Minnesota OOC Scheduling Changes/Playoff Scheduling Theory
I saw this over at ESPN yesterday and was hoping someone would post it for discussion here. Since nobody did, though, I thought I would bring it up today and see what MGoBoard thinks of Minnesota's direction here. The basic story: Minnesota is dumbing down their out of conference scheduling. They cancelled their only out of conference BCS series between now and 2016 (UNC), and announced a two lower conference/FCS games in 2015 (Kent State) and 2019 (South Dakota State).
This is interesting to me because it's the complete opposite of the direction Gene Smith has announced Ohio is headed towards, a strategy backed by Brian repeatedly, of having 3-4 BCS conference games per year. With ticket sales and fan enthusiasm a bigger issue at Minnesota than at a perennial powerhouse, I can't say I blame them for looking at OOC as a chance to go 4-0. Even if the bowl minimum goes to seven, I don't think it's unreasonable for Minnesota to expect their coach to go 3-5 in conference on average, so they should have a clear path to a bowl most years.
On the off chance Minnesota runs the table, I assume they're banking on being an undefeated Big Ten champion being just enough to get them in. I don't think this should be the case, but the upside for Minnesota (almost annual bowling) seems better than the downside (Minnesota goes 13-0 for the first time ever and is shut out of a playoff).
This is a four year schedule from ESPN:
2013
Aug. 29: UNLV
Sept. 7: TBA
Sept. 14: Western Illinois
Sept. 21: San Jose State
2014
Aug. 28: Eastern Illinois
Sept. 6: Middle Tennessee
Sept. 13: TBA
Sept. 20: San Jose State
2015
Sept. 3: South Dakota State
Sept. 12: at Colorado State
Sept. 19: Kent State
Sept. 26: Ohio
2016
Sept. 1: New Mexico State
Sept. 10: Indiana State
Sept. 17: at Miami (Ohio)
Sept. 24: Colorado State
How enthused would you be with this schedule as a Gopher fan? Honestly, I think I would be excited about more chances for wins, but season tickets might be hard to justify. Thoughts, anyone?
October 17th, 2012 at 1:58 PM ^
October 17th, 2012 at 2:02 PM ^
Obviously we don't know what will comprise the playoff committee's criteria for choosing teams yet; however by all accounts schedule strength will matter much more than it does now in the current BCS landscape.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:06 PM ^
My wording on that one was "don't think this should be the case", assuming most major players start scheduling 3+ solid to good games per year. I don't think the committee will be a vast improvement over the BCS, since they'll probably look at the exact same data the BCS spits out now.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:00 PM ^
As a Michigan fan I would be mildly upset, as a Minnesota fan I would be neutral. After seeing how the Big East has 3 teams ranked above any Big Ten teams despite playing largely similar OOC schedules to those above (minus VT, some others), I am excited to finally be somewhat rewarded for playing teams like Alabama and ND in the future.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:03 PM ^
I think if your team sucks and will probably suck in the near future soft scheduling is the way to go for the reasons you outline in your post. I think if you belive your team has a reasonable shot at getting into the top four (and hence the playoffs) you'll probably want to beef it up to ensure you dont get locked out beause of your strength of schedule being weak.
I think it makes perfect sense for Minnesota to do what they're doing. Just like I believe it makes perfect sense for OSU to do what they are doing. Same conference but radically different expectations for the football team.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:14 PM ^
I think this realization also further segregates college football, if SOS actually counts for anything. Looking at the Big Ten right now: Minnesota and IU should probably never schedule anyone good, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Northwestern and MSU have some variance, but should probably have a good team on the schedule 50% of the time with a similar SEC/Pac team to them on their schedules always, and then for Michigan, PSU (long term), Ohio and Nebraska should be all upside for good and mid-tier BCS teams.
If I was Minnesota, any of the schedules above look great. If I'm Northwestern, I probably schedule Vanderbilt annually and try and get a home and home with a Oregon or a Texas every 1/2 or 1/3 years. Then, if you're Michigan, the upside to playing, say, Vandy, Cincinnati, UNC and Oklahoma seems too good to pass up.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:05 PM ^
I think people are being more hopeful about SOS than it really merits. Who is in a better position nationally right now: Oregon or Michigan? Michigan has lost to #1 Alabama in Dallas in the first game of the season, and could have beaten a top ten Notre Dame team on the road. But because it played tough teams and lost, they are barely in the top 25.
