Mich/Purdue Predictions

Submitted by goblue85 on

Michigan plays its final road game tonight at Purdue 7pm BTN.  This squad has lost four straight road games and last road win was at Illinois on 1-27.   Burke and THJ need to step up and get this win and give us something to play for on the home finale Sunday.   Hopefully the stunning PSU loss will get the focus for the squad tonight.   We need to play with some pride tonight and will get the road win. 

 

Michigan 66

Purdue 59

 

OHbornUMfan

March 6th, 2013 at 8:13 AM ^

Byrd 3pt. attempts - 9 1/2

Byrd made 3s - 3 1/2

Average distance behind 3pt. line for Byrd 3s - 3 ft.

Stauskas minutes - 12

Burke points - 19

Burke assists - 8

McGary assists to GRIII - 2 1/2

GRIII dunks - 2 1/2

Morgan points - 5

Akunne points - 1

Floor slaps - 1/2

Soulfire21

March 6th, 2013 at 8:57 AM ^

I'm not sure because we've been exceptionally terrible at road games in general, and even moreso when something's on the line (#1 ranking, shot at Big Ten title, etc.)

I'd like to think we've got things figured out, and we show the grit we showed against MSU.  We need to win tonight, and then Sunday we will get the opportunity to play for a consecutive Big Ten championship.

Purdue is coming off their best game of the season, game is @PUR, hell, I don't know what's going to happen.  Purdue showed a lot of life in the first half against us back in AA, where they shot something like 60% from 3 or something stupid.

Michigan by 5.

LSAClassOf2000

March 6th, 2013 at 8:57 AM ^

Here's a comparison of how Michigan and Purdue have fared in the conference:

 

Offense Michigan Purdue
Points/Game 71.6 61.5
Avg Score Margin 6.9 -5.1
Assists/Game 13.2 12.7
Total Rebounds/Gm 33.7 37.9
Effective FG % 53.65% 44.57%
Off Rebound % 31.30% 35.40%
Defense Michigan Purdue
Opp Points/Game 64.7 66.6
Opp Effective FG % 49.22% 45.61%
Off Rebounds/Gm 10.2 13.0
Def Rebounds/Gm 23.9 24.5
Blocks/Game 2.5 4.6
Steals/Game 6.5 4.2

So, Massey is going with a 73% win probability for Michigan, which...Big Ten...road game...most algorithms at this point seem to factor in a substantial hit for the visiting team in the Big Ten now.

Anyway, it is definitely a winnable game, and at this point, well, we need to win this to remain in control of our destiny in the conference. The threes need to make a re-appearance after disappearing on Sunday, I would say, but a smattering of those added to even a mere typical Michigan performance and we should win. I will go with 75-65-ish Michigan.

LSAClassOf2000

March 6th, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

StatSheet keeps track of this very thing here -

http://statsheet.com/mcb/conferences/big-ten/referees

This page breaks down Big Ten referees with their conference and season stats, including Home Foul Margin and Fouls Per Game, as well as Total Fouls. This makes it relatively easy to decide which crew would be the "Crew From Hell" basically.

MGlobules

March 6th, 2013 at 9:03 AM ^

panding, Caris playing lockdown D and confident O, Nik coming in off of the bench to drill a nice pile o' 3s, and Hardaway wearing his full zoot Mojo suit, spinning basketball rainbows. Burke handing out assists like peppermint candy, checking out to let Spike run things halfway through the third quarter. If teams have to account for 8-9 Michigan players throughout the NCAAs, we will be in the final four. Tonight: Michigan 82, Purdidn't 50. 

ijohnb

March 6th, 2013 at 12:49 PM ^

was a concussion I don't think he sees the floor tonight.  If he does not see the floor tonight I think that Levert should start against Indiana with Stauskas off the bench.  Levert brings a little more defensive ability than Stauskas and I think that he matches up better with the IU wings.  If Stauskas did have a concussion I think his next start will be the first round of the BIG tourney.

ChicagoGoBlue

March 6th, 2013 at 9:13 AM ^

Purdue will come out hard to play the spoiler, but Michigan will not lose focus on the prize and pick up the win, setting up the conference title showdown Sunday.

Tater

March 6th, 2013 at 9:17 AM ^

Purdue, who pride themselves on being the "spoilmakers," will play a brilliant first half and take a small lead into the locker room.  Then, after JB and staff make adjustments, and Purdue has twenty minutes to realize how tired they are from playing over their heads in the first half, Michigan dominates the second half.

Michigan 77, Purdue 59.

ClearEyesFullHart

March 6th, 2013 at 9:32 AM ^

And Michigan won...Maybe I should pick Purdue.  Naw, I think groveling is the answer.  Please God(diety, universe, etc) Let Michigan win.  By 20.  By a point in double overtime.  I care not.  Just let Michigan win. 

Darth Wolverine

March 6th, 2013 at 9:43 AM ^

I don't really know what to think about this game. The game on Sunday against Indiana for a share of the conference title just seems to good to be true. I'm not making a prediction for tonight's game (win or loss that is), but do feel it's going to be a tough one. I will gladly eat crow if Michigan blows out Purdue though. I have reason to be worried considering the last couple times Michigan controlled their own destiny, they lost.

Zok

March 6th, 2013 at 9:45 AM ^

If Levert gets more mins then Stauskas I think UM wins.

 

That being said, if I had to make a prediction I would say Purdue wins and UM turns around and beats IU at home. That's the way the season has been going and is most likely IMO.

Hope I'm wrong. I think it will take a THjr vs OSU type performance to eek out a win b/c I'm not confident the D will be there.

ontarioblue

March 6th, 2013 at 9:54 AM ^

We don't play well on the road and Purdue really needs a quality win.  Gut feeling is there will be over 1000 comments on the thread tonight.  Go Blue!

Mmmm Hmmm

March 6th, 2013 at 9:55 AM ^

...but in typical B1G fashion, the final score of 68-64 will look closer than it actually was.



/fingers, toes, and eyes crossed (yep, not easy to post with crossed fingers and eyes)

SF Wolverine

March 6th, 2013 at 10:10 AM ^

reminding us of where this team was in the pre-ugliness stretch in which we dropped three of four.  We start making some shots beyond the line, THJ gets his mojo back, and LAVert and Stauskas split minutes, which prevents Purdue from getting a read on either one of them.  80-63.

mGrowOld

March 6th, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^

Not sure about the score but I do predict that a long scheduled Sushi class with my avatar will prevent me from watching the game for the first time this year.  In addition I predict I will check my phone often enough for scoring updates to cause her to make a comment about it at some point.  Lastly I predict I will try and get a TV on somewhere (in a Japanese resturant) to see if they carry the B1G channel and will confuse everyone if successful.

snoopblue

March 6th, 2013 at 10:52 AM ^

Purdue has been playing pretty well lately, especially terone johnson. If we get the road performance that we've seen lately, this is about a 5 point win. If we get a motivated team with energy, we win by 20.

MichiganMan2424

March 6th, 2013 at 10:53 AM ^

Not sure how anyone can predict we win "big" at this point, we've been awful on the road of late and just underwhelming in general.

Until I'm proven wrong, I'll say Purdue by 7. I've lost all faith in this team away from Crisler.

Perkis-Size Me

March 6th, 2013 at 11:05 AM ^

No prediction. Just win. By 1 or 100, I don't care. I just want to look at my TV tonight at the end of the game and see that Michigan has more points than Purdue. End these road woes, come home and win a title on Sunday.