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Michigan offense actually better against stronger defenses

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November 28th, 2010 at 8:48 PM
#302
dothepose
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Joined: 12/30/2008
MGoPoints: 7480
But yet we lost by more

But yet we lost by more points against these teams. So who cares.

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November 28th, 2010 at 8:52 PM
(Reply to #2) #303
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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Well, sure, youth on offense

Well, sure, youth on offense will do that. That is exactly why I took yards gained and not offensive scoring. Using yards gained shows an offenses abiltiy to move the ball regardless of age, turnovers, etc...

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November 28th, 2010 at 8:54 PM
(Reply to #3) #304
Brady2Terrell
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See, the thing

about football is, though, that "offensive ability" is not independent of little things like "turnovers" and "age" - it's about putting points on the board.  A young team should have more variability (sometimes losing to crap teams, sometimes beating good ones) instead of being consistently outclassed by good teams and marginally defeating bad ones.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:01 PM
(Reply to #4) #305
nedved963
Joined: 08/17/2009
MGoPoints: 266
I like how you equate

I like how you equate offensive success to team success there. Didn't we put more points on wisconsin in a half than Michigan's put on them in a decade? Points or no points a young team will win when it has more points than the other team. Just a little football protip for you there.

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November 29th, 2010 at 1:16 AM
(Reply to #7) #306
HAIL-YEA
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Joined: 07/15/2009
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How much did

we score in the 1st half when it was still a game?

Our offense has tons of potential, but I dont care how many yards we racked up..we consistantly could not score against good teams.

Against MSU we blamed it on unlucky int's Against Iowa it was fumbles and int's. Against PSU more or the same. Wisconsine we did absolutly nothing in the 1st half. Against OSU it was fumbles. Bottom line we havent scored mre then 10 points in the 1st half in any of those games..I dont care if we score when were down by more then 3 touchdowns.. it's meaningless. Against EVERY physical team we played we went down like a 2 dollar whore. Nothing you say can change that.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:31 PM
(Reply to #3) #307
dothepose
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Is it the sign of a good

Isn't the sign of a good offense points scored? Moving the ball means nothing if your not in the endzone.

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November 29th, 2010 at 9:20 AM
(Reply to #6) #308
MGoCards
Joined: 12/12/2009
MGoPoints: 721
I'm not getting the rash of

I'm not getting the rash of "it doesn't matter" replies. Either the only statistic that matters is the W-L column or we can factor other knowledge, like that provided here, when gauging how good or bad a team is or how much progress has been achieved or whether the offense has "disappeared" when facing better defenses. All this "but they put up less points" junk is anti-intellectual and almost beside the point. We know. 'Kay? Moving the ball does mean something, if it's not the most important thing. 

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:05 PM
(Reply to #3) #309
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
 That is exactly why I took

 That is exactly why I took yards gained and not offensive scoring. Using yards gained shows an offenses abiltiy to move the ball regardless of age, turnovers, etc...

I don't follow.  Youth affects scoring but not yardage?  And isn't the goal of the game to outscore the other team?

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:29 PM
(Reply to #9) #310
bighouseinmate
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No, it affects them both......

.......but little things like the youthful mistakes killing drives prevents points from being scored. At times, against every team we've played this year, our offense moved the ball with ease, including against some very highly rated defenses. Looking back at the things that stopped many of those drives from scoring points, the mistakes seen from young players were more prominent than good defensive plays from the opposition. Case in point, the two first half drives against MSU that ended in endzone picks. Those throws were more a case of Denard forcing a throw to a wide open WR than the defensive player making a great play.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:37 PM
(Reply to #9) #311
2014
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Youth = inexperience

Inexperience = variability.

Variability is more likely to effect scoring than it is total offense.

Why? Because, in general, you need to string several plays together in order to score (unless you're Denard). You can have 5 positive plays in a row and then one negative play (turnover, missed field goal, etc.) and you don't score.