Oregon has played nobody. If they run the table they're in the BCS championship game.
Oregon is a better team than Michigan, but if Michigan had played EMU and BC and won comfortably instead of losing to Bama and ND, we'd be talking BCS championship ourselves. Dinged for bad SOS? Sure, but bad SOS in the top ten sounds better than good SOS and almost out of the polls.
"But wait," you say, "the polls won't matter with the committee!" They won't, but wins and losses will. If anything, having four slots available will increase the chance that a big conference undefeated team, no matter how weak their schedule, gets a shot. An Oklahoma team with one loss against K State is not going to be chosen ahead of an Oregon team with no losses. SOS only matters if you lose.
In my opinion, Michigan was foolish to play Alabama in the first game of the season. If we played them, say, now, we would still lose but we'd at least lose with Fitz and Clark and with our D-line finally playing well, and with Raymon Taylor not slipping on that long PA touchdown. As it is, we lost big, and no matter how good everyone thinks Bama is we are written off as mediocre by the rest of the country.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:20 PM ^
But I think what's actually at play here are several one or two loss teams vying for the four spot (maybe the three as well, depending on how heavily CCG results are weighted). Looking between one or two loss teams, I don't think it's unreasonable to say that a tough schedule could start winning out over style points against a weak schedule. A 13-0 Big Ten team will always be in the top four, no matter what their OOC schedule looks like; on the flip side, a lot of one/two loss teams look too close to call, and I think that's what a good SOS could help hedge against.
In other words, I'd be shocked for an undefeated conference champion to be left out in favor of a team with a loss or two against good teams, but I could see a 10-2 team getting in over an 11-1 team based on SOS.
October 17th, 2012 at 4:47 PM ^
This is accurate. In just about every measure used in the BCS, Michigan's win over UMass is worth more than the loss to Alabama. No one gets credit for scheduling up and losing, and I'm not seeing how that will change.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:04 PM ^
Earlier this year when Minnesota was 4-0 (after beating no one), all of my Minnesota-born friends would not stop talking about how the gophers were neccesarily better than Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
I look forward to them being 4-0 every year just to have their shit-eating grins wiped off of their beautiful Scandinavian faces by Brady Hoke and company.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:54 PM ^
Agreed, think it is a smart move by MN’s AD. When I lived there, they had serious attendance issues at games. Casual fans, (and every team has them, some more than others and MN is one with college football as everything is Vikes/Packers.) don’t know all the intricacies of college football, just want to see their team win. This gives them a strong case to win several at the beginning of the year and as others mention get more bowl invites. (Great! More money for UofM also!) More wins and bowls = more PR and more fans and more attending games. Doesn’t matter that more than half don’t know what conference UNLV, Missouri, UNI, VaTch, Temple, New Mexico, or Houston is in. To them a win is a win. They get enthused. They go to games, more ‘hot-dish’ tailgates, more support, and more revenue.
It’s a great move by the AD to recognize it and have the chutzpa to follow the path he thinks is best for his teams. Who knows; they win enough; he may just develop a winning culture again in 10-20 years, building confidence each year that they win significant games over better B1G opponents, get better recruits, and develop a more powerful Gopher program. (Iowa State has been doing similar, not playing quite as many weaker conference teams though.) Better than what they are doing now, languishing as a perennial doormat.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:09 PM ^
Selling out a game vs. UNC is a lot easier than a game vs. South Dakota St. so I think that element of your argument is moot.
I envision a great divide happening with the onset of the playoff. Some schools will stuff their bellys with cupcakes to preserve a 4-0 OOC record, others will stack the deck to boost strength of schedule. We won't hit any kind of equilibrium until a few years of the playoff lends some credence into what the selection committee values more.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:16 PM ^
100% incorrect.
Of all the soup can games listed above, the only ones that will sell out are those with the Dakotas. North Dakota State brought 20,000 to the Metrodome in (I think) 2005 and 2006, and put about 10,000 in TCF in 2011. South Dakota brought over 8,000 fans to TCF in 2010.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:10 PM ^
They play the Buckeyes OUT of conference in 2015?
