EDIT: This post is not saying Lunardi is a bad source. He's been great at predicting who will make it into the tournament and who wont. It was written to point out that his predictions should be taken with a grain of salt beyond bubble-predictions- seedings, regions, etc.
Since our beloved men's basketball team first played itself onto the bubble in the last few weeks, countless threads have been started citing Joe Lunardi's picks for Who's in/who's out, rankings, and even the regions teams will be placed in. What has earned Lunardi the "Bracketologist" title? More importantly, does his "wisdom" deserve so much attention within the mgoblogosphere? Like most of you, I assumed it would be his proven track record that allows him this McShay-like authority. Unfortunately, the following data argues otherwise. He accurately predicts the bubble, but beyond that you might as well have your girlfriend set up the bracket.
[The statistical data in this post is courtesy of ssreports.wordpress.com. I was going to compile the data myself for my first diary, but some time spent on google showed me that someone beat me to the punch.]
The article is worth a read but here are the main points:
Lunardi Accuracy 2010
Who's in who's out- 64/65
"Saying Lunardi got 64 out of 65 teams correct is no big accomplishment because over 50 of those teams either received auto-bids or were locks."
Teams correctly seated- 27/65 (41.5%)
2009- 31/65 (47.7%)
Teams correctly placed in each region- 17/64 (26.5%)
2009- 29/64 (45.3%)