Michigan vs. MSU betting lines

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October 1st, 2009 at 9:46 PM
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HartAttack20
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Michigan vs. MSU betting lines

Oct. 3 Michigan
9 a.m. at Michigan St
Favorite MICH MICH MICH
Point spread -3½ -3½ -3½
Total 56o/u 56o/u 56o/u
Total money line -110 -110 -110

This is straight off of Vegas.com.
I hope this wasn't posted yet, but a quick search and scroll through a couple pages showed nothing.
I figured this was as good of a time as any to figure out the betting system and get a post out there to get some thoughts on the game. Now the first two lines I understand. Michigan is favored by 3.5 points. I'm guessing the next line is 56 over/under, which I would assume means the total points expected to be scored in the game. The final line I don't understand so if somebody wants to explain that I would be totally caught up.

At this point it's obvious that we should be the favorite in this one. May seem a little low to me, but I think this will be a close game, so i'm not surprised. Thoughts?
Link:
http://www2.vegas.com/gaming/sportsline_ncaaf.html

I can only continue to reference the fact that I live in an onion factory.

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October 1st, 2009 at 9:56 PM | hmm (Score:1)
MH20
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I thought State was a 3-point favorite.

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October 1st, 2009 at 10:01 PM | Michigan is getting 3.5 on (Score:1)
sjastrz
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Michigan is getting 3.5 on sportsbook.com

http://www.sportsbook.com/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=football

October 1st, 2009 at 10:07 PM | sportsbook's line (Score:1)
octal9
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keeps moving in MSUs favor. It was MSU -2.0 on Monday or Tuesday.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:09 PM | They all have been moving (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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to State's favor.

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October 1st, 2009 at 10:07 PM | The lines have been all over the place (Score:1)
Dred Scott
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The serious players will make big dollars if this is a close game.

Check the movement

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movemen...

Everyone has a plan...until they get punched in the mouth.

October 2nd, 2009 at 8:04 AM | I'm not a big gambler-does that mean the big players are (Score:1)
wolverine1987
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are supporting Sparty?

"Everyone gets dumped Gabe. Let me give you some advice: a little coverup on your Adams Apple will make it appear smaller. Which will make you appear less like a transvestite." 

October 1st, 2009 at 10:04 PM | Total money line (Score:1)
Section 1
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Basically means that if you give the bookie $110 for Michigan to win the game, you'll win $100.

 

 

October 1st, 2009 at 10:08 PM | So... (Score:1)
HartAttack20
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basically how much you need to dish out to win $100?

I can only continue to reference the fact that I live in an onion factory.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:32 PM | If Michigan is listed as +140 (Score:1)
sjastrz
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If Michigan is listed as +140 on the money line that means if you bet $100 and Michigan wins, you win $145. State is listed as -160 so if you bet $160 on State to win and they do, you win $100.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:42 PM | Yes (Score:1)
HeismanPose
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That is correct. A $110 bet wins $100, but loses $110. Here is a link to yahoo's college football odds page:

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/odds

Notice that all O/U and pointspread bets are -110. That is how casinos and bookies make their money. If you bet $50 and lose, you lose $50. If you bet $50 and win, you win $45.45 ($50*10/11). Casinos want even money on both sides so they are guaranteed that 1/11 profit on the winning bets. If they have even money on each side of the bet, it doesn't matter what happens in the game.

Michigan +3.5 means Michigan is the underdog. Home teams usually get a 2-3 point advantage, so bettors think the teams are basically even. That is a little surprising, actually (we ARE 4-0). If Michigan beats Indiana convincingly last week, they are probably a 3-4 point favorite. People are not high on our defense right now.

October 1st, 2009 at 11:00 PM | Correct me if I'm wrong, but... (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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if you win, you get your original bet back plus the winnings. So in your example above, if you bet $50 and lose, you are out your $50. But if you bet $50 and win, you get your $50 back plus $45.45 = $95.45.

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October 1st, 2009 at 11:11 PM | Right (Score:1)
HeismanPose
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If you're in Vegas at a sportsbook, you will pay $50 up front. If you lose, your $50 is gone. If you win, you get the $50 back + your winnings, so $94.45 altogether. You usually don't pay bookies up front, though, so they will probably just add the $45.45 to your total. I'm talking monopoly money, of course. :)

October 1st, 2009 at 11:14 PM | I figured out after I posted... (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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that that was what you meant. I need to work on my Reeding com-pre-hen-shun.

Apologies for piggybacking.

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October 1st, 2009 at 10:05 PM | No (Score:1)
rlew
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Michigan State is up to a 3 1/2 point favorite on bodog. I assume the line cited in the OP is State (-3 1/2).

October 1st, 2009 at 10:13 PM | Incorrect... (Score:1)
HartAttack20
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I took that little chart straight from vegas.com. That's how it shows up there. Michigan is favored. As said by other posters, the lines have been all over the place.

I can only continue to reference the fact that I live in an onion factory.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:36 PM | Never mind I clicked on a (Score:1)
ohio-michiganfan
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Never mind I clicked on a wrong link. Thats wierd though that they are underdogs everywhere else.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:06 PM | I'd definitely take the over (Score:1)
jrt336
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I'd definitely take the over on this one. I'd be surprised if 70 points weren't scored.

