I know there is a St. Patrick's Day pos-bang thread right below this, but because St. Patrick's Day stopped registering with me like 10 years ago, and because "Hmm, I forgot about North Carolina, they worked State over pretty good earlier this year" or "UMass has to be pretty good to get a 6 seed, I wonder if they can give Duke a game" do not warrant their own thread, perhaps this can be the one size fits all tourney talk open thread. Partake if you please.
Monday Random Tourney Thought Open Thread
UMass went 8-7 in their last 15 games with losses to Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Dayton, St. Joes, George Mason, Saint Louis, and GW. They're by far the weakest 6 seed in the field, and Duke should embarass them.
If they make it to Duke
Good point, and actually, I don't think they will make it to Duke.
that is foreboding for UMass. It looks like the committee really set out to almost put Michigan and Duke on a collission course. The good news is that Duke does not present the kind of interior problems that a team like State does (although Texas may), the bad news is that we can know for a fact that they 1) will play Velcro-disciplined man to man and 2) they will get every, and I mean every, break that the officials can possibly give them.
Wait, what? The one thing I have heard all year about Duke is that their defense is not so hot. In fact, I have a few friends that are Duke fans that have compared them a lot to Michigan.
Yes, agreed. We had no answer for Parker, but if you recall, Caris cut them up pretty good in the second half once we realized how much they were over-playing the perimiter. They do look a little like us.
not be the most stiffling D, but Duke is always pesky on defense. They are disciplined and they don't overplay. You end of shooting over them quite a bit. Now, with there personel, shooting over them may not be so tough, but all shots will be contested. Now, you look at a team like Ohio State, they are athletic, they come at you in waves and they put a lot of pressure on you but it is not difficult for a good offensive team to break them down in a mutitude of ways to get open shots. Duke has a frustrating temperment on D, they just never go way.
MSU also went 8-7 over their final 15. So UMass must've had some critical injuries. /s
Is Evan Smotrcyz or however you spell his name playing for UMass?
He went to Maryland.
Ahh...I could've googled it I suppose. I was thinking him and Mike Cox went to the same school. Thanks for clearing that up.
Mike Cox = Mass
Evan Smotrycz = Runs like Turtle
Doesn't play D there either does he?
It appears that ESPN as a whole has picked staee to win it all, why is this tournament even being held?
thoughts on that. My first thought is that they are reading far too much into the Big Ten tourney, and that in fact, this kind of expectation being put on State is actually kind of a burden for them and one that I am not sure they are good enough to carry. On the other hand, I have to say, the State team we played yesterday really looked like the best team in the country to me. Aside from poor 3 point shooting yesterday (but not typlically), I could not find a weakness on their team yesterday. I really don't know who else to pick right now. If you could have one team v. the field, it would seem to be hard to argue with Staee.
The weakness in their game is that if our offense would make a shot, and not turn the damn ball over, we would have scored 80 and beaten them by 10 points again.
It's pretty tough to play that game when State went 2-17 from three.
When you play three games in three days your legs get tired. Tired legs favor the teams with an inside presence and not relying on jump shots.
Michigan's front court fouled out 90 seconds into the game, the outcome was decided right then and there.
Not relying on jump shots makes you miss TV. Don't miss TV. DIRECTV.
So mad about that possession. Adreian Payne throws an elbow into his defender's chest to knock him off balance and nothing called. Call that one and that's three Michigan fouls that don't happen.
Dawson and Valentine spent most of the first half on the bench as well with foul trouble.
State is not some unbeatable force. I don't care how good they looked yesterday. Michigan can out-offense anyone in the country, or they can go cold and have the same issues we had yesterday.
I am not trying to play that game here. The fact is Michigan had their second worse shooting performance of the year and only lost by 14.
But State's D had a lot to do with that.
The issue for State, however, is that they will not be allowed to play that kind of D in the NCAA's.
But us not making shots and turning the ball over had a lot to do with the D they played. We didn't get a lot of uncontested shots.
Nebrasketball to the Sweet Sixteen where they lose to Wisconsin. You heard it here first. I just get that feeling that that team is a team of destiny. Plus, they've got a guard who can take over in crunch time in Petteway and a big man who can go inside-outside in Shields. I think they'll take down Baylor and then send Dougie McD packing for the NBA.
All computers I've seen are huge on Baylor in their first round game.
I would have picked them over a lot of other 6/7 seeds...but Baylor looks dangerous
Without knowing the outcome of either our game with Wofford or Arizona State and Texas, the estimated probability of survivg to see the Sweet Sixteen is still not too bad at this point. I did the matrix just for that little set of outcomes and the estimate comes out to 62.12%, which would account for us beating Wofford and then either Texas or Arizona State to move on to face Duke (or whichever team survives that portion of the bracket).
I'm winning the billion. No questions please.....until after I cash the check.
I still wish tomorrow was a 16 Seed Extravaganza. In bowing to pressure to have a "play-in" for bubble teams (which is stupid because they then decided to act like everyone made the tourney already anyway instead of calling a spade a spade, thus defeating the whole purpose) they missed a big chance to put a spotlight on the podunk schools. Mid-Major Tuesday could've been a blast, and they screwed it up.
