Michigan under-7 wins considered great bet by betting analyst
ESPN Insider often has articles on betting. I was casually reading an article today, and I was shocked when I saw the first bet this Vegasinsider.com betting analyst liked was "Michigan - Under 7 Wins." Wow. I really hope he's wrong....
Michigan Wolverines, Seven wins
Edwards says: "With Michigan, the more losses it gets the more the chemistry will be messed up, and then it's a lame-duck situation for Rich Rodriguez and things snowball. They could lose Week 1 at UConn and then at Notre Dame to be 0-2. Even if they bounce back to win their next two games, which should be gimmes, they then have Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa and Penn State. Those could be two or three more losses. After that, this team could quit on Rich Rod. By the time they get to the Horseshoe in Columbus, he could be on his way out the door. UNDER."
I call on all rival fans to place their entire nest egg on this bet.
on Edwards to place his whole nest egg on that bet. What an uinformed jackass.
I wish I weren't serious. I cannot wait forty more days. Hail.
But I think I love this one even more
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFZ9e3tonSo&feature=related
(Sorry, I can't preview the post and I'm afraid of screwing up the code)
watched this video over 100 times and it has to be one of the most inspirational "get up after getting knocked down" football videos of all time. IMO.
Gives me chills every time...
That one goes without saying.
I can't wait for the day when we don't have inspirational underdog hype videos, despite how awesome they can be.
Great, keep those bets up to move the over/under line to 6; I'm comfortable betting on 7 wins.
one huge goat fuck. My money's on M for 8-9.
I think betting on the over or under for this team would just be an awful bet. There are so many potential positive things that could happen with the offense, and negative things that could happen with the defense I don't feel I could say either was a great bet at this point.
Unless it's the scoring over/under, before we put up triple digits on MSU.
People who don't find the games interesting in their own right should maybe just not watch. Betting on the games cheapens the sport and disrespects the athletes.
I can't trust myself to bet on Michigan games but I'll bet on pretty much any other type of competition. I don't feel like I'm disrespecting the athletes. If anything I'm respecting them enough that I believe I can trust my hard earned money in their performance. Plus it gives me a reason to watch some games that I otherwise wouldn't care about and in the long run I probably end up watching more games. You can't honestly say you are glued to the tv for some of the more meaningless games
you take cover before jamiemac gets here.
/sarcasm.
... and said he was on crack when he wrote that. What he meant to write was this:
"With Michigan, the more wins it gets the more the chemistry will click, and then it's a sky's-the-limit situation for Rich Rodriguez and things snowball. They could win week one against UConn and then at Notre Dame to be 2-0. Even if they bounce back to win their next two games, which should be gimmies, then they have Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa, and Penn State. Those could be two or three more wins. After that, this team will have all the confidence in the world in Rich Rod. By the time they get to the Horseshoe in Columbus, he could be on his way to a contract extension." OVER
Interesting side note, last year according to the site below, the O/U on wins was 6.5. Not sure what I am thinking this even means, but IMO this team seems better than last years.
http://www.nsawins.com/betting/college-football/2009-college-football-t…..
Once the season is said and done. Everyone will be calling Michigan "most overachieving" or "biggest underdog" team of the year. GO BLUE!
I try not to concern myself with what some Vegas insider thinks is the O/U on UofM victories.
The O/U on me giving a crap is 0. Bet the under.
I'm pretty sure the oddsmakers said 7 wins was a safe bet in 2008, too. IT GOES BOTH WAYS BIATCHES
Go Blue !!!!
Look how many times the guy mentions "could" or "should" in his analysis. Edwards could be just writing out of his ass. Or he could be just a douche and setting a line that he thinks will get the most action. After this article, he could go get herpes from a transvestite hooker.
I hope all of the negativity and bashing is clearly shared with the players. Motivation is a helluva drug...
who said neither the over or under is a good bet ...
college sports have a ton of random preformances anyway making them a poor bet ... but this michigan team really could go either way to the point i wouldn't be surprised if we win 9 or lose 8 ... also i try to never put more than $5 on a team i know i love to much too not see them through homer goggles
If we use the old Enron accounting we can just declare 7 wins after the first game.
Did he go to one of are rivals or something.can't wait till we prove everbody wrong.GO MICHIGAN
from Klumbus?
The number, and the bet on a number, is made interesting by all of the punditry that is interested in talking about a set number of wins that is somehow needed for Rich Rodriguez to keep his job. The more that sportwriters and radio guys talk about it, the more interest there is. The more interest there is, the more bets there might be. The more bets there might be, the more people will buy sportspages and ad-time on sportstalk radio.
It all gets blown up when Dave Brandon says something like, "No, none of that matters to me. That's not at all the basis on which I will be judging progress and renewing Coach Rodriguez's contract after the season."
Is there a worse month, in all of college football, than July? This is the month in which all we have to do is to read stuff by sportswriters from Las Vegas, about teams that they hardly know anything about, and have barely seen on television.
Of course the team could have a bad season, but he didn't give a single reason why we should have a bad season apart from an unsupported assertion that we have bad chemistry. The technical term for that is "talking out your ass".
See the post above that changes the tone to be positive, and it sounds just as likely.
...RR is secretly smiling like the Cheshire cat. More of his offense will be unleashed incrementally against unsuspecting opponents. Plus, Michigan's D will be much improved.
