Monday Random Tourney Thought Open Thread

Submitted by ijohnb on

I know there is a St. Patrick's Day pos-bang thread right below this, but because St. Patrick's Day stopped registering with me like 10 years ago, and because "Hmm, I forgot about North Carolina, they worked State over pretty good earlier this year" or "UMass has to be pretty good to get a 6 seed, I wonder if they can give Duke a game" do not warrant their own thread, perhaps this can be the one size fits all tourney talk open thread.  Partake if you please.

LordGrantham

March 17th, 2014 at 9:34 AM ^

UMass went 8-7 in their last 15 games with losses to Richmond, St. Bonaventure, Dayton, St. Joes, George Mason, Saint Louis, and GW.  They're by far the weakest 6 seed in the field, and Duke should embarass them.

ijohnb

March 17th, 2014 at 9:47 AM ^

that is foreboding for UMass.  It looks like the committee really set out to almost put Michigan and Duke on a collission course.  The good news is that Duke does not present the kind of interior problems that a team like State does (although Texas may), the bad news is that we can know for a fact that they 1) will play Velcro-disciplined man to man and 2) they will get every, and I mean every, break that the officials can possibly give them.

In reply to by ijohnb

Avant's Hands

March 17th, 2014 at 10:33 AM ^

Wait, what? The one thing I have heard all year about Duke is that their defense is not so hot. In fact, I have a few friends that are Duke fans that have compared them a lot to Michigan.

ijohnb

March 17th, 2014 at 11:18 AM ^

not be the most stiffling D, but Duke is always pesky on defense.  They are disciplined and they don't overplay.  You end of shooting over them quite a bit.  Now, with there personel, shooting over them may not be so tough, but all shots will be contested.  Now, you look at a team like Ohio State, they are athletic, they come at you in waves and they put a lot of pressure on you but it is not difficult for a good offensive team to break them down in a mutitude of ways to get open shots.  Duke has a frustrating temperment on D, they just never go way.

ijohnb

March 17th, 2014 at 9:44 AM ^

thoughts on that.  My first thought is that they are reading far too much into the Big Ten tourney, and that in fact, this kind of expectation being put on State is actually kind of a burden for them and one that I am not sure they are good enough to carry.  On the other hand, I have to say, the State team we played yesterday really looked like the best team in the country to me.  Aside from poor 3 point shooting yesterday (but not typlically), I could not find a weakness on their team yesterday.  I really don't know who else to pick right now.  If you could have one team v. the field, it would seem to be hard to argue with Staee.

mistersuits

March 17th, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^

When you play three games in three days your legs get tired. Tired legs favor the teams with an inside presence and not relying on jump shots.

Michigan's front court fouled out 90 seconds into the game, the outcome was decided right then and there.

mgobaran

March 17th, 2014 at 9:58 AM ^

State is not some unbeatable force. I don't care how good they looked yesterday. Michigan can out-offense anyone in the country, or they can go cold and have the same issues we had yesterday.

I am not trying to play that game here. The fact is Michigan had their second worse shooting performance of the year and only lost by 14. 

ypsituckyboy

March 17th, 2014 at 9:38 AM ^

Nebrasketball to the Sweet Sixteen where they lose to Wisconsin. You heard it here first. I just get that feeling that that team is a team of destiny. Plus, they've got a guard who can take over in crunch time in Petteway and a big man who can go inside-outside in Shields. I think they'll take down Baylor and then send Dougie McD packing for the NBA.

LSAClassOf2000

March 17th, 2014 at 9:46 AM ^

Without knowing the outcome of either our game with Wofford or Arizona State and Texas, the estimated probability of survivg to see the Sweet Sixteen is still not too bad at this point. I did the matrix just for that little set of outcomes and the estimate comes out to 62.12%, which would account for us beating Wofford and then either Texas or Arizona State to move on to face Duke (or whichever team survives that portion of the bracket). 