I got Iowa St. in my Final Four.
As far as Michigan goes, I'm concerned that the lack of size and physicality may prevent a deep run.
For now, I have Nebraska playing Creighton in the third round for state bragging rights and Kentucky beating Wichita State then facing Louisville in the Sweet 16.
Go 34-0, and your reward is a path to the Final Four likely including Kentucky, Louisville, and the Mich/Duke winner.
I don't think people believe in them. It looks intentional to have them prove it by running a gauntlet.
beat Louisville last year in the final four. I understand they haven't beaten anyone this year, but I think everyone is selling them short. They are a very good team - maybe not a number one seed, but certainly a team nobody should want to play. People ought to be careful what they wish for.
I like 'em and think they can go far. I just think some of the talking head, blowhards probably don't have as much respect for them as they should.
Some closet Spartoons in here I see. Win. 3 games in a row for the first time in months and everyone talks about them again. Again, North Carolina will beat their ass as they usually do.
If you don't pick Michigan to win your bracket, then you're a damn Fascist Commie
With Staee? Yes they are talented...but they won't be able to get away with murder in the tournament like they did yesterday. But they are also really good at playing a finesse game, particularly if Appling wakes up.
I think Iowa State will take them down.
Sam and Ira got into this on WTKA this morning. They think the officiating will be a lot different from the Big10 officiating, and I tend to believe them. The NCAA wanted less physical defense and the Big10 basically ignored it. Could really benefit us and hurt a team like State.
Lil' Bro is "Rodeo Clown". Like the Singer Songwriter name, given the alternatives.
I have Florida, Virginia, Michigan and Creighton in the final four with Virginia winning.
Just figured out why this can happen...
FWIW the "Bracket of Death" is real. That's a term both XM MadDog radio & Mike n Mike used to describe the Midwest bracket and Evans & Phillips spent a few minutes talking about Michigan getting "screwed" in their bracket placement.
If you add up the overall rankings, per the selection committee (Florida as the overall #1 and CalPoly being a #68 for every team in every bracket here is what you get.
That's a pretty big disparity between the West and Midwest with Wisconsin getting the easiest draw to the Elite 8 of any of the two seeds.
well below a one-seed and we just got caught in the trap the committee laid for them.
Seriously, our two-seed path is easier than Wichita State's one-seed path.
I don't think the "Region of Death" really would impact us until the Elite Eight round.
Mich vs Duke in the Sweet Sixteen Round? I see a couple of teams that belong in the overall 5-12 range. Seems reasonable to me. Then onto the Elite Eight. There, if the #1 seed Wichita State stumbles and doesn't get there, we (likely) get the #2 overall KenPom seed Louisville. We can cross that bridge when we get there.
I really like Florida and Louisville in the Final.
I think Virginia knocks MSU out in the Sweet 16.
I don't feel good about our chances at a Final 4.
I have Dayton over OSU.
Watch out for Mercer.
It is very hard to get to consecutive finals, and I don't think Louisville is good enough to achieve it. I want to put Dayton over OSU but I feel like every UM fan is picking that, which scares me.
louisville to me seem like a paper tiger? i have them going to the final four right now but i think im falling for the hype. why cant a senior-laden saint louis team knock them out?
I think St. Louis lost 4 of their last 5 games to end the season. Having said that, that seems to make them the perfect candidate to blow up 98% of brackets by winning a few games
What if they find their pre-mid February form?
(Of course, if they don't, they're going out in the play-in round. But in some pools, you'd still have that Iowa/Tennessee team.)
I think we match up very well against most of our potential opponents. Yes, they will be difficult, but I don't think our path to the final four is significantly different or more difficult than last year's.
Honestly anything beyond the Sweet 16 is a crapshoot for the most part IMO.
To take out Louisville and Duke in the tourney. We do that and I don't care what happens after ... (ok, I'm lying.. But still)
I'm trying to ensure I'm not biased, but am I the only person who thinks MSU is going to struggle and lose to Cinci?
What are you basing that on? Have you watched Cinci? Not pretty.
Cinci could easily struggle with Harvard.
I'm interested to see what happened to Harris in the game yesterday. Said he couldn't go back in the game at one point and then I think he came back but was pretty ineffective. I saw him limping around and looking like his arm was dead (doubling up injuries now). If he's not 100% it's gonna be tough for them. Their road to the Final 4 is insanely easy though so he might be healthy by then even if injured.
He came back and threw down a one handed dunk in between our porous defense on a semi-transition type break. I think he's fine personally but I do recall them saying something about a dead arm. Again, I'm guessing he'll be fine.
Is going to beat MSU. For MSU, Virginia is just the type of team that will give them fits as they play great defense and can shoot the 3 ball. MSU is poor at taking care of the ball and thrives in transition and Virginia is very physical and will force MSU to run half court offense and take care of the ball. I see lot's of turnovers and knashing of teeth in E. Lansing.