Money seems to be on UM in Wisc game.
I thought it was interesting that the line has moved from Wisc -5.5 to Wisc -4 in the last day. For those of you who are not gamblers that is a pretty big swing during the middle of the week. This is especially surprising given the news attention being on Wisc scoring 83 points last week.
Anybody have any theories on why this could have moved so much? My only thought was the news of J. Clay maybe not being ready to play.
Jamie?
November 17th, 2010 at 12:46 PM ^
Dave Brandon cashed in his Dominos stock on Tuesday
November 17th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^
How many threads a week are posted before a game describing the line and what maybe moving the line?
If we want the line we'll go to any sport site and look it up.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:03 PM ^
The thread isn't about the line. I'm asking why the line is moving in Mich's favor. Living in Michigan all the stuff I hear is we'll lose by 50 and Wisc. will have 500yds rushing and Denard will have 11 interceptions. Based on that data the line movement is very strange. That leads me to believe either Vegas whales are betting Michigan or a tout service is pumping up Michigan or we're so beat down here in Michigan that we can't objectively look at our team.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:16 PM ^
Vegas Whale Fanatic
Rosenberg Punches Vegas Dolphins
November 17th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^
every week we get dozens of post on the line and implications of the line or the weather and the effects of such weather at the game.
They should make a sticky "line" thread and a sticky "weather" thread to go with the sticky "where can I get tickets" thread.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:45 PM ^
Do not read the thread or do not reply! What is the big deal?
November 17th, 2010 at 5:36 PM ^
kinda wanted to make a weather post today. not gonna lie.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:07 PM ^
Why the meanness?
November 17th, 2010 at 1:36 PM ^
I think this is the same guy that considered gambling evil and wanted it banished from this site.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:49 PM ^
more about Michigan than a thread about betting. Cut the guy some slack.......or go to another discussion forum, maybe something like The View?
November 17th, 2010 at 12:56 PM ^
How is this getting negged? I thought this was pretty funny. D. Brandon is "All In". Maybe Brandon saw the "secret" plays or maybe he knows Mike Martin is 100%.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:54 PM ^
Yeah, makes absolutely no sense to me either.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^
about Brandon betting on Michigan and moving the line by putting his stock portfolio All In and people lose their minds. hell, it was a POSITIVE comment even
November 17th, 2010 at 3:18 PM ^
The joke wasn't lost on everyone. +1
November 17th, 2010 at 5:10 PM ^
I understood the joke, but didn't know why it was so poorly received by others.
November 17th, 2010 at 5:35 PM ^
i was ruminating aloud as if we were discussing that one time in college that we glued a toilet paper roll on our friend's head while he was passed out and called him Charlie for a week
November 17th, 2010 at 3:03 PM ^
Maybe some folks just neg mods on sight? This has become a pretty edgy board these past couple months...
November 17th, 2010 at 4:24 PM ^
It just occurred to me that I've been around here for a couple of years and still I haven't learned who the mods are.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:43 PM ^
Tim, Misopogon, Brian, & formerlyanonymous.
PS... Your avatar makes cracks me up every time I see it.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:47 PM ^
are not how close or far apart the oddsmakers feel the game should actually be. The line is set up so that as close to 50% of the money goes each way, that way the bets cancel each other and the 10% you are charged goes to the book and that's where they make their money.
I believe it indicates that more money is going on MI vs WI and they are adjusting due to that fact.
Also, WI traditionally does not play well in the state of MI, home game for MI, etc.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
You just reiterated the thread title. He was asking for thoughts on why people are betting on Michigan.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:54 PM ^
I know how gambling works. The line moving that much tells you there is a lot of money on Michigan(hence the title of my thread). The question is why the public would be all over Michigan considering our game against Purdue and Wiscy dominating the headlines with their blow out. Logic would tell you the public would be on Wisc based on that info. The line change the other way leads me to believe, some big money players are on Mich.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:16 PM ^
I misread the OP. I'm trying to delete and don't know how.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:53 PM ^
November 17th, 2010 at 2:02 PM ^
what is it that the "sharps" are seeing in Michigan's play in contrast to Wisconsin's that would lead them to think taking the points and Michigan is a smart bet? Doesn't make sense to me.
November 17th, 2010 at 2:41 PM ^
I just looked up "reverse line movement", and apparently there was a strong one for the 2008 Michigan-Wisconsin game. I'd also be interested to know what the big money guys are basing this on.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:06 PM ^
Bielema has a gambling problem?