MaizeAndBlueWahoo

March 17th, 2014 at 9:53 AM ^

I still wish tomorrow was a 16 Seed Extravaganza.  In bowing to pressure to have a "play-in" for bubble teams (which is stupid because they then decided to act like everyone made the tourney already anyway instead of calling a spade a spade, thus defeating the whole purpose) they missed a big chance to put a spotlight on the podunk schools.  Mid-Major Tuesday could've been a blast, and they screwed it up.

maize-blue

March 17th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^

I got Iowa St. in my Final Four.

As far as Michigan goes, I'm concerned that the lack of size and physicality may prevent a deep run.

Baba Booey

March 17th, 2014 at 10:06 AM ^

For now, I have Nebraska playing Creighton in the third round for state bragging rights and Kentucky beating Wichita State then facing Louisville in the Sweet 16.

hajiblue72

March 17th, 2014 at 11:15 AM ^

beat Louisville last year in the final four.  I understand they haven't beaten anyone this year, but I think everyone is selling them short.  They are a very good team - maybe not a number one seed, but certainly a team nobody should want to play.  People ought to be careful what they wish for.

Jobu

March 17th, 2014 at 10:17 AM ^

Some closet Spartoons in here I see. Win. 3 games in a row for the first time in months and everyone talks about them again. Again, North Carolina will beat their ass as they usually do.

Gustavo Fring

March 17th, 2014 at 10:47 AM ^

With Staee?  Yes they are talented...but they won't be able to get away with murder in the tournament like they did yesterday.  But they are also really good at playing a finesse game, particularly if Appling wakes up.

I think Iowa State will take them down.  

MGoGrendel

March 17th, 2014 at 10:51 AM ^

Lil' Bro is "Rodeo Clown". Like the Singer Songwriter name, given the alternatives.

I have Florida, Virginia, Michigan and Creighton in the final four with Virginia winning.

mGrowOld

March 17th, 2014 at 11:03 AM ^

FWIW the "Bracket of Death" is real.  That's a term both XM MadDog radio & Mike n Mike used to describe the Midwest bracket and Evans & Phillips spent a few minutes talking about Michigan getting "screwed" in their bracket placement.

If you add up the overall rankings, per the selection committee (Florida as the overall #1 and CalPoly being a #68 for every team in every bracket here is what you get.  

West         538

East          534

South        529

Midwest    525

That's a pretty big disparity between the West  and Midwest with Wisconsin getting the easiest draw to the Elite 8 of any of the two seeds.

Muttley

March 17th, 2014 at 11:42 AM ^

well below a one-seed and we just got caught in the trap the committee laid for them.

Seriously, our two-seed path is easier than Wichita State's one-seed path.

I don't think the "Region of Death" really would impact us until the Elite Eight round.

Mich vs Duke in the Sweet Sixteen Round?  I see a couple of teams that belong in the overall 5-12 range.  Seems reasonable to me.  Then onto the Elite Eight.  There, if the #1 seed Wichita State stumbles and doesn't get there, we (likely) get the #2 overall KenPom seed Louisville.  We can cross that bridge when we get there.

readyourguard

March 17th, 2014 at 11:12 AM ^

I really like Florida and Louisville in the Final.

I think Virginia knocks MSU out in the Sweet 16.

I don't feel good about our chances at a Final 4.

I have Dayton over OSU.

Watch out for Mercer.

los barcos

March 17th, 2014 at 11:21 AM ^

louisville to me seem like a paper tiger? i have them going to the final four right now but i think im falling for the hype.  why cant a senior-laden saint louis team knock them out?

Soulfire21

March 17th, 2014 at 11:38 AM ^

I think we match up very well against most of our potential opponents.  Yes, they will be difficult, but I don't think our path to the final four is significantly different or more difficult than last year's.

Honestly anything beyond the Sweet 16 is a crapshoot for the most part IMO.