Michigan SB falls one spot to #2,

Submitted by MGoSoftball on

The Michigan softball team dropped one spot in both the Coaches Poll and the USA Softball Poll.  Both have us at #2.  This is not a surprise as we lost to Iowa while Arizona State beat a very good Arizona team, 3 straight.  'Zona was a top 10 team heading into its series with arch-rival ASU.

The top 5 are: 1) ASU, 2) Michigan, 3) Texas, 4) Georgia and 5) Tennessee/Florida.  There seems to be some debate over the number 5 slot.  Florida just came off a awesome series against Alabama where they took 2 of 3.  'Bama was a top 5 team this past weekend.

This is GREAT news because there was some concern that we would drop to #3 because Iowa is not ranked.  Where as the others in the top 5 have been playing ranked teams.

The rest of the schedule is awesome for us.  We play at Wiscy (DH), then we come home to  Minny (DH), tosu (DH),  EMU and a home and home against Lil' sister to wrap up the regular season.  The remaining conference opponents have a combined 14 wins, whereas we have 10 conference wins.  EMU is struggling this year. 

So here is the bad news.  JT is out; probably for the reminder of the regular season.  This means that Spidy and Maj. Payne will have the honors.  If we lose any of the upcoming games, we will need a MGo-Parachute to help stop the free fall.  We will get killed in the polls because the Big 10 is a weak conference, coupled with the fact that a loss will come from the bottom of said weak conference.  It is possible that we could loose a home site for the regionals.

Let's just hope that Spidy can get her game together and not need a bailout early in any game.  A last inning or two relief should not hurt but if she gets into trouble early, Lord help us.

mgoblue52

April 26th, 2011 at 2:00 PM ^

Sorry if this is a dumb question because I haven't been following that closely, but you said JT is out for the regular season.  Do you think there's a chance she'll be back for the postseason?

MGoSoftball

April 26th, 2011 at 2:07 PM ^

guarded secret. I dont think the NSA can find the answer. Hutch was giving cryptic answers and a previous poster "knows someone close to the situation" and that person isnt saying much.

If I were a betting man, I would put her return at 50/50 in the regular season. As for the tourney? That is anyone's guess.

Sgt.Rock

April 26th, 2011 at 5:28 PM ^

If JT is out for the duration, I don't like our chances one bit.  Come on people, we got Wikileaks releasing classified documents about the Club Gitmo inmates and we can't find out the real details on a college pitcher (women's softball at that).  Weak sauce people !

btjabrone

April 26th, 2011 at 6:19 PM ^

MGoSoftball, can you explain how teams get picked to host regionals/superregionals? I'm going to be in Ann Arbor during superregionals and was sort of assuming I'd get to see the softball team play. Is that probably not going to happen?

MGoSoftball

April 26th, 2011 at 7:00 PM ^

There are 64 teams that make the post season.  30 teams are from the various conference championships.  These are called "automatic bids"  The remaining 34 teams come from "at-large" bids as determined by the tournament Committee.

In my humble opinion, softball is the best and fairest way to crown a National Champion.  I know there are many who will disagree with me but the tournament is unique in that it features three tiers of competition and a loss doesn't necessarily eliminate a team from contention. In fact, throughout the entire tournament, a team can lose a total of four games and still be crowned champions.

During team selection the top sixteen teams are given "national seeds", which are used for organizing the brackets. The first tier, called "regionals", consists of 16 locations that include four teams competing in a double elimination bracket.  The regional containing overall #1 seed will be matched up with the regional containing the overall #16 seed, the #2 seed will be matched up with the #15 seed, and so on.

Once the "National Seedings" are set, the Tournament Committee fills in the remaining 3 teams from the remaining 48 teams.  Typically, these teams are selected by geography.  For example, last year we were a #2 National Seed.  We were paired in the super regional with #15 Tennessee.  The remaining 3 teams for our regional was Wright State, Illinois State, and ND.   Tennessee's regional had Ball State, Louisville and Virginia.

The winner of each regional moves on to the second tier, the "super regionals".  So the national polls are meaningless because the seedings do not occur until the automatic bids are determined.  I suppose the national rankings affect recruiting to some extent.

The super regionals are played at eight locations throughout the country and consist of the 16 surviving teams, with the higher seeded team usually hosting. Two teams are matched up at each location and they play a best-of-three series to determine who moves on to the Women's College World Series.

The final eight teams meet in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma in the Women's College World Series. This is the home to USA Softball. The WCWS is further divided into two sections. The first part resembles the regional tier, as teams are broken in two groups of four to play in a double-elimination bracket. The winners of each bracket then meet in a championship series, held at the ASA Hall of Fame Stadium, which is similar to the super regional tier in that it is a best-of-three series. The winner of the WCWS is crowned national champion.

