I know, depressing post. I wanted to truly see how bad Michigan's offense is under Hoke and Borges this year in Big Ten play.
this guy evidently hired to work for AD
I know, depressing post. I wanted to truly see how bad Michigan's offense is under Hoke and Borges this year in Big Ten play.
I don't want to read this. But am up, so I will.
I am surprised we are averaging 24 ppg. Seems like it is even worse than that
63 against IU, that game alone is worth 9 points in the average. In the four games since we've scored 63
We scored 42 and 43 against Minnesota and Penn State meaning we've averaged a little over 15 points since the Indiana game.
All about perspective. You can say the IU game is worth 9 points [actually it is 7 but whatever that is not important] alone but one could also say the MSU game is worth over 10 points alone as the average is 34.3 with that game removed.
EDIT: Saw OP took out overtime and defensive stats so MSU game will not move the stat 10 points but rather something less than that. Point still stands.
Do the numbers you're dealing with have easily accessible ranks? That'd be nice to see for both charts.
There really is a tremendous irony that the M game records for total offense and receiving yards are by members of one of the worst Michigan offenses of the modern era, particularly if you look at the peformance curve of the offense over the season.
You'd think that one would preclude the other, but it really isn't the case.
ESPN statistics are deceiving... Great post... God awful offense.
The Indiana game and the overtime games......Not good outside of the first two weeks and Minnesota.
These sorts of arguments are a pet peeve of mine for whatever reason. The Indiana game happened making it is disingenous to present the stats without that game. What are the Big Ten stats with the Indiana game included and the Michigan State game removed? Probably not that bad right? [EDIT: 34.3 ppg by my calculations].
Similarly, I went through the Vikings box scores last year and took out Adrian Peterson's longest run of each game.
Attempts 348 (2nd)
Yards - 2097 (1st by 484 yards)
YPA - 6.0 (2nd)
W/O Longest Run
Attempts - 332 (2nd)
Yards - 1467 (5th)
YPA - 4.419 (19th)
So without these "outlier" long runs it looks like Peterson is only the 19th best running back on a per touch basis. It is disingenuous to imply that though because those long runs happened.
This guy gets it. I was going to make a similar point.
However, I do think that the overtimes (of which we've had a lot) inflate our points per game numbers.
Unsurprisingly, I'm with you on your point regarding overtime inflating our ppg numbers. I'm not trying to say our offense is good (because obviously) but just wanted to point out the misleading nature of the "if you take out x, y, and z" argumentation style.
[EDIT]: Actually overtime and defensive scores were not included in these stats. From OP "My numbers do not include any yards, points from OT and defensive scores. We have had 7 OT periods and I will not give Hoke and Borges the benefit to use those numbers to boost their god awful offense."
I was going to say, I can see leaving out OT numbers, but if you're going to throw out the "best" offensive day then you should also throw out the worst as an outlier as well, but that's a big chunk of data to lop off, so wouldn't it make more sense to just track the whole season???
Yes. That is exactly what makes sense if your goal is to go from facts to conclusion as opposed to going from conclusion to facts.
I always love people like you. Instead of simply explaining your opposing view and data models you insist on being crass and hard-nosed about it. It really makes others want to listen to you.
Here's where you respond with something like: "Whatever. I don't care and it doesn't matter to me how other users want to interpret my posts."
Keep it up man, GREAT work.
Maybe I'm not communicating well but in not sure what more you want explained. I have 3 or 4 posts in this thread about this. My "opposing view" is that removing the best offensive game from the calculation to try to prove how bad the offense is makes the stat misleading because the best game happened and represents over 1/7 of the data points. It is a bad argumentation style that has little value. Thus, if one is trying to prove the offensive is extra bad, taking that game out makes sense if your goal is to fit the stat within your already formed opinion. However, if you merely wanted to look at the facts in order to then make a conclusion about those facts, there is no need to remove the the data points and one would look at the whole season.
That is why I pointed out that if you remove the msu game, you could imply the offensive is pretty good, which is equally misleading. Also above I noted that if you take out Adrian Peterson's longest run from each game, he looks very average. Another person below pointed out that if you take out all the plays we have scored touchdowns on, then we don't have any touchdowns on the year.
You can always make stats conform to your already existing world view but what is the point? Can't cherry pick facts and act like the ones harmful to your worldview do not exist.
2008 for reference:
1st downs - 120...15/game
3rd down conversions...64/146 43.8%
yards per game...290.875 ypg
passing yards/game 137.375 ypg
rushing yards/game 153.5 ypg
3 and outs 5.875 /game
sacks too lazy to look these up sorry.
scoreless quarters 13 out of 32
Also note that these are the stats from the full BIG season and I didn't remove the minnesota game (the 2008 teams version of the indiana outlier).
