Mlive.com Game by game prediction for the 2013 season.
Return to Indy?
If we keep it under 6 turnovers we beat sparty. I have a terrible feeling about the northwestern game though. Hope I'm wrong.
I'm gonna go ahead and say if we turn it over six times, we lose, and rightly so.
So if it's five, then....no, no, you're still right.
Less than 6 turnovers should beat ND this time too.
I'm going to laugh when northwestern loses to cal sat. I'm so not drinking the "purple kool aid."
Where is all this love for Cal coming from? I understand being skeptical about NU, but why are people supporting a team that went 3-9 last year and now have a true freshman QB and a 1st year Head Coach?
I think they're the 3rd best team in the league...and I actually hope they are. I want to see them do well outside of the Michigan game. I want State to suffer for awhile, Wisconsin has had their run and it's old (plus they had 5 losses last year), Nebraska is Nebraska and PSU is suspended. N'Western is the perfect team that I can root for in the B1G except when they play my team.
Wisconsin had 6 losses last year. 4-4 in the BigTen and losses to Oregon State and Stanford.
I think you mean purple drank
For what it's worth, last year's MLive predictions by Meinke were 100% correct (not to the score, but to the outcome at least) http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2012/08/season_prediction_michigan_wil.html
That is actually impressive. Hopefully Baumgardner is not such a soothsayer (since I would rather beat Michigan State, go 12-0, and win the Big Ten).
That's nice. If only he didn't leave for the lions I'd like to see his predictions for this year.
Detroit Free Press predicted the same 10-2 record with the same two losses (MSU and NW). Lets face it, all seven losses of the Hoke era have come on the road and MSU and NW are our two legitimate road opponents and it took last minute heroics to beat both those teams last year and that was at home. NW is essentially the same team and possibly better if some of their freshmen are ready. Yes State's offense was anemic last year AND they don't have any RB remotely as good a Leveon Bell. That said, you have to score on them to beat 'em.
That's not an unreasonable prediction.
Of course Baumgardner picks us to lose to Sparty -- he graduated from MSU. Maybe it's because I know he's a Sparty, but his articles and tweets always seem more pessimistic and harsh than everyone else's on the UM beat.
In this case, though, 10-2 doesn't seem all that harsh. Who he predicts the losses to can be questioned though,
I see 0 to 2 losses...and to me, NW and Ohio are the question marks. I know people think NW is overrated this year, but they took us to OT last year. They're better and it's an away game - which I don't think it has a huge affect on us (since we own that place), but I think it makes THEM better playing at home. I think we get to Indy and win. It'll just be a matter of if we have any losses and if we go to the National Championship game or Rose Bowl (even with 2 potential late season losses).
Wha...what....did you say!?!
#1 - I don't WANT to lose to anyone
#2 - Hell no, not ND...not when we called them chicken and the rivalry is going away for awhile. I can't let them win the last two. It'll erase the heroics of Forcier, Denard and Gallon.
You fail to note that we had A LOT of problems last year. OL, to a lesser degree DL, QB who had only practiced a few weeks... And we beat them in OT. I'll put us at 11-1 without losing any games in the division. (I actually think 12-0 is very possible but I'm afraid to make that prediction). MSU could not scare me any less. Our offense vs their defense is a MUCH better matchup than their offense vs our defense, and that's really what the game of football comes down to.
It may not be a popular thought but Baumgardner is kinda right...we have yet to win that big time road game. I'm not counting that win over NW 2 yrs ago either.
We have yet to prove we can get it done on the road in a tough enviroment.
To be fair, we were on our way to beating Nebraska when Denard got injured. We also were outscored 6-0 in the second half of the OSU game. A healthy Denard gets us at least 6 points.
Sugar Bowl win doesn't count? I don't like this logic because its the typical sports writer thing that takes small samples with weird circumstances and tries to turn it into a trend. 2011: two losses are basically Borges forgetting he has Denard and doing what he knows. First year in transition, typical. Not to mention MSU was an 11 win team that beat a good Georgia team. And he doesn't count the VT game? 2012: lose 5 games, all on the road. 4 against teams in the top 10, 3 in the top 5, and two in the NC game. And the fifth is winnable until Denard's ulnar nerve. Well...so UM wasn't a top 10 team in 2012.