This pretty much sums up Michigan's season.

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November 29th, 2010 at 8:24 AM
(Reply to #73) #312
2014
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Logical

Not sophisticated at all. Just logic Jack. Good old fashioned logic.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:00 PM
#313
Fuzzy Dunlop
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So, the numbers

So, the numbers unsurprisingly show that we had less yards against better defenses.  What is the big surprise?  That the ratio of our yards against our opponents average is higher for better defenses than worse defenses?  I think you're really stretching.  Might want to step away from the stats for a second.

In any case, those numbers are certainly skewed by our performance against Illinois, and outlier even before you factor in the extra 75 yards we got in overtime.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:23 PM
(Reply to #5) #314
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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Illinois is actually the #40

Illinois is actually the #40 defense and the OT yards are not factored in. The top 3 defenses were OSU, Wisci, and Iowa.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:37 PM
(Reply to #17) #315
jmblue
Joined: 11/07/2008
MGoPoints: 56299
It's kind of hard to say that

It's kind of hard to say that our offense was "better" against those three teams than against the rest when we averaged 21 ppg in those three games and 38.8 in the other nine games. 

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:37 PM
(Reply to #24) #316
tpilews
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Sure, but those defense are

Sure, but those top 3 defenses are only giving up 16.4 points per game. The other nine are giving up 24.25 pts/game.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:42 PM
(Reply to #34) #317
Fuzzy Dunlop
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So against bottom 50 teams we

So against bottom 50 teams we scored 14.6 points per game more than our opponents' average, and against top 25 teams we scored 4.6 points per game more than our opponents' average.  Doesn't look as great if you look at numbers rather than percentages.

This is a clear case of cherrypicking stats in an effort to prove a preconceived point.  It's silly.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:47 PM
(Reply to #51) #318
chunkums
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That's why they are

That's why they are percentages.  Scoring 60 against a Bowling Green team that gives up 30 points a game is similar to scoring 28 against a Wisconsin team that gives up 14.  Points are harder to come by against these teams.  Pecentages are neat like that.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:59 PM
(Reply to #52) #319
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Joined: 09/22/2009
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Actually, no its not. 

Actually, no its not.  Scoring 30 points more than Bowling Green's average is not equivalent of scoring 14 points more than Wisconsin's.  Which is why no one other than the OP has used this metric (percentage of points scored versus respective opponents average) in assessing a team's performance in this way. 

I understand the concept of "percentages", but the percentages OP is using simply don't prove anything meaningful here.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:02 PM
(Reply to #56) #320
chunkums
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Apparently you do not

Apparently you do not understand percentages, regardless of what you say.  Scoring on Wisconsin is more difficult than scoring on Bowling Green, and if we're looking at exceeding averages, percentages are a good way to do it.  

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:49 PM
(Reply to #57) #321
Fuzzy Dunlop
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You're right, you understand

You're right, you understand percentages better than I do.  The fact that we scored 4.6 more points per game than opponents' average against top 25 defense, and 14.6 more points per game than opponents' average against other defenses, proves, in OP's word, that our "offense is actually better against stronger defenses" than weaker ones.  That I think these metrics (which no one else in the history of sports statistics have ever utilized) are not helpful shows that I don't understand percentages, fractions, or long divisions.

This is a half-assed (ie, 50% of the ass) analysis.

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November 29th, 2010 at 10:46 AM
(Reply to #63) #322
2014
2014's picture
Joined: 12/11/2009
MGoPoints: 2323
Agree, and disagree

Agree that OP's title is a stretch. But his math is sound. And it does tell us about the potential of this offense and it gives insight into what's wrong with it.

Disagree on your version of %'s. I'm assuming you grasp this, but the base is completely different for the 4.6 pts vs. 14.6 pts.

The problem I have with a straight pts. analysis is that it tells you WHAT the problem is but it tells you nothing of the WHY. That's where these "crazy metrics" come in handy. Some of us want to understand WHY before reacting to the WHAT...

