Michigan Opens as 3 Point Favorite; Now 7

Submitted by alum96 on

Looks like the open line was 3  (column 1) and is up to 7ish (2nd column)

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

Cue the 'the point spread doesn't signify who is better and by how much but is set as a way to get bets on both teams'.

Since we are in playoffs watch (playoffs?!)

  • LSU opens 7.5 over Florida, down to 4.5
  • Alabama open 3 over A&M, up to 3.5
  • Stanford opens 4.5 over UCLA, up to 5
  • Iowa opens 3 over Northwestern, down to 2.5
  • Utah opens 7 over ASU, down to 6.5
  • OSU opens 21 (!!) over PSU, down to 17

So money coming in on UM and UF (and PSU) the most early.

stephenrjking

October 11th, 2015 at 4:17 PM ^

Did you see the ending? It was awful. And embarrassing.

The Wake coach, asked post game to explain the win, literally said the reason Wake won was because both teams tried to give it away, and: "They made one more mistake than us."

Blue2000

October 11th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^

-7 makes more sense.  -3 seems awfully low the way the two teams have been playing, and if it really did open that low, there is going to be a ton of early money on Michigan moving it up.  

BornInAA

October 11th, 2015 at 3:37 PM ^

I would take 7 all day. We will win by 14+.

MSU gives up 21 pts a game. I bet we score 35-45 points.

We give up 6 points a game. Even if they put 24 on us like Utah, we win by 11-22 points. 

 

 

 

Year of Revenge II

October 11th, 2015 at 4:43 PM ^

Love your confidence, but I believe the game will not be a stroll in the park.  

We have not been able to move the ball very well on tough, attacking defenses, including the one we saw at Utah.  

We do look to be an improved team since then offensively, but if you are betting, the best bet is that we will get MSU's best overall effort so far in this game.  They will look like a better team than they have all year.   

Glad we finally have them at home.

We need this game to reestablish our biggest kid on the block status---biggest game since OSU 2006.  

Newton Gimmick

October 11th, 2015 at 9:01 PM ^

MSU's D thrives on wreaking havoc, but they have been very beatable this year.  I think our conservative approach matches well with this.  If Calhoun gets in there, Rudock will eat it or throw it away -- no disastrous Devin Gardner plays. As of now, MSU's D is ranked 33rd in SRS nationally.  Northwestern, even after Saturday, is #2, and we scored 24 on their D.

As for the other side, I'll just say this.  Here are the defensive rankings of MSU's opponents this year:

Air Force #57

CMU #65

Rutgers #89

Purdue #108

WMU #113

Oregon #120

Michigan as of now is far and away the #1 defense.   Michigan is #1 in total OVERALL SRS as of now. By the same measure, the best team MSU has played this year is Oregon, ranked 75th(!).  I think MSU is in for a rude awakening -- I can't find another FBS team who has not yet played another team ranked in the Top 70.

 

 

snowcrash

October 11th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^

They throw better than anyone we've faced yet, but I don't think their OL can block our DL. They'll be lucky to get 10.

I don't think we'll just roll over their defense, though. It isn't anywhere near their usual standard, but it's better than any we've seen yet except Utah and Northwestern. I think we score 27-31 excluding any returns.

gwkrlghl

October 11th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^

but I'm not sold on Florida and it looks like Vegas is thinking similarly. They're getting a ton of credit (rightfully so) for thrashing Ole Miss but someone of their other games are:

31-24 over ECU

14-9 over Kentucky

28-27 over Tennessee

Not exactly running over opponents here. I suspect they'll finish 10-2 - still solid but not a playoff team

stephenrjking

October 11th, 2015 at 4:27 PM ^

ECU and Tennessee are pretty good; certainly better than Maryland or Oregon State. And they throttled Missouri on the road. By resume they look really good. And they, much like us, are visibly improving.

I really wanted to laugh at the McElwain hire but through half the season he has done virtually as well as Harbaugh. Credit where due.

Lanknows

October 11th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^

Anything else (i.e., an effort to reflect popular opinion) would eventually get hammered by big money pro gamblers.

I think the line will move higher than 7 by Saturday.

Muttley

October 11th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^

that will divide the bets 50/50.

Subsequently, the line moves with supply-and-demand as determined by many participants, often including those with inside information (understated injuries, etc.) who would back up the truck to load up on the bet if they thought the line was significantly off their insider-informed expected outcome.  Of course, there is some uncertainty in this, and it would be rather unusual for all market partipants to agree creating a static line.