I was surprised to see that we averaged less than 300 yards per game. The way Brian uses 300 as a mendoza line for Borges led me to believe that any offense should be able to get to 300 against most of its schedule. We were held below 300 yards 8 times in 2008. Not that its surprising how bad our offense was on a 3-9 team.
That team did not really have talent. Best player was either Minor (when he was healthy) or a freshman, undersized Molk. Maybe Matthews?
This one does.
I was just providing information because the OP wondered how RR first team stacked up
For me there is something just as important as an offense's yards- its how fun the offense is. Football is entertainment- so it should be entertaining or why watch? Nobody is getting paid to watch so it should be fun, right? RR's offenses were generally a lot of fun to watch (until he met great defenses). I liked the high speed nature of RR's game. I miss that these days. Even when UM's offense moves the ball under Hoke it is generally dull and seems like its in slow motion. I just don't want to watch it anymore- its just not fun to look at. I hope UM does well against OSU - but I don't want to watch them anymore, its too painful and dull. I can take a loss if its still exciting- but a dull loss is the worst of all.
If you mean the Minnesota game represented an offensive outlier in 2008, than that's fair, if you mean 2008 Minnesota = 2013 Indiana than it isn't exactly a fair statement. That Minnesota team was actually decent.
What's most troubling about comparing this offense to the 2008 offense is the fact that that comparisson is even remotely apt. The 2008 offense was younger and less experienced across the board, lacked an all-american LT and an all-conference caliber RT. The QBs were a walk-on and a RS-Fr. both of whom were extremely ill-suited for the offense, not a 4th year QB who was the number 1 ranked duel threat QB recruit in the nation who the pro scouts also loved this summer. The receiving corp lacked anyone even remotely matching the talent of Gallon and Funchess. Top it off with the 2008 offense being in year one of an extremely different system, and it's hard to imagine that this offense could rival that one as the worst in memory.
2008 was just about as bad as it gets. I remember sitting in the stands and the boos were as bad or worse than anything we have seen this year. That being said, the offense got better and better year over year. Unfortunately, we have seen it go in the opposite direction with this staff.
As bad as 2008 was, I was surprised to see how bad our total yardage numbers and 3rd down efficiency numbers are this year. That is staggering!
Stats can be manipulated any way you want to prove your point. 51% of all people know that.
It would have gotten buried elsewhere but at this point and current state of the board - like it really matters:
My biggest pet peev right now? People throwing around the term "fairweather fan" at guys who are extremely passionate about this team yet are dissatisfied with the product on the field.
If we didn't care about this team we wouldn't be posting on this board right now. "Support" for Michigan football doesn't mean we blindly cheer for mediorcrity (to put it kindly). If you feel like you want to vomit because this offense is so bad... that's the opposite of jumping off the bandwagon - that's getting sick of the bandwagon breaking down while you refuse to leave.
Yes, I hate Ohio and my soul will be tied to this team next weekend - but it pains me to see what this offense has become and while I'll always support Michigan, I can't support the coach (Al Borges) I feel is mainly responsible for the team I love being in the shitter.
No one would post a word here who didn't love the Maize and Blue more than most things in life - let's stop taking our frustrations out on each other.
I agree with all that too, but I did throw the term fairweather fan out there to people who decided to sell their OSU tickets or refuse to watch the game next weekend. Can't get much more fairweather than that.
Objectively, I couldn't agree with you more.
At the same time though, I can understand the feelings of those who wouldn't want to watch Old Yella - their beloved childhood friend - take a shotgun blast to the head.
Also, it's kind of a classic ogre's deal here: lose, and we lose to Ohio. Win, and Borges probably keeps his job for what we can reasonably expect to be another mediocre season. I'm not saying I want us to lose - I'm just saying I can understand, which makes me even sicker.
Once again, I'll be glued to my live stream next week (need to be in bed for this) but I'm not going to get self-rightous on people who are so numb inside that they're saying things they'd thought they'd never say.
I drank proba ly too much all night last night before crashing on the couch around midnite and just waking up to pee and now don't think I need to drink some more so no. But I hear you are exactly right ecxept about vomiting don't need to do that but none of us are fairweather fans just pissed at lard ass Al and most of us just want to fire him yesterday.
Good thought s too, OP! I think I posted this after the game either here or on my other forum detroitlionsforum.com, in all the years I've been a Michigan fan this is the worst screwed up mess our offense has been EVER! Those stat numbers prove it but the eye test already told me so. Fn Borges!
Back to bed not worth losing sleep over, Im getting back to bed.
Pretty much everyone is dissatified with the results right now. The problem is "fans" (not you) that will go out of their way to put a negative spin on things and always predict the worst. That's weak and fairweather.