October 1st, 2009 at 11:10 PM | Weather may impact scoring... (Score:1)
cps2010
Joined: 08/08/2009
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...consistent rain and winds at 16 mph (weather.com) may make it hard to score points, especially for the Sparties.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:06 PM | State is favored (Score:1)
YVD4Heisman
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by 3 1/2. Not sure if the MICH actually stands for Michigan or Michigan State, but State's pretty much a consensus 3-3.5 point favorite on most betting sites.

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October 1st, 2009 at 11:10 PM | It has to be that they list Michigan State as "MICH" (Score:1)
Section 1
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Sort of like their listing PSU as "PENN."

Yes, right now MSU is a 3-3.5 point favorite.

And yes, I have to believe that Vegas is counting on a compromised Tate Forcier, and is either not accounting for, or is not believing, Rich Rod's statement about what Forcier can do.

 

 

October 1st, 2009 at 10:07 PM | That's not right. (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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The line opened at MSU +1 and has moved steadily to MSU -3.5.

Go to oddsshark.com to compare lines from actual places that accept bets. Vegas.com is a travel website.

A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com

October 1st, 2009 at 10:16 PM | I understand... (Score:1)
HartAttack20
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that vegas.com is a travel website but that's the first thing I found. Seems legit that they took it from MGM and two other places, but I guess my bad on taking it from a possible faulty site. OP has been served.

I can only continue to reference the fact that I live in an onion factory.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:15 PM | Rain (Score:1)
cooler 517
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could keep the score low, and make for a sloppy game! I like the under

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October 1st, 2009 at 10:22 PM | I think both of these teams (Score:1)
Big Boutros
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I think both of these teams have proven that taking the over is a safe bet no matter the line.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:21 PM | Spartan money???!!! (Score:1)
Tater
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It's obvious that someone is betting on MSU and moving the odds along. Are there that many more Spartans betting on the game than Wolverines, or are the "objective" bettors drinking MSU kool-aid? Or is the "Michigan is winning with smoke and mirrors" storyline influencing bettors?

Whatever, I hope those betting on Sparty take a bath on Saturday.

 

 

 

October 1st, 2009 at 10:55 PM | It takes a lot of "someones"... (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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...to get the *all* the lines to move by that magnitude and in that direction. Very doubtful that it's "Spartan Money" or MSU fans.

Objective bettors don't drink kool-aid.

A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com

October 1st, 2009 at 10:26 PM | shoulder (Score:1)
entirely reasonable
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tate's shoulder is moving those lines. this comment moved it 1.5 points:
"I fully expect (Forcier) to be ready to go and do everything," Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez said before practice Wednesday.

"Play hard and with great effort"

October 1st, 2009 at 10:47 PM | That comment... (Score:1)
MGoBlog Fan
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...moved it 1.5 points *toward* MSU? Guess they aren't buying it that he's healthy.

I've been watching the line with interest. It hasn't been "all over the place", it's been steadily moving toward MSU, Both Vegas and offshore. Check it out:

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/line-movemen...

OBTW, Sportsbook is now MSU -4.

A Reasonable Sparty Blog? Yes, it's possible! www.theonlycolors.com

October 1st, 2009 at 10:49 PM | It was MSU -2.5 this morning, (Score:1)
noshesnot
Joined: 12/09/2008
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It was MSU -2.5 this morning, MSU -3.0 before the injury report, and MSU -3.5 after the injury report. I think the smart oddsmakers are agreeing that:
1. It's odd Tate isn't even listed as "probable".
2. Floyd is starting in place of Cissoko
3. MSU is 1-3 and NEEDS this win more than Michigan NEEDS this win.

#3 is a little weak, but 1 and 2 are strong.

October 1st, 2009 at 10:53 PM | Its certainly weird (Score:1)
tricks574
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I don't get why MSU is favored. It doesn't make any sense. Not that it matters, its just weird.

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October 1st, 2009 at 11:00 PM | it's not that weird. Ya, (Score:1)
noshesnot
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it's not that weird. Ya, it's State, but they've lost two games that they could easily have won, and we've won two games that we could easily have lost. We are traveling away from home with a metric ass ton of young folks who will be playing on the road for the first time this season/their college careers. State is State, and now their season rests on this game, even more than it normally does.

Also, it's going to be rainy - not good for a team with fumbling issues.

October 2nd, 2009 at 4:19 AM | besides (Score:1)
Double Nickel BG
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the bad snaps and Robinsons fumble, what fumbling issues are you talking about?

I think we've done a hell of a job holding onto the ball this year.

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October 2nd, 2009 at 9:43 AM | That's what I'm talking (Score:1)
noshesnot
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That's what I'm talking about.

October 2nd, 2009 at 8:33 AM | I wouldn't be surprised if (Score:1)
ScoobyBlue
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I wouldn't be surprised if the betting volume is lower for this game. There are so many variables heading into this game. First road game for the freshman QBs, UM's defense vs a power running team, will a State QB show up, can State handle the spread? I would think there are several other games that would be easier to pick.

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