It's very hard to beat a market with many such participants over time.  Thus, the line is usually as good a predictor as any.

Year of Revenge II

October 11th, 2015 at 5:20 PM ^

Best explanation I have heard in a while as to why and how the line is set, why it moves, and why it turns to be a pretty good predictor even though it is in no way an actual prediction other than the number that evenly splits the betting money (the handle).

Vegas does not "think", or do anything other than encourage you to make bets that when split, guarantees them a percentage return on the losing bets, with which they pay the winning bets, so that the percentage retained on the losing bets is their guaranteed profit.  

They are not gambling, you are.

Muttley

October 12th, 2015 at 1:18 AM ^

Utah won by 6.  Neither of these examples demonstrate anything.

Try

    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=statistical+tests+of+point+spreads+as+victory+marg…

From the first result:

    http://www.cs.cornell.edu/courses/cs6780/2010fa/projects/warner_cs6780…

Abstract



In this study we describe efforts to use machine learning to out-perform the expert Las Vegas line-makers at predicting the outcome of NFL football games. The statistical model we employ for inference is the Gaussian process, a powerful tool for supervised learning applications. With predictions for the margin of victory and associated confidence intervals from the Gaussian process model, we propose a simple framework which recommends a bet on a given game when it is deemed statistically favorable. The training dataset we consider in this study includes a wide variety of offensive and defensive NFL statistics from about 2,000 games between 2000 and 2009. We also explore the impact of including additional novel features previously unstudied: the temperature difference between competing team’s cities and a team’s computed strength according to [10]. We show that our predictions for margin of victory result in an error just 2% higher than that of the Las Vegas line and that we can successfully pick the game winner over 64% of the time. The bet-recommendation scheme we propose is shown to provide a win rate just under 51% but falls short of the mark of 52.4% needed to break even in the NFL gambling system.

superstringer

October 11th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^

It does NOT reflect a "best guess." It reflects a guess of where they thjnk the midpoint is of their betting customers. As the bets come in and thr weight of bets is uneven, they move the line. What they think will actually happen has nothing to do with it. They underdtand what Joe Q thunks will happen, and also what the pro gamblers are likely to thjnk, and that is what sets the line.




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Lanknows

October 11th, 2015 at 5:08 PM ^

It's the same thing.  Pro gamblers are good. Vegas is good. 

It's true that Vegas wants equal money on both sides, but the key qualifier is AT KICKOFF.  It's not true they're reacting to public sentiment and trying to constantly keep equal money on both sides. To get equal money by kickoff, they have to be proactive and anticipate the large bets that pros make.  In being proactive, they have to get it right.

The "Joe Q" money doesn't have NO impact, but it's a relatively small factor in the line setting.  People were arguing this about BYU (because their fanbase had few gamblers that they are systematically underrated by oddsmakers, yet their performance over the last 15 years showed no bias whatsoever.)

The get equal bets on both sides vegas tries to get the best "best guess" they can.  Otherwise they'll get hammered by pros. They have to be "right" or they will lose money.  So they try to be right.

Year of Revenge II

October 11th, 2015 at 5:35 PM ^

Dude, with all due respect, the only place that scenario is happening is in your own head. AT KICKOFF, or just before, is when the betting is closed.  Lines are set to equal out the money AT KICKOFF.  They could not care less who wins or loses, what you call "pro gamblers" or "Joe Q". 

They pay their customers' winning bets with those donated by the losers, and retain the extra 10% (in most cases) paid up front by all people making bets, with that retention on the losing side only.  The winners' extra 10% is refunded back to them along with the amount wagered, so in effect, Vegas makes a guaranteed 5% on the total amount wagered, regardless of result. 

Lines move to even up the handle (total money bet), but because the Vegas sharpies are so good at determining what number splits the money, it usually does not move much unless there is an injury, or something else that influences where the total money is flowing.

 

LSAClassOf2000

October 11th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^

I know Vegas wants to move money, but if you were using Sagarin as the line predictor - at least with the numbers put out today - you would see something that I don't think we've seen for a while anyway.

#3 - Michigan - 91.40

#39 Michigan State - 77.47

(91.40-77.47)+2.76 (HFA) = 16.69 in favor of Michigan

That would be nice to achieve.