Now it's 2013, with Borges familiar with the players and finally has 'his' playbook. And frankly, neither NW or MSU are as good as Bama, ND, SCar, or Ohio were last year.
So in this case, the past teaches us little about this year. Can we lose both? Certainly. But to say 'road game loss because hasn't proven it yet' is not very good logic on his part.
Why would the Sugar Bowl count? While there were probably more VT fans there, there were still a lot of UM fans. It was like playing at Minny or at Purdue. Yeah technically, it's an away game, but it's hardly a hostile environment.
As for the rest of your post, you're basically coming up with excuses to "disprove" him; when really it's the truth that Michigan has struggled and come up short in big road games. That doesn't mean we're automatically gonna lose them, but it's a legitimate concern going into year 3.
Nowhere in his article does he say "tough road game = loss".
but he sure predicted it with us losing to NW and MSU..our only 2 "tough" road games.
He's still backing up his opinion with something besides road=loss.
Against MSU he's predicting a game like last years, with MSU squeaking out a win, and for NU he's got UM with a slight hangover off a tough Nebraska game the week before, where NU's speed just wears us down
There is not a game on that schedule that we can't win... I fully expect Hoke to have this team ready to shine this season... This is a highly underrated team with all the tools to be a fantastic team. I say 1 regular season loss (fluke game-PSU possibly), and the B1G championship is a toss up... That being said we should end up as an at large, if not Rose Bowl bound, in a BCS bowl. Going to be a good year.
Iowa...our history points to inexplicable loss to the Hawkeyes with this schedule. Never fails...
10-3, bowl win over a SEC/ACC team.
Times have changed. Iowa has not improved since last year. In case you forgot, last year they sucked.
Did I miss something? When did GRCC close? The Google machine is confused as well.
"Cody Kater was a terrific JUCO player, but this is a long way from the now defunct Grand Rapids Community College."
Grcc football program folded not the college
Poor phrasing. The football program was shut down. School still is very much open.
I will say, I would like to see us trample the algorithms - Massey and TeamRankings both would put us at 8-4. While the preseason stuff is based on historical data and probably should be taken with a grain of salt, a 10-2 or even 9-3 season seems entirely possible, if nothing else.
TeamRankings, incidentally, did a complete projection complete with odds of winning the conference. If it is taken as a reasonable baseline, then the Legends Division is essentially Nebraska and Michigan and others, with the Cornhuskers and the Wolverines being the only teams in that division with >10% odds of winning the conference by their figuring.
lol, Northwestern is not a road game for us...
I think northwestern fans are going to fill out that stadium better than they have in the past. They are pumped for this game.
Nebraska's defense is solid
Yeah this guy pretty much lost all credibility with me.
Badger fans agree.
I'm glad I'm not the only one that caught this. Maybe he meant "Nebraska's offense is solid, but I think Michigan's is better?" That's plausible; I like the balance we'll have, even without Darboh. Otherwise, where the hell did that come from...
When it's all said and done, after the first week of January, I see us with three losses. Take your pick as to where they come: Notre Dame, MSU, Northwestern, Penn State, Ohio State, Bowl game. There's going to be a couple games where the youth and inexperience of the interior OL bites us in the ass, where we're unable to run the football, and there's liable to be a game where the secondary lets us down and we give up 400 yards passing somewhere.
Here are my reasons for potential losses:
Notre Dame: Inexperienced interior line, early in the season test
Michigan State: Goofy shit tends to occur in that cement cell block. This is probably MSU's last gasp for a while.
Penn State: On the road, semi-night game, one of PSU's biggest games this year. See above.
Northwestern: This is where we could get torched for 400+
Bowl Game: No one knows what's going to happen there.
Three of those six. No more, but I don't see any less, either. 10-3 by the time we're done.
This team is a year away. We're going to be downright scary in 2014.
But the schedule next year is tough.
Other than ND, the first potentially tough game is PSU. What I like about us is that with our "youth movement", and talent level, I believe we will show more improvement as the season progresses than many of our opponents. Still, hard year to predict. Devin has to stay healthy, and with a break or two, I think 9-3 or 10-2 is very doable.