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November 29th, 2010 at 10:51 AM
(Reply to #24) #323
Wolverine96
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Joined: 08/28/2008
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To bolster the point...

...we averaged 6.8 points in the first half of our games against MSU, Iowa, PSU, Wisconsin and OSU.  It's a lot easier to put up yards and points when the opposition is trying to not give up a big play.

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November 29th, 2010 at 11:22 AM
(Reply to #86) #324
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 2496
I don't think you can really

I don't think you can really say MSU was in a prevent defense when UM was gaining their yards. Denard and company were moving the ball quite well the first half. UM gained 263 yards the first half of that game and only came away with 10 points.

If Iowa was in prevent and not trying to give up a big play, they sure did a bad job of that. UM had 5 plays of 15 yards or more in the second half. UM still gained 200 yards of offense in the first half and had an INT and a missed FG. If you ask me, I just think UMs playcalling became more aggressive.

Same with OSU. UM gained 235 yards of offense in the first half on a defense that averaged 241 yards given up per game.

The Wisconsin game, yeah, that was an abomination.

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November 29th, 2010 at 11:49 AM
(Reply to #89) #325
Wolverine96
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Joined: 08/28/2008
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Points

What you are pointing out is not without merit, but as has been mentioned before the objective is to put points on the board.  It is sad that we are hanging our hats on the fact that we gained better than average yards against good defenses.  We didn't win the games or even come close losing by an average of 17 points in those five games.  Points and when they are scored are much more important than yards gained. 

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:16 PM
(Reply to #17) #326
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Joined: 09/22/2009
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Didn't say they were top 25. 

Didn't say they were top 25.  That just shows the numbers for the 50-25 defenses are skewed -- taking Illinois out of the equation, the ratio of our yards versus opponent's average is higher for bottom 50 teams than for teams 50-25, which undermines your point. 

In any case, the three groupings you chose are arbitrary (why not below 60, 40-60, 20-40, etc), as is the very idea of judging offensive performance by ratio of yards compared to opponents' average yards given up.  I just don't think this proves anything.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:35 PM
(Reply to #40) #327
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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So, you want me take take

So, you want me take take part of the equation out because UM had a strong day offensively? Should I also take the Iowa game out too? I might as well remove the Purdue game too because the rain effected both offenses.

Actually, if you take away UMs effect on Illinois' average they are at 309 yds/game, and would be the 14th ranked defense, so the top 25 section get skewed even more towards this offense being better against top defenses.

That change looks like this

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:38 PM
(Reply to #43) #328
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Joined: 09/22/2009
MGoPoints: 5687
Well, yes, outliers are

Well, yes, outliers are typically removed from the equation in statistical analyses.  Sure, take Purdue out too.  In any case, these numbers are just not statistically relevant, and even if they were don't prove anything.

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:02 AM
(Reply to #48) #329
PinballPete
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 928
Depends

Outliers are commonly removed from statistical analysis but  not typically removed. There is no widely accepted method to remove outliers. Usually they are so far outside the rest of the data that it is considered an error. To remove them just because they are outliers with such a small sample size is, what The Wire taught me is called, juking the stats.

I think the Illinois game is the only consideration in the extreme value vs outlier argument but it's probably extreme value given our offenses propensity to put up yards on anybody.

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:20 AM
(Reply to #48) #330
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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The Illinois game isn't as

The Illinois game isn't as much of an outlier as you are suggesting. UMs offense is gaining, on average for the season, at 147% of their opponents defense. The lllinois game is at 194%, while the MSU game is at 112%. Taking the "outliers" out, UM is still gaining at 154% on the top 25 group, 7% above the season average.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:03 PM
#331
mGrowOld
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Where are those straws?  I

Where are those straws?  I can stretch my hand out and almost reach them............