November 17th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^
I was going to say the same thing. Vegas just wants equal action on both sides, and if money is funneling to Wiscy disproportionately the number will move to accomodate more money from Michigan. My guess is that some of the drop is due to Clay being out and the fact that Wiscy hasn't won in A2 since the early years of the Clinton administration. My sense, though, is that the number will tick back up if money starts to come in for UM. It looked like a 5-6 point spread for most of the season.
EDIT: This is a follow-up my first response:
I think the rush of the 83 points has disappaited from Wiscy and people are realizing that this team might be closer to the one that struggled to beat Purdue and had close games with Iowa, ASU, and MSU. Wiscy is a VERY different team on the road this season, and so the point swing is probably in response to that realization.
November 17th, 2010 at 4:37 PM ^
I'm not sure UW's game with MSU should even be considered close. They were +3 in turnover margin and still lost by 10.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
Maybe Wisky fans don't gamble...
November 17th, 2010 at 4:19 PM ^
drink.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:51 PM ^
I know a reason or two for the swing.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:35 PM ^
Does it include an edge that is hard or rope holding?
November 17th, 2010 at 12:53 PM ^
Who cares?
College football would look a lot different today if the games all went the way Vegas said. I know it's fun to watch, but I wouldn't put almost anything in it.
November 17th, 2010 at 12:55 PM ^
Because the word is out that it is MOTHER FUCKING HARD EDGE WEEK!!!! Only a fool would bet Wisconsin when we are going all out and ready to play smashmouth hard edge football. The oddsmakers caught wind.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:04 PM ^
heard of the "Colbert Bump"? This is the "hard edge bump."
November 17th, 2010 at 4:18 PM ^
but we can gamble up the wazoo. What do we have to lose?
November 17th, 2010 at 1:01 PM ^
There's a lot of negativity in here over this. It's completely legitimate to see that kind of swing, considering how ridiculously counter-intuitive it is. How many people looked at the line and thought "Almost a touchdown win for Wisconsin? not a chance" and put money on michigan.
It might be based on statistics because Michigan seems to have "lost" via the spread many weeks in a row and they might think that they're "due", especially given wisconsin's history in ann arbor and because the spread allows a field goal win for wisconsin to still be a winning bet on michigan.
Basically a lot of factors that don't pay attention to the intricacies of these exact iterations of the team.
November 17th, 2010 at 3:34 PM ^
Why is it counterintuitive to think that a 7-3 team might be able to win a big game at home, on Senior Day?
November 17th, 2010 at 6:15 PM ^
Maybe because all of those 7 wins were against unranked teams and Wisconsin is in the top 10, Michigan is 1-2 at home in Big Ten games this year and they've lost on Senior Day three years in a row?
November 17th, 2010 at 1:02 PM ^
Bucky separated HER shoulder doing push-ups last weekend and is doubtful for Saturday.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:05 PM ^
Is that why Bucky went back to the locker rooms? Case closed. I bet she had to make a new "Teach Me To Bucky" video. They are awesome...
November 17th, 2010 at 1:08 PM ^
Hard Edge.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:09 PM ^
Maybe it has something to do with Wisco's winning percentage of less than 30 percent in November road games? They're 9-22.
Otherwise, maybe my amatuerish analysis a couple of weeks ago that bettors like playing great rushing teams when they're an underdog has some validity.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:10 PM ^
because we are a big name. I think the sharp money will be on Wiscy's side come Saturday.
November 17th, 2010 at 1:21 PM ^
His whole point is sharp money is coming in on Michigan already. You don't drop 2 points when everyone is betting the hell out of the favorite. The sharps are dropping the big dough on Michigan, while the general public sees the 9-1 record and the top 10 ranking and immediatly assumes a 5 point spread is a joke.
Home dogs are notorious for covering, the Indiana game last week was a fluke, as have been the 5 TO games we've had the last week.
Michigans offense has proven time and time again they can score with everyone. If you cut out some of the mental mistakes and don't hand the ball over 5 times + a steadily improving (albeit catestrophic) defense that makes a stop or two during the game and you have a shootout.
There are a lot of reasons to call this a close game...
November 17th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^
So are you saying the sharp money can drive the line up or down or vice versa or even both?
November 17th, 2010 at 7:35 PM ^
Sharp money is usually big money. Depending on how it falls it can do either. If the sharps like the dogs it can drive down the line, and vice versa. It just makes the book adjust the line to get even money on both sides.