October 17th, 2012 at 2:11 PM ^
Here is the ideal Minnesota Schedule to me
Dakota Team - tune up game
Iowa State - bcs opponent in similar situation
MAC Team - Winnable game but should be challenging
Lowly Texas Team - Important for recruiting
October 17th, 2012 at 2:12 PM ^
It's been what, 3-4 years since the Gophers have gone bowling? They need to get back to being mediocre (and they're pretty close now) before they can realistically do anything with an eye towards championships and/or undefeated seasons.
Also, they did just complete a home-and-home with Southern Cal last year so it's not as if the Gophers have been totally hiding behind cupcakes.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:13 PM ^
It's beyond easy to get into any Gopher game now - last week on Friday the ticket office was offering $20 tickets to their Homecoming game against Northwestern.
In September in Minnesota (yes, I live in Minnesota, yes, I'm a Gopher alum but lifelong Michigan fan), there are a million things we all want to do before the snow starts coming down. Jerry Kill might think scheduling potted plants in the non-conference is a good idea, but when you're fighting in a major market against the Twins, the Vikings, the Lynx (don't laugh - their team is very good and draws fans), the Wild and the hockey teams at your own school for eyeballs and interest, along with youth soccer, upcoming hockey tryouts, etc., you need a hook.
I see exactly 0 games above in the OP that I would attend even with a free ticket, except MAYBE the Ohio game. Why in the world would I waste 5-6 hours on a beautiful fall afternoon watching the Gophers play these teams? I'd just save the time, do yardwork, drink a beer, and wait for a competitive game later in the day on TV.
And to the OP's point - I was a Gopher season ticket holder from 2007-10. There is little resale market for Gopher tickets save the Wisconsin and Iowa games (season tix start at $275, you could Stubhub your way into TCF for under $100 for the season), and you're essentially now stuck with 4 games nobody wants to watch going forward whereas from 2009-now Cal, Air Force, USC, and Syracuse showed up at TCF.
Minnesota might get early season wins, but no one will watch or care, and Kill risks getting the Glen Mason treatment unless he can beat Wiscy / Iowa / Michigan / Sparty / Nebraska all in one year and make a breakthrough. How likely is that?
October 17th, 2012 at 2:14 PM ^
Kansas state has done that for years Bill Snyder says to build momentum. At this point bowl games should be the end game for minnesota football as they are trying to build. The downside is if you run the table against that schedule you loose that national respect and the fans get the short end of the stick
October 17th, 2012 at 2:51 PM ^
Might work if Minnesota had Bill Snyder, but even he isn't living by that--K State just finished a home-and-home with Miami, and both wins have been coming-out parties for the team.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:19 PM ^
Does anybody's attitude about Minnesota's decision to drop North Carolina change with the (confirmed by the AD) fact Minnesota PAID UNC $800,000 to get out of the home and home?
October 17th, 2012 at 2:23 PM ^
Even if you look at it from a sure loss to sure win manner (and I don't think Minnesota should concede that, they look like they're improving quickly), I can't imagine any win is worth $400,000 on the season. I don't know what kind of gate they make at TCF Bank, but that's a sizeable chunk of change even for the biggest stadiums.
In short: not worth it at all.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:20 PM ^
I'm guessing Minnesota is dumbing down their ooc so they can assure themselves of the magical 6-win bowl eligible Mendoza line.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:31 PM ^
Winning more than 3 B1G games a season would be a major success, and winning only 2 a year would not be unexpected. Might as well give yourself a real chance to get to a bowl game, and then tell recruits that you've been to a bowl for X number of years in a row. If all of a sudden your program has a great year, and you run the table in the conference, including the conference championship, you're still going to make the 4-team tournament in all likelihood.
The downside for them is that in a great year where they almost run the table, but not quite, they might miss the tournament. But that's a downside that anyone in Minnesota would take right now. So they don't care about strength of schedule. The Michigans and Ohios of the world, on the other hand, do care about that downside, and so care about strength of schedule. A weak schedule is a good strategy for their program at this stage of the game (because how many more tickets are they really going to sell for UNC than South Dakota, given their present level of play?)
October 17th, 2012 at 2:24 PM ^
Another interesting thing to look into is this:
Jerry Kill pushed for the UNC series to get dumped almost immediately upon getting hired.