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:10 PM
#332
tlh908
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Joined: 09/25/2010
MGoPoints: 2667
You should took at turnovers

You should took at turnovers against top teams, becuase that is what killed us all year.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:10 PM
#333
swamyblue
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Joined: 11/01/2010
MGoPoints: 2168
I try to avoid acutals at all cost

I have an idea.  Let's trade our defense for an actual one.  Kidding!  No, not really but really...

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:16 PM
#334
twohooks
Joined: 01/21/2010
MGoPoints: 3725
You Are

What your record says you are.

-Bill Parcells

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:46 PM
(Reply to #12) #335
.ghost.
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Joined: 10/01/2009
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  “No matter how

 

“No matter how much you've won, no matter how many games, no matter how many championships, no matter how many Super Bowls, you're not winning now, so you stink.”

- Duane Charles Parcells

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November 29th, 2010 at 9:25 AM
(Reply to #12) #336
SysMark
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Charlie Weis said that also -

Charlie Weis said that also - sure he got it from Bill.  Unfortunately it didn't come with HC skills.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:16 PM
#337
Moe Greene
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Joined: 08/01/2008
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Interesting

Some empirical evidence. Kudos.

I'd hate to see the similar figs for the defense...

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:19 PM
#338
CompleteLunacy
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Joined: 11/13/2010
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My nomination

for worst. post. ever.

If this were remotely true, then we would have been winning against OSU after the first quarter.

If this were remotely true, we wouldn't have had 3 turnovers yesterday.

If this were remotely true, then even with our horrible defense no team would have gained greater than a 7 point lead on us at any given time this season.

If this were remotely true, we would have won at least one of those games against the good defenses, in spite of the putrid defense. Illinois doesn't count, their defense was exposed by us and was more "good" than "great" overall, and were just overrated at the point at which we played them.

I don't mean to be an asshole (probably too late tho), but people on this blog need to stop with the affinity towards stats. 90% of them are made up. And the other 10% contains many ways for people to pick and choose what they want to argue. While it was encouraging to see teh offense move at will in the first half yesterday, ultimately their demise was a distinct inability to score points in the red zone. That is a major issue. It's a good offense, but you can't exactly call them world beaters quite yet...just too inconsistent this season.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:27 PM
(Reply to #14) #339
CompleteLunacy
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What I forgot to say

I forgot the most important thing I wanted to say! Ultimately, we need to step back and look at the product. Stats are stats, each one means something but can only get you so far. You cannot cherry pick one and say with definitiveness what's "good" and "bad" about Michigan. You have to look at everything as a whole. And in general, if it doesn't pass the eyes test, then it's just not true (which it definitely doesn't...Michigan has looked much shakier on offense against the best defenses than the worse defenses, with the exception of Purdue but only because it was a rainy slopfest on real grass field)

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:51 PM
(Reply to #20) #340
tpilews
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Well, yeah, because you know,

Well, yeah, because you know, good defense are good at stopping good offenses. This is why it was broken down on an average and shown that over the course of the season, UMs offense has gained more yards and scored more points on the best defenses than they typically give up in a game. If UM can develop a good defense, this team could be sick.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:35 PM
(Reply to #31) #341
steviebrownforh...
Joined: 02/01/2009
MGoPoints: 3525
hmmm

you missed an important fact: your post doesn't agree with what he thinks, therefore it's the worst post ever.

hope that cleared up some confusion.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:55 PM
(Reply to #47) #342
CompleteLunacy
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Wow. I didn't say that at all.

But thank you for putting words in my mouth.

If you're going to evaluate the offense in such a manner, you need to look at everything, not just yards. You need to look at points scored, turnovers, drops, average starting field position...etc. etc. etc. The stats from the OP show that yes, Michigan has the ability to move at will against any defense. But that doesn't mean they've done any better  against the best defenses. What defines "better" anyway? The bottom line is the offense scored 7 points against a good defense, and while they looked good at times ultimately they failed when it matters the most.

