Michigan Opens as 3 Point Favorite; Now 7
Looks like the open line was 3 (column 1) and is up to 7ish (2nd column)
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/
Since we are in playoffs watch (playoffs?!)
- LSU opens 7.5 over Florida, down to 4.5
- Alabama open 3 over A&M, up to 3.5
- Stanford opens 4.5 over UCLA, up to 5
- Iowa opens 3 over Northwestern, down to 2.5
- Utah opens 7 over ASU, down to 6.5
- OSU opens 21 (!!) over PSU, down to 17
So money coming in on UM and UF (and PSU) the most early.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:16 PM ^
To play against our D requires 12 linemen playing 150%. So they have a problem.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:55 PM ^
Yeah, for Allen to go from not being able to put any weight at all on his leg to being good to go in a week is going to take some serious medical marvels.
October 11th, 2015 at 6:16 PM ^
oscar goldman?
October 11th, 2015 at 7:06 PM ^
The kind that happened regularly when Narduzzi was there but don't seem to be happening this year. Hmmmmmm
October 11th, 2015 at 5:31 PM ^
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October 11th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
You know he's using this as motivation the whole week for his squadron of goons.
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October 11th, 2015 at 4:04 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 4:39 PM ^
That disrespect thing can only last so long.
October 11th, 2015 at 6:37 PM ^
Dantonio counts microaggressions.
October 11th, 2015 at 7:28 PM ^
his Tumblr is just complaints of Maize&Blue privilege
October 11th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
We went from being in a can't lose situation to now having pressure on us to win. I hope we rent out the submarine for the week.
October 11th, 2015 at 9:26 PM ^
If you compare AP rankings to SRS ratings, MSU is 29 points too high:
Most Overrated among ranked teams:
Michigan St. (#7 AP, #36 SRS) -29
Ole Miss (#13 AP, #38 SRS) -25
Iowa (#17 AP, #39 SRS) -22
Most Underrated:
Oklahoma (#19 AP, #5 SRS) +14
Michigan (#12 AP, #1 SRS) +11
Alabama (#10 AP, #2 SRS) +8
The Vegas line is only partially making up for this perception skew. Looking at data from this season only, the line should be 15 to 20.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:06 PM ^
I'd lean to Florida.
LSU is 14th in (unadjusted) total defense. I dunno. Eastern Michigan moved it on them for a while. Now EMU isn't horrible. They're 71st, but still. (And lol, MSU is 72nd.)
LSU is 122nd in pasing yards (unadjusted).
Together that seems to me liket they're running on one ableit, big, fast, and nimble engine.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
I'd learn towards picking Florida too since they've been playing like a more complete team and LSU seems to be a plus version of Georgia -- they go as their stud RB goes.
But the game is in Baton Rouge at night, and that's a tough place to play. So who the hell knows.
October 11th, 2015 at 7:12 PM ^
but I wouldn't touch it. Will be very tight, a fluky play could swing it in any direction. If it got back up to LSU -7.5 I'd feel more confident about taking Florida. My formula has LSU winning this game by 2, which basically means the game will be decided by a single score either way.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^
If Dantonio loses THIS year to UM it would be a huge blow, possibly monumental. Everyone said it would take 2-3 years.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:13 PM ^
And everyone had MSU a playoff contender for most of September.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
I've thought this in previous years and turned out to be wrong, but I think it's pretty much near the end of the line for Dantonio's glorious run at MSU. I credit him for what he's been able to accomplish given the limitations of the program he took over, but he's milked out everything he can, and the pendulum has been swinging back to the mean for two years now.
Despite their success, their recruiting classes have still been middle-of-the-pack in the Big Ten the past four or five years (25-45 nationally every year). And while Dantonio and Narduzzi have done some impressive things with middling talent, I think they've been extraordinarily lucky the way a lot of their stud two-star guys have turned out (or extraordinarily steroidy). It's not a sustainable strategy to count of turning two- and three-star kids into All Americans. You need to get raw talent and athleticism at some point.
There's a ton riding on the game this week for Dantonio and his program, and he knows it. If they lose, I see it being the begining of the end of this golden age at MSU. Either way, I think starting next year, they fade back into the Wisconsin, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State second-tier pack.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:36 PM ^
they had 2 great classes back to back (2010/2011)
Cook Calhoun Waynes Dennard Allen Bell Bullough Davis and so forth and so on etc. Guys like Cook Bell Calhoun Dennard Waynes were guys at the bottom of those classes in rank. Those guys are now in the NFL or in their last year. The early returns on 2012 and 2013 are not quite as good.