He's willing to have the AD pay $800K to get it cancelled.
I wonder what he has in his contract as a bonus for bowl qualification?
October 17th, 2012 at 2:26 PM ^
It should be good for Minnesota competitively, but it's a huge bummer for season ticket holders. For some resaon they get all of Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nebraska home or away every year. Consequently here is their current 2014 home schedule:
Eastern Illinios
Middle Tennesee State
San Jose State
Northwestern
Michigan
Indiana
Michigan State
Minnesota is having a really hard time selling season tickets right now, especially to students. I don't think this helps.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:37 PM ^
And say what you will about the Brown Jug tradition, but the only rivalry games Gopher fans really care about are Iowa and Wisconsin.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:49 PM ^
They care, but not as much as the other two. Michigan is the highest-priced game on the schedule this year, but they are neither in Michigan's league nor geographically close, so it's not as big of a deal.
I agree about the schedule. Michigan might be in the running for a national title that season, but it should not be the only feature game of the year. Minnesota ought to have a good non-conference opponent to keep interest on the years that it travels to Wisco and Iowa.
There's a lot of griping about the students and from the students, and places like gopherhole have hardcore fans that bash what they see to be excessive fairweatherness of the fanbase, but it's really hard to build a fanbase when you're never good.
I grew up on Michigan football, and I have hundreds of wonderful memories of the team. But if you grow up rooting for the Gophers, and your team has won the Brown Jug twice in 30 years and hasn't even sniffed a championship of any kind... what do you have to hang on to? I'm surprised they have as many fans as they do.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:08 PM ^
There's an easy reason why the Michigan game is the highest priced ticket on the 2012 schedule - no Wisconsin, Iowa, or Nebraska home games.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:16 PM ^
Of course. That's why they should have left UNC on the schedule.
October 17th, 2012 at 2:42 PM ^
October 17th, 2012 at 3:00 PM ^
Any particular reason? He definitely looked like the best value out there.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:10 PM ^
The Athletic Department wanted nothing to do with a coach who was suing his own school at the time. Had the opening been this past offseason, maybe he'd have been considered. Not with the whole Craig James fiasco ongoing, however.
Besides - would the Athletic Director who hired Tim Brewster really want to take a chance bringing in a maverick like Mike Leach? Kill was a safe choice.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:14 PM ^
Let's be fair about this: Leach is a loose cannon, he was alleged to abuse a player, and he sued his previous employer, so he has high difficulty potential. A lot of schools wouldn't look at him, and I'm sure that scared Minnesota away.
That's the point, though--he is a high quality coach who has some negatives that make him unattractive for the big name programs that would otherwise want him. He has already taken a team buried in the second tier of a conference behind major heavyweights, found talent nobody else wanted, and built a championship-caliber team. That's exactly what Minnesota needed.
But they were afraid, and didn't want to take the risk to win. So they went safe.
And "safe" is why the B1G doesn't win like the SEC does.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:04 PM ^
Mason did the same exact thing. Four OOC cupcakes in order to enhance their ability to get bowl eligible.
October 17th, 2012 at 3:52 PM ^
For the last 15 years or so Wisconsin has managed to compete for Big 10 titles and Rose Bowls with OSU and Michigan despite snacky-cake noncon schedules while Minnesota has remained lost in the wilderness no matter who they play. Both schools have similar sizes, facilities, academics, and recruiting bases. With the new on-campus stadium now open, there doesn't seem to be any structural reason why Minnesota can't be as successful as Wisconsin. I just think they've been stung by bad coaching hires and a lingering hangover from 20 forgettable years in the Metrodome.
Good teams and good games will bring the fans out. Unfortunately this move minimizes the latter.
October 17th, 2012 at 4:00 PM ^
This has been a bad move, if only for how bad of a PR hit the team, and Kill specifically, have taken once word got out that they paid $800k to avoid playing a real opponent. Public opinion has largely been sympathetic towards him, and yesterday put a huge dent in that.