I think we will take care of Sparty. Their offense is going to be as bad as advertised, and their defense is not going to be as good as advertised. Penn State, on the other hand - we play them early in the year, before injuries will have worn them down to expose their lack of scholarships. It's a huge game for them, maybe not so huge in our minds. It's dangerous. NW also worries me. They are close to breaking through. I think we lose two, but not to Sparty. I say NW and one of PSU, ND, and Ohio. Sadly, the most likely of those three to be an L seems to me to be Ohio. I hope I'm wrong.
The MSU game will be tough from the obvious standpoint of their defense and the fact that its in EL, but until MSU actually proves it can put points on the board, I'm not sure why people are pegging them to beat us. Or any team of any real substance, for that matter. All the defense in the world don't mean squat if you have no RB and your WRs can't catch. This team lost its only reliable source of production on offense, including its top pass-catcher, to the NFL. Until MSU proves it has a pulse on the offensive side of the ball, I have a hard time not seeing us leaving EL with a W. Not saying it'd be a blowout, but maybe a 14-6 kind of game.
Northwestern, I get. That damn option is going to continue to give us fits, and Venric Mark is going to turn some heads this year. I guess if there's any silver lining, we don't have to worry about an intimidating road environment in Evanston.
You mean 2007? We also won there in 03 and 05...
Yeah both 05 was OT and 07 was the game when Dantonio basically freaked out and blew the game. We're talking about putting a beating on, not just beating them.
Michigan moved the ball up and down the field on ND last year. If Denard doesn't gift wrap that game Michigan wins by two touchdowns. Does everyone forget that because of the overhype Notre Dame kept getting?
Agreed, and that was in South Bend. We also would have won the Nebraska game except for Denard and then the Bellomy-instead-of-Gardner blunder.
Basically, the QB position alone cost us two games last year. I mean, other facets could have stepped up - *cough*non-Denard running game *cough* - but if we had maintained our usual QB play in those two games, we would have won. Shoulda, coulda, woulda, I guess. Oh well.
Why are so many of these writers picking MSU to beat Michgan? MSU was downright awful on offense last year and lost 90% of the production. Good luck replacing L. Bell with a linebacker. The defense is very good but far from the immovable force most in the media are making it out to be,in fact the defense crumbled at least 3 times last year on the final drive resulting in losses. The media salivated over Tom Gholston and J. Adams while in E. Lansing yet they are rarely ever so much as mentioned as losses? Bottomline is that MSU did't win a single conference home game last year!
Whenever the media starts to assume state will be good and/or beat us, they usually fall flat. It is when nobody gives them a shot is when they crawl out of their hole and beat us.
Am I being a homer? Sure! That's why I'm on here. I say they'll run the table in the regular season, but won't beat Ohio back to back. This could also go the other way, but I like their chances better at home. Top it all off with a January 1 bowl win over an SEC school.
The editing in that article is pretty bad. What's worse are the comments. "I think Hoke is pretty mediocre but he's Dave Brandon's guy and no way Dave is going to cave".
No way Brandon's going to cave on Hoke after a two-year home unbeaten streak and a Sugar Bowl win in his first year. Plus losses last year that came on the road to three top five teams, and an improvement in defensive performance practically off the chart over two years in both scoring and efficiency. Yeah, let's get another guy who can also find some recruits and get this ship moving in the right direction again.
Time to stop talking and let them strap
on those helmets and have at it. (No comments about strap ons please.)
I honestly like us in every game, but to go 12-0 requires a few gratuitous bounces of the ball, so to speak. 10-2 seems to be a solid bet [between most predictions, which are from 9 to 11 games], but I'm not convinced we will lose to either Northwestern or State.
I have a feeling that this year's team could either be full steam ahead or just kind of "meh". If it's full ahead, I can easily see 10-2 or 11-1, if not, then maybe 8-4 or 9-3.
Alot of talk about the MSU game, but I think their offense could be very weak, even more so than last season. They will have a good defense but I could see them losing games like last year because they just don't have what it takes to score enough points.
ND could be an early speed bump, but if we get by them we should sail into a tough November with a great record.
Penn State will put up a tough fight but they won't have enough depth to compete a whole game.
The MSU, Nebraska and NW stretch should determine a majority of the season.
Another four-point victory against ND? I'll take it with much laughter. Also, we're not losing to MSU or NW.
since Bo arrived ... U of M is something like 27 - 3 vs. Northwestern (I do NOT use 2008 in my numbers). If you truly believe that Brady Hoke has made the turnaround to "old school" Michigan football ... then Northwestern will be outmanned and beaten this year and the 90% winnining percentage against them will continue.