This class (2016) is very good on paper so I dont think MSU is going anywhere. Guys like LJ Scott are guys everyone wanted - they used to have to go find a Bell, now they get a LJ Scott. I just want them to be a 9 win team rather than 11 the rest of Dantonio's tenure. Once Dantonio is gone all bets are off as we know a coaching change means everything.
By the way next year I expect a 8-9 win team as they lose 15 5th year seniors (incl QB) and Conklin should be in the NFL. They are still a well coached team with good talent playing in an awful conference. And a coaching staff with good eye finding talent.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
While still very good the defense has taken a noticable step back. Rutgers drove 90 yards for a game tying field goal last night. A Narduzzi-led defense would not have allowed that.
October 11th, 2015 at 10:46 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 4:59 PM ^
I disagree. Their 2010 and 2011 classes were just like all their others: 25th to 45th range. They just happened to strike gold on a few of the two- and three-star guys. Like I said, that's not a sustainable strategy to count on that happening every class.
Their 2016 looks good right now, but there are only a couple of really blue chip guys in there. They'll always pull a couple of national recruits, but so does Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, and Maryland every once in awhile.
It's been remarkable, by all accounts, what Dantonio has managed to do there the past six years. But it's been the confluence of fortunate events. It's about over now. Once Cook, Burbridge, Calhoun, and some of the OL are gone, I think they'll be back to normal.
October 11th, 2015 at 5:29 PM ^
They've got some guys in the pipeline, but they're definitely not looking as well-coached defensively with Narduzzi gone. And they're not too likely to win recruiting battles with us or OSU going forward.
From here on out they'll probably be an underdog everytime they play us and the Buckeyes. Sans Narduzzi, I'm not certain they can pull the upset too often. Maybe they can hold the fort against the rest of their opponents, but they sure look like a leaky ship at the moment. I think it's quite likely they return to the 8-4 level after this year (and actually it wouldn't shock me if they ended up dropping four games even this year, with Michigan, PSU, OSU and a bowl opponent to come).
October 11th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^
"Everyone" meaning MSU fans.
October 11th, 2015 at 5:10 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 6:52 PM ^
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October 11th, 2015 at 7:21 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 7:22 PM ^
Dantonio is a very good coach but he was fortunate to be facing Brady Hoke, the Brian Ellerbe of football. This year Michigan has a decisive coaching edge particularly when you include assistants.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:12 PM ^
It feeds the disrespect engine that runs his program. I fully expect MSU to come out guns blazing.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 6:23 PM ^
i would guarantee that dantonio plasters the vegas betting line all over the locker room this week.
October 11th, 2015 at 7:32 PM ^
The better team wins 95% of the time in this series. Do we have the better team? I think we do, at least this Saturday.
October 11th, 2015 at 8:28 PM ^
This is one of the most overrated aspects to the outcome of the game. I'm sure harbaugh can find stuff to plaster on the walls...add that to the fact that most of the players on our team have only been pounded by MSU, I don't think there is really any need for bulletin board material. Until I have a reason to not beleive it...I trust harbaugh has a good sense of how to motivate his team and a great understanding of the rivalry.
October 11th, 2015 at 10:52 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 4:21 PM ^
must be moving as even the spartan's plane is getting injuried...
http://www.mlive.com/spartans/index.ssf/2015/10/plane_issues_ground_mic…
October 11th, 2015 at 4:21 PM ^
double post
October 11th, 2015 at 4:21 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 4:31 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 9:34 PM ^
You are correct.
Further, I'm pretty sure of it.
I'm also pretty sure BYU and Northwestern are better than MSU.
October 11th, 2015 at 5:33 PM ^
I just don't believe that State has "excellent players." Cook, Calhoun, and couple of their offensive linemen are pretty good, but across the board, we have way, way more talent than MSU. Always have and always will.
October 11th, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^
have some pretty good WRs, TE and RBs. they have a lot of talent on offense and on the DLine. they still should be able to outscore most teams, but the Oline injuries have and severe impact. hopefully, they are still limping into Michigan stadium this saturday.
October 11th, 2015 at 6:54 PM ^
Yeah, they have a lot of pretty good players, on par with the Big Ten second tier like Penn State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.
October 11th, 2015 at 7:17 PM ^
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October 11th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
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October 11th, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
October 11th, 2015 at 7:26 PM ^
Chesson also needs to get better at adjusting to the ball, especially deep throws. He has improved on shorter routes near the sticks, to his credit.
October 11th, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
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October 11th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^