Minnesota By the #s
I have been doing this for a few weeks now and MN has less "strengths" than even Maryland. By strengths I used things they are in the top 30 nationally. There are 2 of them.
The main thing they are good at - pass defense - is perversely not an issue because hey we don't do very well at throwing the ball anyhow, so I guess that is one way to neutralize someone's top strength. Also most Big 10 defenses rank pretty well in pass D due to the lack of QBs across the league. To that end MN is 18th nationally but only the 5th best in the conf @ 177.3/game allowed.
Conversely, MN is bad at many things. On (virtual) paper, another game we look like we will dominate in special teams.
Their D is not "bad" but not really that good either - they didn't have a host of standout figures like NW did pre UM game.
They don't run the ball well; they don't throw the ball well; they don't punt the ball well. That puts you in a pickle. And they turn over the ball quite frequently. Defense is solid but nowhere near elite. 2015 Minn reminds me of 2014 Michigan by the stats. Which would be an excellent matchup for 2015 Michigan.
Things MN is Good At
| Natl rank | Value | ||
| Offense | |||
| Defense | |||
| Passing yds Allowed | 18 | 177.3 | |
| Total defense | 28 | 328.7 | |
| Misc / Special Teams | |||
Things MN is Not so Good At
| Natl rank | Value | ||
| Offense | |||
| 3rd down conversion % | 89 | 36.7% | |
| Completion % | 78 | 58.3% | |
| Fumbles lost | 112 | 8 | |
| Passing Offense | 95 | 194.3 | |
| Passing yds per comp | 123 | 10.2 | |
| Red zone offense | 93 | 80.0% | |
| Rushing offense | 84 | 156.7 | |
| Scoring offense | 110 | 20.4 | |
| Total offense | 101 | 351 | |
| Defense | |||
| Fumbles recovered | 70 | 4 | |
| Red zone defense | 87 | 86.4% | |
| Sacks / game | 103 | 1.43 | |
| Misc / Special Teams | |||
| Kickoff return defense | 73 | 21.4 | |
| Kickoffs returns | 103 | 18.4 | |
| Punt return defense | 89 | 9.9 | |
| Punt returns | 122 | 2.3 | |
| Turnover Margin / game | 100 | -0.57 | |
| Turnovers lost | 94 | 14 |
October 29th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^
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October 29th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^
That kick return and, especially, punt return ranking has me salivating at a Peppers TD return.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^
I'll clap for that.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:24 PM ^
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October 29th, 2015 at 8:36 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 8:58 PM ^
That's what she allegedly said.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:01 PM ^
Minnesota gave up 45 to Nebraska at home.
The same Nebraska that couldn't score more than 13 against Illinois.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^
Surprisingly Ill is doing quite well in advanced stats on defense this year so their D might be somewhat legit in a "Northwestern's D is pretty decent but not as cool as the stats imply" sort of way.
But yes the TCU result for MN and the Stanford result for NW are looking like massive "first week" anomalies, rather than signals of defensive awesomeness. As I wrote above this reminds me of UM 2014 in that you have a competent but not great defense paired with a LOL offense.
We might start slow due to the Kill emotion and the other road game in conf (MD) we started slow but by late 3rd Q this should be a typical UM 2015 game vs a Big 10 baby seal.
October 29th, 2015 at 9:42 PM ^
But they also held TCU to 23. That Nebraska game is the only time they've given up a lot of points. A fluke?
October 29th, 2015 at 9:57 PM ^
Minn's opponents outside of TCU in total offense rank (out of 127)
- CSU: 55
- Kent State: 122
- Ohio: 75 (they gave up 24 pts)
- NW: 116
- Purdue: 102
Then they played Neb (rank 37) and gave up 45
To be fair UM's NCAA rank offense is 90. (we grade higher in advanced stats)
But nothing in a vacuum. Again this is why some Big 10 teams have awesome defensive ranks - the midwest has some awful offenses, MAC and Big 10. Minn had to go to west of the Miss to find one team not ranked below 75 and 3 of those offenses were among the nation's worst.
Due to the nature of our offense we won't probably score zilly pts - vs NW I believe both special teams and defense had a TD so offense only scored 24.
So I expect this to be like 27-6 or something.
October 30th, 2015 at 7:55 AM ^
No, this is a fluke
October 29th, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^
Here's how TeamRankings stacks them up....
|
Offense
|
Michigan | Minnesota |
| Yards/Play | 5.2 | 4.8 |
| Points/Play | 0.402 | 0.282 |
| Rush Play % | 57.55% | 52.66% |
| Pass Play % | 42.45% | 47.34% |
| Completion % | 60.50% | 58.33% |
| 3D Conv % | 40.95% | 36.70% |
| RZ Scoring % | 96.00% | 80.00% |
| Defense | Michigan | Minnesota |
| Opp Yards/Play | 3.3 | 4.6 |
| Opp Points/Play | 0.146 | 0.321 |
|
Opp Completion %
|
47.44% | 54.71% |
| Opp 3D Conv % | 19.59% | 35.59% |
| Opp RZ Scoring % | 87.50% | 86.36% |
October 29th, 2015 at 7:16 PM ^
Looking forward to the day we face a decent defense and see those nice D stats but can say "yeah but they havent faced an offense like ours!!!"
Looking at that data they basically face an offense like ours every day in practice. Ugh. At least we finish our drives better.
With the special teams advantage we should have a lot shorter fields than MN (as we had vs MSU) and our pedestrian offense can drive 40-50 yds rather than MN's need to drive 80. So nice to have a Baxter.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:10 PM ^
Hoping for a solid win as Michigan enters the stretch of the season. Thanks for the work.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:11 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 7:20 PM ^
Preseason their secondary was considered to be top 3 in the conf.
That said - again - I bet the Big 10 has 7-8 of the top 30 pass D in the country. MN is only 5th in the conf despite being 18th overall.
Why?
Because Big 10 QBs.
Some of those teams in the West avoid both Cook and Barrett .... or Cook and Sudfeld....or Barrett and Sudfeld. So that leaves you with an array of LOL QBs in 7 or 8 of your conf games. The East teams have it a bit tougher.
EDIT: Just looked it up. Big 10 has 6 of the top 22 pass defenses in the nation. Woo hoo!!!
October 29th, 2015 at 8:00 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 9:36 PM ^
We resemble that remark.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:24 PM ^
Calling it now: 58 - 0 UM wins.... there's a first time for everything right? err.. wait a second... right?
October 29th, 2015 at 7:36 PM ^
Minnesota is still pretty banged up even after a bye.
October 29th, 2015 at 7:47 PM ^
Their RB they started the year with has been out as well.
October 29th, 2015 at 8:02 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 8:53 PM ^
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October 29th, 2015 at 8:55 PM ^
October 29th, 2015 at 10:10 PM ^
October 30th, 2015 at 3:15 AM ^
