Michigan opens as 12pt fav over NWestern
October 4th, 2015 at 4:15 PM ^
So the over/under is 12 then?
October 4th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 5:36 PM ^
The spread that will promote equal betting on each side of the coin? You know how lines work, right?
October 4th, 2015 at 6:41 PM ^
crazy thing is many people do not understand thats how books operate.
many games tend to end up accurate and on line but its a by product of attempting to draw equal action, balance the book and rake in the juice. who knows though, maybe i would not know either if i were not a degenerate
October 4th, 2015 at 8:05 PM ^
Yes, "Vegas" finds the market price for the spread.
If the market spread were consistently predictably wrong, there would be easy money to be made (over multiple plays). In most liquid markets, any knowledge of easy money to be made draws the smart money in volume to that side, which causes the market price to become the price at which there's no easy money to be made.
October 4th, 2015 at 9:20 PM ^
The movement is more important. This spread rapidly dropped by ~4 points; it's now more like 8 points. That means all the early money was on Northwestern. It's not a good sign, actually. But it's still a large spread and should be fine.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 10:01 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:39 PM ^
That's a lot. Granted, Fitzgerald's record in big games isn't the best but it's a bit of a slap in the face to NW.
October 4th, 2015 at 4:23 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 4:49 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 5:04 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 5:17 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 5:40 PM ^
Wish we had a team that has let up an average of 3.5 points over the last 4 games.
Your point stands about their defense, but I just like that statistic. Over out entire season, INCLUDING the loss, our defense is giving up 7 points per game. We are into the B1G season and averaging a TD a game against. That is just ridiculous.
October 4th, 2015 at 8:29 PM ^
the only team with a pulse scored 24 & won.
I'll become a believer after Sparty, and not one second before.
October 5th, 2015 at 6:58 AM ^
Because there's a case to be made that Northwestern is better than State this year.
October 5th, 2015 at 7:06 AM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 11:03 PM ^
I think are stats are more impressive. If we didn't have a pick six we would have less points per game and we are averaging I think around 60 yards less a game. We are also averaging less yards per play. Both extremely impressive but I say ours are a little bit more impressive.
October 4th, 2015 at 6:04 PM ^
NW went into the 4th Q up 10-3, ended up winning 16-6. Not sure you can call that "throttled". Hogan was terrible that game, anomaly for him as he's been 61/85 (72%) with 9 TDs, 1 INT in putting up an average of 42 points in the next 4 games.
I would like Stanford's chances vs. NW best out of 10.
October 4th, 2015 at 8:08 PM ^
Agreed. Stanford wins 7 or 8 out of 10 against Northwestern.
October 4th, 2015 at 9:48 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 9:37 PM ^
the BYU game! The spread was too large. NW will have problems against our D but I think we will have trouble against their D but Harbaugh will find a way for our offense to score points. I'm thinking UM 24 vs NW 13.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
Are you sure t12 is not the over under???
I find that surprising and it's a sign of lack of respect. It's bulletin board material. It puts a chip on their shoulder.
Oh wait, that's MSU.
This game feels like 17-9 type of game so I like those pts.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
So we're the favorite by 10-12 points but are ranked 5 slots behind in AP and 7 slots behind in Coaches Poll. What a homefield advantage!!!
October 4th, 2015 at 3:48 PM ^
You didn't know that Michigan has the best homefield advantage in all of CFB?
October 4th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 6:59 PM ^
Take up Sparty practice time.
October 4th, 2015 at 7:05 PM ^
Michigan keeps showing the jet sweep on film. At some point, they're going to run a transcontinental or a reverse off that look. Hopefully against Ohio State.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:49 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 5:41 PM ^
Sucker bet? Maybe they really like Michigan, then.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^
12pts seems very high. I bet that will bet down.
BTW speaking of Wolverines and teams from Chicago... Charles Woodson just got his 62nd career INT vs. the Bears...and then he pointed, said something and threw the ball up in to the stands to the Bears fans.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^
Sounds boring, but I will settle for it. Lets see if we can hold n opponent to exactly 105 yeards again for 3 straight weeks.
October 4th, 2015 at 5:42 PM ^
Boring? If we beat NW by a score of 28-0, I will literally strip naked and run around my city until police catch me. That would be amazing.
October 4th, 2015 at 6:29 PM ^
someone's wife just became a big NW fan
October 4th, 2015 at 5:46 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
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October 4th, 2015 at 3:54 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
That's a really odd line. Vegas has to know it's going to be bet way down.
October 4th, 2015 at 3:55 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
UM doesn't have the passing game to really open NU up and vice versa. It comes down to which QB makes the fewest mistakes. I'd like to think Rudock, but the guy has 5 INTs and two fumbles in 5 games. This is the key to the game in my opinion.
October 4th, 2015 at 4:24 PM ^
October 4th, 2015 at 4:52 PM ^
His stats generally are mediocre but he is a true freshman who will get better with time - had a good week vs Minn. But he is mobile . Sort of like the Oregon State QB. The "near miss" turnovers Rudock has made the past 2 weeks however will probably be real turnovers vs NW.
NW has a very good RB - stop him and they have to rely on a not good passing game. So key is to stop him and not do turnovers. NW has good special teams as well. These teams are very similar - built on defense and improved special teams with questionable offenses. Ours is less questionable but their running back is more established and proven.
October 4th, 2015 at 5:41 PM ^
This is Vegas thinking. Michigan's defense is, to this point, as good as any of us have seen since 2006 or 1997. They give up 100 total yards a week to P5 teams (not normal). NW running back is solid but not perceived as better than Hine from BYU, preseason, for example.
Thinking back to Vegas, Michigan gets 3 to 3.5 points as the home team and Vegas then added +9 as margin (thus the +12 line). This will probably get bet down to 8 or 9 by game time but it's difficult to bet against a defense playing that elite.