And I think there is value in stepping back and actually evaluating the product on field in a subjective way rather than stats stats stats. 

Am I insane in thinking that way? Apparently, judging by all the negs I'm getting, I must be. 

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:26 AM
(Reply to #64) #343
tpilews
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Well, I have yards and

Well, I have yards and scoring done for you, I look forward to your analysis on turnovers, drops, starting position, special teams, etc, etc, etc. I'm so pumped.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:59 PM
(Reply to #20) #344
MCalibur
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Revelation of Revelations!

...Michigan has looked much shakier on offense against the best defenses than the worse defenses...

Wow, please tell me more. This statement can be made about every offense in the history of football; literally and without hyperbole.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:20 PM
#345
bluebyyou
Joined: 09/07/2009
MGoPoints: 10801
Our O averaged 20 PPG against

Our O averaged 20 PPG against OSU, MSU, Wiscy and Iowa. They had a total of 7 points against OSU and none in the second half.  Iowa and Wiscy controlled us in the first half.

If the numbers make you feel good, that's great, but enough is enough.  I care about one statistic - W's and L's.  Nothing else matters.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:21 PM
#346
chunkums
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Why come he posts something

Why come he posts something positive and gets yelled at?  Why come?

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:37 PM
(Reply to #16) #347
steviebrownforh...
Joined: 02/01/2009
MGoPoints: 3525
why come you don't have a tattoo?

why come... you don't have a tattoo?

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:54 PM
(Reply to #50) #348
Seth9
Joined: 04/01/2009
MGoPoints: 2381
UNSCANNABLE

Idiocracy was a great movie

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:27 PM
#349
chunkums
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I get it guys; you want

I get it guys; you want Harbaugh.  This is a perfectly understandable and reasonable desire, but insisting that the offense is not that good is just laughable.  Furthermore, refusing to believe that youth has anything to do with turnovers and the lack of scoring is laughable.  By all means, root for Harbaugh, but do it for the right reasons, and stop fooling yourselves.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:33 PM
(Reply to #18) #350
CompleteLunacy
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Good God no.

Who said that? I didn't. I never said the offense sucked. But we have to be honest about the things we say here. And when someone posts ONE stat and says "our offense is better against good defenses than bad defense", well I'm sorry but it's just not true.

Has nothing to do with Harbaugh. In fact, I think (tentatively) RR deserves the 4th year, because the offense has made such great strides. But we have to be honest with ourselves in the evaluation of the offense too. They've struggled against good defenses.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:43 PM
(Reply to #23) #351
chunkums
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This is completely fair, and

This is completely fair, and this is something I understand.  You are not one of the people with the sentiment, but there is definitely a sentiment that our offense is just not very good. 

In Big Ten play:

Wisconsin avg ppg allowed:  20.5        UM:  28

Iowa avg ppg allowed:  16.4              UM:  28

OSU avg ppg allowed:  13.3              UM:  7

 

UM exceeded the first two by a good amount, and while we didn't touch the OSU average, anybody who watched that game knows we left a LOT of points on the board which were either attributed to a lack of any kicking game, or straight up flukey TO's.

 

PS,  that was not me negging you.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:54 PM
(Reply to #27) #352
PhillipFulmersPants
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Joined: 01/06/2009
MGoPoints: 2140
Nothing fluky about

the TOs against OSU, in my opinion. Ball ripped away from Smith and Drob. Great pressure forced Tate into throwing a ball up for grabs and Howard made a nice play on it. 

 

 

 

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:06 AM
(Reply to #23) #353
CompleteLunacy
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Alright folks

I'm starting to lose faith in this blog. What did I say here that was so neg-worthy?  Because I disagree with the OP? Is there something wrong with having an opposing viewpoint?

