More Social Experiment: What are our chances of beating Delaware St?
I was not allowed to put in 100%, but I figured my guess was more realistic than 99.9 to the infinity degree.
Two teams = heads/tails = 98.5%
coin toss on Saturday.
Just to be up front about it, I am rounding all figures with 99 and 1 as caps for data gathering purposes.
we lose to del. st. there's just no way. i know some of us are wary of thinking that as a result of app. st and toledo but del. st's not even close to either of those teams. they are horrible even for d-1aa
EDIT: i think i'll get double pleasure from that win as i'm a delawarean that hates del. st.
So would that be a 99 on a scale of 1-99 then?
My cousin lives in Delaware too. Every time I'm up there people are always talking bad about Del. St. Whats up with all the hate for Del St? Just wondering
is just a terrible school, pure garbage. especially after they talked for so long about how we at univ. of delaware wouldn't play them, were afraid to play them, etc. we then beat them 48-7 the first time we played and 27-17 this year.
I remember the media freak-out about Delaware not ever playing Del. St. I remember one ESPN commentator even played the race card. It helps when you have Flacco at QB. Most of the people I meet when I visit Delaware aren't too high on the univ. of Delaware either though.
App St was a horrible match up for us that was more likely ~10% chance to win. I'd say 100% for Dela St, but given your forced constraint....ok 99%.
Hold on. Are you saying that App State had a 10% chance of beating us, or that we had only a 10% chance of beating them? With a healthy Mike Hart for four quarters and a not out-of-synch Henne, we'd have won going away.
98%, subject to change based on health at all positions.
I figure that Delaware State couldn't beat Michigan in ten tries, but probably could in twenty. So 92% is roughly 1/15.
But I'll round for you 99%
The only way we lost would be by some sort of freak accident.
Do you 99%-ers really believe that if Michigan and Delaware State played 100 times, Delaware State would only win once? Michigan has a huge talent and coaching advantage, but this is still college football and upsets happen.
"Do you 99%-ers really believe that if Michigan and Delaware State played 100 times, Delaware State would only win once?"
Yes I believe that exactly.
Once is being generous actually.
Comparing FBS 2007 National Champion Appalachian State to an average FBS Delaware State team is ill-informed and disrepective of the 2007 Mountaineers.
Appalachian State finished 2007 ranked #44 in the Sagarin ratings, just above #47 MSU that the #21 Michigan beat in a comeback 28-24 win. In contrast, Delaware State is ranked #177 in the most recent Sagarin ranking.
That we could be beaten by the #44 team in 2007 (with 3 NFL draftees that year) has nothing to do with the likelihood of being beaten by a #177 team. Nor does the near loss of Iowa to 2009 FBS Championship contender Northern Iowa.
We are 4-1, so 80%
Delaware State doesn't look to be a good team at their level (1-2 currently). Still, weird things happen from time to time.
(copy and pasted)
I'd have to say that it depends on which OLine shows up
Molk Oline= >50%
Molk-less Oline = < 50% (Yes I know Molk is injured I mean how the line played)
In sum I think that Iowa is a very winnable game as has been shown by their almost choke jobs against Ark St and Northern Iowa. Of course you know that Iowa will be up for the Michigan game as was evidenced by when they played PSU.
??? I assume you mean the Iowa data? I am still counting over there as well. No need to post Iowa data here.
Michigan should be able to win this game running on every play.
I agree. 99.9%.
HBCUs are awful at football.
Probably would go higher, but DSU is used to playing the wing helmets. The already lost to UD this year.
It is weird watching Delaware play in the winged helmets. Especially since their colors are only a tiny bit different from our Maize and Blue
i will be that much more concerned about our defense
As previous games have shown us anything can happen in college football. I just have a hard time believing that Del. St. could pull this off, based on just talent levels alone. Delaware State is not all that amazing for a I-AA school.
about 97% and shoelace could/should play the whole game and shut them out....
WMU and EMU could pry beat them by 15+...
I'd love to see DR play at least an entire half to have him get in rhythm. This could be the game where not only DR but other folks get to play some quality time (assuming we have a comfortable lead).
I'm goin with 96%
99% and D Rob has a field day
Lady Luck is a dry hump.
And if we lose, we should burn down the luxury boxes that are under construction.
As an old football coach of mine once said, "99 times out of 10 somebody's gonna win. Why can't it be us?"
Yes that is 99 out of 10. He wasn't Yogi Berra but he was entertaining.
The number is 99%
I will put a month's salary on a 4-touchdown victory.
I'm taking the leap to 100 percent. UM would still win this game with the Coner at QB.
Forcier will be sitting out by the 2nd half and DR will be getting his reps.
This is the perfect game for DRob to learn to manage a game. I wouldn't let Tate dress. We need him the rest of the way.
until the game starts. Once the ball is kicked, 99% to Michigan.
No way we lose.
This is a team that will be fired up to get revenge on I-AA.
At first I wanted to say 99%,
But then I thought no, maybe 93%,
If I averaged those I come to 96%,
But I like Sherlock Holmes, which made me think of a 7% solution,
But I'd have to be crazy to say 7%,
So I'll just add it to 96%,
And say 103%
I know it's not fair, but neither is Sherlock Holmes
If we were playing the other winged helmets it might be confusing. Lucky Us. 97%
No doubt about that. And that's based on your scale of 1-99. If not, I'd say 100%.
There's been a few 1-AA (sorry, FBS) upsets and close games this year, but I don't see it happening in this game.
champion, and I think won it the year they beat Michigan as well. Delaware State is much farther from that team than Michigan '09 is from Michigan '07.
This is at best a 98-2 shot for Delaware State.
Eleventy billion percent