So a team can have a bad game and come back and win the NC.  This is unique from football and basketball.  NCAA Hockey is being reviewed to possibly go to a double elimination tournament.  That decision is still TBD.

Alton

April 26th, 2011 at 7:05 PM ^

I can help.

There are 16 regionals.  The hosts are distributed geographically, because there is a "fewest flights" rule that the NCAA has to follow.  That is, they arrange the regionals so that the smallest number of teams possible have to travel more than 400 miles to their regional.  What this means for Michigan is that they are essentially guaranteed to host a regional even if they go 0-9 over their last 9 games, which won't even come close to happening.  There has to be a regional in the area (to accommodate us, Notre Dame, the MAC champion and Illinois State or Southern Illinois or DePaul).  We only need to finish higher than Notre Dame, and we're a host.  I think we have already wrapped that up.  We do need to be a top-16 seed to be 100 percent confident, though, but I still think we have that wrapped up as well.

There are only 8 super-regionals, and they are paired by seed.  The winner of the regional with the #1 seed plays the winner of the regional with the #16 seed.  All super-regionals are at the higher seed, so if a team is seeded in the top 8 and wins their regional, they are guaranteed to host a super-regional.  Michigan should be a top 8 seed as long as they finish 6-3 or so, which should be easily doable.  Of course, to host the super-regional, they need to win their regional, which might become a close proposition if they don't have Jordan Taylor.

Overall, I would say even without Jordan Taylor Michigan is 99 percent certain to host a regional and about 75 percent certain to host a super-regional. 

Alton

April 26th, 2011 at 7:28 PM ^

Okay, you're right, I just looked at the standings.  I didn't realize Notre Dame was doing so well this year--they might get a top-16 seed themselves!  It's possible that Michigan will finally play a regional without Notre Dame in it.

I will be interested to see the new RPI; we were only #9 last week and we lost a game to #57 Iowa after sweeping #48 Penn State.  I'm starting to get nervous about the RPI; it seems like Michigan might not get a top-8 national seed unless they can finish strong against a weak schedule.  The difference between the polls and the RPI is bigger than usual.

 

MGoSoftball

April 26th, 2011 at 7:14 PM ^

The top 8 National Seeds get to host regional and super regionals.  The next 8 national seeds get to host regional and the winner will travel to the super regional.

So I think you have a better than 50/50 chance to see us hosting a super regional.  I cant imagine us losing anymore games but I dont want to jinx us.  Even if we remain a #2 ranking in the polls, that should be good enough to warrant a top 8 national seed.  Also I believe we have an 90/10 chance of hosting a regional.  The only way we dont host a regional is if JT remains out and Spidey falls apart.  Spidey has been shaky but I cant imagine her falling apart and losing 2 or more games.  The remaining teams are weak.

Remember, we are the only team east of the Mississippi River to win a NC so we have some clout.  So if all things are equal, I would bet the tournament committee would give us the super regional over an SEC team.

Alton

April 26th, 2011 at 7:22 PM ^

There is a geographic element in hosting regionals, so a team in this part of the country doesn't even have to be a top 16 seed to host.

Last year, 4 top 16 seeds did not host regionals.  #11 seed California did not host a regional, they traveled to Ohio State.  #13 seed Arizona State did not host a regional, they traveled to Massachusetts.  #14 seed Oklahoma did not host a regional, they traveled to Maryland.  #16 seed Hawaii did not host a regional, they traveled to Stanford.

Note that all 4 teams were shipped from west of the Mississippi to a site at least a thousand miles northeast of them.  Michigan will take advantage of that if they are not a top-16 seed, as long as they are seeded higher than other teams in the region.

Of course, this year Michigan should have a top 16 seed already wrapped up, so that won't come into play.

Scorekeeper

April 26th, 2011 at 9:22 PM ^

Alton is correct.  With all the power concentrated in the PAC10 and SEC, sometimes a top 8 seed is shipped out of town for a regional.  They are the #1 seed in the regional they visit, usually with the host as #2.

If all goes well for the team that didn't get to host a regional, they end up getting to host the Super Regional. 

There are also field requirements - need lights, seating for a certain number of fans, and want to host.  Lights are much less necessary for the Super Regionals because only 3 games are being played.  The regionals involve a double-elimination for 4 teams.

 

MGoSoftball

April 26th, 2011 at 10:14 PM ^

typical.  There are many reasons why a team would not host a regional but remain the highest seed.  Obviously Hawaii would not host a regional because it would cost more money to fly 3 teams to Hawaii than 1 team (Hawaii) to California.  I will check but I would be surprised if Hawaii ever hosted a regional.

Last year only 4 teams (all with lower seeds) traveled.  It just makes more sense to make 1 team travel than 3 teams. especially with $4 gas.