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:13 AM
(Reply to #67) #354
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
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I think it has something to

I think it has something to do with your implied assertion that numbers and data aren't important and shouldn't be used.  We should just rely on our guts to tell us how good the O is.  This is how you are coming off to me, and it sounds outrageously ignorant.  You're coming off sounding like :  "I know you've got evidence and numbers and stuff, but my emotions tell me otherwise."

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:59 AM
(Reply to #69) #355
CompleteLunacy
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Well, ok

I guess I'm not saying it well then. I'm not implying stats are bad, and if I was then it was a misunderstanding. I'm just trying to say that they don't always tell the whole story.  Especially looking at one or two in isolation.

And in regards to the second statement (about my emotions telling me otherwise), there's more to the evaluation of football than pure numbers...I don't think that's emotions. Maybe I'm wrong. I am certainly no expert at football though, so perhaps I should refrain from saying those types of things.

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:14 AM
(Reply to #67) #356
OMG Shirtless
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Joined: 08/16/2009
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Just for starters:

"My nomination for worst. post. ever." will get you negged everytime.  Grow a pair and deal with it.  If you think it's the worst post ever, fine.  Don't whine about getting negged when you sound like an asshole, which you all but admitted you did.

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November 29th, 2010 at 1:05 AM
(Reply to #70) #357
CompleteLunacy
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Welp, I'm a horse's ass. Sorry then.

My attempt at wit and humor was clearly misguided. Consider that statement withdrawn.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:24 PM
(Reply to #18) #358
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Joined: 09/22/2009
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Umm, no one said anything

Umm, no one said anything about Harbaugh, and no one said the offense wasn't that good.  We said that the stats put forth by OP don't really prove anything meaningful.  Apparently we can't take issue with silly stats without being irrational ZOMG RICH ROD SUCKS haters?

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:34 PM
#359
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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Scoring Stats

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:26 PM
(Reply to #19) #360
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Again, take out the outlier

Again, take out the outlier Illinois numbers, and there's a steady decline.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:28 PM
(Reply to #42) #361
tpilews
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Illinois is not in the top

Illinois is not in the top group for scoring defense.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:40 PM
(Reply to #60) #362
Fuzzy Dunlop
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Yes, I know.  Take them out

Yes, I know.  Take them out of the middle group and there's a steady decline.

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:37 AM
(Reply to #62) #363
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
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Yes, there is a steady

Yes, there is a decline and as you have touched on a bit turnovers, starting position, youth/inexperience, etc. are all factors that effect an offenses ability to score. This is why I chose to use yards for my initial analysis. As the team matures those yards will turn to more scoring. The team is at a point where they don't respond well to adversity. When they overcome that, they won't just be able to move the ball on anyone, they'll be scoring at will.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:29 PM
#364
Irish
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Joined: 06/05/2009
MGoPoints: 3696
yards don't win you games,

yards don't win you games, points do.

In the last 7 games:
MSU: 24th Scoring Defense: UM (scored) 17 points - L
Iowa: 7th SD: UM 28 points - L (shut out of the first half)
Wisconsin: 29th SD: 28 points - L (shut out of the first half)
OSU: 3rd SD: 7 points - L

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:16 PM
(Reply to #21) #365
Zone Left
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Joined: 07/03/2008
MGoPoints: 16278
Congrats on beating USC.

Congrats on beating USC.  Could you hold a symposium for Big 10 fans and remind us what it feels like?

Also, the points thing is spot on and is a function of turnovers and the terrible field position the defense gave Michigan.

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:00 AM
(Reply to #21) #366
thethirdcoast
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Joined: 08/01/2008
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Exactly

As 3x Super Bowl winning coach Bill Belichick says:

"Stats are for losers. The final score is for winners."

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November 29th, 2010 at 12:10 AM
(Reply to #65) #367
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13664
That's great, but his teams

That's great, but his teams usually have good stats to go with the wins.

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November 29th, 2010 at 10:31 AM
(Reply to #21) #368
oldcityblue
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Joined: 04/07/2010
MGoPoints: 1763
Irish!