They open with ohio, then travel to Wisconsin and Nebraska before they play us. If they win 1 of these it will be Wisconsin, and I personally don'y see them beating UW in Madison.
Comments below assume Devin is healthy all year - if not the November slate looks terrifying. UM has an advantage of being youthful with a back loaded schedule. So while ALL teams will improve as the season goes forward UM will improve more than average as so much youth is at every position. Plus Devin will have 11 or so games under his belt by mid October rather than 5. That is invaluable.
I split the schedule into 2 parts - the first 7 games and the last 5. In the first part, I assume 5 "easy" wins with the 2 cupcakes, @Conn, Minn and Indiana. These are games the team builds experience and hopefully avoids any key injuries. PSU on the road at 5 PM will be a very tough test for a very inexperienced team - it is no gimme. If Hackenberg is starting I think UM has a better chance because freshman QBs starting just scare me, even if he is #1 in the country out of HS. But it will be close. If the Juco transfer starts probably a 50/50 game. With ND at home, very tough defense and those 2 stud defensive lineman I expect to "educate" Kalis, Miller and Glasgow. I expect Devin to be on the run a lot of that game so his decision making and our ability to get any run production against that interior defensive line will be important. I don't fear their offense as much - I expect a tight game there and the key will be UM offense v ND defense.
The last 5 we have 2 tough road games, 2 tough homes games and 1 trap road game v Iowa.
MSU - back 7 very good, front 4 questionable on defense. If you analyze MSU's "great defense" last year it was destroyed by Taylor Martinez for about 500 yards in total offense, and Braxton Miller put up 400 in East Lansing. If Devin wants to throw his weight around as a Braxton Miller level QB he needs to produce 350+ yards. MSU has been dominating UM on the defense since we were 1 dimensional so play those corners on islands and crowd Denard. Doesn't work anymore so people who assume the same pattern are living in the past. QB wont suck as much as last year just from experience and Burbridge is a potential NFL player making the freshman to sophomore jump and the OL is a lot more healthy with a few seniors on it. The TE is a black hole and the RB is a LB convert and some freshman...or Nick Hill. If Blake can contain Burbridge I think that offense can be neutered.
NW - that offense will give us trouble, we don't do well with spread and are a year away from really having mature team speed all over the defense. I am not worried about the offense scoring on NW as NW has a tough schedule and will wear down in November. The question will be containing their offense.
@ Iowa - not a good team, obviously a let down type of game emotionally
Nebraska at home - that defense is a fraud. 7 lost starters on a horrid defense. The question is what our defense does against Taylor and crew. They have some upper end WRs and a stud RB. This game should be a high scoring affair and its about getting a key turnover or stop somewhere late in this game.
OSU - self explanatory.
I see 9-3, with people underestimating PSU on the road, overestimating Nebraska at home.
undefeated. Winning 12 straight games means you focus every week, come up big during any adversarial moment that threatens a loss, and you win the LOS and turnover margin and score extremely efficiently and prevent big plays from beating you while you stay away from major injuries to key players.
Going 10-2 basically means you win all your home games save maybe one, and lose a tough one on the road. The toughest matchups are MSU and Northwestern. Michigan should actually beat those teams because their defense is being groomed to stop option offenses and make one dimensional teams pay. And there are only a few top passers in the league, and none of them are lights out.
This is always a guessing game. The best team Michigan will face roster wise is the final Saturday of November in Ann Arbor. Can they compete with focus, attention, precision and efficiency in all their other matchups no matter what environment they play in? That will decide the seaon's fate.
Season success isn't built, however, after one or two close game wins. It's built on the momentum of confidence that comes from facing adversity and then overcoming it despite the odds, weekly. It also comes from dealing with strife under pressure as a team, and playing for the guy next to you, and wanting to win more than fearing loss, and believing in that success.
And it comes when you recognize as a player and team that the opponent on the schedule are only obstacles to your goal. And you win by not losing sight of the goal, which only makes the obstacles speed bumps in the road, not roadblocks. That's how you go undefeated and win championships. And because perfection is difficult, claiming a a 10-2 record is always a safe bet, when you think going unbeaten is in reach.