For example, we are clearly underdogs against Ohio - most would say two touchdowns or so. But we have all kinds of folks falling all over themselves saying how bad it will be. Why? Sometimes the variance to the expectation is favorable. Why leap toward the worst possible analysis and predictions for our guys?
Fearing the worst for what you love most and attempting to mentally prepre yourself for what most people would say will be a painful experience is a natural defense mechanism.
That's probably caring a little too much (although don't tell me my love is wrong) - it's the opposite of fairweather.
Everyone deals with pain differently - let's not judge different reactions when it's all coming from the same place.
Edit: I was in the crowd back in '95 chanting "Eddie Who" (I was in middle school) - and right now I wish I was still that kid who thought Michigan would win no matter what and anyone who said otherwise was crazy (pours out a little for lost innocence)
That's not caring too much - it's being a coward.
You want to lay around and bellyache about how we're going to get blown out because you have to try and prepare yourself for the pain - what bullshit and cowardice. I hate the thought of losing as much as anyone. But I'm not going to fuck up the greatest week of the season by waving the white flag in advance.
We're dogs, so what? Two touchdown dogs don't pull upsets in rivalries? You think the staff and team are mentally preparing themselves to lose? Hell no. They are going to fight, and they'll hurt 100 times worse than you or me if they lose - but they are going to fight.
It's too bad your pain is so special you have to lay down now and not support our guys.
The offense pains everyone which (to me) isn't a license to post about recruits ditching us, calling out individual players, believing the more foul mouthed your post about the staff the more knowledgeable or passionate you are, etc.
With the exception of the Michigan State game the team has been in every game regardless of everything. I look at the Northwestern OT game, points put up in the beginning of the season, a couple of the short drives yesterday, etc. and see some positives that cannot sustain the mistakes of inexperience. I can pick out more than a half dozen 10+ yard gains that were blown up by a missed block, wrong cut or dropped pass. And I can look at the defense and see the same number of mistakes.
Point is, I have chosen to believe that Michigan, led by Hoke, will not repeat this. Nobody is dying inside more than a man who believes a season's success is based on championships and victories over rivals. And I for one hope like hell that he is successful as much for my love of the Wolverines as for the pure joy of looking up friends who see nothing but disaster.
does Terry Richardson show up with -2 yards passing with 3 attempts in the Michigan football statistics for 2013?
You don't remember when Borges put in the 5'9" defensive back in at QB? He threw it three times for -2 yards. So not great, but basically a lateral move from the typical offense.
(Just kidding, I have seen that too and have no idea where that came from.)
If you remove the plays where we've scored offensive touchdowns, the stats would show that we have not yet scored an offensive touchdown.
Laughed so hard
EDIT: nevermind, just saw it didnt include OT.
We're next to last in rushing.
Since we're manipulating statistics, what would our rushing numbers look like if sacks were counted against the passing game like the NFL?
i'm here for the posbang!
One other stat that might interest people if we're going to do the "with / without Indiana" thing is yards per play on offense. For the season to date, our average is 5.26 yards per snap, which is 79th in Division I. Without Indiana, we are tied with schools like TCU, Syracuse and Tulsa in the 103rd-104th range depending on how many places you want to calculate after the decimal.
Also interesting...that current YPP number is one spot ahead of MSU. Also, if you remove the MSU game from our season numbers that makes a YPP of 5.469 moving us ahead of northwestern, Minnesota, and Iowa thus giving us the 7th best offense in the big ten
You can't remove games. That's bush league.
The 2008 offense started off much worse than this one, but as the season progressed they improved to I believe slightly better than this one, particularly when Minor was healthy. This offense has probably not gotten worse, but has regressed in output the more they get on film as they must be one of the easiest teams in football to scout and prep for.
Interesting post and something I was wondering just yesterday but too lazy to compile. Quick question: when you took out the IU numbers, did you also remove that one game from the divisor value?
PS - I apologize if my question seems condescending. I blame my career and my OCD.
I don't think he did based on quick math in my head
We have talent on offense, but I can't quite put my finger on why they seem so uncoordinated. At times, they seem to behave like those players from those old electric, vibrating football games.
The offense was so much better before the interior OL shuffle. Do these numbers correspond to changes in the OL?
We can all agree, this year s offense is truly, genuinely, purely offensive.
Worst part is we're clearly regressing... I looked at those numbers and thought, "Against any team we might play in the future this year, I'll take those in a heartbeat."
They're 2nd to last in the nation in TFLs allowed.
In conference games only, they're dead last in the nation in TFLs allowed (by a mile). That's the stat of the year... oh, and OSU leads the league in sacks... plane meet mountain.
I love my first post!