Good to see you again.

Your boys in SB made you proud vs USC.

Congrats!

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:31 PM
#369
Mitch Cumstein
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Joined: 10/02/2009
MGoPoints: 12905
Grasping

So essentially you were able to find a stat that shows that our offense didn't shit the bed against the best 5 teams we played this year.  OK, congratulations I guess.  I wish that translated into first half points.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:38 PM
#370
GoBlueMatt
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Joined: 02/21/2010
MGoPoints: 44
This is honestly one of the

This is honestly one of the most ridiculous posts I've ever seen on this blog. In games against "good" opponents (excluding Illinois, they are not good or even above-average) mIchigan has rounded up a grand total of 34 points in the first half against msu, iowa, psu, wisconsin, and ohio state. They accumulate yards when they are done by 3+ touchdowns (which they were in every one of these games at one point) and are forced to throw the ball in obvious passing situations. These useless statistics you posted mean absolutely nothing and if you think michigan has been better against good opponents we have not been watching the same team this year.  

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:42 PM
(Reply to #25) #371
chunkums
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Why is Illinois not even

Why is Illinois not even average?  Stop changing the story so it fits your preconceived notions.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:47 PM
(Reply to #28) #372
Mitch Cumstein
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Joined: 10/02/2009
MGoPoints: 12905
Ironic.

Stop changing the story so it fits your preconceived notions.

Isn't that exactly the premise of the OP's "statistical breakdown"?

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:51 PM
(Reply to #30) #373
chunkums
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Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13664
He's presenting alternative

He's presenting alternative information, not denying facts.  That Illinois team had outstanding games against OSU and MSU, two of the top offenses in the conference.  You can't say that's false.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:52 PM
(Reply to #30) #374
tpilews
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Joined: 10/17/2008
MGoPoints: 2496
What story am I changing?

What story am I changing?

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:39 PM
(Reply to #30) #375
2014
2014's picture
Joined: 12/11/2009
MGoPoints: 2323
The story behind the numbers

The point is that our offense is the football equivalent of the Jaguar. Looks great, hauls ass, lots of cool bells and whistles, but it breaks down way too much at the most inopportune times.

You either believe that another year under current management is going to work out the kinks in the system that causes it to break down (e.g. inexperience, bad luck, pressing to make up for the lack of a defense, pressing to make up for the lack of a kicking game, etc.), or you believe that our offense is inherently flawed and needs new management to fix it, or you believe it doesn't matter either way since RR is beyond redemption.

Regardless, these are statistically relevant data points that show the promise this offense has. They also directly point out that the offense isn't a BMW yet or it would be scoring on par with Oregon so clearly there are issues as well.

No need to be dicks and to call out the OP for good, relevant, data points. This board is looking more and more like Mlive by the day. A lot of people (maybe all of us) need to take a week or two off from this board and from Michigan football. I wonder what would happen if Brian just shut her down for a bit...

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:39 PM
#376
NateVolk
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Joined: 07/19/2010
MGoPoints: 5548
If they move adopt a

If they move adopt a new scoring system where you can cash in yards for points at a little plaza toll window behind the end zone, I'd support it. We'd be better than 7-5.

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November 28th, 2010 at 9:56 PM
#377
braylon8500
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Joined: 08/04/2009
MGoPoints: 85
I would be interested to get

I would be interested to get a comparison of how many possessions we got for these games. I would imagine they are higher than against the bad teams since the OSU/Wisconsin/Iowas scored on us more. That and what everyone else said... points.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:02 PM
#378
Communist Football
Communist Football's picture
Joined: 09/18/2010
MGoPoints: 5066
It's easy to be snarky

It's easy to be snarky about the difference between total offense (by yardage) and scoring offense.  If (and how big of an "if" that is is up to you to decide) we can cut down on the turnovers and get a Division I-A placekicker, we'll get that fixed.