The other problem is that season tickets are going to be a huge problem for the Gophers coming up. Lots of people paid full price for season ticket packages, and they've practically been giving tickets away to anyone that wants them the week before games. They sent out a deal this past week where if you bought Purdue and Michigan tickets at $15 a piece, you get the Michigan State ticket for free, while season ticket holders paid over $40 for each game. Good luck trying to keep those people buying season tickets at $40+ a game when the schedule includes a bunch of nobodies where you'll be able to pick up tickets for $5 on the secondary market.
The bowl thing is over rated. They've been to plenty of Sun Bowls and the like. Nobody cares, and if anything, it ends up costing the school money because the payouts are so dismal.
October 17th, 2012 at 7:09 PM ^
Of course if next year is bad Kill could be fired.
October 17th, 2012 at 4:01 PM ^
At least financially. I remember reading that most teams don't make a profit off of a lower tier bowl game.
October 17th, 2012 at 6:52 PM ^
A lot of teams even lose money on the big name bowls.
October 17th, 2012 at 4:13 PM ^
After reading that article yesterday, I actually thought, "Well hey, then, why don't we grab us up some UNC in 2015 and 2016!??!?" I then realized the whole Utah, CU and OregieST thing. There is an open date the second week in 2015 and 2016 has spots as well, so maybe there is a chance Lloyd.
October 17th, 2012 at 5:12 PM ^
I would probably look at the records of these teams right now as I sit first. The known 2013 teams are a combined 8-11 right now. The known 2014 teams are 12-7. The teams we play in 2015 are right now a combined 18-8, and the 2016 teams are 14-12, so thanks to Ohio University and Kent State, 2015 is the most competitive OOC schedule to me, so it is a possibility.
I would then break this down by individual school and their records, and I would quickly realize that UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico State have three wins between them, so I don't want to go to these perhaps based on current data. I wouldn't necessarily spend money to see my team play FCS teams, and the Sun Belt and WAC and MAC don't thrill me, even though these are actually the winning teams in this slate right now.
Many winnable games, but none exciting. I don't know if I would go to any of these in person in that position, having essentially eliminated all of them. I think I would rather my team actually built something and played more exciting games, if it were me.
October 17th, 2012 at 6:01 PM ^
October 17th, 2012 at 7:09 PM ^
other schools from 'dumbing' down their schedules by scheduling Minnesota.
Clever bastards
October 17th, 2012 at 8:04 PM ^
I think some of you bashing this decision by East Dakota are looking at it with the wrong perspective. IE Michigan season ticket holders.
As Michigan season ticket holders of course you'd want high profile/competitive opponents scheduled, we have a better chance of beating them and our record wouldn't suffer as much.
But as someone earlier in the thread mentioned about the 4-0 start Minn fan-bragging . . . THAT probably creates more fan excitement at this point for Gopher fans than losing to UNC by 24 pts. Most die-hard Gopher season ticket holders will probably still buy tickets, and with an easy succesful start to the season more fans (even fair-weather ones) will buy in.
They might lose only 1, or win all their OC games & just pad that record before they start losing to the big boys of the conference.
I'm not suggesting this is sustainable, or a solid long-term plan ; but I do see how it could make sense for a perrenial bottom dwelling team.
October 17th, 2012 at 10:11 PM ^
Because people here have seen this show before--Brewster and Mason both built decent records on the backs of lousy non-conference schedules and proceeded to stink up the conference. The fans don't want four pansy wins, wins over Indiana and Purdue, and a trip to Detroit or Boise. They want a team that actually tries to be good.
WCHBlog basically nailed it in his assessment. The PR here is awful. And they are not at all guaranteed to sell season tickets successfully in future years. There's a lot of grumbling about different aspects of the game day experience and widespread dissatisfaction that risks a turn to apathy.
Before, poor attendance and bad recruiting could be (somewhat justly) blamed on the Metrodome. No longer. Minn has its Stadium and the fans are restless for progress.
October 17th, 2012 at 8:42 PM ^
October 18th, 2012 at 12:09 PM ^
This is bad policy for the B1G and Minnehaha. It would be nice to go to a promotion relegation scheme with automated scheduling based on past performance...but that'll never happen.
In the meantime there will be Minnehahas and Hiawathas. I'm glad to schedule the best teams possible. It's good for football... it's good football. Ask the players who they want to play... the best. The fans have already spoken...bad football - even at historically good programs makes for empty stadiums.