That's why I see 8 wins, possibly 9. I truly think we're going to instill fear in our opponents once again.
With Michigan, the more losses it gets the more the chemistry will be messed up.
Whereas with other teams, the chemistry gets better when they lose more?
...everyone would be doing it.
After that, this team could quit on Rich Rod.
That is the most BS statement in the whole thing. There is no way I believe that this team will ever give up on the coach(es) or the season. Won't happen.
HOLD THE ROPE, BOYS,
HOLD THE ROPE!!!!!!!!!!!
with ESPN, the same bet is to take their suggested bet and do the complete opposite. ESPN is like George Constanza. Doing the exact opposite of what they suggest only brings success.
Its not a secret that the popular opinion is usually incorrect when dealing with vegas lines. I (personally) wouldn’t be contrarian for contrarian’s sake, but if the vegas line is at 7 for u/o and the money is being laid on the under it may move to 6.5 ………..at which point I like (errr love) the over.
My bet is on the over if it drops to 6.5. The wins are Uconn, Umass, BGSU, Indiana, Purdue, and Illinois……..then we just need to pull one from Iowa, ND, Wisky, OSU, MSU, or PSU…….I like our chances against MSU, ND, Iowa, and PSU……love the over..........<disclaimer> Its fucking football and crazy shit will happen....that being said, I still think kwe will go 7-5 or better. We probably wont win all the gimmie's listed, but perhaps we will win two or more of the "maybe's".
I'm giving you +1 for the leprechaun avatar
To figure it out, you don't go through each game and decide whether it's a win or a loss - you need to assign probabilities to each individual game.
For instance, one man's guess random guess at our odds to win:
UConn - 60%
@ ND - 35%
UMass - 98%
Bowling Green - 90%
@ Indiana - 60%
Michigan State - 50%
Iowa - 35%
@ Penn State - 20%
Illinois - 90%
@ Purdue - 40%
Wisconsin - 45%
@ OSU - 15%
Add those up, and we have an "equity" of 6.38 wins here. Your mileage may vary if you think we're likely to be significantly better or worse than this. The optimistic view has us like 35% chance against OSU and PSU I guess, and even money vs. Purdue, ND, etc...
I think it's more like this:
UConn - 70%
@ ND - 50%
UMass - 98%
Bowling Green - 90%
@ Indiana - 70%
Michigan State - 50%
Iowa - 35%
@ Penn State - 35%
Illinois - 80%
@ Purdue - 65%
Wisconsin - 25%
@ OSU - 15%
that's less than 7 wins in your probabilities above. i hope we do better than that.
Well there are 6 games we should win. Hopefully we don't lose any of those. Than we can beat at least one of ND and MSU, so that's 7. We could pull off an upset against PSU or Iowa, but we could also drop one to Purdue or even Indiana or Uconn. So I think 7 wins is the most likely.
that you've severely overestimated both penn st and iowa. i also don't think wisconsin or ohio st. are as good as you've made them here. i mean, a 25% chance of winning a home game ? you lost me there
At Penn State at night is always tough. If it was at home, I'd probably say 50-50. Iowa is overrated, but they're still good. Maybe it's more like a 40% chance, but it's unlikely that we win, even after we played them well last season. I think Wisconsin is going to be very, very good. Tolzein was the most efficient passer, Clay is a beast, their Oline might be the best in the country, and their WRs are good, especially Toon. Their D will be good too. I couldn't see us winning more than 1 out of 4 times. I think Wisconsin is just slightly less good than OSU. I wouldn't go higher than a 30% chance to win that game.
is only tough if they're good. if they suck it's the same as playing them during the day. my reasoning is that they have no QB, lost some of their OL, and all three of their LBs. they probably won't be very good so that night environment will count for very little.
i think wisconsin is a team that is easily exploited by teams that spread them out. they also don't have the ability to come back from an early deficit. those are two things that this offense, in year 3, will be able to do.
Obviously there will be a significant drop off at QB and LB for PSU, but I think every other position group will be at least as good, and most will be better. They will be worse than last year, but I think they are at least as good as we are. We'll score points on Wisky, but I just don't know if we can stop their offense. They put up close to 500 yards on us last year. Clay had 150 yards and Tolzein threw for 240 and 4 TDs. Their offense should be even better because of their Oline. IIRC, Graham had a big day in that game. I just don't see us stopping them.
The prediction seems more of a stretch than an actual analysis. For one, nobody with sniff of common sense believes we'll be 0-2 to start the season. UConn will write us off just as the media has and most likely underprepare for a team that is hungry and is home for the opener. And I just don't believe that Notre Dumb is going to be the kings of college football like everyone is trying sell. This guy is giving bad advice which is most likely directed to make more for the Vegas purse rather than the average better.
other than a view of Michigan's (and its opponents') personnel. As though teams' futures were predetermined, based on who they've got to play for them.
I'm actually okay with that, as far as that goes. If that's what you're into.
But if the punditry wants to claim that the Michigan Wolverines will not or cannot win 7 or more games based on what the roster looks like, then why would those pundits claim that Rich Rodriguez must produce more than 7 wins this year in order to keep his job?
I think I will wait and see what Art Schlichter thinks, lead pipe locks, can't lose picks and such.