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:34 AM ^
I'm inclined to agree with Misopogon. Mostly because of the brilliant use of "Fuck-all". But also on the substance.
Fan excitement notwithstanding, and despite the evidence that the number of returning starters is one of the best indicators of improvement, and ignoring the brilliance (and sheer, unstoppable Mass) of Hoke, Mattison and the rest of the staff .... we have holes. Big holes. Giant, gaping, truck-wide holes that nearly produce event horizons. We are thin. So thin. Wafer thin.
Though even a wafer thin wafer can sometimes cause a glutton to explode, amiright? Can these guys Point and Iron Will these players into 9 wins? Aaargh I don't think so. But please let me be wrong. Please let Mania and Manball and Tremendous Tradition steamroll over other actual football players lined up across from us.
Have I been jaded by the last 3 years, or am I simply trying to view this team rationally? Time will tell but I'm hoping for jaded.
August 23rd, 2011 at 11:35 AM ^
For the first time since 2007, a majority of the lineup is upperclassmen. This is the first time we will get to see how this group of players does when not playing a "boys vs men" scenario. They have the best QB in the confefence coming back. They have the best DC they could possibly have hired, and one who wouldn't have come back for an "outsider."
All they have to do is take full advantage of the personnel they have. They would have won at least nine by just hiring a decent DC; that is the benchmark by which this team should ultimately be judged.
I think the ND game will be a great indicator of how the team does. A loss to ND makes Nebraska look like an auto-loss, and Iowa a probable loss. A victory over ND, who should be much-improved this year, turns Nebraska into a tossup and Iowa into a probable win.
I think nine wins will happen. If Borges turns out to be the "mad scientist" Brady Hoke and others say he is, this could be a double-digit year. I am guessing most people will be happy with wins over Sparty and Ohio.
If we get some classic "Sparty Noooooo" moments along the way, and Ohio gets pummelled by the NCAA, it could be one of the most fun years since 2006, but without the crushing disappointment at the end.
August 23rd, 2011 at 2:52 PM ^
Wouldn't it be awesome it Michigan and NW finished 1-2 in the division.
Michigan being in the title game would be more than enough. But then to see Nebraska and Sparty (the two most "loaded" teams on our side) finish 3rd or lower would just be icing on the cake.
I think I'll be rooting for NW in every game but one this year. Because if we can't win the division, they would be my second choice.
August 23rd, 2011 at 3:52 PM ^
Also, in 2009 Florida St gave up 435 yards and went 7-6. Last year, they gave up 353 yards and went 10-4. Last year we gave up 450 yards and 7-6. Look familiar anyone?
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:12 PM ^
my expectations are fairly muted for the year. the ceiling in my eyes is 8 wins and the floor is 6. i don't have the stats to prove it but just as a guess i'm assuming the value of returning starters is somewhat degraded when those returning starters are going through a scheme change. i know there will still be a fair amount of spread elements in the offense but the change has to be accounted for. the defense i am expecting a good deal of improvement but it will be tenuous at best if guys start to get dinged up on the d then it all could unravel at a moments notice.
then the opposition. notre dame has a solid qb in crist, arguably the best receiver in college football and they're loaded on defense. msu lost some pieces but still have a good collection of backs and a good qb. they also should have a solid d-line. i think the msu game and really msu's whole season hinges on what their o-line will look like. iowa lost a ton and i actually think michigan will beat them this year but kinnick is always a tough place to get a victory even when iowa isn't a top team. nebraska is loaded on d as well and their offense can be efficient as long as martinez stays healthy. that said it's a big if if last year is any indication. then there's osu i know we all want them to fail and fail miserably but they still have a good amount of talent on offense minus their qb situation. all of those games i think michigan could lose. not too mention northwestern if dan persa comes back at 100% their offense is very efficient. same goes for illinois really too scheelhasse could really take a step forward this year as well.
so i'm hoping like hell there's ten wins on that schedule but i won't be devastated if it doesn't happen. i'm looking towards 2013 and beyond for michigan to be in a position to routinely compete for big ten titles.
August 23rd, 2011 at 7:15 PM ^
damn double post.