It's easy to be snarky about the difference between scoring offense and wins. If (and how big of an "if" that is is up to you to decide) we can fix the defense, we'll get that fixed too.

The idea that people shouldn't post anything that highlights anything positive about Michigan football, because we just lost badly to Ohio State, is sad.  Just sad.  I get that misery loves company, but geez.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:03 PM
(Reply to #37) #379
chunkums
chunkums's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 13664
This times a million.

This times a million.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:05 PM
#380
UMxWolverines
UMxWolverines's picture
Joined: 03/01/2009
MGoPoints: 33485
Ok cool

Once the offense makes even less mistakes, (there has been less this year than the past two years though), and we get a top 25 defense, (yes top 25, no "at least mediocre", it has to be top 25), we will consistently get to BCS bowls.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:31 PM
#381
Greg McMurtry
Greg McMurtry's picture
Joined: 02/25/2009
MGoPoints: 17252
I'll say one thing

Find a kicker and things will be a lot different.  How many missed field goals did Michigan have this year?  Nine and 2 missed XPs.  How many times did they go for it on 4th down within field goal range, only to turn the ball over?  The answer is quite a bit.  How many touchbacks did Michigan have on a kickoff?  Seven and 3 kickoffs went out of bounds.  Those are sad stats that need vast improvement.

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November 28th, 2010 at 10:56 PM
#382
nazooq
Joined: 07/09/2009
MGoPoints: 1390
This is a simplistic and

This is a simplistic and misleading analysis.  How much of the game did the starters play against weak defenses?  How much more aggressive was the playcalling against strong defenses than weak?  How much more risky was the playcalling against strong defenses than weak?  Is the spike of turnovers against stronger defenses a function of youth or injury or playcalling that exceeded the capabilities of the players?

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:13 PM
(Reply to #55) #383
steviebrownforh...
Joined: 02/01/2009
MGoPoints: 3525
If I'm not mistaken...

RichRod normally puts his 2nd string offense in before the other team puts in their 2nd string defense.  I seem to remember Jeremy Jackson getting tackled by Chekwa (sic?)

Same with Wisconsin. If you think Beliema took his starters out before Rodriguez, you're on crack.

All the other questions in that jumble of a paragraph don't even make any sense, so I'll leave them alone.

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November 28th, 2010 at 11:35 PM
(Reply to #58) #384
Callahan
Callahan's picture
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 3399
Sorry, but this simply isn't

Sorry, but this simply isn't true. Jeremy Jackson and Jeron Stokes played a lot because Hemmingway and Odoms were both out and we often play four receivers at a time. We also rotate WRs a lot. It's not some indication that RR pulls starters. You'll know the starters are pulled when the QB leaves the game and he's not hurt.

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November 29th, 2010 at 1:20 AM
#385
HAIL-YEA
HAIL-YEA's picture
Joined: 07/15/2009
MGoPoints: 6482
How is our offense young?

We dont have a bunch of seniors, but our O does have adequate experience..you dont get to have 10 5th year seniorss every year. I would guess our offense is close to average as far as experience goes

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November 29th, 2010 at 2:03 AM
(Reply to #78) #386
MCalibur
MCalibur's picture
Joined: 07/16/2009
MGoPoints: 2670
I'll trade you a first year

I'll trade you a first year tight end / receiver / running back for a first year QB everyday of the week. The specific location of the inexperience matters...ah, fuck it.

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November 29th, 2010 at 10:54 AM
(Reply to #78) #387
2014
2014's picture
Joined: 12/11/2009
MGoPoints: 2323
Our offense is young too

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/different-look-importance-experience

Not as young as our D, but young compared to the elite teams.

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November 29th, 2010 at 10:54 AM
#388
cjpops
cjpops's picture
Joined: 09/01/2009
MGoPoints: 1945
Where is the Win/Loss column

Where is the Win/Loss column in this chart?

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